Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
January 10, 2004
BASEBALL: Mets Up the Ante

NY Daily News reports the Mets have raised their offer to Vladimir Guerrero to $70 million over 5 years. For the record, I'm still very much in favor of this. (These guys should be happy too). Yes, Guerrero's back makes him a Juan Gone-sized risk. (Then again, Randy Johnson's bad back created the same risks when he signed in Arizona, and they did OK). Five years is absolutely as far out as I'd go with him. Yes, the Mets are in a rebuilding phase. But there are some risks worth taking no matter what stage your team is at, and Guerrero is one, a guy who's putting up Frank Robinson-type numbers and is right smack in the prime of his career.

Here's Guerrero's 'Established Performance Level' for 2001-03 (EPLs are explained here):

GABH2B3BHRRRBIBBKSBCSHPBSFGIDPAVGSLGOBP
136502164303318995706524127420.328.585.413

Pretty good, I'd say . . . yes, Guerrero has his flaws. He's error-prone: .959 career fielding percentage, terrible for an outfielder. He gives away way too many outs on the basepaths with GIDP and CS (a 63% career base thief, meaning it would be better if he never tried). He has horrendous plate discipline that's belied by his numbers; remember that a third of his walks are intentional, and that his low K rate is because he gets good wood on pitches most guys would get benched for swinging at. As long as he's healthy he'll get away with that, but if the back starts to go, the plate discipline could catch up to him in a hurry. But for all that, Guerrero is a legit superstar who's only missed time to injury once.

David Pinto notes that the Marlins have jumped into the bidding, and that the Dodgers could yet as well if they ever get their ownership straighened out. It's far from over yet. But the Mets are clearly a factor in the bidding.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 8:08 PM | Baseball 2004 | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Actually, it is over. The Angles got him.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 11, 2004 9:24 AM
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