Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
April 17, 2007
BASEBALL: Prediction

Mark my words, before this season is out, Henry Owens will be the Marlins' closer. Owens has tough stuff and is off to a fine start, while Florida's imported closer, Jorge Julio, has been lit up like a Roman candle in the early going (19.06 ERA after this evening's shellacking). I give Julio until August at the lastest, but if he doesn't get untracked we could be talking May, not August.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:06 PM | Baseball 2007 | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Not exactly "news" to rotofans:

April 14, 2007
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said yesterday there will be an open competition between Henry Owens, Matt Lindstrom, Randy Messenger and Kevin Gregg and Taylor Tankersley to replace Jorge Julio as the closer, according to the Miami Herald. "We are going to see how it plays out," Gonzalez said. "At some point, we will say, `You're the guy.' I'm comfortable with the guys we have." Having picked up a save Monday, Owens likely is the front-runner, but only time will tell if he can lock down the job.

http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/player/6123/notes

Owens was picked up in my fantasy league a few minutes after Rototimes posted that. The Julio ERA is bad enough, the WHIP is something that I've never seen before in my life.

Posted by: RW at April 18, 2007 6:24 AM

Not sure why the Marlins would even wait til August.

But "baseball men" being baseball men, what else could I expect?

Posted by: Mike at April 18, 2007 7:30 AM

I'm going to use RW's comment to throw a question out to all other fantasy players here.

I have Otsuka, who is back in the setup role now with Gagne being activated. My first impulse was to let Otsuka go and hunt around for another closer (Al Reyes is still available in my league), but on the other hand, Gagne hasn't even been back for a week yet, so maybe I should hang onto Otsuka?

Posted by: mikeski at April 18, 2007 9:35 AM

mikeski,
My personal rule of thumb is that if the person isn't named Griffey, Pavano, Canseco or Pedro, you can't factor injuries into the equation. Gagne could be hurt tonight or he could be fine for the rest of the season....no one knows. That could be said about anyone (who thought BJ Ryan would go down?) I guess it all depends on your personal situation as it pertains to saves. If you're already set & have certifiable closers in their appropriate slots, then Otsuka would only take up a roster-slot on your supplemental team should one of them go on the DL and (other than trade bait) you'd have to experience two separate injuries occurring at the same time (one of your closers PLUS Gagne) before Otsuka would be of any use to you, while Reyes could slide in immediately. Or, to put it this way, how many saves would Otsuka get the rest of the year if Gagne were to go on the DL tonight versus how many Reyes will get?

[Note: I have Gagne on my team & I brought him up this week for Chad Cordero. According to MLB.com, Gagne was hitting 95 mph on Friday night when he got his first save. Apparently, he's fine. He hit around 99 at the height of his career, when he had the greatest season for a closer in MLB history]

For me, it'd have to be a season-ending injury to Gagne - which has happened before, twice - before Otsuka would be more valuable than Reyes, who is off to a 40 save rate.

Posted by: RW at April 18, 2007 11:14 AM

Picked up Owens in my league the other day.

Posted by: Attila (Pillage Idiot) at April 18, 2007 11:27 AM

Thanks RW. That helped clarify it for me.

Posted by: mikeski at April 18, 2007 12:02 PM

Otsuka may have value outside of saves. Does your league use an IP limit? An expanded bench? Daily roster changes? If you have the bench space, setup guys often have good wins per IP, and great K/IP (plus the small contribution to lower your ERA and WHIP). My league uses 23-player rosters and almost every good setup guy (Shields, Wheeler, Otsuka) was gone in the draft.

Posted by: Henry at April 18, 2007 3:46 PM

Sorry to hijack the thread, but I figured this would be read first. I heard on FAN that NBC news received a package from the VIT murderer, which included a video, and photos. He mailed it after his first attack. They did give it to the FBI, but will air the tape. Which they shouldn't. It's not news, it's giving in to a terrorist. So I intend to watch, just to write down the sponsors, and write them, telling them I will no longer buy their products.

Posted by: Daryl Rosenblatt at April 18, 2007 6:02 PM

Daryl,

That's a little reactionary, no? Advertising slots are set up long in advance. There is no realistic way for companies to have pulled their advertising from that spot. Also, is every nutcase now a terrorist? To be honest I have not followed this situation that closely but what little I have heard I believe I heard him refer to himself "dying as Jesus Christ did." If there are actual terrorist links I am in the dark on those. Were the Columbine kids terrorists or just crazy, deluded people with lots of weapons? Seems there is a difference.

Posted by: jim at April 19, 2007 4:33 PM

Continuing the threadjack...whether you call this guy a terrorist depends entirely on how you define the term. On the one hand, he attacked and killed a large number of people in a single attack, many of whom were not personally known to him. That's certainly a terrorist methodology. On the other hand, he worked alone and had no apparent political or religious cause. I'm inclined to use the latter, stricter definition that limits terrorism to situations where you have some sort of political or religious cause, but the alternative definition is a defensible one.

Posted by: The Crank at April 19, 2007 4:39 PM

It would seem you have to use a stricter definition in this day and age. Are guys like him included in this so-called "War on Terror" going on now? Is every nut job who murders people a terrorist? I think it is raising people up like that a little much to include them in the pantheon of people like Bin Laden.

Posted by: jim at April 19, 2007 4:50 PM

The need for a clear definition for Global War on Terror purposes is precisely why I wouldn't include a guy like this; it's mostly been people on the Left that I've seen trying to blur the distinctions between this kind of shooting and organized, international and/or political/religious terrorism.

Posted by: The Crank at April 19, 2007 5:08 PM
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