![]() |
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
May 18, 2005
WAR: The Saudi Insurgency
Christopher Hitchens (via Vodka), Megan McArdle and Tyler Cowen all ponder a New York Times article noting that the insurgency in Iraq isn't following any of the traditional patterns for an insurgency, in the sense of (1) trying to build popular support or (2) having a comprehensible set of goals or demands. Hitchens - whose column is a must read - notes the obvious: the "insurgents" are basically Zarqawi's organization and the former Ba'athists. Zarqawi's group is part of Al Qaeda and composed of non-Iraqis; their behavior is precisely in line with Al Qaeda's MO and stated ideology, and they are no more an Iraqi "insurgency" than Al Qaeda in the United States is an American insurgency: The Bin Laden and Zarqawi organizations, and their co-thinkers in other countries, have gone to great pains to announce, on several occasions, that they will win because they love death, while their enemies are so soft and degenerate that they prefer life. Are we supposed to think that they were just boasting when they said this? Their actions demonstrate it every day, and there are burned-out school buses and clinics and hospitals to prove it, as well as mosques . . . This point is underlined by a recent Washington Post analysis pointing out the high proportion of young Saudi jihadists in the "insurgency". These are reckless, frustrated young men, in their teens and early twenties, who desire martyrdom. Not only are they foreigners whose only interests are harming America and bringing death on themselves, but the fact that they have no plan or program for the future of Iraq is about as surprising as the idea that a 15-year-old boy who gets his girlfriend pregnant has no long term plan for fatherhood. Then there's the Ba'athists; Hitchens again: [W]hy would the "secular" former Baathists join in such theocratic mayhem? Let me see if I can guess. Leaving aside the formation of another well-named group - the Fedayeen Saddam - to perform state-sponsored jihad before the intervention, how did the Baath Party actually rule? Yes, it's coming back to me. By putting every Iraqi citizen in daily fear of his or her life, by random and capricious torture and murder, and by cynical divide-and-rule among Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. Does this remind you of anything? I can understand why people objected, early in the insurgency, to calling the perpetrators of a guerilla campaign that then had some modicum of popular support "terrorism," although the main motive for the objection was to deny any connection between Iraq and the larger war. At this point, however, it requires a fairly powerful desire to flee reality to keep treating these guys as anything but nihilistic, jihad-oriented terrorists. Comments
I guess it makes you pro-war types happy, but generalized platitudes about "the terrorists" in Iraq being psychotic Islamofascists smacks of a subconscious need to justify the unjustifiable reasoning behind the US occupying Iraq. The resistance is largely decentralised, localised and acephalous. According to the CIA, the average resistance fighter is a nationalist offended by the presence of coalition troops, and will generally have had direct or indirect experience of violence and maltreatment at the hands of US troops. Local cells operate largely independently of one another, although there are tacit agreements and there is often improvised cooperation. The resistance generally does not target civilians . The overwhelming bulk of attacks are directed at coalition troops, as drawn from various statistical studies. Its a horrific experience for anyone, troops and locals alike, to be subject to violent guerilla campaigns. And I suppose -- although I am not an expert and I don't think Christopher Hitchens or the blogger is either -- it could be said that Iraqi resistance is not following "traditional" development of an insurgency. There are myriad reasons for that possibility, although that kind of thing is always said about new insurgencies, see Vietnam, Morrocco, etc. The reality is that the conditions of the current occupation have created unyielding violence, and it looks less and less like that will end anytime soon. Posted by: adwred at May 20, 2005 12:53 PMThe resistance generally does not target civilians You're kidding, right? No attacks on Iraqi police recruits, on infrastructure, no car bombs in packed streets? C'mon. The reality is that the conditions of the current occupation have created unyielding violence, and it looks less and less like that will end anytime soon. Yeah, the Baathists never used random violence against civilians before we invaded. Zarqawi's camps were full of peaceful rug-weavers. Whatever. Nobody could be dumb enough to not realize that, if the insurgency ended tomorrow, the US would rapidly begin drawing down its troop presence in Iraq. Attacking the coalition to make the US leave is like putting something in the freezer to make it warmer. Posted by: The Crank at May 20, 2005 1:04 PMThe position of the insurgents in Iraq is laid out in drama-theoretic (rather than game) at the drama theory forum http://www.dilemmasgalore.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=56 A far better analysis of the situation, I'm sure you'll agree. It's particularly weird when people repeat the claim that "More generally, the insurgency does not appear to have put forward any program or unifying vision" What? The insurgents all want US forces to leave Iraq. They say so themselves, loud & clear. Posted by: Saul at June 4, 2005 8:22 AM
|