Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
April 27, 2004
POLITICS: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

From the latest Rassmussen poll, from Oregon: "[r]egardless of who they will vote for, 49% of Oregon voters think Bush will be re-elected while 32% think Kerry will win." This is terrible news for Kerry if that gap holds in the major battlegrounds; a perception that the election is going to the incumbent can be deadly for a challenger.

Rasmussen also reports, in advance of the 2005 election, that New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey trails Bret Schundler [who McGreevey defeated in 2001] 46% to 39%. What's the over-under on when we see a John Fund column on this? I say maybe an item in today's Political Diary and a column as soon as he gets done with the Toomey/Specter race.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:41 AM | Politics 2004 | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

That's interesting about Kerry's numbers, but I'm not sure it means too much at this point. I'd suspect Clinton's numbers in 1992 at this point weren't that different. (Of course, Clinton was a much better candidate than Kerry.)

And I don't know that I'd put too much stock in those Jersey numbers - McGreevey did an excellent job ignoring Schundler's arguments and painting him as an extremist in 2001, and I think he'd pull it off again in a rematch. Against a more moderate Republican, McGreevey could have problems, though.

Posted by: Devin McCullen at April 27, 2004 9:37 AM
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