Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
November 05, 2002
POLITICS: More Predictions

This is implied below, but I'm also predicting Senate victories for Lamar! in Tennessee and Harkin in Iowa. I'm not so sure the GOP will take the Senate, just feeling my way race by race. Kaus is picking a good deal more chaos than I am, with defeats for incumbents Hutchinson, Allard, Cleland and Carnahan (I'm with him on the last one).

One thing that will be interesting in the results is how successful the GOP was in turning this into an election about taxes (well, except that the endangered Democrat incumbents mostly voted for Bush on the tax cut). I would never have predicted that taxes would be such a big issue, but if it was, the Democrats have nobody but themselves to blame for blocking votes on everything else; the votes everyone remembers from this Congress are the tax cut and the war, not shining moments for Democratic focus groups.

The GOP has, however, lost ground on taxes in one Senate race: New Jersey. Bob Torricelli was generally fairly favorable to at least some tax cuts, particularly capital gains. Lautenberg, assuming he wins, won't be. Also, on social and foreign policy issues, it's obviously a big loss to see Elizabeth Dole replace Jesse Helms, although of course Helms has his downsides as well.

Another thought: Mid-term elections are supposed to expose vulnerable incumbents who rode to office on the president's coattails - but Johnson, Landrieu and Cleland were all elected on Clinton's coattails in 1996.

If Cornyn loses by one vote, blame the Constitution for making Dick Cheney re-register in Wyoming.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:42 AM | Politics 2002-03 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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