Baseball Crank
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April 2, 2007
BASEBALL: Fun with PECOTA

Baseball Prospectus' team PECOTA projections ($) have the Mets finishing third in the NL East in scoring, well behind Philly and Atlanta, but winning the division on the strength of the third-fewest runs allowed in the National League.

BP is - unsurprisingly, given the conservatism of their projections - projecting a real shortage of quality starting pitching, especially of the 200+ IP variety. You will have to login or buy the book to get the hard numbers, but PECOTA projects only the following starters to meet the most basic ERA/IP standards:

200+ IP, Sub-3.00 ERA

AL: Johan Santana
NL: None

200+ IP, 3.00-3.99 ERA

AL: Jeremy Bonderman, Roy Halladay, John Lackey, CC Sabathia, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling

NL: Chris Carpenter, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, John Smoltz

100-199 IP, 3.00-3.99 ERA

AL: Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Kelvim Escobar, Rich Harden

NL: Ben Sheets, Cole Hamels, Randy Johnson, Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainwright, Greg Maddux

200+ IP, 4.00-4.49 ERA

AL: Danny Haren

NL: Dontrelle Willis, Aaron Harang, Freddy Garcia

200+ IP, 4.50-4.99 ERA

AL: Jon Garland

NL: None

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:30 PM | Baseball 2007 | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Sounds about right. The Mets finished 3rd in the NL behind those two last year. In the case of the Phils especially, the ballpark really skews the numbers. The Braves may have as good an offense as the Mets (and certainly did last year), but the Phils don't.

Normalized for ballparks, there's no way Howard was as productive as Beltran, even with the additional ten or so games played. Same with Wright vs. Utley and Reyes vs. Rollins.

And after that, who do the Phils have at Delgado's level?

Posted by: Mike at April 2, 2007 1:49 PM

I know this site is not big on Ryan Howard and to be honest I don't really care too much however I did see some of Howard's games last year and I am a believer. Given Philly's bandbox ballpark one would think he posts giant numbers at home. Either he is one consistent dude, a great hitter on the road or an average hitter at home. As good as Beltran's away number were in 2006 Howard's are virtually identical:

Beltran: .317/.683/.406/1.089 26 HR, 78 RBI, 278 ABs (batting .389 on balls in play)

Howard: .318/.662/.427/1.089 29 HR, 74 RBI, 299 ABs (batting .468 on balls in play)

The thing is Howard's numbers are nearly identical at home compared to away. I mean they are freakishly the same. Clearly Howard strikes out more than Beltran but he walks a lot more as well. Beltran is certainly the superior all-around player but Howard seems to hit everywhere. Perhaps the less prodigious guys in Philly are taking greater advantage of that park than Howard.

Posted by: jim at April 2, 2007 2:19 PM

Then Howard should have produced more than he did at home. That may explain why they went only 41-40 in Citizens Bank.

Posted by: Mike at April 2, 2007 2:32 PM

Of their main hitters it appears only Rollins and Utley are better at all at home than away where most others were the same or actually worse at home than on the road. Intuitively this makes no sense.

Posted by: jim at April 2, 2007 3:12 PM
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