Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
January 3, 2005
BASEBALL: Beane Counted

Jurgen at Some Calzone for Derek suggests that I could take a look at the incoming and outgoing A's (including prospect Dan Meyer, coming in to fill the Hudson/Mulder gap in the rotation) by Established Win Shares. He finds the A's losing 21 wins worth of Win Shares and gaining 20, measured by last year's numbers. How do things look from an EWSL view?

Leaving

PosPlayerEWSLAge
SPTHudson2029
SPMMulder1627
CDMiller1335
SPMRedman1031
OFJDye931
RPARhodes435
RPJLehr*127

Total: 73 Win Shares (24.333 wins)
Weighted Age: 30.43

Arriving

PosPlayerEWSLAge
CJKendall2131
INFKGinter929
OFCThomas*926
RPJCruz426
RPKCalero#430
SPDHaren#124
SPDMeyer023

Total: 48 Win Shares (16 wins)
Weighted Age: 29.06

# - Rated only on 2003 & 2004
* - Rated on 2004 alone

Note that Meyer doesn't figure in the weighted age because he has no established major league track record. It says here the A's have lost 8 wins worth of talent this offseason; that sounds about right. Jurgen is underestimating that because he's valuing Kendall and Ginter off of good years and Hudson and Rhodes off of weak ones.

That doesn't mean that's how it will play out on the field. Meyer could easily give the A's anywhere from 5 to 12 Win Shares worth of performance - although young pitchers are tricky - and Thomas' 9 Win Shares last season are a half-season's worth of performance. Haren should also get an opportunity, although just looking at his numbers the past two seasons at AAA and the major league level I'm not that impressed with his odds of making an immediate impact:

LevelIPERAH/9HR/9BB/9K/9
AAA173.24.359.641.302.189.59
MLB118.24.859.780.992.965.69

Haren could well be another good long-term prospect, I just don't see a guy who's going to jump into the rotation without some real growing pains.

Overall, the arrival of Kendall, the fact that Thomas looks like a guy who could be an immediate improvement over the oft-injured Dye, and the bullpen help the A's are getting should help soften the blow. But I don't think you can deny that the A's took a significant step backward this offseason.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:04 PM | Baseball 2005 | Comments (1) | TrackBack (2)
Comments

How do the deals affect them financially? I mean, those stats in a vacuum are one thing, but Beane operates in an environment where his constraints say he can't spend what he wants on players.

I would argue that Beane saw the writing on the wall that the team was entering a decline phase and is hoping to assemble the parts so that he minimizes this phase (possibly bottoming out this year?) and tries to move into a new(er) era.

Posted by: dcthrowback at January 4, 2005 11:14 AM
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