Donald Luskin has a pair of interesting posts on the California energy crisis of 2001, the recent FERC report on same, and Paul Krugman’s misreading of both.
Month: March 2003
NOTES OF CAUTION
Conservative pundits have had a lot of fun with the media’s panic over the first whiff of grapshot in the present war. The refrain has been a series of wise remonstrances: war has ever been thus; nothing ever goes entirely according to plan; and, in any event, by any reasonable standard, we are succeeding faster and at more lopsided casualty rates than any military invasion of a country of anywhere near comparable size in history.
That’s all true, and I agree that — while there’s certainly plenty of good to say about some of the war coverage — the media is being ridiculous in a number of ways. But in determining whether this war was a good idea in the first place, the question of whether the war is going to involve the sacrifice of a substantial number of American lives and the wreaking of a substantial amount of damage on Iraq (including killing some Iraqi civilians) is not a ridiculous question. Why? There are a couple of reasons worth remembering, but one is that the advocates of war, myself included, explicitly argued and continue to argue that war is just here because the harm caused by war is outweighed by the harm in doing nothing. Obviously, if the harm caused by the war were to be much more substantial than people may have thought, they wouldn’t be crazy to rethink their positions.
There’s a corollary here for the other side of the domestic debate, though. We should also remember that every sign that Americans are flinching at the casualty reports is something that will help the enemy. The Baathists’ strategy is entirely premised on being bailed out if the American public turns against continuing the war. I’m not a fan of branding people unpartiotic simply for saying this war is a bad idea and will be costly, but you can’t just ignore that political opposition to the war is the critical element of the Iraqi regime’s strategy. The Republican Guard can’t save them; Tom Daschle, R.W. Apple and their British counterparts could, if things go a certain way. Critics of the war should, before they criticize, ask two questions:
1. What will be the result if we throw in the towel as a result of my criticism?
2. Will it be worse than continuing to fight?
If the answer to #2 is “yes,” that doesn’t mean no criticism, ever. There will be plenty of time for criticism after the war, especially with Bush up for re-election next year and a very high likelihood that the war will be over well before then even if it doesn’t go particularly well. The question during wartime is, who will be helped by this criticism? You can call me a McCarthyite for pointing this out, but the balance of rights and responsibilities in the area of free speech does change in wartime.
Unfortunately, most of the war’s critics have a rather unrealistic view of the balance of dangers here; I’d hazard a guess that many of them think #2 is so bad that nothing could be worse. But now that the war’s started, the cost of backing down has escalated tremendously. Remember, even from the beginning, there was an element of national face-saving (not Bush family face, but the nation’s) in refocusing on Saddam’s continued defiance of the U.S. after September 11. It was obvious that the U.S. could no longer to tolerate, smack in the middle of the Middle East, a nation that broke treaties with us, fired at our aircraft, spread anti-American propaganda, and generally gave us the finger, all while abusing everybody within reach of the regime and financing the region’s open sore on the West Bank. Even without WMD and without ties to international terror, there was a certain logic to confronting Saddam to make an example of him to people who “back the strong horse,” in bin Laden’s terms, and to those who expected Americans to fear conflict after the bad examples of the Iranian hostage crisis, Somalia, even our retreat from Beirut after Hezbollah opened a score with the United States Marine Corps that has yet to be settled. Maybe that justified the war by itself and maybe it didn’t, but it was always a subtext of the run-up to war, and one that I think is reflected in deep public support for the war as an anti-terror effort despite controversy over whether we had enough evidence to support a search warrant of the billionaire dictator’s palaces. If we turned back now without deposing the Iraqi regime, it’s not just a handful of Republicans who would permanently lose credibility; it’s the whole country, and all our enemies would be hugely emboldened.
Bearing those costs in mind, maybe the war’s critics can ask themselves: Is my criticism of the war plan now — before we’ve even seen the whole thing play out, or close to it — really necessary? If your goal is to stop the war with the defeat of America’s policy of regime change (which has been our national policy since 1998), and you’ve thought through everything that means, OK, go ahead, but be prepared for entirely fair criticism in response that you have chosen to advocate a policy of defeat for your nation at the hands of a bloody tyrant. But if your goal is to inflict political damage on the president for what you believe is his mishandling of this or that issue in the conduct of the war – please, please, can’t it wait?
WHO’S NEXT?
The Command Post has the latest on tough words from Colin Powell to Iran and Syria in a speech to AIPAC, from the Jerusalem Post. And here’s a revealing interview with Bashar Assad, from MEMRI. The Syrian regime is clearly one of the 8 rogue regimes that needed to be changed, one way or another, after September 11:
1. The Taliban
2. Saddam Hussein
3. North Korean Communists
4. The mullahs in Iran
5. Yasser Arafat
6. Assad and the Baathists in Syria
7. The Saudi Royal Family
8. Fidel Castro
THE FORGOTTEN ANGLOS
We’ve heard much these last few months from commentators about Jim Bennett’s “Anglosphere” concept: how the US, UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and to some extent Ireland and South Africa are bound together by a common language, common traditions of culture, government and the business climate. It seems to me that most of the formulations, though, have omitted one very important country that shares strong cultural bonds to the US in particular; that has a parliamentary democracy and similar legal system; that shares in the modern drive to an information-based economy; and where English is widely spoken (if not necessarily as a first language) and connections to English-speaking media, opinion and culture are deep and run in both directions: Israel.
Of course, the Israelis are hardly Anglo-Saxons, ethnically, but proponents of the concept have consistently stressed that it is common language and culture, not ethnicity, that unifies the Anglosphere and gives it the dynamism to incorporate immigrants of all colors. And the emotional bonds betwen Israel and Britain or Australia are, to put it mildly, not strong. But the core notions of the Anglosphere are the free flow of information — through mass media, the internet and personal interactions — and a common set of cultural experiences, both of which are plenty true of Israelis. In the world of opinion journalism, the ubiquity of Israeli pundits and columnists here — and vice versa — is an important indicator of ties between the US and Israel in a way we just don’t see with, say, Germany or France. Opinion polls and other popular measures in the US reflect this: Americans increasingly recognize in Israel a mirror image of ourselves, except more beleaguered and beset by hostile neighbors. (I suspect that history will show September 11 to be a watershed here, when Americans started to feel like Israel). As a result, the alliance with Israel, like that with the other Anglosphere nations, runs much thicker than temporary self-interests.
Box Scores
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. . . . box scores.
The Blue Jays’ ads
The Blue Jays’ ads calling for fans to boo Hideki Matsui are pretty tasteless, albeit all in good fun. But are they trying to create an excuse to boo that will distract from the possibility that they will boo the Star Spangled Banner?
2003 Pre-Season Predictions
OK, pre-season prediction time, before we’re underway in earnest. I’ll be brief:
AL EAST:
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays
The Musick of the Spheres shall not be interrupted. The Sox have the guns for a strong challenge to a Yankee team that will need to offset age and injury on the pitching staff with some serious production from newcomers Hideki Matsui and Jose Contreras. But the Yanks still have more depth, and the Red Sox are . . . well . . . the Red Sox.
AL CENTRAL:
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Indians
4. Royals
5. Tigers
This could be a hugely stratified division, with 2 or possibly 3 horrendous teams, and two well-matched contenders slugging it out for the 90-92 wins needed to win the division. The Twins have one advantage: with no real weak links in their rotation, they may be better suited than the Sox to just pulverize the weak sisters. Believe nothing good you hear about Kansas City pitchers until you see results.
AL WEST:
1. A’s
2. Mariners
3. Angels
4. Rangers
This division could be even tighter than in the past, and has no bad teams. The Rangers still lack quality pitching, the Angels are unlikely to be as injury-free as last season (Troy Glaus’ wrist injury is worrisome), and the Mariners could really show some age this year on Edgar, Moyer, and the bullpen. That leaves Oakland, although I’m once again suspicious of their offense (I suspect that Durazo won’t live up to the hype — he’s a great hitter but a huge injury risk).
WILD CARD: I’ll say Boston over the West contenders.
NL EAST:
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Mets
4. Marlins
5. Expos
Yes, the Braves have baseball’s best outfield, and they have Maddux and Smoltz and Cox and Mazzone. But I have little faith that the Mike Hampton Experiment will be a smashing success; this team has overcome a lot in the past, but the rotation anchors were always there. No longer. It may well have been time to let Glavine go, but they’ll be hard pressed to replace his and Millwood’s production, to say nothing of the trick of repeating last year’s bullpen miracle with another new cast.
If Millwood is healthy and anything like last year, he will add much-needed stability to the Phils, who have three other talented starters in Vincente Padilla, Randy Wolf & Brandon Duckworth (assuming Duckworth gets healthy). This team has big question marks — the bullpen is scary, and Marlon Byrd and Jimmy Rollins will be big variables –but the additions of Thome and Millwood makes them the favorite.
The Mets could also win the division if EVERYTHING breaks right — there are plenty of good old players here, any one of whom could recapture old glory once more. They could also collapse even further. More likely is that some guys bounce back and others don’t, and the team slogs in at 84 wins. The fact that David Cone is now the fourth starter is horrifying.
The Marlins just don’t have the hitting to keep up.
NL CENTRAL:
1. Cardinals
2. Cubs
3. Astros
4. Reds
5. Pirates
6. Brewers
The Cards are easily the class of this division. I am VERY high on the Cubs Prior-Wood combo (I’m more skeptical of Matt Clement sustaining his success). The Cubs, Astros and Reds are all somewhat similarly situated, athough Cincinnati’s pitching is suspect. I strongly suspect that Barry Larkin and Craig Biggio are both just about finished. The Brewers are just hopeless; the Pirates aren’t, but they’ve got a long way to go.
NL WEST:
1. Diamondbacks
2. Giants
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Rockies
Inertia. The D-Backs’ old pitchers and the Giants’ bats will keep them in the hunt (San Francisco’s additions of Alfonzo, Durham and Cruz should partly offset the losses of Dusty Baker and Jeff Kent). Much will still depend on Barry Bonds staying in the stratosphere; if Bonds bats .295/.595/.428 (his career averages), this team is toast. The Dodgers could improve if Kevin Brown stays healthy and is Kevin Brown again — certainly they’ve helped themselves by adding Fred McGriff to replace Karros — but I don’t see a division favorite, either in pitching depth or on offense.
WILD CARD: Oooh, tough. I’ll go with the Giants, although I’m courting danger by ignoring the Braves here.
No pre-season postseason picks; that’s a fool’s errand given the length of the current postseason.
Ralph Peters
Plenty of links to this elsewhere, but another reminder that one of this war’s must-read commentators is Ralph Peters, now writing in the NY Post.
Quote From the Front
Quote from the front: “Frankly, Marines only watch Fox News anyhow.”
Hegemonists For War
Note that Bush has recently received statements of support for the war from Wayne Gretzky, Tiger Woods & Lance Armstrong. (Of course, Armstrong is effectively a federal employee, given that his cycling team is sponsored by the US Postal Service; you have to love a guy who wears the USPS American Eagle logo while cycling across France).
My thesis? Each of these guys is used to being disliked for being totally dominant. Thus, they sympathize with the need for the US to go about its business no matter how many people hate us for our successes.
Roto 2003
So, last weekend I did my rotisserie draft. First, I should warn you that a draft conducted via chatroom is a disaster waiting to happen. Part of the problem was that we had a lot of people (myself included) who hadn’t used chat rooms before or hadn’t registered with AOL. Then, AOL didn’t work, so we all had to switch over to Yahoo!, which involved 12 guys (11 teams and the commissioner) turning on a dime to register with a new provider. The delays involved were substantial, and then people started getting randomly kicked out of the Yahoo! chat, until we switched back to AOL. The result was an auction much longer than the usual in-person auction.
Second, the draft went fast when it was moving, and we had 11 teams rather than 12, and I was unusually unprepared this year; you will see from the results that I made some obvious mistakes. If you find reading about other people’s Roto teams hopelessly boring — I don’t blame you — you can skip the rest of this post. But, for sake of full disclosure, here’s this year’s team (traditional Roto categories, AL-only, $260 budget):
Active Roster
C Toby Hall $11 (I probably overpaid, but AL catchers who can hit are rare)
C Miguel Olivo $2 (Oops, I missed the chance to get Victor Martinbez for $3)
1B Carlos Pena $11
3B Mark Teixeira $5 (Could be a real bargain, but doesn’t have a regular job assured)
CO David Ortiz $9 (I may have overestimated his playing time)
2B Brent Abernathy $4
SS Derek Jeter $33 (Paid too much, but if Jeter’s ever going to have another big year, this is it)
MI Carlos Guillen $5 (I jumped the bid up from 2 to 5 and got stuck. Bad bid)
OF Carlos Beltran $32 (Paid too much – I didn’t notice he was hurt)
OF Jack Cust $2
OF Carlos Lee $24 (Paid a little too much, but new plate patience could really pay off)
OF Hideki Matsui $22 (22 for Matsui’s a big risk)
OF Dustan Mohr $4
DH Ken Harvey $3 (Maybe a bargain; Harvey’s not that great, but he’ll play. Could be like the year I drafted Bob Hamelin as a rookie for $5)
P Bartolo Colon $23 (Risky; Colon’s plunging K rate scares me, but he’ll win a lot).
P Francisco Cordero $7 (Should close in Texas, but won’t until/unless Urbina implodes)
P Kelvim Escobar $16 (Will close to start the season, but will probably lose job at some point)
P Casey Fossum $8 (Shelled in spring training, but could be a good buy; good team and I like his K/BB rate)
P Tom Gordon $3 (I was going to tank saves, but wound up bargain hunting instead)
P Gil Meche $2
P Joel Pineiro $21 (Overpaid, but he’s good and has a good park)
P Johann Santana $9 (Could be a breakout, and someone in the rotation should break down to give him a shot)
P Mike Timlin $4 (Had a great 2002, and has fared well in committee bullpens in the past)
Reserves (You can tell I was concerned about my starting pitching).
Damian Rolls
John Halama
Mike Maroth
Doug Davis
Jeremy Affeldt
Steve Sparks
Tanyan Sturtze
Jon Stephens
Oscar Henriquez
Refreshers
A couple of refreshers: This Lileks column is worth re-reading for a reminder of who the bad guys are, and this Instapundit post is a useful reminder of why one man’s terrorist is not necessarily another man’s freedom fighter.
Big Changes Coming
Some big changes coming around here — watch for more to come, but activity on the blog and the Projo column may be relatively quiet for a few weeks in the interim.
A Familiar Pattern
David Pinto has an item from Edward Cossette at Bambino’s Curse noting that the emotional roller-coaster coverage of the war has followed a pattern familiar to anyone who’s followed the Boston media’s coverage of the Red Sox over the years.
OUT OF THE MOUTHS OF TYRANTS
Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, on relations between Syria and the United States: “On positions where interests meet, the Americans are well with us, but on positions where interests differ, they want us to go along with them and we do not.”
That’s our relationship with everybody, folks.
Atriosity
Left/liberal blogger Atrios calls American soldiers, including the 101st Airborne, “Morons” in this and the following post.
Talking Up The Enemy
Every time Bush talks about how tough the war with Iraq is, I keep thinking he sounds like Lou Holtz before the Notre Dame-Navy game.
Anarchists Are Coming To Town
Same Old Song
Prediction: the same people who are now saying “I told you that the Iraqis will make this fight tougher than we expected” will, when victory arrives, tell us that the Iraqi regime was so weak, outgunned and bound to collapse from within that we should never have considered it any kind of threat meriting war.
So remember what they say now.
On a related note: a search of the New York Times for the term “Vietnam” produces 99 results in the last week.
Dolphins
I have to say, one ordinarily doesn’t think of dolphins as being important to a war in the desert.
Extending The Unit
You have to like the Diamondbacks’ 2-year deal with Randy Johnson; with the possible exception of Barry Zito, Johnson’s as good a risk as there is among starting pitchers over the next two years. The really interesting question will be whether Johnson, now 39, can defy the odds to get the 76 more victories he needs for 300, which is a good 5 years’ work at least.
Tax Cut Cuts
Larry Kudlow thinks there’s no reason for tax-cutters to panic over the Senate’s vote slashing the “size” of the President’s tax cut package to $350 billion from $725 billion. This is all inside baseball type stuff, as he points out; there’s still plenty of time for the conference report to decide the ultimate fate of the tax cuts. A few thoughts:
+This should qualify for Kaus’ competition for sneaking a story out in the fog of war – the Dems get to vote for higher taxes while nobody’s looking.
+The vote was on the overall size of the package as measured by static revenue estimates — but that tells us very little about what the final package will look like. To my mind, the most important parts are that the package should accelerate whatever cuts are going through, and should cut dividend taxes to give the stock market a shot in the arm.
+The “static” revenue estimates are, of course, fraudulent, and everyone knows it, not least because they assume that nobody changes behavior in response to tax cuts (which is idiotic) but also because they rest on predictions of the unpredictable several years down the line. Unfortunately, that’s the only way Washington measures these things (what ever happened to the idea that a GOP Congress would change the scoring system? That’s far more important and far-reaching than most of the other things Congress does).
+This is partly a response to the House increasing the size of Bush’s proposal, which is also a negotiating position.
+It’d obviously be very good to totally eliminate the dividend tax, since a tax that’s repealed is much harder to restore than it is to raise a tax that’s been cut. But Bush was originally expected to propose just cutting it in half. Which gets to the strategic issue: yet again, Bush has shifted the terms of debate to whether he gets the whole tax cut package or just another big tax cut. Once again, the Democrats are reduced to wasting their fire on the boldest initiatives, and have to concede most of the ground Bush really wants.
But, of course, we know Bush isn’t that smart, right?
Ken Rosenthal on the Hated Yankees
Ken Rosenthal says the Hated Yankees won’t repeat, but he admits that he expects them almost certainly to make the playoffs, and as we all know, what happens in October can be unpredictable.
Axis
Axis? What axis?
UPDATE: I haven’t seen this reported anywhere else, so I’m not sure it’s really all that credible.
The Willing
We are not alone. (Link via Sergeant Stryker).
Lileks on the Beeb
Lileks on BBC war coverage:
“While driving around on Saturday, the Beeb ran a clip from a Brit spokesman describing a battle, then ran the Iraqi blabberjaw insisting that Iraqi forces were still engaged in battle, killing the enemy, and that the Loser Zionist Rumsfeld tongue should be accursed and struck with shoes, and we should all hope that monkeys defecate in his moustache, etc. Then came a guest from Warshington, and the presenter said �so who should we believe, then?� A charitable listener would ascribe the brief, stunned pause that followed to the natural lapse in transatlantic communications.”
Read the whole thing.
Where We Are Today
I have only limited patience with punditry at present; it is plenty hard enough just to find out what is happening out there, let alone figure out what it all means. Like the song says, theyr’ll be time enough for counting when the dealin’s done. That said, here are a few of my very un-expert thoughts:
*Those of us who advocated this war argued that the great mass of the Iraqi people would welcome us and gladly throw off their chains, and that at least very large parts of the Iraqi military would not fight. Events so far have neither confirmed nor denied this conclusively — certainly there have been many surrenders and there were warm welcomes in some of the liberated towns — but we should not be surprised that there are some bitter-enders who fight on, and perhaps some pockets of the civilan population that resent our coming. In any totalitarian system, there are those who benefit from the regime’s depradations, and who rightly fear the coming of the dawn. But the passage of time and opportunities for others to surrender should have a clarifying effect on our willingness to unleash immense violence on those who choose to fight on.
*I would very much not want to be in the shoes of those Iraqi armored columns that are rumored to be assembled to the southwest of Baghdad, unconcealed by mountainous terrain and unsheided by civilian populations. Barring a surrender, like Napoleon’s vaunted and battle-hardened Old Guard at Waterloo, they are likely to be shredded by artillery nearly to the last man. I wonder if they are essentially sitting-duck decoys designed to maneuver the Allied forces into fixed coordinates so as to prepare for a chemical or biological attack that will be unleashed on Allied and Iraqi positions alike.
*As far as war-fighting strategy, the world will very much be watching the approach to Baghdad; although American troops have proven highly effective in urban warfare (see Panama), nobody wants to have to resort to street fighting unless absolutely necessary, and Baghdad is a much larger city than Mogadishu or Panama City (I believe it is even larger than Stalingrad circa 1942-43).
*The apparent mistreatment of American POWs and the use of fake surrenders to ambush Allied troops only underscores the ridiculousness of the ‘Saddam can be deterred’ school of thought. Of course, a regime such as this will violate international norms — even those, like conventions on the treatment of POWs and the traditional rules of surrender, that are norms defined more by self-interest than by morals or high ideals — because it cares little for the consequences to its people. The Iraqi regime is willing to encourage such steps for two reasons:
1. It knows that the limits of U.S. reprisal are bounded by our own internal norms, regardless of how badly our enemies behave. We don’t use chemical weapons on civilian populations and would not do so even if the same was done to our civilians. The same applies to maltreating POWs.
2. We should expect that it is a critical element of any strategy by the Iraqi regime to make it more difficult and dangerous for Iraqi soldiers to surrender peacefully. Mass surrenders are the worst that can happen to the regime if it wants to go down in a blaze of glory and discredit the invading forces.
Tush Hour
I have to say that reports that “anti-war” protestors were holding up traffic in the evening rush hour (to say nothing of the rest of their antics). . . that just staggered me. I mean, nobody who has both a job and a family could ever consider doing such a thing. Keep hard-working people from their families? By definition, such a protest reveals its complete unfamiliarity with the lives of people who work for a living. Which is unsurprising. Of course, a lot of the protestors are just that — protestors, professional malcontents or mentally incurious college students, people whose interest in protesting far exceeds their concern for whatever it is they happen to be protesting for or against.
Maybe I’m overreacting here because I work long hours and would hate like hell to be prevented by these goons from seeing my children before their bedtime . . . but, well, I should be indignant. This is wrong. And it’s proof that the protests are basically just a way of lashing out at the whole world of jobs, families, and yes, responsibilities. The world of people who don’t take a dump in the street.
Crikey!
Seen at CVS tonight: ‘Croc Hunter’ Valentine’s Day cards (25 pack!), amazingly, still left over from Valentine’s Day. What were the odds of that?
Alan Schwartz on Talent
Alan Schwartz has a fun roundup of the high watermark in recent history for talent at each non-pitching position.
SADDAM DISARMED!
SADDAM DISARMED! (Link via Instapundit)
San Francisco
Crudale Overboard
The Cards have apparently sent Mike Crudale to the minors — the same Crudale who had a 1.88 ERA last season, allowing just 3 homers and 57 baserunners in 52.1 IP last year, while striking out 47 — on the basis of six bad innings of spring work. I haven’t seen Crudale pitch this spring, so maybe his mechanics are totally shot, but doesn’t that seem like an overreaction?
Saddamfocals
Apparently, we didn’t get Saddam last night, but we got his contact lenses.
Mariner Fifth Starter
Reboulet Works on Batting Skills
A few years ago somebody gave a “Most Boring Headline” award to a story captioned “Worthwhile Canadian Initiative.” This would have to be the baseball equivalent: “Orioles’ Reboulet Works on Batting Skills”
Forgotten Men
Two African-American cops are murdered on Staten Island, and Al Sharpton and friends, the supposed ‘champions’ of the community these cops came from, are silent. Tireless NYPD advocate Heather MacDonald has the story. (Link via Kaus).
Change Follows Rumsfeld Suggestion
Mark Steyn’s mantra for the post-September 11 world: Change Follows Rumsfeld Suggestion.
His People
Turns out that John Kerry embraced his Jewish heritage for the jokes.
Here’s The Flip
Rich Lowry has a great column on the trap the Democrats are walking into in North Korea, one they are constitutionally incapable of recognizing and from which the only escape is shameless flip-flopping and perhaps some very careful parsing of prior statements. Stuff like this keeps Tim Russert in business.
Can You Tell The Difference?
A friend who listens to Howard Stern wrote me this a few days ago:
Howard Stern had a contest where listeners had to call up and answer questions to win a prize. The questions? Howard would read a quote and the listener would have to guess whether it was from a terrorist or from a Hollywood celebrity. Outstanding stuff, and truly bashing the Hollywood fools. Just imagine this: Howard reads some quote extraordinarily critical of the US and predicting long-term demise of the US. Listener says “Terrorist!” Howard responds, “NO!!!……I’m sorry, that was a quote from Sean Penn!”
Priceless.
What To Do
Worried about terrorism at home? Click here for an explanation of all you need to know about homeland security.
Day One Buzzwords
Buzzwords of the night: “target of opportunity,” “package,” “shock and awe,” “decaptitation.” Tom Brokaw says the war in Iraq will be perhaps the most televised event in world history. (Gee Tom, there was this thing that happened in broad daylight in lower Manhattan about a year and a half ago — it was on all the news . . . )
Stark Raving Loony
With our troops in harm’s way, San Francisco Democrat Fortney ‘Pete’ Stark picks today to declare that any U.S. bombing in or around Baghdad would be “an act of extreme terrorism.”. I first saw this report early today and the online poll was running 49-48% in favor of Stark’s sentiments, but after a link from Drudge, it’s now 67-32 against.
Blair’s War Message
Finally, war. Time to rip the scab off — painful, but necessary. Tony Blair neatly explains why:
“Just consider the position we are asked to adopt. Those on the security council opposed to us say they want Saddam to disarm but will not countenance any new resolution that authorises force in the event of non-compliance. That is their position. No to any ultimatum; no to any resolution that stipulates that failure to comply will lead to military action.
So we must demand he disarm but relinquish any concept of a threat if he doesn’t. From December 1998 to December 2002, no UN inspector was allowed to inspect anything in Iraq. For four years, not a thing. What changed his mind? The threat of force. From December to January and then from January through to February, concessions were made. What changed his mind? The threat of force. And what makes him now issue invitations to the inspectors, discover documents he said he never had, produce evidence of weapons supposed to be non-existent, destroy missiles he said he would keep? The imminence of force. The only persuasive power to which he responds is 250,000 allied troops on his doorstep. And yet when that fact is so obvious that it is staring us in the face, we are told that any resolution that authorises force will be vetoed. Not just opposed. Vetoed. Blocked.”
“Looking back over 12 years, we have been victims of our own desire to placate the implacable, to persuade towards reason the utterly unreasonable, to hope that there was some genuine intent to do good in a regime whose mind is in fact evil. Now the very length of time counts against us. You’ve waited 12 years. Why not wait a little longer?”
“Our fault has not been impatience. The truth is our patience should have been exhausted weeks and months and years ago. Even now, when if the world united and gave him an ultimatum: comply or face forcible disarmament, he might just do it, the world hesitates and in that hesitation he senses the weakness and therefore continues to defy. What would any tyrannical regime possessing WMD think viewing the history of the world’s diplomatic dance with Saddam? That our capacity to pass firm resolutions is only matched by our feebleness in implementing them. That is why this indulgence has to stop. Because it is dangerous. It is dangerous if such regimes disbelieve us. Dangerous if they think they can use our weakness, our hesitation, even the natural urges of our democracy towards peace, against us. Dangerous because one day they will mistake our innate revulsion against war for permanent incapacity; when in fact, pushed to the limit, we will act. But then when we act, after years of pretence, the action will have to be harder, bigger, more total in its impact. Iraq is not the only regime with WMD. But back away now from this confrontation and future conflicts will be infinitely worse and more devastating.”
“11 September has changed the psychology of America. It should have changed the psychology of the world. Of course Iraq is not the only part of this threat. But it is the test of whether we treat the threat seriously.”
“To fall back into the lassitude of the last 12 years, to talk, to discuss, to debate but never act; to declare our will but not enforce it; to combine strong language with weak intentions, a worse outcome than never speaking at all. And then, when the threat returns from Iraq or elsewhere, who will believe us? What price our credibility with the next tyrant? No wonder Japan and South Korea, next to North Korea, has issued such strong statements of support.”
“What will Saddam feel? Strengthened beyond measure. What will the other states who tyrannise their people, the terrorists who threaten our existence, what will they take from that? That the will confronting them is decaying and feeble. Who will celebrate and who will weep? And if our plea is for America to work with others, to be good as well as powerful allies, will our retreat make them multilateralist? Or will it not rather be the biggest impulse to unilateralism there could ever be. And what of the UN and the future of Iraq and the Middle East peace plan, devoid of our influence, stripped of our insistence? This house wanted this decision. Well it has it. Those are the choices. And in this dilemma, no choice is perfect, no cause ideal.”
“Tell our allies that at the very moment of action, at the very moment when they need our determination that Britain faltered. I will not be party to such a course. This is not the time to falter. This is the time for this house, not just this government or indeed this prime minister, but for this house to give a lead, to show that we will stand up for what we know to be right, to show that we will confront the tyrannies and dictatorships and terrorists who put our way of life at risk, to show at the moment of decision that we have the courage to do the right thing.”
Read the whole thing.
Bubba Takes The Bronx
Not sure I understand how the Yankees trading Rondell White for Bubba Trammell makes sense for either team. Both are righthanded and coming off awful years; Trammell’s a bit younger and doesn’t have White’s notorious injury history; I believe White’s a bit better with the glove, and is generally a better hitter. Not a lot of difference, except that (1) White makes twice as much money and (2) Trammell has a club option for another year on his contract. Unless the Yankees are picking up part of the tab for White, I can’t see why the Pads gain from adding $2.5 million in salary for a guy who will need to have a good backup ready, and while I’ve always liked Trammell, he doesn’t bring anything new to the table. One result should be that Mondesi will be around in NY now at least until Matsui settles in and Juan Rivera gets his feet wet.
They Don’t Make ‘Em Like They Used To
Eat your heart out, Abner Doubleday: Baseball in ancient Egypt. (Link via Clutch Hits)
BASKETBALL: Watch For The Cross
Mike Francesa, on Mike & The Mad Dog yesterday, on the best candidate for a high seed getting upset: “Marquette, by Holy Cross.” Francesa calls Ralph Willard’s Crusaders “a pain in the butt to play.”
GO CROSS GO!
Helton
Maybe it’s just me, but this whole thing with Todd Helton’s back just does not sound that good.
Old Hat
It makes sense for Piazza to appeal the 5-game suspension for charging the mound against Guillermo Mota, especially since accepting the 5-day break later might at least give him some needed rest in May or June. But why does ESPN.com use a picture of Mota from the Expos with this story? The guy’s been with the Dodgers for over a year now.