Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
July 15, 2005
BASEBALL: Brewing Success

Following yesterday's look at teams that have departed from their preseason EWSL numbers, I decided to take a look at the Brewers, who are #2 on the list of teams furthest from their EWSL, and first compared to their Pythagorean record thus far this season; EWSL is prorated to 88 games (through the Break):

C35Damian Miller450+1
1B28Lyle Overbay993-
2B30Junior Spivey52-2-3
SS22JJ Hardy73-1-4
3B29Russ Branyan364+3
RF30Geoff Jenkins771-
CF32Brady Clark4125+8
LF29Carlos Lee10169+6
C230Chad Moeller220-
INF29Wes Helms320-1
OF28Chris Magruder120+1
1225Bill Hall494+5
1335Jeff Cirilllo141+3
2B22Rickie Weeks--42+4
1B21Prince Fielder--21+2
OF23Dave Krynzel--0-10

WSAB is a measure of marginal Win Shares against the number expected of a replacement-level player with a similar amount of playing time. I included it here so you can see which guys are falling short of their EWSL due to poor quality play vs. lack of playing time. I included three players here (Weeks, Fielder and Krynzel) who I hadn't projected in the preseason but who have contributed. Of course, adding three extra players means the team should come in a bit ahead of its preseason numbers.

You can see a substantial improvement in the lineup, which only promises to get better as Hall, Weeks, Branyan and Cirillo (!) soak up the playing time previously given to the departed Spivey. Aside from Hall and Weeks, Brady Clark and Carlos Lee have been the big improvements, although in Lee's case I'm a little puzzled, as he's having your basic Carlos Lee season. I'm less optimistic that Clark can sustain quite this level - he's 32 and never played regularly until last year - but even so, he's been quite a find and should continue to help.

Now to the pitchers:

SP126Ben Sheets842-4
SP229Doug Davis562+1
SP326Chris Capuano184+7
SP428Victor Santos141+3
SP528Gary Glover2-1-3-3
CL26Michael Adams311-2
R235Ricky Bottalico121+1
R325Jeff Bennett2---2
R429Matt Wise142+3
R528Wes Obermuller221-
RP27Derrick Turnbow--64+6
RP32Julio Santana--20+2
RP31Tommy Phelps--10+1
RP24Jorge De La Rosa--10+1
SP29Tomo Ohka--10+1

The extra share for the pitchers is smaller, in large part because Ben Sheets has been hurt and because Gary Glover has underperformed some very low expectations. It's hard to see Victor Santos as part of the solution when he's 2-9, but he's pitched well. Capuano and Turnbow, the rookie closer, have been the big steps forward.

Check out Al Bethke's roundtable on the Brew Crew's first half for a more in-depth look.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:48 AM | Baseball 2005 | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Thanks for the plug, Crank.

Posted by: Al at July 18, 2005 10:31 PM
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