Woo-Hoo-Hoo-oo, My My, Woo-Hoo-Hoo-oo

OK, let’s hear it: what song can you just not resist singing along to, however unwise it may be to do so? There’s a couple of them I can’t resist at least singing along to quietly, but I think #1 on that list is the Eagles’ “Already Gone”. Which I cannot sing, yet I am compelled to do so. And, I should add, singing along when it comes on your iPod makes you look twice as ridiculous. I also whistle along to pretty much all the sax parts of Springsteen songs, but whistling’s not quite as bad.
(On a separate subject, the only song I’ve tried my hand at at karaoke is Elvis’ “Burning Love” – surprisingly, alcohol was involed.)

Killing the King, Part II

As I noted before the last Mets-Braves series, if you shoot at the king, you better kill him. Last time, the Mets got a good first right to the Braves’ jaw, and then got the beating you get when you don’t knock out the bully on the first shot.
They’re learning; tonight, they took the second straight against Atlanta in Turner Field, stretching their division lead to 7 games, still longer than it was at this time in 1986. They face off again tomorrow and for another three games next weekend. The time to go for the jugular and put Atlanta in a hole it hasn’t seen since 1993 is now.

Referrers

Question for other bloggers: know where to get a good referrer log? I used to have a code at the bottom of each page that showed how much incoming traffic I got from every external source – with the unreliability of Technorati and the near-total demise of the trackback function, it had become my best resource for finding out who had linked to me, and by far the best way to track which links provided a lot of hits (Site Meter doesn’t connect traffic to particular pages to particular links). Unfortunately, that code – from a site called TrueFresco.org – has gone to a registration-required pay service (see here). Fair enough; I decided their service was worth paying for and signed up, sending via PayPal $17.95 to sign up. And: nothing. I can’t log in. They won’t answer my emails. Is it a scam, or just bad service? I have no idea. But I’d love to find a substitute, if anyone has a better idea.

Warpath

If there’s a #1 reason to be skeptical about the Indians this year, it’s that in 2005 they had three seriously subpar offensive players at positions that should have produced a lot of runs – Ben Broussard at first base, Casey Blake in right field, and Aaron Boone at third base – and haven’t replaced any of them. I noted this in my AL Central preview.
Through tonight’s 8-RBI rampage by Broussard, however, the two of the three who had hit well in 2004 – Broussard and Blake – were off to a torrid start, .407/.661/.444 for Broussard, .351/.527/.429 for Blake. That could be a good sign – these guys aren’t old, so they do still have the possibility of running off a year like 2004 again, and if they do that, the Cleveland lineup gets pretty scary. Plus, if one of them had to struggle out of the gate, best it be Boone, since in Andy Marte they already have an upgrade waiting in the wings. Of course, not everyone else in the Indians lineup is killing the ball yet – Ronnie Belliard’s been mediocre, and Jhonny Peralta and Jason Michaels are way off their previous paces. And it’s early yet; those hot starts could become a millstone if Broussard and Blake sink back to last year’s level in slow stages until it’s too late to do anything about them. But for now, it’s an encouraging start.

I Hate Barry Bonds

I really hate Barry Bonds. Well, Bonds’ game-tying, ninth-inning three-run homer off Billy Wagner pretty well answers why people still pitch around him in that situation. Though I still think there are too many situations where he gets walked.
UPDATE: Adding insult to injury, Armando Benitez gets out of a bases-loaded jam in the 10th.
SECOND UPDATE: Mets rally in the 11th and win! This is exactly the kind of game championship teams win, coming back after blowing a 3-run lead on the road on an error (by Wright) and a bomb in the ninth. Bonds flies out against Darren Oliver to end it.

All About Oil: A Short and Long-Term Energy Strategy

Gas prices are high, very high, and keep getting higher. The fact that they are still much lower, in inflation-adjusted terms, than they were in the late 1970s is not much solace to the average consumer suffering from sticker shock at the pump. We need a short- and medium-term strategy to lower prices of crude oil and retail gasoline and a long-term strategy to replace oil as the principal source of energy for transportation (there are already competitive alternatives for home heating and industrial production).
High crude oil prices in the world market and high retail gas prices in the United States are bad policy and bad politics for four main reasons:
1. Bad for the economy. People travel by car, and if gas prices go up they travel less. Goods travel by truck and by plane, and if gas prices and jet fuel prices go up that has a ripple effect on inflation throughout the economy. Overall, the high cost of oil and gas is a choke point that acts as a drag on economic activity.
2. Bad for consumers. Lots of people – indeed, the majority of American adults – drive cars and buy gas. High gas prices hit them in the pocketbook. Government doesn’t exist to solve every economic problem or every bite on the family wallet, but when the economy as a whole and lots of individual consumers are feeling a pinch from high gas prices, the government should at least take a look in the mirror and start by asking what it’s doing to exacerbate the problem.
3. Bad for national security. High crude oil prices mean lots of profits – not for oil companies that refine and market gasoline but for the owners of the oil as it comes out of the ground. Yes, that includes American and European oil companies and friendly powers like Iraq, Kuwait, Canada, Mexico and Norway. But it also includes an awful lot of governments that range from the unstable or semi-dysfunctional (Russia, Nigeria, Kazakhstan) to passive-aggressive hostile and subversive (Saudi Arabia) to openly hostile (Iran, Venezuela), and the stream of oil revenue – because it depends so little on the existence of free people and free markets – often winds up propping up despotic or corrupt regimes and financing terrorism, extremism and the development of weapons of mass destruction.
4. Bad politics. From a Republican perspective, people are upset at high gas prices, and with a Republican House, a Republican Senate, and a Republican president and vice-president who spent years working in the oil business, people are – fairly or unfairly – going to blame Republicans for high gas prices. In fact, the case has been made that President Bush’s approval rating is closely tied to gas prices (for a dissenting view, see Gerry Daly here).
The answer is not trumped-up investigations or tax hikes that cripple American oil companies while giving a free pass to the Iranians and the Venezuelans. The fact is, American oil companies aren’t even all that profitable compared to other industries, and really the last thing we want is punitive measures that just outsource even more of our energy production and make us more dependent on foreign concerns. The answer, instead, is doing something that will actually cut prices, now, and do something to put downward pressure on them for the foreseeable future.
So, how do we solve the problem? I don’t have all the answers. But a few things seem obvious.

Continue reading All About Oil: A Short and Long-Term Energy Strategy

Mad About Maddux

MetsBlog repeats a thinly-sourced rumor that the Mets might be interested in Greg Maddux, whose contract is up at the end of this year. I was actually thinking before the season that Maddux might be a good target – given his age and slowly declining performance, he seemed like a potential cheap acquisition who could shore up the back end of the rotation, never gets hurt, throws strikes, and would benefit from getting out of Wrigley. And I’d still be interested in getting him cheap, with cheap being defined to include people like Zambrano or maybe even Victor Diaz, who I like but is certainly expendable. The problems:
1. Now that Maddux has a 0.99 ERA, he won’t be cheap and will probably attract other bidders.
2. No, it’s not a good idea to trade real, substantial prospects for a 40-year-old control pitcher in his walk year.
3. You won’t get Maddux from the Cubs, who are painfully short on starting pitching, unless and until they are out of the race.
If the Cubs fall out of contention I do expect there to be bidding for Maddux, but the Mets should continue to regard him mainly as a potential bargain, and avoid him if he gets out of that price range.

Run, Don’t Walk

The Mets this season have drawn 48 walks in 652 at bats, tied with the Cubs for last in the NL and ahead of only the Blue Jays, Royals and Angels. The chief culprits are the middle infielders and the right fielders: Jose Reyes has drawn 5 walks in 82 at bats for a .276 OBP in the leadoff role, Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz have drawn 3 walks in 82 at bats, and Anderson Hernandez, Kaz Matsui, Chris Woodward and the re-animated corpse of Jose Valentin have drawn a combined 1 walk in 99 at bats, for a .282 OBP. Cliff Floyd and Paul LoDuca haven’t helped, drawing a combined 9 walks in 116 at bats, nor has the injury to Carlos Beltran helped; Beltran was leading the team with 10 walks, but Endy Chavez has drawn just 2 in 32 at bats. It’s more forgivable for a hot hitter to be more aggressive, as has been true of Nady as well as David Wright and Carlos Delgado, who have both been drawing fewer walks than their usual share. But unless this team learns to take free passes, the offense is yet again going to sputter for lack of baserunners.

Van Taylor

If you’re interested, as I am, in keeping a Republican majority in Congress (even with the inevitable disappointments that entails), you may want to chip in to RedState’s campaign to raise funds for Van Taylor, an Iraq War vet running as a GOP challenger in a Texas district that went 70% for Bush in 2004:
Image
More here and here.
UPDATE: The 17th District isn’t just figuratively Bush Country – it actually includes the President’s own Crawford ranch.

Off To The Races

Offense is definitely up, at least in the AL, where the league ERA is 4.91. I looked at the Hardball Times’ ranking of AL pitchers by “xFIP,” a defense-independent pitching metric that basically looks at a pitcher’s expected ERA based on K, BB, groundball/flyball ratio and percentage of batted balls that are line drives. Among pitchers who would qualify for the ERA title, only two AL pitchers – even this early in the season when sample sizes are small and fluke performances are still the rule – have an xFIP below 4.24, those being Roy Halladay and the apparently struggling Felix Hernandez, with Chien-Ming Wang ranking third. (The NL, by contrast, has nine guys below 4.00). Note also that Brian Bannister’s xFIP is 6.90, an indication – as if one were needed – that Bannister’s run of success isn’t going to last very long if he keeps walking more guys than he strikes out and keeps pitching with the bases loaded.

Similar But Different

PLAYER G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB K AVG SLG OBP
A 28 72 13 0 0 6 13 12 20 24 .181 .431 .359
B 29 77 20 4 0 6 16 12 29 10 .260 .545 .462

Player A: Babe Ruth, age 40. Player B: Barry Bonds, age 40-41 combined. Bonds has a bit more left in his gas tank after the injuries than Ruth did, and he may yet show us he has a lot more. But for now he does look to be at a similar stage in his career in terms of the decay in his legs. Most of the power numbers from that line are last season (he just homered for the first time this weekend) – if Bonds doesn’t start showing that same power this season, eventually people will start pitching to him again.

Now That’s A Slump

Entering Saturday’s action, Oakland first baseman Dan Johnson was batting .146 in 144 at bats dating back to August 31 – only one player in baseball, Pedro Feliz, was within 50 points of Johnson on that score in 150 or more plate appearances. Johnson rapped out three hits on Saturday before hanging another oh-fer on Sunday; it remains to be seen whether he can pull out of the slump in time to save his job. The A’s are patient, but there are limits even to their patience.

The General Interest

Taranto points us to this essay by Michael Tomasky in the American Prospect returning yet again to the question of What Do The Democrats Stand For? Tomasky argues – correctly – that the Dems have become increasingly effective as an opposition party, but that when it comes to retaking a majority:

What the Democrats still don’t have is a philosophy, a big idea that unites their proposals and converts them from a hodgepodge of narrow and specific fixes into a vision for society. Indeed, the party and the constellation of interests around it don’t even think in philosophical terms and haven’t for quite some time. There’s a reason for this: They’ve all been trained to believe – by the media, by their pollsters – that their philosophy is an electoral loser.

This is old hat by now, even from Tomasky, but this time he offers up a solution:

[New Deal and Great Society] liberalism was built around the idea — the philosophical principle — that citizens should be called upon to look beyond their own self-interest and work for a greater common interest.
This, historically, is the moral basis of liberal governance — not justice, not equality, not rights, not diversity, not government, and not even prosperity or opportunity. Liberal governance is about demanding of citizens that they balance self-interest with common interest. Any rank-and-file liberal is a liberal because she or he somehow or another, through reading or experience or both, came to believe in this principle. And every leading Democrat became a Democrat because on some level, she or he believes this, too.

Leave aside for now the correctness of this characterization of the New Deal and Tomasky’s arguments about where and when the Democrats lost their connection with the common good and the general interest, and how Ronald Reagan appropriated that theme for the GOP. I’m not that familiar with Tomasky’s writings in general, but he does make a good faith effort, as New Republic neoliberals like Peter Beinart and Mickey Kaus and Andrew Sullivan have been doing for years, to get to the heart of what is most reactionary and illiberal about today’s Democrats, and his essay is worthy of reading at length. But the simple fact is that placing the general interest above special interests runs so completely contrary to the core of how today’s Democratic Party operates that suggesting that the Democrats become champions of the general interest seems like a crude parody of the party. Tomasky gravely underestimates the difficulty of breaking the habit of casting issue after issue in terms of how it affects the concrete interests of particular subgroups of voters. A quick tour of issues vital to bedrock Democratic constituencies only underlines this:

Continue reading The General Interest

Quick Links 4/24/06

*Bush’s approval and disapproval ratings explained.
*The Weekly Standard has a hilarious account of disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his role in the making of the Dolph Lundgren action flick “Red Scorpion”. Via Volokh.
*Amy Langfield has pictures of and from the new Seven World Trade center; the fifth from the bottom is strongly reminiscent of the view from my office in 1 WTC back when I was on the 58th floor. Via Welch.

2006 NL Central EWSL Report

Yes, as always, the six-team NL Central is last in line in my division-by-division previews using Established Win Shares Levels; having just put the finishing touches on this one, I should finally have a little more flexibility back in the blog.
EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2006 revisions to the age adjustment are discussed here. Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers are in my AL East preview here.
St. Louis Cardinals
Raw EWSL: 239.67 (80 W)
Adjusted: 254.53 (85 W)
Age-Adj.: 237.00 (79 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 23 Yadier Molina# 8 14
1B 26 Albert Pujols 37 43
2B 29 Aaron Miles# 8 9
SS 31 David Eckstein 18 14
3B 31 Scott Rolen 19 15
RF 30 Juan Encarnacion 16 15
CF 36 Jim Edmonds 28 22
LF 36 So Taguchi 9 7
C2 34 Gary Bennett 4 4
INF 26 Hector Luna# 4 5
OF 26 Skip Schumaker+ 0 6
12 33 Scott Speizio 3 3
13 28 John Rodriguez* 3 5
SP1 31 Chris Carpenter 14 11
SP2 28 Mark Mulder 14 16
SP3 27 Jason Marquis 11 10
SP4 31 Jeff Suppan 11 9
SP5 29 Sidney Ponson 5 4
RP1 33 Jason Isringhausen 11 8
RP2 31 Braden Looper 8 7
RP3 36 Ricardo Rincon 3 3
RP4 30 Randy Flores 2 2
RP5 24 Brad Thompson* 3 6

Larry Bigbie, originally part of the outfield mix, is still injured. Overall, the Cards are a lot less fearsome than they were a year or two ago, with holes having sprung in the lineup at several points (outfield corners, second base, catcher) and continuing question marks on the health of Scott Rolen (who looks 100% so far this year, in which case he’ll easily bypass his EWSL of 15) and the age of Jim Edmonds. Chris Carpenter, like Rolen, will likely exceed his established level if he breaks with his history and manages another full healthy season. Pujols remains this team’s backbone, but the more the Cards are Pujols rather than Pujols-Edmonds-Rolen, the more trouble they’ll be in.
One of the imponderables in St. Louis, though more as an analytical and Roto issue than as an effect on the W/L column, is how friendly or unfriendly the new ballpark will be to hitters over a full season.
Chicago Cubs
Raw EWSL: 219.17 (73 W)
Adjusted: 240.17 (80 W)
Age-Adj.: 236.80 (79 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 29 Michael Barrett 15 14
1B 30 Derrek Lee 28 27
2B 33 Todd Walker 14 12
SS 23 Ronny Cedeno+ 1 12
3B 28 Aramis Ramirez 20 21
RF 31 Jacque Jones 14 11
CF 28 Juan Pierre 18 20
LF 24 Matt Murton* 2 5
C2 34 Henry Blanco 5 4
INF 30 Jerry Hairston 8 8
OF 35 John Mabry 5 3
12 33 Neifi Perez 10 8
13 26 Freddy Bynum+ 0 6
SP1 25 Carlos Zambrano 18 23
SP2 40 Greg Maddux 11 11
SP3 31 Glendon Rusch 6 5
SP4 25 Mark Prior 12 15
SP5 24 Jerome Williams 7 7
RP1 29 Ryan Dempster 7 6
RP2 32 Bobby Howry 7 5
RP3 28 Will Ohman* 2 4
RP4 30 Scott Williamson 3 2
RP5 29 Kerry Wood 8 7

I was frankly stunned that the Cubs rate just a hair behind the Cardinals. Of course, that’s ranking Prior and Wood as if they will be at least as healthy as in the last three seasons, when they haven’t pitched yet, and Derrek Lee going down for six weeks puts them in a big hole. Also, I suspect that, as was true in Colorado, Juan Pierre will be less valuable in a park where the home run ball plays a bigger role and runs are not as scarce as in Florida. On the other hand, Matt Murton gets short changed here, and there’s always the possibility that a healthy Wade Miller could be useful. Right now, Sean Marshall is holding down the other rotation spot. I’m not sure what options the Cubs have at first in Lee’s absence – playing Mabry every day can’t be pretty, but I’m not sure if there’s someone else who can move over there to get Hairston in the lineup. Maybe Michael Restovich can play first?
Milwaukee Brewers
Raw EWSL: 177.33 (59 W)
Adjusted: 207.13 (69 W)
Age-Adj.: 199.47 (66 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 36 Damian Miller 11 8
1B 22 Prince Fielder+ 1 12
2B 23 Rickie Weeks* 5 13
SS 23 JJ Hardy* 6 15
3B 33 Corey Koskie 11 10
RF 31 Geoff Jenkins 18 14
CF 33 Brady Clark 17 14
LF 30 Carlos Lee 22 21
C2 31 Chad Moeller 3 2
INF 26 Bill Hall 12 14
OF 26 Gabe Gross# 2 2
12 36 Jeff Cirillo 4 3
13 24 Corey Hart+ 0 6
SP1 27 Ben Sheets 14 13
SP2 30 Doug Davis 12 9
SP3 27 Chris Capuano 8 7
SP4 30 Tomo Ohka 8 7
SP5 26 David Bush# 6 7
RP1 28 Derrick Turnbow 9 10
RP2 30 Matt Wise 5 4
RP3 31 Danny Kolb 5 4
RP4 28 Justin Lehr# 2 2
RP5 25 Jorge de la Rosa* 1 2

Ex-closer Mike Adams and the injured Rick Helling are also in the pitching mix. I expect more than 25 Win Shares from Fielder and Weeks, although my enthusiasm has been tempered somewhat whenever I watch Weeks attempt to play second base. Anyway, if those guys are undervalued a bit here, it’s offset by Bill Hall being valued as if he was playing everyday.
The future for Ben Sheets is now, but can he get healthy and back up to full strength? Actually, Sheets is an oddity on this team – along with Lee – being in his prime. The Brewers are mainly built on two groups of players – the very young infielders and a bunch of late bloomer scrap-heap pickups (Turnbow, Davis, Capuano, Wise, Clark, Ohka). The downside is that, like the Cooper/Oglivie/Thomas Brewers, these guys will get old far faster than you expect, so Milwaukee’s window of opportunity may be narrower than it looks. I expect the Brewers to stay in contention all year, despite their early struggles scoring runs.
Houston Astros
Raw EWSL: 205.83 (69 W)
Adjusted: 217.97 (73 W)
Age-Adj.: 196.82 (66 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 37 Brad Ausmus 12 8
1B 30 Lance Berkman 25 24
2B 40 Craig Biggio 18 8
SS 29 Adam Everett 13 12
3B 30 Morgan Ensberg 19 19
RF 29 Jason Lane# 9 10
CF 24 Willy Taveras* 7 17
LF 31 Preston Wilson 11 9
C2 28 Eric Munson 4 5
INF 26 Chris Burke* 3 7
OF 37 Orlando Palmeiro 5 4
12 30 Mike Lamb 7 7
13 28 Eric Bruntlett 2 3
SP1 28 Roy Oswalt 18 20
SP2 34 Andy Pettitte 15 11
SP3 28 Brandon Backe 5 6
SP4 27 Wandy Rodriguez* 1 2
SP5 26 Ezequiel Astacio* 0 0
RP1 29 Brad Lidge 15 13
RP2 28 Dan Wheeler 7 7
RP3 29 Mike Gallo 2 2
RP4 27 Chad Qualls 5 4
RP5 33 Trever Miller 3 2

Yes, I realize that Astacio isn’t starting at the moment, as two guys named Taylor Buchholz and Fernando Nieve have taken their cracks at the fifth starter’s job. Regardless of who is starting there, this rotation is just crying out for Roger Clemens, including the fact that Backe is really better suited as a #4 than a #3.
I thought last season that the loss of Beltran, Kent, and Miller was a lot for Houston to absorb, and if Bagwell and Clemens are really gone, that’s a lot to add to what they overcame last season. Plus, Biggio is due to be next – man, there are a lot of old guys playing up-the-middle positions these days.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Raw EWSL: 172.17 (57 W)
Adjusted: 193.37 (64 W)
Age-Adj.: 184.22 (61 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 25 Ryan Doumit* 3 8
1B 31 Sean Casey 19 15
2B 25 Jose Castillo# 7 11
SS 28 Jack Wilson 17 18
3B 36 Joe Randa 14 11
RF 37 Jeromy Burnitz 16 11
CF 26 Chris Duffy* 3 6
LF 27 Jason Bay 22 22
C2 27 Humberto Cota 3 3
INF 28 Freddy Sanchez* 6 13
OF 29 Craig Wilson 10 9
12 36 Jose Hernandez 5 4
13 24 Nate McLouth 1 1
SP1 23 Zach Duke* 5 10
SP2 24 Oliver Perez 7 8
SP3 24 Paul Maholm* 2 5
SP4 24 Ian Snell 1 1
SP5 29 Victor Santos 3 2
RP1 28 Mike Gonzalez 6 6
RP2 41 Roberto Hernandez 6 6
RP3 31 Damaso Marte 8 6
RP4 27 John Grabow# 1 2
RP5 34 Salomon Torres 10 7

The Pirates have to be downgraded from these numbers depending upon the severity of Sean Casey’s injury, which I gather is pretty grim. (Doumit is also hurt at present). On the other hand, that’s one reason I don’t downgrade bench players who are rated based on being regulars in the recent past – Craig Wilson, who was probably going to play a lot anyway, can now be valued as a regular.
I suspect the Pirates will actually finish last (the early standings certainly bear this out), but much depends on their young and young-ish pitchers – whether Perez’ 2004 season was a fluke year (his control’s been bad in the early going), whether Maholm and Snell can contribute in a serious way. If the youngsters (or, more likely, Victor Santos) falter, Kip Wells should be back later in the season.
Cincinnati Reds
Raw EWSL: 183.33 (61 W)
Adjusted: 188.80 (63 W)
Age-Adj.: 182.16 (61 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 32 Jason LaRue 15 13
1B 36 Scott Hatteberg 12 9
2B 30 Ryan Freel 12 12
SS 26 Felipe Lopez 14 16
3B 23 Edwin Encarnacion* 2 6
RF 26 Austin Kearns 9 10
CF 36 Ken Griffey 16 12
LF 26 Adam Dunn 25 29
C2 30 Javier Valentin 7 7
INF 36 Tony Womack 8 6
OF 35 Quinton McCracken 2 1
12 34 Rich Aurilia 12 11
13 25 Brandon Phillips 1 1
SP1 28 Aaron Harang 7 8
SP2 27 Brandon Claussen# 4 4
SP3 29 Bronson Arroyo# 9 9
SP4 30 Eric Milton 3 2
SP5 27 Dave Williams 4 3
RP1 36 David Weathers 7 6
RP2 38 Kent Mercker 6 4
RP3 40 Chris Hammond 5 5
RP4 37 Rick White 4 3
RP5 25 Todd Coffey* 2 4

“Hey, I remember that guy – he’s still pitching?” should be the motto of the Reds’ bullpen. Also in the pen mix are younger arms like Matt Belisle and Mike Burns, plus when he returns from injury Paul “Mr. February” Wilson may get a crack at the rotation, depending on which parts of it are in disarray at that juncture. I expect Ryan Wagner as well to get some serious time in this bullpen.
I gather that Womack may get cut when Griffey comes back, but I’m keeping him on the list of talent on hand until then.
Griffey seems to be reaching the point where it’s no longer credible to pretend you can stick him in center and play him every day; between the injuries and the deterioration of his defense, he’s probably most effective platooning in a corner outfield slot or becoming a DH. And honestly, the Reds should just move on – if Griffey was gone, maybe we wouldn’t see a bad team fielding a roster with a 34-year-old, a 35-year-old, and seven guys 36 or older.

And I Agree With Myself!

Patterico catches his nemesis, LA Times writer and blogger Michael Hiltzik, posting comments under a pseudonym – even on Hiltzik’s own blog! And better yet, Hiltzik cited the pseudonym’s comments as if they were independent support for his position in a battle with another commenter at his site. You have to read the whole thing to get the full effect (even better if you’ve followed Patterico’s lengthy and acrimonious feud with Hiltzik). Chalk this up as further proof that any time a journalist gets in an argument with a practicing lawyer, bet on the lawyer.
UPDATE: Hiltzik responds, essentially admitting the charge but – rather than apologize for deceiving readers through the use of multiple online identities who interacted with each other – setting up a straw man (that the issue is about pseudonyms generally) and ranting generally about Patterico (no such attack would be complete without calling Patterico a racist, and Hiltzik manages to work that hoary canard into his rant). Really, I’m starting to wonder if Patterico is actually Hiltzik – this guy is just too pitch-perfect a weaselly, sneering, blinkered, high-handed caricature of a big media liberal to be for real.
SECOND UPDATE: Hiltzik’s blog is down now, but there was an announcement earlier that the blog was being suspended pending an LA Times investigation:

The Times has suspended Michael Hiltzik’s Golden State blog on latimes.com. Hiltzik admitted Thursday that he posted items on the paper’s website, and on other websites, under names other than his own. That is a violation of The Times ethics policy, which requires editors and reporters to identify themselves when dealing with the public. The policy applies to both the print and online editions of the newspaper. The Times is investigating the postings.

Wow. Even Dan Rather didn’t go down this fast. I didn’t and don’t think this was a firing offense, but I can understand why they suspended the blog. The Real Ugly American explains that the problem was Hiltzik’s failure to observe the rules of the medium he chose:

What is bad form, and cowardly, and has resulted in lots of people being run off of websites, blogs, message boards, video game communities, etc in shame and ridicule is using multiple names in an attempt to hide your already anonymous self to make a particularly offensive comment, or create phony allies for your arguments.
I have seen it first hand many times. People who do this become the laughing stock of the community and their ruined reputation lives on in infamy years after they have been excommunicated.
In an anonymous community the only thing you have is your name. People learn to trust it, or suspect every claim made by certain individuals based on their posting history.
What Hiltzik appears to have done (he may yet deny he is guilty of this unpardonable interweb sin) has brought many an anonymous 16 year old to tears and shame. For a professional journalist to be caught red handed is an embarrassment to not only him but to his profession and his employer.

The 50 Best

Nate Silver of the Baseball Prospectus writes an article at ESPN.com that I’d been meaning to do myself: a list of who the most valuable players in baseball would be if you could disregard their existing contracts and pick whoever you wanted going forward (though Silver includes the proviso that he’s valuing guys with less than six years’ service time more highly given that they could be had for less money under the current rules). You can read Silver’s list, which is a great argument-starter, here and here. Unsurprisingly, given that this is the Baseball Prospectus, the list is liberally salted with guys who have yet to post a successful full season in the major leagues.
I’m in total agreement, of course, with Silver’s #1 guy: Albert Pujols, who is just such a scary hitter that all other considerations fall by the wayside. But I’d offer up a few quibbles of my own with Silver’s list:
*I’d rank Miguel Cabrera #2 or #3 – Cabrera’s such a prodigious power hitter at such a young age that I’d take him over A-Rod and David Wright.
*I’d take Mark Teixera over Joe Mauer – Tex has no health issues, whereas Mauer’s knees make him very much a question mark to remain a catcher long-term. Mauer’s a great young player, but some caution is recommended.
*I’d still rather have Roy Oswalt than Felix Hernandez; Felix is a tremendous talent, but until he has proven that he can throw 200 innings in a major league season at least once without breaking down, he’s just another pitching prospect. Hey, Mark Prior was this impressive once too.
*I’d take Vladimir Guerrero over Jason Bay. Vlad is a freak of nature, and his bad back appears to be behind him.
*I’m as big a fan as anyone of caution in dealing with aging players, but Manny not even in the top 50? Really? Contract aside, would you trade Manny straight-up for Howie Kendrick? Brian McCann? Ryan Howard? I wouldn’t.
*I know last season was rough and he’s hurting again right now, but I’d still take Carlos Beltran over Andruw Jones, Eric Chavez, Roy Halladay or Rich Harden. I’d also rather have Derek Jeter than Jones and rather have Adam Dunn, with his awesome power and just hitting his prime, than Chavez. Harden seems overrated here, given his injury history.

Target: Medical Research

In an opinion handed down today in United States ex rel. Haight v. Catholic Healthcare West, No. 03-16937 (9th Cir. Apr. 19, 2006), the Ninth Circuit permitted an animal rights activist’s qui tam suit to go forward under the False Claims Act against a cancer researcher, principally on the theory that the researcher misrepresented the efficacy of his research.
Now, I’m not an expert on the False Claims Act’s source-of-information provisions or their interaction with the Freedom of Information Act – the legal issue presented to the Ninth Circuit – and I don’t know whether this particular research project was or wasn’t a meritorious use of public health funds. So, I’m not going to pass judgment on today’s decison itself. But I do know that allowing animal rights zealots an opening to use private litigation to harrass medical researchers is a horrifying development. You will note, if you review the allegations on pages 6-7 of the slip opinion, that there are no allegations of the kind of things the False Claims Act is intended to protect against, i.e., personal enrichment, bill padding, and/or cost overruns by government contractors. Instead, there are a series of charges mainly relating to the medical merits of the research – a subject that will often be difficult for a judge without medical expertise to resolve on a motion to dismiss (where you assume the truth of the plaintiff’s allegations) or even on summary judgment (where the defendant only wins if it can show that there are no material factual disputes). Result: protracted and expensive litigation whenever anti-animal-research fanatics can gin up a factual dispute and hire an expert to bicker over anything said in a research application, with the attendant chilling effect on life-saving research. Indeed, from the docket numbers on the caption it appears that this particular case has already dragged on for five years just on the dispute over the legal merits.
The government officials charged with approving medical research can and should be the sole judges of the scientific merits of such research. Allowing opponents of such research to attack projects that have already been approved through the vehicle of the False Claims Act is a threat to public health.

Games Over

David Pinto quotes an amazing fact from the NY Daily News: the Mets’ five-game lead is “the largest lead in a division in major-league history after 12 games.” Not clear if that includes leads before the advent of divisional play in 1969, although I did a quick check here and couldn’t find any bigger than 4.5 games.
Pedro’s 200th win also gives him a career record of 200-84, 116 games over .500. Where would that leave him all time, if he either retired tomorrow or pitched .500 ball the rest of his career? Here are the 24 men who now stand 100+ games over .500:

# Pitcher +.500
1 Cy Young 195
2 Al Spalding* 188
3 Christy Mathewson 185
4 Roger Clemens# 169
5 Grover Alexander 165
6 Lefty Grove 159
7 Kid Nichols 153
8 John Clarkson 150
9 Walter Johnson 138
10 Eddie Plank 132
10 Greg Maddux+ 132
12 Whitey Ford 130
13 Randy Johnson+ 128
14 Bob Caruthers 119
15 Warren Spahn 118
16 Tim Keefe 117
17 Jim Palmer 116
17 Pedro Martinez+ 116
19 Old Hoss Radbourn 114
20 Three Finger Brown 109
21 Tom Seaver 106
22 Bob Feller 104
22 Joe McGinnity 104
24 Juan Marichal 101

* – Includes National Association records 1871-75
+ – Still active in 2006
# – May return in 2006

That’s some good company. Other than the active pitchers, all but Caruthers are in the Hall of Fame, and Caruthers probably should be. If you’re wondering, the other top active pitchers are Mike Mussina at +97, Tom Glavine at +93, and David Wells at +83.

Chock Full O’ Mets

Dr. Blogstein wants the new Mets stadium to be called Jackie Robinson Field. (via Pinto and MetsBlog). Of course, the Mets likely want to sell the naming rights to a corporate sponsor; Dr. Blogstein estimates this at a $10 million/year revenue stream (just think how much free advertising the Wrigley Chewing Gum Co. has gotten over the years). I don’t particularly like that, but it’s business, as long as they pick a sponsor who doesn’t sound ridiculous and isn’t likely to disappear or keep changing its corporate name (no banks or cell phone companies, please). In the abstract, the Robinson idea is a fine one, but I don’t see how it happens. MetsBlog:

which could happen, if only Jackie Robinson was the name of a huge corporation . . . otherwise, as noble of a suggestion as it is, i can’t see this happening . . .
. . . so far, the best corporate connection i’ve heard was with MetLife . . . which makes a ton of sense . . .

Well, there is one company that would benefit from putting up money to name the place after Robinson, although I doubt they could afford to put up quite that much money without naming the place after the company: the Chock Full O’ Nuts Coffee Company, where Jackie Robinson worked after retiring from baseball (remember, in those days players didn’t make enough money to retire in their mid-30s). At a minimum, I wonder why they don’t put up some cash to try to get Robinson’s likeness on their coffee cans (you might be able to roll both deals into one) – it’s not every company that has a real connection to such a distinguished historical figure (on the other hand, when was the last time you saw Thomas Edison’s likeness associated with Con Ed?).

Quick Links and Quick Hits 4/18/06

*Count me out of any complaints about there being a Flight 93 movie. I’m sick of being told how we can and can’t commemorate September 11. In World War II they didn’t flinch from making movies about the war that was on – go watch a movie like Mrs. Miniver, which won Best Picture in 1942 and took on the blitz while the bombs were still falling in England. The Flight 93 story has everything: real villains, real heroes, real tragedy, and the reality of why we fight and what the difference is between them and us. We need to have this movie.
*More on Iran another day, but I just gotta say, reviewing how bad our options are with regard to both Iran and North Korea: thank God we got rid of Saddam before he got that far down that road. In the meantime, compare this excellent Mark Steyn analysis of the Iranian situation and how it got this way (h/t Drezner) with this Michael Kinsley hand-wringer on the same question, and see if you can spot the difference. (Hint: Steyn says what he thinks we should do. Kinsley can’t).
*Stuart Buck asks a good question about the Iraqi mobile bio-not-weapons lab. (His source is his brother-in-law, for what that’s worth). And Ed Morrissey catches the Washington Post misleading readers on the subject.
*A Constitutional right to vagrancy: Such a very Ninth Circuit-y opinion from the Ninth Circuit, authored of course by a Clinton appointee.
*Speaking of which: I asked around my office and nobody wants to bet against the Supreme Court taking this case. Let’s see: Ninth Circuit? Check. War on Terror significance? Check. Campaign finance/First Amendment angle? Check. Dissent by heterodox group of judges including Kozinski and Reinhardt? Check. (UPDATE: More on the same).
*So, let me get this straight: Cindy Sheehan now thinks President Bush is spending too little time at the ranch? Go away, please. (UPDATE: Looks like the AP has changed the story at this link).
*Libertarian and reluctant 2004 Bush voter Megan McArdle notes three things the Bush Administration has gotten right without getting adequate credit:

The first is trade. The Bush administration’s committment to free trade has been downright inspiring. . . .
The second is education. . . . for the first time we are forcing educators to ask basic questions like “Can all our children read?” and we have stopped letting them segregate minorities into special education tracks that don’t count for evaluation purposes . . .
The third is foreign aid. . . . the Bush administration made countries comply with the conditions before they got any cash.

As usual, McArdle isn’t hesitant to criticize Bush, but she makes a good case that he’s been right on all three of these counts. Read the whole thing.
*Conservatives=racists? Jeff Goldstein has a lengthy take-down of this particular substitute for thought.
*Via RCP Blog, a profile of Caitlin Flanagan, who writes on what is, by far and away, the single most divisive topic you can raise in American society: the tradeoffs of mothers of small children working outside the home vs. staying home with the kids.
*Another battle over a Founding Father’s legacy, in this case Hamilton. My general view of the Founding Fathers is this: their virtues – foresight, wisdom, physical and moral courage, restraint in the exercise of power, leadership, stirring rhetoric, keen understanding of human nature – grow all the more impressive with time, and make all generations to come after them look small by contrast.
But their vices are another matter. Look carefully at any portrait of the Foudning Fathers and you will see among one or another of them envy, racism, extremes of ideology, partisanship, factionalism and incivility, libel, lust and licentiousness, venality, pride and ego, etc. While their virtues were all too rare, their vices were all too common and familiar (a fact that no doubt informed their generally dim view of human nature).
*Lawyers, watch where you post about your own firm’s cases on the internet. (via Bashman).
*First, shoot all the lawyers: unrest in Nepal.
*This is just a wild photo.
*Life on Planet Rickey.
*Charming portrait of Congressman Jim Moran, one of Holy Cross’ least admirable alumni.

Cold Air and Guile

How early is it still? Well, 40-year-old Tom Glavine, 40-year-old Orlando Hernandez, 41-year-old Kenny Rogers and 43-year-old Jamie Moyer – none of whom has ever been a serious power pitcher (Glavine is the only one of the bunch to whiff more than 150 batters in a season more than once) have struck out a combined 72 batters in 71 innings thus far this season.

Killing the King

As the saying goes, if you shoot at the king, you better kill him. With a 4-game lead on the Braves entering the three-game set at Shea opening with tonight’s matchup of Pedro Martinez and Jorge Sosa, the Mets are shooting at the king in a big way. Things could hardly be aligned better for the Mets – Chipper’s hurt, Jeff Francoeur has a .218 OBP, Marcus Giles has 1 RBI, the Braves’ bullpen is in disarray, the Mets will miss Smoltz, and the three starters in this series (Sosa, Kyle Davies and Tim Hudson) have a combined ERA of 9.39 thus far, while the Mets are (other than Carlos Beltran’s worrisome strained hamstring) firing on all cylinders and have been setting their rotation and bullpen to be ready for this series. In short, this may be an opportunity to put the Braves away early, and the Mets may not have a chance like this again until late September, if ever. You want to be a champion, you take those opportunities when they arise.

The Prince

Watching Prince Fielder run the bases this weekend I can see why it’s a good idea to get him in the majors now as a 21-year-old – generally, fat power hitters end up having a lot of their good years at an early age and slowing down a lot past 30 (think Boog Powell, or Kent Hrbek). Fielder’s already a dangerous power hitter, but the odds of him being a defensive and baserunning disaster 10 years from now are pretty high.

Fifty Years of Frank Baseball

Today marks the 50th anniversary of Frank Robinson’s major league debut. Robinson, then just 20 years old, went on to hit 38 homers and win the National League Rookie of the Year award, kicking off one of the longest and most remarkable careers the game has seen. Robinson has been drawing a major league paycheck almost continuously since then, as a player, manager, GM and league executive, and among guys still playing major roles in the game he’s nearly the last of his generation, i.e., the black players who came along while integration was still a novelty (Robinson was the Reds’ first black star). Along the way he’s collected a long series of milestones and firsts, from the first (and only) guy to win the MVP in both leagues to the first black manager to the first manager of the Washington Nationals, to the next-to-last Triple Crown winner to (until recently) the #4 man on the all-time home run list. Robinson broke in as a teammate of Joe Nuxhall, who played during World War II, and was later traded for Doyle Alexander; he faced Whitey Ford, Sandy Koufax and Tom Seaver in the World Series. He was an impact player and has been an impact manager, leading the Reds to their first pennant in 21 years in 1961, the Orioles to their first World Championship in 1966, and managing unexpected revivals in San Francisco in 1982, Baltimore in 1989 and Washington in 2005.
Hats off to Frank Robinson.

2006 NL West EWSL Report

The fifth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Hopefully, I can get the NL Central done before we’re too far into the season.
EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2006 revisions to the age adjustment are discussed here. Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers are in my AL East preview here.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Raw EWSL: 199.33 (66 W)
Adjusted: 224.00 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 208.02 (69 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 22 Dioner Navarro* 2 9
1B 22 James Loney+ 0 12
2B 38 Jeff Kent 25 21
SS 28 Rafael Furcal 24 26
3B 35 Bill Mueller 17 13
RF 30 JD Drew 20 19
CF 39 Kenny Lofton 13 10
LF 32 Jose Cruz 13 12
C2 40 Sandy Alomar 2 1
INF 32 Nomar Garciaparra 11 9
OF 25 Jason Repko* 3 6
12 35 Olmedo Saenz 7 5
13 33 Ramon Martinez 4 4
SP1 28 Brad Penny 9 10
SP2 33 Derek Lowe 10 7
SP3 29 Odalis Perez 7 6
SP4 29 Jae Seo 7 6
SP5 33 Brett Tomko 8 6
RP1 28 Danys Baez 9 10
RP2 26 Yhency Brazoban# 3 4
RP3 31 Lance Carter 5 4
RP4 36 Takashi Saito+ 0 4
RP5 24 Franquelis Osoria+ 1 4

First of all, the NL West absolutely stinks; the Dodgers are a very unimpressive team, and it gets worse from here. I tend to think the Diamondbacks might just be the team to run this division this year, but in any event I can’t disagree with the assessment of EWSL that there are four mediocre teams bunched relatively close together here, and then the Rockies.
Second, more than any other – even the AL East – this division’s story entering the season is dominated by players whose injuries or injury histories, in several cases combined with advanced age, make them enormous question marks – on the Dodgers, that’s Eric Gagne, Cesar Izturis, Drew, Garciaparra, Penny, plus on a lower level Jayson Werth. The Dodgers’ EWSL figure would have looked more impressive if I’d got to them before Opening Day, when I could still have listed Gagne. Of course, Bonds and Schmidt with the Giants are the other two huge question marks.
It has to be frightening for a pitcher to look down the barrel of a season knowing a 38-year-old second baseman and a 39-year-old center fielder have his back.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Raw EWSL: 195.67 (65 W)
Adjusted: 211.40 (70 W)
Age-Adj.: 193.86 (65 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 30 Johnny Estrada 11 10
1B 24 Conor Jackson+ 0 12
2B 28 Orlando Hudson 16 17
SS 35 Craig Counsell 16 11
3B 26 Chad Tracy# 13 18
RF 33 Shawn Green 18 15
CF 30 Eric Byrnes 14 13
LF 38 Luis Gonzalez 18 14
C2 25 Chris Snyder# 3 5
INF 34 Tony Clark 12 11
OF 32 Jeff DaVanon 7 6
12 36 Damoin Easley 7 6
13 28 Andy Green# 1 1
SP1 27 Brandon Webb 15 14
SP2 40 Orlando Hernandez 6 5
SP3 32 Russ Ortiz 6 4
SP4 35 Miguel Batista 10 5
SP5 28 Claudio Vargas 5 5
RP1 26 Jose Valverde 9 9
RP2 26 Brandon Lyon 1 1
RP3 27 Juan Cruz 2 2
RP4 31 Luis Vizcaino 5 4
RP5 28 Greg Acquino# 2 2

If Eric Byrnes is half as bad as his defensive reputation, puttting him in center is a frightening concept, and doubly so next to an aging Luis Gonzalez. On the other hand, in the infield you have Orlando Hudson; I’ve been a fan of Hudson for some time and think this might be the year when he steps up his offensive game after some disheartening steps backwards last season.
There’s an awful lot not to like in Arizona’s starting rotation after Webb (and I don’t know that I’m sold on the Baseball Prospectus’ Cy Young hype for Webb in 2006, either).
San Diego Padres
Raw EWSL: 199.33 (66 W)
Adjusted: 216.23 (72 W)
Age-Adj.: 188.40 (63 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 37 Mike Piazza 12 8
1B 24 Adrian Gonzalez* 1 1
2B 23 Josh Barfield+ 0 12
SS 26 Khalil Greene 15 17
3B 38 Vinny Castilla 13 10
RF 35 Brian Giles 29 21
CF 33 Mike Cameron 15 13
LF 34 Dave Roberts 12 11
C2 35 Doug Mirabelli 5 3
INF 31 Mark Bellhorn 10 8
OF 39 Eric Young 7 5
12 35 Ryan Klesko 16 12
13 29 Termel Sledge# 6 6
SP1 25 Jake Peavy 15 18
SP2 27 Chris Young# 6 6
SP3 39 Woody Williams 6 5
SP4 33 Shawn Estes 6 4
SP5 26 Dewon Brazleton 2 2
RP1 38 Trevor Hoffman 8 6
RP2 29 Scott Linebrink 10 8
RP3 36 Alan Embree 2 2
RP4 33 Chan Ho Park 4 3
RP5 26 Clay Hensley* 3 5

Adrian Gonzalez, of course, will do better than this . . . Last year, I called the Pads “a deceptively old team”. Now, with the addition of Piazza, Castilla, Cameron, Estes, Mirabelli and Embree, the deception has been dropped. And really, what is starting Vinny Castilla but an admission that you are out of ideas and (more to the point) in such a snit with Sean Burroughs’ lack of development that you’d rather bring in a guy with no upside to miss?
I’m very excited about Chris Young’s possibilities at Petco. Brazleton is another matter – maybe the scouts see something, but where’s the evidence of him showing any ability to pitch at the major league level?
San Francisco Giants
Raw EWSL: 221.67 (74 W)
Adjusted: 231.73 (77 W)
Age-Adj.: 184.24 (61 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 35 Mike Matheny 14 10
1B 27 Lance Niekro* 3 6
2B 34 Ray Durham 16 15
SS 39 Omar Vizquel 17 13
3B 31 Pedro Feliz 10 7
RF 39 Moises Alou 21 17
CF 32 Randy Winn 21 18
LF 41 Barry Bonds 25 11
C2 35 Todd Greene 3 2
INF 38 Jose Vizcaino 5 4
OF 41 Steve Finley 12 5
12 36 Mark Sweeney 7 5
13 28 Jason Ellison* 3 7
SP1 33 Jason Schmidt 15 11
SP2 25 Noah Lowry# 10 14
SP3 31 Matt Morris 9 7
SP4 21 Matt Cain* 3 7
SP5 31 Jamey Wright 4 3
RP1 33 Armando Benitez 9 7
RP2 38 Tim Worrell 7 5
RP3 33 Steve Kline 4 3
RP4 30 Tyler Walker 5 4
RP5 25 Kevin Corriea 2 2

I could also have listed 43-year-old Jeff Fassero, yet another of baseball’s growing legion of well-past-40 hurlers, at the end of the staff.
The injury to Noah Lowry had to be a particularly frustrating setback; with age eating away at this roster from all directions, the last thing the Giants needed was an injury to their one good, established player in his mid-20s, and the optimist’s case on the Giants rests heavily on Schmidt, Lowry and Cain providing a top-shelf 1-2-3 punch at the top of the rotation. (Benitez’ injruy was more par for the course).
Bonds, of course, is way beyond anyone’s predictive abilities, but presumably he wouldn’t have a .472 OBP if someone wasn’t still afraid of him.
Colorado Rockies
Raw EWSL: 140.67 (47 W)
Adjusted: 167.83 (56 W)
Age-Adj.: 160.96 (54 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 31 Danny Ardoin* 2 2
1B 32 Todd Helton 29 25
2B 28 Jason Smith 1 1
SS 27 Clint Barmes* 5 9
3B 26 Garrett Atkins* 7 15
RF 27 Brad Hawpe# 4 5
CF 26 Cory Sullivan* 5 12
LF 26 Matt Holliday# 12 16
C2 31 Miguel Ojeda 3 2
INF 27 Luis A. Gonzalez# 7 8
OF 26 Choo Freeman+ 0 6
12 32 Eli Marrero 5 5
13 31 Jamey Carroll 7 6
SP1 27 Jason Jennings 7 7
SP2 29 Josh Fogg 5 4
SP3 28 Zach Day 3 4
SP4 25 Jeff Francis# 4 5
SP5 27 Aaron Cook 6 5
RP1 30 Brain Fuentes 9 7
RP2 40 Jose Mesa 6 5
RP3 32 Ray King 5 3
RP4 35 Mike DeJean 4 2
RP5 27 Byun Hyung Kim 5 5

I could have listed more pitchers if I gave myself the flexibility to add more and subtract some position players, as guys like Sun-Woo Kim and Tom Martin are in the mix. I assume the second base situation will remain fluid between Smith, Gonzalez and Carroll. As my older brother pointed out, while paying a 40-year-old Jose Mesa millions to pitch in Coors Field is wrong in too many ways to count, the upside is that Mesa isn’t going to be bothered by giving up a lot of runs.
If you’re an optimist you can point to the fact that many Rockies are right in their prime (26, 27), healthy, and just getting their first or second full shots at regular playing time – precisely the profile of a team poised to take a big step forward. If you’re a pessimist that means 2006 is likely to be about as good as the current youth movement gets (there’s no high upside 22 and 23 year olds on hand), and that’s probably not too good, especially with the pitching still in its perpetual state of disarray.

KATRINA: The Army Corps of Engineers

I have been, I admit, most delinquent in following up on the Hurricane Katrina fallout. I’m not alone: the national media, having initially blamed President Bush for nearly everything, lost interest in the story, and national Democrats are all too happy to leave things right where they are.
But the New Orleans media and some dogged observers have not been so content. One story that they have pursued is the long-term institutional culpability of the Army Corps of Engineers, which designed, constructed and maintained the levees surrounding New Orleans, for building levees that were unable to withstand the pressure of the water that built up against them, and eventually breached, flooding the city.
To backtrack a bit: you will recall that much of the official concern about Katrina hitting New Orleans, including specific concerns raised by and to President Bush, was that the levees would be “overtopped” – i.e., that the water level would rise above the tops of the levees and surge into the city. Thus, for example, if you have a 14-foot levee and 15 feet of water, you get one foot of storm surge lapping through the streets. Instead, however – and unexpectedly, for federal, state and local officials managing the crisis – the levees were breached, meaning that the walls gave way and the whole 14 feet of water came pouring in, a disaster of many times the magnitude of overtopping of the levees.*
Two of the more diligent bloggers following this story and its reporting in the New Orleans media have been New Orleans-based Paul of Wizbang and Harry Shearer (yes, the Harry Shearer, of “Spinal Tap” and the voice of Mr. Burns, among others) at the Huffington Post (h/t Kaus). Here, Paul explains why the Army Corps of Engineers manual shows that the levees should have been constructed to hold more water than they did. Here, Paul notes that tests done by the Corps showed the weaknesses of the way the levees were being built almost two decades before Katrina. Here, he notes that the badly-designed levees that failed were constructed in the late 1990s, and argues that the Corps is still using bad, old data to build new levees. Here, Shearer flags the admission by the head of the Corps at a recent Senate hearing that it was design defects in the levees that caused the flooding of the city. And here, Shearer excoriates the media for not caring about the Corps story.
Paul keeps talking about a lawsuit and perhaps there are some federal contractors who might not be protected by Boyle immunity for some reason, but I’m not sure who could get sued; I know that this lawsuit does not sound promising:

A lawyer who has filed a class-action suit over the levee failures said Strock’s statement may mean little for his case because the corps is generally immune from legal liability by virtue of a 1928 law that put the agency in the levee-building business.
“The words are heavy and important'” Joseph Bruno said. “The problem is legal impediment called immunity. It was tort reform that began in 1928.”
However, lawyer Mitchell Hoffman said it could help his case, which seeks to sidestep the corps’ immunity by alleging the levee failure amounted to a massive government seizure of peoples’ homes and land.
“It simplifies the case significantly because we don’t have to have a battle of experts,” Hoffman said. “Now the judge can say because of the enormity, it was a taking and the government needs to pay these people for their property.”

I can’t see how you can squeeze the square peg of a charge of negligent levee design into the round hole of a claim of Fifth Amendment takings of property.

Continue reading KATRINA: The Army Corps of Engineers

Smallville: Tattooine

I missed blogging on this when it came out, but it was reported about a month ago that filming on the new Star Wars TV show will begin in 2008. So far, so good. But then there’s this:

The series will be set between episodes three and four of the film saga.
It would cover the 20 years in the life of Luke Skywalker growing up that remains a mystery to most film-goers.
[producer Rick] McCallum said there would be “a whole bunch of new characters” and the series would be “much more dramatic and darker”.

Please tell me that this franchise, which has made so many critical missteps in the past decade and which has something of a chance to start afresh with a TV series, isn’t going to make a TV show about young Luke Skywalker. I mean, the entire point of Luke’s character in Episode IV is that he’s been off the scene for 20 years, at a distance from the battle against the Empire, frustrated and bored living life on a moisture farm in the middle of the desert. Nothing interesting ever happens to him, and at the start of Episode IV he’s never seen a lightsaber and never practiced the Jedi arts. Are they gonna rewrite that history, or is this going to be a bunch of tedious stuff about Luke’s teen angst having only a tangential connection to events outside of Tattooine? (UPDATE: Anyone want bets on how many episodes they do before we get to see Luke buying power converters at Tosche Station?)
What would be doubly frustrating is that there are a whole raft of existing Star Wars characters who would be interesting to follow in that 20-year period – Darth Vader, Tarkin, Chewbacca (OK, I recognize the dramatic limitations of a series with a Wookie as the main character), Han, Lando, R2D2, C3PO . . . short of watching Yoda alone in the swamp, Luke is about the worst character you could pick. Perhaps most obviously, you could break the mold by building around a female character: Princess Leia, who is at the center of things in Alderaan, watching her father navigate the politics of staying in the Senate while he leads the Rebellion. Leia has obviously been active herself in the Rebellion, has dealt with R2, 3PO, Vader and Tarkin . . . but instead, we are to be treated to Smallville: Tattooine?
UPDATE: Tim Harden at Flying Sparrows says I’ve been led astray and that the series will actually focus on other characters. If Lucas knows what’s good for him, one of the first 2 or 3 episodes should feature the death of Jar Jar Binks, ideally involving either the Sarlaac or how Boba Fett got a reputation for disintegrations.
SECOND UPDATE: Hey, a love interest for Admiral Ackbar!

2006 NL East EWSL Report

The fourth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. And yes, I’m aware that I’m well behind schedule here, but it’s been a crazy spring; I’ve been working on this post for the past week trying to get all the numbers up to speed before they are out of date.
EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2006 revisions to the age adjustment are discussed here. Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers are in my AL East preview here.
Atlanta Braves
Raw EWSL: 193.67 (65 W)
Adjusted: 222.20 (74 W)
Age-Adj.: 241.69 (81 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 22 Brian McCann* 3 14
1B 26 Adam LaRoche# 8 11
2B 28 Marcus Giles 22 24
SS 30 Edgar Renteria 17 17
3B 34 Chipper Jones 20 18
RF 22 Jeff Francouer* 6 27
CF 29 Andruw Jones 21 19
LF 26 Ryan Langerhans* 6 14
C2 39 Todd Pratt 5 4
INF 25 Wilson Betemit* 4 9
OF 24 Kelly Johnson* 5 12
13 27 Pete Orr* 2 3
14 39 Brian Jordan 4 3
SP1 30 Tim Hudson 16 13
SP2 39 John Smoltz 16 12
SP3 26 Horacio Ramirez 7 7
SP4 22 Kyle Davies* 2 6
SP5 29 Jorge Sosa 9 8
RP1 28 Chris Reitsma 8 9
RP2 24 Oscar Villereal 2 3
RP3 40 Mike Remlinger 3 2
RP4 25 Lance Cormier# 2 3
RP5 32 John Thomson 8 5

What, you expected someone else? Last year, I had the Braves in last place in a tight division; I had the tight division right, but I didn’t account for the huge influx of rookies who saved Atlanta. This time, EWSL is overrating some of those rookies. Francouer, for example, is rated here as he should be, in one sense: the age adjustment compensates for the fact that he played only a half season last year. But in fact, he’s probably a guy who had a well-timed hot streak rather than a genuinely great young talent who can cough up 27 Win Shares this year. But no matter: the Braves will get them from somewhere.
There will be few clearer tests of the Braves’ ability to continue to defy the odds after the departure of Leo Mazzone than Jorge Sosa, whose dramatic improvement last season was almost entirely due to better luck on balls in play. On a non-Braves team, you’d look at that (and his 23.14 ERA thus far) and assume he would collapse, but the Braves are the Braves; even if he does, they will replace him.
Matt Diaz is currently playing in place of the injured Kelly Johnson, and Thomson is currently in the rotation in place of the injured Ramirez. Some rotoheads are excited by the idea that recent callup Joey Devine will stand next in line for the closer job, and while that may be true, Devine’s high minor league walk rates suggest to me a guy who – at least if he wasn’t on the Braves – would probably have a rocky ride his first time around the majors. Chuck James is in some ways a more interesting short-term prospect, but he’s also a guy who is very unproven at this level.
New York Mets
Raw EWSL: 225.00 (75 W)
Adjusted: 249.90 (83 W)
Age-Adj.: 235.18 (78 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 34 Paul LoDuca 16 15
1B 34 Carlos Delgado 26 24
2B 23 Anderson Hernandez+ 0 12
SS 23 Jose Reyes 12 16
3B 23 David Wright# 16 27
RF 27 Xavier Nady 6 6
CF 29 Carlos Beltran 26 23
LF 33 Cliff Floyd 19 17
C2 30 Ramon Castro 4 4
INF 30 Kaz Matsui# 7 8
OF 24 Victor Diaz* 4 9
13 30 Chris Woodward 5 4
14 47 Julio Franco 9 4
SP1 34 Pedro Martinez 18 13
SP2 40 Tom Glavine 13 13
SP3 35 Steve Trachsel 6 3
SP4 30 Victor Zambrano 8 7
SP5 25 Brian Bannister+ 0 4
RP1 34 Billy Wagner 15 11
RP2 27 Aaron Heilman 5 5
RP3 26 Duaner Sanchez# 6 7
RP4 27 Jorge Julio 3 3
RP5 31 Chad Bradford 4 3

The arbitrary award of 12 WS to a rookie with an everyday job is probably high for Hernandez; the 12 number is high in general because only the very best rookies tend to get everyday jobs out of spring training. This year, there are a number of players being forced into jobs either due to injuries (here, Matsui) or due to wholesale restructurings (see the Marlins below). I suspect that when I recalculate the rookie number after 2006 I will have to revise it downward.
Heilman’s EWSL is low because it counts in 2003, when he was horrid, and 2004, when he hardly pitched. Note that he’s 27; Heilman’s future is now, and he ought not to be wasting it in the bullpen. Trachsel is also lowballed here because he missed almost all of last season after WS totals of 13 and 10, but in Trachsel’s case that’s a reasonable caution: he’s 35 and coming off a bad back, so caution is wise. The Mets are also very heavily invested in 34-year-olds, which tells you that this team will need to be rebuilt soon whether they win this year or not. For the record, I do think there’s a pretty good chance this team could go deep into the playoffs; there’s a bunch of gambles here but if Pedro and Glavine hold up and Beltran bounces back, the Mets could really make some noise.
I’ll be surprised if Julio lasts until the All-Star Break; I’d rather see him go the Felix Heredia route with the Mets than the Mel Rojas route.
Of course, as I’ve noted repeatedly, don’t be fooled by the low win totals listed here – especially if the Nationals and Marlins struggle, the other three teams in the division should end up looking stronger as a result of getting some easy in-division games.
Philadelphia Phillies
Raw EWSL: 226.34 (75 W)
Adjusted: 237.83 (79 W)
Age-Adj.: 223.25 (74 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 34 Mike Lieberthal 11 10
1B 26 Ryan Howard* 5 12
2B 27 Chase Utley 16 16
SS 27 Jimmy Rollins 22 22
3B 33 David Bell 12 10
RF 32 Bobby Abreu 30 26
CF 28 Aaron Rowand 17 19
LF 29 Pat Burrell 19 17
C2 34 Sal Fasano 2 1
INF 30 Abraham Nunez 7 7
OF 32 David Dellucci 12 10
13 33 Alex Gonzalez 8 7
14 25 Shane Victorino+ 1 6
SP1 25 Brett Myers 10 12
SP2 36 Jon Lieber 10 8
SP3 34 Cory Lidle 7 5
SP4 25 Ryan Madson# 6 9
SP5 23 Gavin Floyd* 1 1
RP1 38 Tom Gordon 12 9
RP2 36 Arthur Rhodes 4 4
RP3 39 Rheal Cormier 5 4
RP4 32 Aaron Fultz 5 3
RP5 33 Ryan Franklin 7 5

Geoff Geary will undoubtedly pitch in higher-leverage relief situations than Franklin, but I’m sure Franklin will end up the year with more innings as he gets called upon to start, so I listed Franjlin. A healthy return by Randy Wolf would also boost this team’s fortunes. One of the frustrations of getting delayed in launching the EWSL previews is that I sometimes end up rating the same guy twice – here, David Dellucci, who got traded from Texas. He won’t find the playing time in Philly to match his 29 homers from 2005.
Needless to say, Howard should beat 12 Win Shares, but it is worth noting that he wasn’t a young rookie last year; he’s probably already pretty close to as good as he’ll get. Utley should also clear 16 WS, since his EWSL reflects a two-year battle for playing time before his breakout 2005.
The Phillies are another of those teams that has age around the edges, although they do take a hit on some key guys entering their decline years (Abreu) or well into them (Gordon, Lieber, Bell, Lidle, Rhodes – the pitching staff after Myers has a lot of age on it). David Bell may well be finished, and there isn’t really a good alternative reayd at this point. On the other hand, Madson could be a surprise success story in the rotation, and Floyd at least has an upside, though I doubt we’ll see him do much but learn to survive in 2006. Basically, the Phillies are taking on all the classic hallmarks of a team in a good hitters’ park: a deep, solid lineup (but one with a few weak links protected by the park) coupled with difficulty developing young pitchers and a corresponding tendency to rely on weak second-line free agent veteran arms.
Realistically, EWSL has it about right: the Phils are a weaker team than the Braves or Mets, mainly because of their pitching, but not by a lot, and in a world where it was possible for the Braves to lose they could still win the division.
Washington Nationals
Raw EWSL: 183.50 (61 W)
Adjusted: 209.20 (70 W)
Age-Adj.: 196.88 (66 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 29 Brian Schneider 16 14
1B 27 Nick Johnson 15 15
2B 31 Jose Vidro 12 10
SS 36 Royce Clayton 10 8
3B 21 Ryan Zimmerman+ 1 12
RF 30 Jose Guillen 18 17
CF 24 Brad Watson+ 0 12
LF 30 Alfonso Soriano 18 17
C2 32 Wiki Gonzalez 1 1
INF 28 Cristian Guzman 10 11
OF 28 Marlon Byrd 8 8
13 30 Matt LeCroy 7 7
14 32 Marlon Anderson 5 4
SP1 31 Livan Hernandez 17 13
SP2 28 John Patterson 8 8
SP3 33 Ramon Ortiz 5 4
SP4 28 Tony Armas jr 2 2
SP5 30 Ryan Drese 7 5
RP1 24 Chad Cordero# 11 15
RP2 26 Gary Majewski# 4 5
RP3 39 Mike Stanton 4 3
RP4 33 Felix Rodriguez 4 3
RP5 36 Joey Eischen 3 2

Yeah, I know, is Livan really 31? Not knowing the truth, I stick to the reported age. Nick Johnson is entering the “is that all there is” stage of his career, and I no longer expect sustained greatness, but it still would not surprise me to see him rip off one healthy year in the next year or two where he slugs .550 with a .450 OBP and drives in 110 runs. He and Patterson are the main guys on this team with real upsides from their EWSL figures, although a healthy Armas could still turn in a halfway-decent season. It’s the back of the rotation after Patterson that’s a particular concern for this team, plus Vidro’s decline, plus the utter lack of a major league shortstop.
It’s almost a pity Andy Marte left Atlanta – imagine a division with Zimmerman, Wright, Cabrera and Marte as third base rivals for the next decade (assuming Cabrera doesn’t get moved again). If the Nationals get 11 Win Shares out of Cristian Guzman, I’ll eat my hat.
Florida Marlins
Raw EWSL: 70.83 (24 W)
Adjusted: 157.53 (53 W)
Age-Adj.: 167.71 (56 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 27 Miguel Olivo 6 6
1B 25 Mike Jacobs* 3 6
2B 26 Dan Uggla+ 0 12
SS 22 Hanley Ramirez+ 0 12
3B 23 Miguel Cabrera 23 32
RF 22 Jeremy Hermida 2 12
CF 25 Reggie Abercrombie+ 0 12
LF 27 Josh Willingham+ 0 12
C2 30 Matt Treanor 1 1
INF 30 Wes Helms 6 6
OF 25 Eric Reed+ 0 6
13 27 Chris Aguila+ 0 6
14 28 Alfredo Amezaga 1 1
SP1 24 Dontrelle Willis 17 19
SP2 23 Jason Vargas* 2 4
SP3 34 Brian Moehler 3 2
SP4 25 Sergio Mitre# 1 1
SP5 22 Scott Olsen+ 1 4
RP1 35 Joe Borowski 4 2
RP2 26 Franklyn German 2 2
RP3 36 Matt Herges 2 2
RP4 23 Chris Resop+ 0 4
RP5 23 Ricky Nolasco+ 0 4

That first number isn’t a misprint: there are only 24 wins worth of established major league talent here. The rest will need to be made up with guys who have only been in the majors part of one season (Jacobs and Vargas) or two (Mitre) and raw rookies. Beyond that basic observation, EWSL is essentially useless to make sense of a team as reliant on un-established talent as the Hatchlings.
Note that Jacobs should easily surpass 6 WS, since he’s rated here on barely more than a month’s work, albeit a month he will probably never top; I continue to see him as the next Rico Brogna. My gut feeling is that the Marlins won’t be terrible and could finish ahead of the Nationals, but then EWSL is assuming a solid 12-WS season from each of the rookie non-pitchers, and that’s probably an unreasonably optimistic assumption, plus the pitching staff is awfully threadbare, and rookie pitchers – even in pitcher-friendly Miami – tend to struggle. Either way, this will not be a good team this season, and that changes the dynamics in this division rather dramatically.
Hermida might be a big slugger eventually, though I gather in the short term he should look comparable to Brad Wilkerson. There’s been some talk of the Marlins moving Miguel Cabrera, but I chalk that up to paranoia – there’s simply no possible way to benefit from trading a 23-year-old whose most similar players lists at baseball-reference.com and the Baseball Prospectus include Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey jr., Joe Medwick and Vladimir Guerrero. Any prospects you get back for Cabrera wouldn’t be much younger and would be hugely unlikely to match Cabrera’s upside (if you can name one minor leaguer anywhere with his upside, you’re ahead of me).

Quick Links 4/10/06

*Saddam and suicide attacks on America: Ed Morrissey connects the dots. Disbelieve if you like, but another must-read for anyone interested in getting to the bottom of Saddam’s regime’s multifaceted terrorist ties and ambitions rather than continuing to hide behind the same old talking points. I remain skeptical that Saddam’s regime was actually involved in the September 11 attacks – I think it more likely than not that the Iraqis’ ties to Al Qaeda didn’t run quite that deep – but a prudent person would not rule that possibility entirely out, either, and the fact that there wasn’t immediate evidence pointing in that direction is no reason for investigative reporters, bloggers and historians to stop looking. Kudos to Captain Ed for doing the legwork of hiring his own translators to vet this particular document.
*John Hawkins interviews Mike Huckabee, Republican governor of Arkansas and a possible dark horse candidate for the 2008 nomination. Huckabee is defensive on taxes, but perhaps reasonably. But consider this answer:

John Hawkins: Let me ask you one more question here. If someone came up to you and said, “Mike Huckabee, pick any three pieces of legislation you’d want to see passed nationally, and we’ll tell you they’ll definitely make it through, what three would you pick? Take your time. I understand this is a tough thing to pull off the top of your head.
Mike Huckabee: Yes, it’s one thing to think about it at the state level which is the water I’ve swam in for all these years versus suddenly throwing me into the nation… I think, you know — the three, ..again, this is sort of off the cuff — and tomorrow I might have a different answer, but one of them would be that we would create more incentives for companies to encourage healthy behavior, not just to provide health care because, again, I think it’s the wrong answer. That encourages people to be unhealthy, but that would mean that you’d empower citizens to handle their own health and give them financial incentives for doing a better job of it. It’s a combination not just of health savings accounts which are a good thing, but even health savings accounts, you have to have some, you know, some capital to start with, to make it where it’s worthwhile. So overhauling that system is one thing.
Secondly, I think I would create a system where people who wanted to further their education could offer volunteer services as young people either in the military like they have with the GI Bill — or in some other form of volunteerism, because there really is a sense of which a lot of Americans do not appreciate their freedom. They do not really recognize just how good they’ve got it. This would give them an opportunity to give something back in exchange so that they wouldn’t have to go to college and incur a huge level of debt in order to further their education. The reason that education is important is because without higher levels of education than a high school diploma, they’re not going to be able to be competitive enough in the marketplace.
A third thing…I think I’d also pass legislation that would insure that the federal government had to live within its budget, a balanced budget amendment and that it could not balance its budget by simply passing costs on to states or local governments.

If I had to pick two words to describe a platform built around these three ideas, it would be “New Democrat.”
*Vodkapundit on what victory in Iraq is, and what it isn’t. This is, of course, a subject I’ve addressed at greater length before.
*Hey, illegal aliens – vote Democrat!
*I’m sorry, but I’m just not buying this story. You can’t make me believe it.

Still Hurtin’

His playing time may be sporadic and he may not be the .320 hitter of old, but over his last 162 games, Frank Thomas has smacked 53 homers and 31 doubles, slugged .583 with a .388 OBP, driven in 135 runs and scored 115, reached base by walk or hit by pitch 127 times, and hit into just 7 double plays. Which is why the A’s are willing to bank on the vagaries of his health in the hopes of getting a good 130 or so games from him.
Also on the subject of great sluggers, this stat shouldn’t have surprised me when I worked it out the other day, but it still did: Manny Ramirez has averaged 130 RBI per season over the last eight years. Which is why, overpaid or not, Manny is still worth the hassle.

What is Wrong with People?

3 arrested at Mass. baby shower brawl”:

An argument at a baby shower escalated into a brawl in which one man was shot and the pregnant guest of honor was beaten with a stick, police said. . . .
Authorities said the shooting victim, Aristotle Garcia, got into a fight with a man who is dating his ex-girlfriend. The argument, over whether the woman let their 5-year-old daughter drink beer, escalated and drew in two other people . . .