Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
June 1, 2008
POLITICS: Puerto Rico Polling

Just a note: I'll update the Obamomentum charts after Tuesday's balloting. From CNN's report on Hillary's victory in today's Puerto Rico primary, it appears that turnout was much, much lower than my back-of-the-envelope projection from the 2004 general gubernatorial election, but Hillary's margin of victory was still 142,000 votes due to her overwhelming 68%-32% margin. In other words, this is the sixth time in three months that Obama has lost a primary by 100,000+ votes.

UPDATE: Patrick Ruffini notes the wide margin by which Hillary's victory exceeded late polls. There are a number of possible explanations for this - perhaps the polling was done poorly, perhaps people who say they will vote for Obama are just disproportionately unlikely to show up to vote, perhaps people even in Puerto Rico are unwilling to admit on the telephone that they are not voting for Obama - but it does rather undermine the idea that Obama's persistent underachieving of the polls and exit polls is just a feature of racist white people.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:47 PM | Politics 2008 • | Poll Analysis | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

As Puerto Ricans can't vote in the presidential election, the entire exercise of a primary strikes me as irrelevant. IF HRC had won 100% of the vote it wouldn't help her one iota in the fall. So why add the PR vote to the cumulative total?

Posted by: feeblemind at June 3, 2008 1:09 AM
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