Baseball Crank: BASEBALL: Not The Year of the Rookie, Part II

June 6, 2007

BASEBALL: Not The Year of the Rookie, Part II

Yesterday, I ran through the rookie crop in the NL. Today, the AL - where, I must admit, the field is stronger the more I look at it, though still weak compared to last season.

Success Stories

Batters

PLAYER	Age	Pos	Team	AB	AVG	SLG	OBP	Other
Travis Buck	23	OF	OAK	131	.252	.504	.359	22 BB, 4 3B
Dustin Pedroia	23	2B	BOS	140	.329	.464	.409	17 BB, 10 K
Reggie Willits	26	OF	LAA	148	.324	.378	.420	14 SB, 28 BB, 26 K
Akinori Iwamura	28	3B	TB	73	.370	.507	.483	16 BB, 11 K, 3 SB, 3 CS
Brendan Harris	26	SS	TB	166	.301	.416	.352	12 BB, 30 K

While the AL has its share of struggling rookies, these five are not a bad foundation at all, albeit Harris is more of a journeyman than a prospect. I don't know if a guy with Willits' extreme lack of power can keep his OBP above .400, but if he can stay in that neighborhood he could be a heck of a player for the next 5 years or so. Iwamura's injury means that we haven't gotten a real chance to assess him yet.

Pitchers

PLAYER	Age	Pos	Team	IP	ERA	BB/IP	K/IP	Other
Hideki Okajima	31	RP	BOS	28.1	1.27	2.22	8.89	26 G, 4 SV, 16 H, 1 HR
Jeremy Guthrie	28	SP	BAL	58.2	2.76	1.53	5.52	3-1, 4 HR
Dustin Mosely	25	RP	LAA	31.0	1.45	1.45	3.77	4-0, 1 HR, 15 G, 2 GS
Joakim Soria	23	RP	KC	22.2	3.57	4.37	9.93	0 HR, 10 SV
Brian Burres	26	SP	BAL	43.2	2.89	5.15	7.01	1 HR
Brandon Morrow	22	RP	SEA	21.2	1.66	7.89	9.97	0 HR, 12 H
Adam Loewen	23	SP	BAL	30.1	3.56	7.71	6.53	2-0, 1 HR
Eric O'Flaherty	22	RP	SEA	18.1	2.95	3.44	4.91	1 HR
Boone Logan	22	RP	CHW	16.0	3.38	1.69	5.63	1 HR
Tyler Clippard	22	SP	NYY	20.0	3.60	4.95	6.30	3-1
Philip Hughes	21	SP	NYY	10.2	3.38	3.38	9.28	1-1

As you can see, while there have been a bunch of successful young pitchers thus far - particularly Leo Mazzone's charges - many of them need to get their strikeouts up or walks down if they are going to last the season. Then again, Mazzone's guys may be specifically concentrating on keeping the ball in the park (0.41 HR/9 between them). Huges and Loewen are supposed to be the highest-ceiling guys in this batch, although for the short term Okajima is providing the most value.

Showing Promise

Batters

PLAYER	Age	Pos	Team	AB	AVG	SLG	OBP	Other
Elijah Dukes	23	OF	TB	165	.200	.424	.314	10 HR, 26 BB, 42 K
Adam Lind	23	OF	TOR	145	.248	.428	.295
Mike Rabelo	27	C	DET	51	.275	.353	.296

It's this category that is weakest in the AL - I'm especially stretching to include Lind, who has shown a tiny bit of power, and Rabelo, who has hit for a decent average as a backup catcher but little else. Dukes, of course, may yet eliminate his opportunity to develop his promising talents, if he can't control his rage.

Pitchers

PLAYER	Age	Pos	Team	IP	ERA	BB/IP	K/IP	Other
Daisuke Matsuzaka	26	SP	BOS	79.2	4.63	2.60	8.59	7-4
John Danks	22	SP	CHW	56.0	4.34	3.54	6.43	3-5, 10 HR
Darrell Rasner	26	SP	NYY	24.7	4.01	2.92	4.01	1-3
Glen Perkins	24	RP	MIN	23.2	3.80	4.56	6.08
Juan Salas	28	RP	TB	13.2	3.95	6.59	7.90

Matsuzaka obviously has star-quality tools and has pitched some wonderful games, but he has yet to find his consistency as a front-of-the-rotation major league starter. Rasner has been one of the brighter spots among the Yankees' emergency-starter crew.

Struggling or Outright Failing

Batters

PLAYER	Age	Pos	Team	AB	AVG	SLG	OBP	Other
Delmon Young	21	OF	TB	217	.249	.396	.289	12 BB, 45 K
Alex Gordon	23	3B	KC	180	.172	.278	.287	8 RBI, 9 HBP, 20 BB, 54 K
Erick Aybar	23	2B	LAA	130	.246	.269	.290
Billy Butler	21	DH	KC	37	.243	.297	.256
Ryan Sweeney	22	OF	CHW	45	.200	.333	.265
Brandon Wood	22	SS	LAA	11	.091	.091	.091

Wood, obviously, got only the briefest cup of coffee. I still expect Gordon to be a star, but he really has been horrendous - like Angel Berroa, all he seems able to do right is get drilled by pitches. The man's in the everyday lineup and has driven in 8 runs.

Pitchers

PLAYER	Age	Pos	Team	IP	ERA	BB/IP	K/IP	Other
Kei Igawa	27	SP	NYY	30.2	7.63	4.11	6.16	2-1, 8 HR
Nick Masset	25	RP	CHW	25.1	7.11	5.68	4.62
Matt DeSalvo	26	SP	NYY	23.0	5.87	6.26	2.35	1-3
Brian Stokes	27	RP	TB	24.1	6.66	2.22	5.92	39 H
Jay Marshall	24	RP	OAK	22.2	5.16	3.18	3.57
Jae Kuk Ryu	24	RP	TB	21.1	5.06	3.80	4.64	1 HR
Dallas Braden	23	RP	OAK	19.2	6.41	2.75	6.86
Jesse Litsch	22	SP	TOR	17.2	6.62	3.57	1.53	1-2, 4 HR
Sean Henn	26	RP	NYY	17.1	5.19	5.71	5.71
Ryan Braun	26	RP	KC	13.2	7.24	5.93	5.93
Chase Wright	24	SP	NYY	8.0	7.88	6.75	6.75	1-0, 5 HR
Jeff Karstens	24	SP	NYY	4.1	14.54	4.15	2.08

Like I said yesterday - rookie pitchers will break your heart. With apologies to David Pinto, Roger Clemens could out-pitch most of these Yankee rookies with one groin tied behind his back. There is a reason why the Yanks' staff has struck out 278 batters while every other major league team is at 314 or better. Granted, guys like Karstens didn't exactly have the luxury of a long look.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:30 PM | Baseball 2007 | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Folks in keeper leagues should be looking to steal players currently labeled as failures. A lot of players struggle initially in the major leagues and then blossom once they get some confidence that they belong.

Posted by: largebill at June 6, 2007 2:20 PM

Gordon is a real mystery. Last nights game with the Tribe is a great example of his season and why I have stated before that he does not seem overmatched. Late in the game he was up with runners in scoring position and hit a bullet, just foul. then struck out. I have seen him repeat this same pattern over and over. At some point those hits are going to start falling in. In the mean time I think they should send him to AAA for about 2 weeks and let him rip the cover off the ball.

Posted by: maddirishman at June 7, 2007 9:56 AM

I'm not sure if you can consider Brendan Harris or Darrell Rasner rookies, since they both put in notable innings for the Nationals last season. Granted, you could make the argument that the 2006 Nats, save for Soriano and Zimmerman, were the equivalent of a Quadruple-A club, but I don't think either of them would be considered a lost "prospect" by Nats fans today.

Posted by: Riley at June 8, 2007 3:35 PM