Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
March 20, 2006
BASEBALL: 2006 EWSL All-Stars

Continuing my pre-season romp through Established Win Shares Levels (explained here), using the new age adjustments set out here, I've assembled the top 15 players in baseball entering 2006 as ranked by age-adjusted EWSL, as well as by raw (non-adjusted) EWSL. First, the age-adjusted top 15, plus the tops at each position not represented in the top 15 (EWSL totals are rounded off).

#PLAYERAgePosTeamEWSL
1Albert Pujols261BCardinals43
2Miguel Cabrera231BMarlins32
3Alex Rodriguez303BYankees31
4Mark Teixera261BRangers31
5Adam Dunn261BReds29
6Manny Ramirez34LFRed Sox28
7David Wright233BMets27
8Derrek Lee301BCubs27
9Rafael Furcal28SSDodgers27
10Miguel Tejada30SSOrioles26
11Bobby Abreu32RFPhillies26
12Carl Crawford24LFDevil Rays26
13Vladimir Guerrero30RFAngels25
14Todd Helton321BRockies25
15David Ortiz30DHRed Sox25
-Joe Mauer23CTwins22
-Marcus Giles282BBraves24
-Carlos Zambrano25SPCubs23
-Johan Santana27SPTwins22
-Roger Clemens43SPHimself20
-Roy Oswalt28SPAstros20
-Dontrelle Willis24SPMarlins19
-Francisco Rodriguez24RPAngels15

In short, these are likely the best players in baseball as we enter 2006; with the injuries and age of Barry Bonds, I feel quite comfortable with the EWSL ranking of Pujols as baseball's best by a comfortable margin, although the age adjustment may overstate just a bit how far he stands ahead of the pack. I'm a little more skeptical of the ratings of Furcal and Crawford, but Furcal is obviously rated on his glove and Crawford is a solid established player just entering his prime years and likely to develop more patience and ability to drive the ball (he finished 2005 with a blazing September). Wright and Mauer are ranked only on 2004-05, so their ranking is a little inflated here in terms of what he has actually proven (the raw rankings are all three-year rankings). Note that the only team with two players in the top 15 is the Red Sox with Manny and Ortiz.

Now, the same list, except ranked by raw EWSL - in other words, the guys with the most real accomplishments entering the season, regardless of age. I went out to 16 here to avoid dropping a player solely on a rounding difference:

#PLAYERAgePosTeamEWSL
1Pujols261BCardinals37
2A. Rodriguez303BYankees32
3Gary Sheffield37RFYankees32
4Ramirez34LFRed Sox31
5Abreu32RFPhillies30
6Helton321BRockies29
7Brian Giles35RFPadres29
8Jim Edmonds36CFCardinals28
9D.Lee301BCubs28
10Tejada30SSOrioles27
11Texiera261BRangers27
12Michael Young29SSRangers26
13Guerrero30RFAngels26
14Ortiz30DHRed Sox26
15Carlos Delgado341BMets26
16Carlos Beltran29CFMets26
-Jorge Posada34CYankees21
-Jeff Kent382BDodgers25
-Santana27SPTwins23
-Clemens43SPHimself21
-Mark Buehrle27SPWhite Sox20
-C. Zambrano25SPCubs18
-Oswalt28SPAstros18
-Mariano Rivera36RPYankees18

No surprises here, especially not the fact that when you remove age from the picture you get a lot more guys on a handful of the same teams, and more Yankees in particular.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 5:30 PM | Baseball 2006 • | Baseball Studies | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

In some ways, Pujols is reminiscent of Lou Gehrig. A first baseman performing at an unheard of pace; with the exception of a side fielder doing even better.

The idea that someone can even be projected to produce a 40 win share season is extraordinary. Of course, we know Pujols is, but let's sit back and enjoy the talent. Hopefully, the NATURAL talent.

Albert, you are something else; I'm glad the rest of the country saw that insane homer in the playoffs.

Posted by: Daryl Rosenblatt at March 20, 2006 8:42 PM

Maybe I'm just letting fanhood cloud my judgment, but shouldn't Andruw at least be on the list somewhere? I know last year was above his career average hitting and RBI, but the defense is still there, and you had him rated at 24 headed into last year.

Posted by: Bob at March 21, 2006 12:59 AM

How come no CF in the top rankings? I thought every position not in the Top 15 would be covered?

Posted by: salvomania at March 21, 2006 7:45 AM

I love that you listed Clemens' team as "Himself". I'd say that will be true regardless of where he goes.

Posted by: Jeff A at March 21, 2006 6:03 PM

Well, Team Himself may add Soriano in a few days...

Posted by: Mark at March 21, 2006 8:27 PM

Crank, I read the explanation of EWSL from your link. As always I am amazed at the stuff you compile here, but do I understand correctly that these rating do not consider fielding at all?

Posted by: Dwilkers at March 24, 2006 6:50 AM

OK, sorry. Rereading I see it says it does take fielding into account - it justisn't demonstrated how that happens in the example formula.

So I take it that fielding enters at some point. I'll read the whole thing to see if I can get a better understanding of it.

Oh, I'll say it again, if Clemens plays this year he'll play for the Astros.

Posted by: Dwilkers at March 24, 2006 6:57 AM
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