Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
February 20, 2007
BASEBALL: 2006 EWSL Wrapup By Team
As I did last year, before diving into my preseason Established Win Shares Levels roster analyses, I'm going to take a quick look back at last season's. First up is the team-by-team results. For those of you who need a primer on EWSL and my annual roster roundups, go here. A few basic reminders:
*I look at 23 players (13 non-pitchers, 10 pitchers) per team, so an average team should exceed its EWSL due to the fact that most teams these days use between 30-45 players in a season.
*EWSL is an estimate of the established major league talent on a team (adjusted for age) going into a season. It's not a system for predicting the future, although it can be a helpful part of the toolkit (or at least a sanity check) in making predictions of the future.
*EWSL uses a standard figure for rookies (12 WS for rookie everyday players, 6 for rookie bench players, 4 for rookie pitchers (starting or relief)). It does not distinguish between, say, Ryan Zimmerman and Reggie Abercrombie if both are expected to hold everyday jobs. Thus, a team with a lot of high-quality rookies will exceed its EWSL. I'd like to add a non-subjective adjustment for rookie quality, but until I can get Major League Equivalency Win Shares (I don't believe they exist anywhere), I have to rely on the facts that (1) bad rookies rarely get everyday jobs and (2) good rookies often fall on their faces.
That said, basically, my analysis assumes that there are three components to team success: how much established talent is on the preseason roster, how well they perform, and how much production the team gets from guys who supplement those top 23 players with trades, rookies or scrubs. The following table shows the following columns: (1) each team's 2006 EWSL; (2) the actual Win Shares for those 23 players (includes Win Shares earned for other teams, e.g., Bobby Abreu counts with the Phillies); (3) the ratio of column (2) divided by column (1) to show how the 23 players fared relative to EWSL; (4) the team's total actual 2006 Win Shares (i.e., Wins x 3); (5) the team's Win Shares minus those from the top 23 players (in the example above this will include the negative value of, say, Abreu's Yankees Win Shares from the Phillies' "Rest" column); and (6) the ratio of column (4) divided by column (1) to show how the team as a whole fared relative to EWSL. Teams are ranked by that last column:
|Team||EWSL||23-Man WS||23-Man WS/EWSL||Total WS||Rest||Total WS/EWSL|
It should come as no surprise that the Tigers, 2006's big story, rate at the top of teams that exceeded expectations, and that the Cubs land at the bottom of the pile. As you can see, the top teams are something of a mix of teams that had great seasons and teams that had very low expectations - I was a little surprised to see the Reds and Rockies listed, for example. The Mets, on the other hand, did pretty much as expected with their roster but did better than average with guys they added on (although I should note that players overall rated at 0.968 of their EWSL, which will factor in as I re-adjust this year's age and rookie adjustments). The Dodgers rate the highest in that regard, with rookies like Andre Eithier helping out, while the Red Sox, White Sox and Mariners got the least help for their original roster. For the most part, teams that were near the top of this list last year tended to be nearer the bottom and vice versa, but the Cubs were down with the dregs for the second year in a row.
Here are the players among those on the preseason 23-man lineups of each team who were the biggest over and underacvhievers (I'm mixing those who were the biggest ups or downs by percentage or raw total):
|Tigers||Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen||Chris Shelton, Dmitri Young|
|Rockies||Brad Hawpe, Garret Atkins||Cory Sullivan, Luis A Gonzalez|
|Padres||Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Cameron||Ryan Klesko, Shawn Estes|
|Marlins||Alfredo Amezaga, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla||Reggie Abercrombie, Chris Aguila|
|Reds||Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo||Jason LaRue, Chris Hammond|
|Twins||Francisco Liriano, Mike Cuddyer, Justin Morneau||Carlos Silva, Rondell White, Lew Ford|
|Dodgers||Takashi Saito, Derek Lowe||Bill Mueller, James Loney|
|Astros||Trever Miller, Lance Berkman||Eric Munson, Brad Lidge|
|Giants||Kevin Corriea, Barry Bonds||Mike Matheny, Jason Ellison|
|Mets||Jorge Julio, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran||Anderson Hernandez, Victor Diaz, Victor Zambrano|
|Mariners||JJ Putz, Joe Borchard, Raul Ibanez||Matt Lawton, Jeremy Reed, Joel Pineiro|
|D-Backs||Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Brandon Webb||Tony Clark, Jose Valverde|
|Blue Jays||BJ Ryan, Alex Rios||Gustavo Chacin, Josh Towers|
|Phillies||Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley||Aaron Rowand, Alex Gonzalez|
|Royals||Emil Brown, Mark Teahen||Angel Berroa, Zack Grienke|
|White Sox||Matt Thornton, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye||Mark Buehrle, Neal Cotts|
|Brewers||Gabe Gross, Chris Capuano||JJ Hardy, Derrick Turnbow|
|Angels||Robb Quinlan, Ervin Santana, Juan Rivera||Jeff Mathis, Bartolo Colon, Darrin Erstad|
|Indians||Bob Wickman, Travis Hafner||Jason Johnson|
|Pirates||Ian Snell, Jason Grabow, Freddy Sanchez||Joe Randa, Oliver Perez|
|Nationals||Mike Stanton, Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson||Jose Guillen, Cristian Guzman, Brandon Watson|
|Rangers||Mark DeRosa, Gary Matthews||Laynce Nix, Brad Wilkerson|
|Cardinals||Scott Speizio, Chris Carpenter||Mark Mulder, Jim Edmonds|
|A's||Frank Thomas, Kiko Calero||Huston Street, Antonio Perez, Rich Harden|
|Yankees||Chien-Ming Wang, Derek Jeter||Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, Carl Pavano|
|Devil Rays||Shawn Camp, Mark Hendrickson||Jorge Cantu, Jonny Gomes|
|Orioles||Chris Ray, Ramon Hernandez||Luis Matos, Brian Roberts|
|Braves||Oscar Villereal, Brian McCann||Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francouer|
|Red Sox||Kevin Youkilis, Jon Papelbon||JT Snow, Jason Varitek, Coco Crisp|
|Cubs||Matt Murton, Bobby Howry||Derrek Lee, Mark Prior, Jerry Hairston|
Bear in mind again that these are full-season numbers - Jorge Julio, for example, did his good work in Arizona. Derrek Lee had the worst falloff of any marjor league player, from an EWSL of 27 to 4 Win Shares. It doesn't show here but the Rangers also took big hits from Teixera and Blalock.
Victors Diaz & Zambrano: I'm not sure any expectation on earth survived the 2006 those fellas threw up.
Which is why we all threw up.
To be fair to Matsui & Sheffield, they were injured most of the year. Pavano? Ech.
Imagining that Darin Erstad was an underperformer takes some work. It sounds like whatever his estimation was, it was almost certainly based on some very old numbers. I didn't expect anything from him besides replacement-level offense.
With regards to the Giants, how can you put Mike Matheny as the biggest under-achievers. He played barely half the season, spending most of it on the DL with a closed head injury. The real under performer that could have been a stable-mate of Jason "What Am I Doing On Baseball Field" Ellison is Armando "Blown Save" Benitez.
re: phils win shares for 2007
with freddie garcia and jamie moyer in the rotatation, and assuming cole hamels is the real deal, the Phils will easily get to 250 win shares as a team this year. Howard, Utley and Rollins will give them 100 win shares on offense and defense; Burrell Rowand and Victorino 45-50 win shares on offense and defense; so that's 150 win shares on the offense-defense side alone. That's assuming almost no contribution from catcher or 3rd. Garcia, Myers, Hamels should all be good for about 10-15 win shares, as should Moyer--and Eaton or Lieber will be the fifth starter, so another five win shares there, conservatively 50-75 win shares from the starters. Tom Gordon picked up 15 win shares as a closer last year and the rest of the pen should pick up another 15 win shares, so the staff should pick up about 100-105 win shares.
That makes about 255 win shares.
If any single pitcher has a breakout year, or if any player other than those named has a breakout year, or if the Phils pick up another player, then the winshares rise.
The point is that their base win share level looks really high right now before the season starts.