Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
April 3, 2006
BASEBALL: PECOTA Plays It Safe

So, just how conservative are the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA forecasts for hitters? I looked through the depth charts at every projected regular in the majors - and, among other things, PECOTA does not project a single AL hitter to post a .400 OBP, and only picks 11 guys (5 in the AL, six in the NL) in all the majors to hit .300 (in the real world, the AL had three guys crack .400 last year, and each league had at least 10 guys hit .305). In fact, only three AL hitters project to a .390 OBP: Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield and Alex Rodriguez (yes, that's a big edge for the Yankees, although two of the next three are Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz). Eight NL players do project to a .400 OBP, dominated by Barry Bonds and then Albert Pujols and Todd Helton.

The few .300 hitters, by division?

NL EAST - Miguel Cabrera
NL CENTRAL - Pujols, Sean Casey
NL WEST - Bonds, Helton

AL EAST - Sheffield, Coco Crisp
AL CENTRAL - Placido Polanco
AL WEST - Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki, Michael Young

(Check the BP site or buy the book for a fuller look at the PECOTA projections). I understand that in making projections you get fewer guys who are likely to cross those barriers than actually do, but those do seem like awfully timid projections.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:37 PM | Baseball 2006 | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

well sure, theyre conservative - if youre looking at the 50% or weighted mean projections. That's waht you'd expect if everyone had average years.

Now for players you think will have a good year look at the 75% projections. if you think they'll have a great year, look at the 90% projections.

Don't call them "timid" -- they're mean projections. Theyre supposed to be conservative.

Posted by: Kevin at April 4, 2006 11:59 AM

I did a little study based on 2005 numbers. Long story short, PECOTA was accurate to within about 7% on BA/OBP/SLG across the board. Do with that what you will.

Posted by: Joe at April 4, 2006 5:24 PM

David Ortiz will hit .300 this year. He is going to walk about 200 times so it is almost inevitable he will hit .300.

Posted by: jim at April 5, 2006 3:47 PM
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