Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
October 27, 2004
POLITICS: Um, About Those Late-Breaking Undecideds . . .

Rasmussen has the goods:

Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin. This obviously includes some who decided to vote for anybody-but-Bush since 36% of voters made up their mind before the Democratic nominee was selected.

The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.

Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.

There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.

At the moment, 93% of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind and 89% of Kerry voters say the same. Our daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that just 2% of voters remain undecided at this time (many of whom may not vote).

Also, Powerline links to a great column by Ralph Peters about the 2004 election and its impact on the ground game in Iraq.

UPDATE: Hugh Hewitt points to a 51-47 Bush lead among the most-likely voters of all: the 9% of all respondents to an ABC poll who say they have already voted by absentee ballot or early voting. I cast my own absentee ballot for Bush on Friday, to free myself up to volunteer on Election Day.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:05 PM | Politics 2004 | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
Comments

I'd say this is "the goods" with five times your cited sample, in battleground states--and from a Republican pollster.

http://www.fabmac.com/FMA-2004-10-27-Battleground-Ballot.pdf

Let's all get out the vote

Posted by: hometeamloses at October 27, 2004 9:06 PM
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