Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
March 27, 2004
BASEBALL: More McGriff

Following up on my point the other day on Fred McGriff, the Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA forecast is pretty kind to McGriff, projecting out his weighted median forecast at .265/.472/.346, with a 60th percentile projection of .273/.486/.352. Those aren't great numbers, but they certainly suggest a guy who deserves a roster spot. Then there's his baseball-reference profile; consider the OPS+ figures at age 40 for the 10 most similar players at age 39:

Reggie Jackson - 116
Willie McCovey - 97
Willie Stargell - 130
Chili Davis - Retired
Tony Perez - 105
Ernie Banks - 52
Dave Winfield - 137
Harold Baines - 132
Dwight Evans - Retired
Eddie Murray - 87

Two retired guys and two disasters (Banks and Murray), yes, but also one guy who was still a contributor (Reggie) and three who were still smacking the ball (Stargell, Winfield, and Baines). But all this assumes that you're taking McGriff straight up, when in fact, like a lot of aging players, his value could be maximized by platooning him. The Crime Dog batted .275/.441/.365 last season against RHP, compared to a pitiable .194/.398/.219 against LHP. Over the past three seasons, his splits are .297/.532/.380 against RHP and .240/.431/.304 against LHP. That's where he could still have value.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:41 AM | Baseball 2004 | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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