The last of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Today: the NL Central. Notes on the EWSL method are below the fold. Amazingly, for once I have finished all six divisions before the season is underway in earnest.
Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)
Milwaukee Brewers
Raw EWSL: 195.83 (65 W)
Adjusted: 220.43 (73 W)
Age-Adj.: 224.43 (75 W)
2008 W-L: 88-74
POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | 34 | Jason Kendall | 14 | 12 |
1B | 24 | Prince Fielder# | 19 | 29 |
2B | 25 | Rickie Weeks | 12 | 15 |
SS | 25 | JJ Hardy | 12 | 16 |
3B | 28 | Bill Hall | 15 | 15 |
RF | 26 | Corey Hart# | 12 | 17 |
CF | 35 | Mike Cameron | 20 | 14 |
LF | 24 | Ryan Braun* | 11 | 28 |
C2 | 31 | Mike Rivera | 1 | 1 |
INF | 37 | Craig Counsell | 10 | 6 |
OF | 25 | Tony Gwynn jr.* | 2 | 4 |
12 | 28 | Gabe Gross | 6 | 6 |
13 | 32 | Gabe Kapler | 1 | 1 |
SP1 | 29 | Ben Sheets | 9 | 8 |
SP2 | 22 | Yovanni Gallardo* | 5 | 11 |
SP3 | 33 | Jeff Suppan | 11 | 8 |
SP4 | 28 | David Bush | 8 | 8 |
SP5 | 24 | Carlos Villanueva# | 5 | 6 |
RP1 | 32 | Eric Gagne | 4 | 3 |
RP2 | 30 | Derrick Turnbow | 7 | 6 |
RP3 | 31 | David Riske | 6 | 5 |
RP4 | 36 | Salomon Torres | 6 | 6 |
RP5 | 25 | Manny Parra* | 1 | 2 |
Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers – Eric Munson lost the initial backup catcher battle to Rivera, but may be back. OF Laynce Nix and Russell Branyan were in camp, as were 3B Abraham Nunez and young 2B Joe Dillon. Pitchers – Chris Capuano, who had hoped to see if better defense could help him recover from last year’s catastrophic falloff, faces an uncertain prognosis and may yet need Tommy John surgery. Don’t bank on him. The Brew Crew has also been sentenced, like Sysiphus, to the potential of Seth McClung and Guillermo Mota. Chris Spurling and 39-year-old Brian Shouse are other relief options.
Analysis: The status of preseason favorite in the NL Central is a desirable one but by no means prestigious. The Brewers won 83 games last year, a bunch of their key guys are young, they brought in some veterans like Cameron (once his suspension is up), Riske and Torres…they will compete, and somebody’s gotta win this division.
The rotation is far from imposing in the absence of Capuano, who has to be a longshot to reclaim his old form even if he is able to muddle through. If Sheets somehow stays healthy and Gallardo makes no return trips to the DL (he’s on it now, recovering from offseason knee surgery), they could have a good 1-2, but the rest aspires merely to adequacy. The guys with real upside here are Weeks and Braun, if they can somehow avoid wrecking the defense again, and also the potential for a revival by Hall and Gagne.
88 wins sounds about right. That could be enough.
Houston Astros
Raw EWSL: 202.17 (67 W)
Adjusted: 223.93 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 198.61 (66 W)
2008 W-L: 79-83
POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | 24 | JR Towles+ | 2 | 12 |
1B | 32 | Lance Berkman | 26 | 22 |
2B | 32 | Kaz Matsui | 10 | 9 |
SS | 32 | Miguel Tejada | 19 | 16 |
3B | 30 | Ty Wigginton | 11 | 9 |
RF | 25 | Hunter Pence* | 9 | 20 |
CF | 25 | Michael Bourn* | 2 | 5 |
LF | 32 | Carlos Lee | 21 | 18 |
C2 | 39 | Brad Ausmus | 8 | 7 |
INF | 36 | Mark Loretta | 14 | 10 |
OF | 34 | Darin Erstad | 5 | 5 |
12 | 34 | Jose Cruz jr. | 6 | 5 |
13 | 35 | Geoff Blum | 8 | 5 |
SP1 | 30 | Roy Oswalt | 19 | 16 |
SP2 | 30 | Brandon Backe | 4 | 3 |
SP3 | 29 | Wandy Rodriguez | 5 | 4 |
SP4 | 30 | Shawn Chacon | 5 | 4 |
SP5 | 30 | Chris Sampson# | 4 | 4 |
RP1 | 28 | Jose Valverde | 11 | 11 |
RP2 | 26 | Oscar Villarreal | 4 | 4 |
RP3 | 41 | Doug Brocail | 4 | 3 |
RP4 | 31 | Geoff Geary | 5 | 4 |
RP5 | 36 | Brian Moehler | 2 | 2 |
Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers – C Humberto Quintero, who had a good spring and presumably would step in if the Astros finally realize that Ausmus is finished; Tomas Perez, David Newhan, Reggie Abrecrombie, Victor Diaz. Pitchers – Wesley Wright, a wild young lefty with good K numbers but little experience above AA, made the roster; Mark McLemore, with similar numbers last year in Houston, didn’t. Dave Borkowski, Chad Paronto and Mike DeJean are also around; Woody Williams was a late cut (a terrible spring at 41 after posting a 5.27 ERA will do that; Williams can still throw strikes but I suspect he just has nothing left).
Analysis: For the second year in a row, EWSL seems unaccountably optimistic about the Astros, but I suppose optimistic is a relative term, when a lineup with this many quality veterans, a solid closer and a major ace pitcher is still projected to finish below .500. The new but not improved rotation seems unlikely to be competitive beyond Oswalt, but you never know; maybe this will be the year Backe is finally healthy. The bullpen is totally rebuilt, but in some cases with less than the most consistent relievers. Valverde is solid, but the Win Shares system may overrate him just a bit because of the extreme number of close games the D-Backs led in last season (not that he doesn’t deservie his share of the credit for that).
Geoff Blum is ailing, and it’s not like he’s Mike Schmidt when he is healthy. Matsui is too, but we won’t get into that. Ausmus is the emergency infielder, and that about says it all.
Chicago Cubs
Raw EWSL: 185.83 (62 W)
Adjusted: 216.63 (72 W)
Age-Adj.: 196.25 (65 W)
2008 W-L: 78-84
POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | 25 | Geovany Soto+ | 2 | 12 |
1B | 32 | Derrek Lee | 17 | 15 |
2B | 33 | Mark DeRosa | 13 | 12 |
SS | 28 | Ryan Theriot# | 8 | 9 |
3B | 30 | Aramis Ramirez | 21 | 18 |
RF | 31 | Kosuke Fukudome+ | 0 | 12 |
CF | 23 | Felix Pie* | 3 | 7 |
LF | 32 | Alfonso Soriano | 15 | 14 |
C2 | 36 | Henry Blanco | 3 | 2 |
INF | 25 | Ronny Cedeno | 3 | 3 |
OF | 31 | Reed Johnson | 9 | 7 |
12 | 33 | Daryle Ward | 5 | 4 |
13 | 28 | Mike Fontenot* | 3 | 5 |
SP1 | 27 | Carlos Zambrano | 17 | 16 |
SP2 | 28 | Rich Hill# | 8 | 10 |
SP3 | 32 | Ted Lilly | 12 | 8 |
SP4 | 29 | Jason Marquis | 7 | 6 |
SP5 | 31 | Ryan Dempster | 8 | 7 |
RP1 | 31 | Kerry Wood | 2 | 2 |
RP2 | 25 | Carlos Marmol# | 6 | 8 |
RP3 | 34 | Bobby Howry | 10 | 7 |
RP4 | 29 | Michael Wuertz | 5 | 5 |
RP5 | 36 | Scott Eyre | 5 | 4 |
Subjective Adjustments: None. Felix Pie hit too poorly last season to deserve any sort of bump until he proves himself.
Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers – Alex Cintron lost out on the middle infield reserve job. Matt Murton will almost certainly be traded unless there’s an injury that presses him into service very soon. 2B Eric Patterson is also on hand. Pitchers – The Cubs have them in reserve if needed – Neal Cotts, Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall and Carmen Pignatiello.
Analysis: Why is EWSL so down on the Cubs, when everyone else in the universe seems to have ceded them this division? Age is a big factor: the age adjustments take a big bite out of 30-and-up players like Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Howry, and Lilly, and those add up. Nobody on the team rates more than 18 EWSL; Arizona, Toronto and the White Sox are the only other teams with pretensions at contending that don’t have a 20 EWSL player, and the D-Backs are deep in young talent and pitching, in ways the Cubs aren’t, while I’m less than impressed with the other two. Some guys may be underrated here; Marmol, like Fausto Carmona, is rated in part on his dismal 2006, since I can’t and won’t just make it magically vanish, but Marmol in particular seems likely to come closer to last year’s 11 WS than to the projected 8, just as Derrek Lee does seem likely to stay healthy enough to turn out 20 WS, as his 2006 injury was a fluke. The main upside here is in players who are unproven or a crapshoot – Wood, Soto, Pie and Fukudome. But EWSL is designed to deliver the bad news: by banking on each of them, the Cubs are banking on hope of something that has not happened at the Major League level before. I can see expecting the Cubs to outpace their EWSL record by several game; I can’t see projecting this team as likely to cruise to 90+ wins, even with a boatload of games within a dreadful division.
I don’t know any more about Fukudome than you do. He’s listed at 6’0″ and 190, so he doesn’t quite have Hideki Matsui’s size, and thus may be less reliable in preserving his HR power (and Matsui himself lost quite a few homers in translation). Fukudome’s had great OBPs in Japan, it remains to be seen whether pitchers will work around him as much if he hits for less power here.
Cincinnati Reds
Raw EWSL: 192.00 (64 W)
Adjusted: 211.53 (71 W)
Age-Adj.: 193.18 (64 W)
2008 W-L: 77-85
POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | 31 | Dave Ross | 8 | 7 |
1B | 24 | Joey Votto+ | 2 | 12 |
2B | 27 | Brandon Phillips | 13 | 14 |
SS | 31 | Alex Gonzalez | 11 | 9 |
3B | 25 | Edwin Encarnacion | 13 | 17 |
RF | 38 | Ken Griffey jr. | 13 | 10 |
CF | 28 | Corey Patterson | 9 | 9 |
LF | 28 | Adam Dunn | 19 | 20 |
C2 | 32 | Javier Valentin | 6 | 5 |
INF | 28 | Jeff Keppinger | 5 | 5 |
OF | 32 | Ryan Freel | 8 | 6 |
12 | 29 | Norris Hopper* | 4 | 7 |
13 | 38 | Scott Hatteberg | 11 | 8 |
SP1 | 30 | Aaron Harang | 16 | 14 |
SP2 | 31 | Bronson Arroyo | 14 | 11 |
SP3 | 22 | Johnny Cueto+ | 0 | 4 |
SP4 | 31 | Josh Fogg | 6 | 4 |
SP5 | 24 | Ednison Volquez# | 1 | 1 |
RP1 | 33 | Francisco Cordero | 12 | 9 |
RP2 | 38 | David Weathers | 11 | 9 |
RP3 | 29 | Jeremy Affeldt | 4 | 3 |
RP4 | 27 | Todd Coffey | 4 | 4 |
RP5 | 27 | Jared Burton* | 3 | 5 |
Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers – Jay Bruce, of course, is the elephant in the AAA outfield. Juan Castro is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery (how many times have I written that in these previews this year?) Also OF DeWayne Wise, C Paul Bako and INF Jolbert Cabrera. Pitchers – Homer Bailey got passed on the way up by Cueto; Bailey still has great stuff but has apparently not proven all that swift a learner. Kent Mercker is on the roster; Mike Stanton got cut, and Greg McMichael was not in camp. Matt Belisle is expected to have a job when he is ready. Others include Bill Bray, Gary Majewski, Jon Coutlangus, snf Bobby Livingston.
Analysis: How many stories can Dusty Baker jump out of and still land on his feet? Perricone thinks the answer is “none, unless Barry Bonds is involved.” The decision to bring in Corey Patterson and make him the CF/leadoff man has been hashed out by others, but I wonder if it’s really just a smike screen for the same thing Tampa is doing, and keeping Bruce in the minors until the first time Griffey gets eaten by wolverines (15-day DL) so they can keep Bruce’s service time down. Or, Dusty could just be an idiot.
The Reds are unlikely to be terrible, and that alone will make Baker look fine. There’s not a ton of talent here unless the real youngsters (Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Bailey) go nuts, but there’s enough to hang around .500.
I confess I had no idea Cordero was 33 already; as I noted in November, while he’s not a great pickup he does have a pretty good record at avoiding the longball, which is key in this park.
Is it just me or does Ednison Volquez change the spelling of his name every year?
Pittsburgh Pirates
Raw EWSL: 179.67 (60 W)
Adjusted: 188.57 (63 W)
Age-Adj.: 180.17 (60 W)
2008 W-L: 73-89
POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | 27 | Ronny Paulino# | 10 | 12 |
1B | 28 | Adam LaRoche | 15 | 16 |
2B | 30 | Freddy Sanchez | 20 | 17 |
SS | 30 | Jack Wilson | 16 | 14 |
3B | 27 | Jose Bautista# | 9 | 11 |
RF | 29 | Xavier Nady | 10 | 9 |
CF | 26 | Nate McLouth | 6 | 7 |
LF | 29 | Jason Bay | 18 | 17 |
C2 | 27 | Ryan Doumit | 5 | 5 |
INF | 37 | Chris Gomez | 4 | 3 |
OF | 27 | Njyer Morgan* | 2 | 4 |
12 | 34 | Doug Mientkiewicz | 5 | 5 |
13 | 28 | Chris Duffy | 5 | 6 |
SP1 | 26 | Ian Snell | 8 | 9 |
SP2 | 25 | Tom Gorzelanny# | 7 | 9 |
SP3 | 33 | Matt Morris | 8 | 6 |
SP4 | 26 | Paul Maholm | 6 | 6 |
SP5 | 25 | Zach Duke | 6 | 7 |
RP1 | 24 | Matt Capps# | 9 | 11 |
RP2 | 33 | Damaso Marte | 5 | 3 |
RP3 | 29 | John Grabow | 4 | 3 |
RP4 | 30 | Tyler Yates | 2 | 2 |
RP5 | 26 | Franquelis Osoria | 1 | 1 |
Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers – Matt Kata, Luis Rivas. Pitchers – Evan Meek, Phil Dumatrait, Sean Burnett, John Van Berschoten; Jonah Bayliss was also in camp but seems to have been let go.
Analysis: Maybe this is unfair to some of these guys, but when I was doing the depth charts, anytime I came across some guy who is miserable, washed up or otherwise down on his luck, and I was wondering where he ended up? Pirates camp.
Doug Mientkiewicz? Check.
Jaret Wright? Check.
Casey Fossum? Check.
Matt Morris? Check.
Luis Rivas? Check.
Chris Gomez? Check.
Byun-Hyung Kim? Check.
Elmer Dessens? Check.
They cut Kim, Dessens, Fossum and Wright, but then they traded for Tyler Yates, and gave a bullpen slot to Evan Meek, who has a career minor league ERA of 5.14, has never pitched above AA and has walked 198 batters in 287 career innings. Maybe this isn’t satire.
David Wright, David Ortiz, Jack Wilson, Magglio Ordonez, Todd Helton, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Carlos Pena, Jorge Posada…one of these things is not like the others. That’s the Major League OBP leaders for last August 1 through the end of the year, all of whom slugged above .560 with an OBP of at least .444 for that stretch. Wilson, who hit .409/.467/.697 down the last two months, had batted just .252/.303/.342 before that. (Actually, the whole Pirate offense had a torrid run to the finish line.) It was a bizarre hot streak, but don’t expect a repeat. I do think LaRoche will turn in a better year, but Fredy Sanchez’s early injuries worry me (Duffy is also hurt).
St. Louis Cardinals
Raw EWSL: 174.33 (58 W)
Adjusted: 191.10 (64 W)
Age-Adj.: 179.90 (60 W)
2008 W-L: 73-89
POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
---|---|---|---|---|
C | 25 | Yadier Molina | 11 | 14 |
1B | 28 | Albert Pujols | 34 | 35 |
2B | 32 | Adam Kennedy | 9 | 7 |
SS | 28 | Cesar Izturis | 5 | 5 |
3B | 31 | Troy Glaus | 16 | 14 |
RF | 28 | Skip Schumaker* | 4 | 7 |
CF | 28 | Rick Ankiel* | 4 | 8 |
LF | 27 | Chris Duncan# | 12 | 15 |
C2 | 34 | Jason LaRue | 6 | 5 |
INF | 31 | Aaron Miles | 10 | 8 |
OF | 26 | Brian Barton+ | 0 | 4 |
12 | 29 | Ryan Ludwick | 5 | 5 |
13 | 30 | Rico Washington+ | 0 | 1 |
SP1 | 26 | Adam Wainwright# | 10 | 13 |
SP2 | 29 | Kyle Lohse | 8 | 6 |
SP3 | 29 | Todd Wellemeyer | 3 | 3 |
SP4 | 33 | Braden Looper | 7 | 5 |
SP5 | 26 | Brad Thompson | 5 | 5 |
RP1 | 35 | Jason Isringhausen | 11 | 7 |
RP2 | 39 | Russ Springer | 6 | 5 |
RP3 | 35 | Ryan Franklin | 6 | 4 |
RP4 | 32 | Randy Flores | 2 | 2 |
RP5 | 29 | Joel Pineiro | 3 | 3 |
Subjective Adjustments: None. I could have bumped up Ankiel, but who knows what to expect from him? I at least rated him as a rookie last year, since he’s not the same player he was in 1999.
Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers – Juan Gonzalez is, unsurprisingly, hurt, much to Ryan Ludwick’s relief; Juan Encarnacion is out quite a while. Brendan Ryan is hurt. D’Angelo Jimenez is on hand. Scott Speizio is not, having been cut in late February after an ugly DWI incident. Yes, the Cards have a Brian Barton and a Brian Barden. Colby Rasmus and Joe Mather are the soon-to-arrive power-hitting OF prospects. Pitchers – Much will turn on the impossible-to-predict returns of Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement from injury; Tyler Johnson is also hurt. Anthony Reyes is at the back of the bullpen but remains a promising rotation prospect. Others on hand incluyde Ron Villone, Kelvin JImenez and Kyle McClellan.
Analysis: There are many storylines around the Cardinals this spring, and few happy ones – bad elbows and bad shoulders, steroids and HGH, lawsuits and demon alcohol. Minor league old soldier Rico Washington getting a major league job is one of the nicer ones, but inconsequential in analytical terms. From Pujols’ could-blow-anytime arm on down, it’s a fool’s errand to predict anything of this team, but they won’t be real good, that much is clear.
Pineiro will take one of the rotation spots, probably Thompson (the 5th starter) or Looper (who had a crummy spring) when he returns in a few weeks. LaRussa and Dave Duncan will be called on yet again to work their magic with Lohse, a classic guy nearing 30 with a live arm and not much to show for it, exactly their type.
If you were picking a guy to lose nearly 50 points off his batting average in 2007, you would not have selected LaRue, who had batted .194 the prior year.
Given that Molina is only 25, it may turn out that he will hit some after all; his brother Bengie didn’t hit until he was 28.