Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
September 21, 2006
POLITICS: Signs, Signs, Everywhere Signs

A Republican tidal wave isn't going to emerge from nowhere, but Jim Geraghty sees signs that may point to better tidings by Election Day. This may, as Howard Fineman suggests, be a "dead cat bounce," but falling gas prices in particular are yet again robbing the Democrats of a crucial talking point down the home stretch (as job growth did in 2004).

Geraghty's been right before, of course, with his pep talks in 2004. While I remember 1996 and 1998 quite well, the fact is that the elections of 2002 and 2004 are the only ones that have really been blogged (with the flood of timely information that entails), and that have taken place after September 11. Which means that it may be hard for Republicans like me who saw almost everything break right in those elections to correctly identify the signs of a true strong home stretch versus the dead cat bounces that Bob Dole and George H.W. Bush enjoyed in the late Octobers of their races against Clinton.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 8:51 AM | Politics 2006 | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

I wouldn't start hanging your hat on that. Gas is still $2.70/gallon and while that may be down in the short term it is still way up over the long haul.

Posted by: jim at September 21, 2006 11:32 AM

Gas at the station I buy gas from was $2.09 this morning. Gas prices in Iowa last week were reported as low as $1.96. It really "is the economy stupid". With gas prices coming way down and no indication they will spike back up, the economy that was starting to cool will heat right back up. '06 will be at the worst a push, but probably additional seats, maybe in both houses, for the Republicans.

Posted by: maddirishman at September 21, 2006 12:02 PM

Given the overwhelming bias in the news, polls taken before the GOP starting campaigning were worse than worthless. Voters are just now beginning to get a small dose of the other side of the story.

Anyone trying to take any meaning from current polls in projecting November results has to take this into consideration. My best guess is to add 2-3 points for movement to the GOP as a result of their ads finally offering a reply to the MSM bombardment of the last 2 years.

Posted by: stan at September 21, 2006 1:57 PM

It would be cheaper to drive to Iowa and buy gas. West Coast pretty much still hovering in the $2.70-$3.00/gallon depending on grade (or diesel). I can't remember the last sub-$40 fill-up I had. Maybe it's a conspiracy to keep gas prices high in the blue states...

Posted by: jim at September 21, 2006 2:53 PM

We also don't have all of the different grades. That is a BIG plus. Our diesel is around $2.60.

Posted by: maddirishman at September 21, 2006 3:50 PM

A 10-20 cent difference from area to area can be attributable to higher delivery costs. However, what keeps gas more expensive in the blue states is the much higher taxes in those states.

Posted by: LargeBill at September 22, 2006 8:43 AM
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