Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
November 3, 2008
POLITICS: Making It A Long Night

I mostly agree with Allahpundit's view that McCain could be dead and buried early, given some of the poll-closing times:

7 p.m. Indiana, Virginia 7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina 8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri

Granted, there's been talk that Ohio may not be call-able until very late (traditionally, Indiana and Virginia get called pretty quickly, but that may not be true in IN this year), but if McCain's winning the states he needs to stay in the game, I doubt very much that he loses either Ohio or Florida, at least unless something really...wrong is happening in Ohio, a possibility I'm trying to keep out of my mind right now. In fact, I tend to agree with Erick that "if McCain wins Pennsylvania, he's the President. If McCain loses Pennsylvania, he is not the President. It's that simple."

If McCain pulls out PA, even if he loses NH and longer shot 2004 blue states like MN and WI, he can afford to lose IA, VA, CO, and NM out of the 2004 Bush states and still win the election (go here; that gives him a 273-265 lead). If he doesn't take PA, he really does need to hold the line in most of the Bush states besides IA (in which he's been doomed all along due to the politics of ethanol).

Anyway, if McCain is still in the game at 9:30 or 10pm, it will be time to get optimistic, and not before.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:47 AM | Politics 2008 | Comments (22) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Does he really have a chance in PA though? The numbers don't look good.

The only chance McCain has is if conservatives get so sick of hearing the media say "It's over" that they turn out in droves.

Posted by: per14 at November 3, 2008 11:34 AM

I think you have to start with the assumption that the polling is seriously flawed, especially the partisan ID turnout models. Even adjusting for that, no, it doesn't look good. That said, there's a lot of variables in the last 72 hours.

Posted by: Crank at November 3, 2008 11:39 AM

Well, I don't know if McCain has a chance in PA. The publically available polls seem to say no, but McCain has clearly campaigned as though that's his best path to victory. It might be that he already knows he has lost, and just had to spend the last couple of weeks somewhere, or perhaps his internal polling is significantly different from what's available to us. He's at best a longshot, but that's better than being a no-shot.

Posted by: Jerry at November 3, 2008 11:51 AM

You must consider the early voting numbers. Example NC had 40% turnout for early voting. By mid-afternoon the early voting states may have most precincts reporting.

Posted by: javaman at November 3, 2008 11:54 AM

Oddly, I discovered this morning that there are a number of last-minute lawsuits attempting to get Obama's name off of state ballots because he is not a US citizen. I was in the courtroom for the Connecticut hearing on the state's motion to dismiss, which was heard by the chief justice of the CT Supreme Court. After very brief oral arguments, the lawsuit, which was filed by a citizen against the CT Sec. of State, was dismissed for lack of standing.

It seemed to be a very clear instance of lack of standing, but the suit was filed by a pro se party, so there may be better arguments out there.

If the underlying claims had any merit, I would think this issue would have been litigated a long time ago.

Posted by: MVH at November 3, 2008 12:02 PM

I should modify that last post a bit. The motion to dismiss was granted, but the court did not specify the ground. The state raised a number of other arguments, e.g., that the Sec. State was not the proper party to sue because she had no authority to remove the name from the ballot. That being said, standing seemed the least challenging basis to grant the motion.

Posted by: MVH at November 3, 2008 12:13 PM

If the underlying claims had any merit, I would think this issue would have been litigated a long time ago.

I 'tend' to agree with you. However, I still can't shake free of the fact that, if Obama was truly born in the United States and, under Constitutional guidelines, is eligible to run for President, why has he refused to release his birth certificate?

All that was released was a certificate of live birth from Hawaii which does NOT prove he was born in the United States. A certificate of live birth can be received on request from a U.S. parent if their child is born out of the country. It does not prove that Obama was born on U.S. soil.

To me, if I was in Obama's shoes, I'd just release all the information so I could shut people up. I don't understand why this is such a big deal. Furthermore, I don't understand why he's not being forced to show a legitimate birth certificate.

You can be damn sure that the certificate of live birth would NOT be enough to get a job as a Secret Service agent, let alone should it be enough to run for the President of the United States.

Posted by: Agent W at November 3, 2008 1:28 PM

I wouldn't be putting any Champagne on ice if I were you. Odds are your great-granddaddy and his nurse are going down and going down hard. Then you can switch from all the boring stuff no one but 5% of the public cares about regarding Obama's history to hopefully less boring stuff about how you hate everything and every policy enacted. The funny thing is, provided this seemingly inevitable win comes to fruition, that y'all have talked ad nauseum about how he's a socialist, marxist, communist, terrorist-sympothizer and whatnot so when all this does not actually materialize over the preceding 4 years what are you going to do and say then? I'm sure you are confident that we will be Holland by 2012 under Obama. I'd bet against you that were not.

Posted by: jim at November 3, 2008 1:35 PM

Yeah, at the end there that's "we're" not "were". Sorry.

Posted by: jim at November 3, 2008 1:36 PM

Side note: KY closes at 6 pm. If McCain opens up a big win there, it could provide some help.

Posted by: JEN at November 3, 2008 1:39 PM

Agent W:

Doesn't this really settle the issue?

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html

Posted by: MVH at November 3, 2008 1:40 PM

@MVH: Come on, facts have nothing to do with the arguments of the type of people making such asinine arguments.

Posted by: Mike at November 3, 2008 2:38 PM

MVH:

If I actually trusted FactCheck.org to be truly bi-partisan, as they claim, that would probably suffice.

Except, I have a contention with their statement that his 'short form' birth certificate is enough information to satisfy getting a passport, let alone to become President of the United States. It's the same certificate that is routinely filled out, after the fact, when sons or daughters of U.S. citizens are born out of country.

If he was born in Hawaii then there's absolutely no reason as to why he has not be yet been able to produce a long form birth certificate.

Let me step back for a second. Do I believe Barack Obama is a U.S. Citizen? Yes, I do. I don't believe the Democrats would put up a candidate that wouldn't pass the basic requirements for the Presidency as set forth in the Constitution.

My argument is simply about the continuing patterns of Obama's behavior and how he feels he's above and beyond all reproach. That he can say he represents change and hope and transparency, all the while furthering divisiveness, pushing race baiting to new highs, and running one of the most secretive campaigns (no Illinois senate records, no occidental records, no harvard records, no columbia records) I can remember.


Posted by: Agent W at November 3, 2008 2:55 PM

"If he was born in Hawaii then there's absolutely no reason as to why he has not be yet been able to produce a long form birth certificate."

According to fact check:

"The Hawaii Department of Health's birth record request form does not give the option to request a photocopy of your long-form birth certificate, but their short form has enough information to be acceptable to the State Department. We tried to ask the Hawaii DOH why they only offer the short form, among other questions, but they have not given a response."

If Hawaii won't give -anyone- a long form, then how is Obama supposed to release it??? I don't see how this is his fault or how he is being obstructionist on this issue.


Posted by: MVH at November 3, 2008 3:18 PM

MVH, let me make it simple: The far right is for state's rights as long as it helps them; since Hawaii has rules that don't help them now, they are bad.

Posted by: Daryl Rosenblatt at November 3, 2008 3:22 PM

McCain still has a legitimate chance in PA. The key is in the 4 Suburban counties around Philadelphia and Southwest PA & Pittsburgh. McCain's more centrist positions play well in the Southeast and to a lesser extent in general across PA (see: Sens. Specter & Casey as well as former Gov. Ridge).

He even made a campaign stop yesterday in Delaware County (SE PA) and Mayor Guiliani was in suburban Philadelphia again this morning.

While it would be somehwat of an upset, if McCain can pull out a slight edge in Southeast PA and the Southwest where it looks like Jack Murtha could lose his Congressional seat (at least some good may come out of this election), he can offset the huge vote defecit that will come from Philadelphia and then win the state by winning the Central and Northern counties.

No matter what, it will not be a double-digit Obama victory as some have predicted.

Posted by: PA Young Republican at November 3, 2008 4:03 PM

MVH:

"The Hawaii Department of Health's birth record request form does not give the option to request a photocopy of your long-form birth certificate,

It says the request form does not 'give the option'. Do you really believe that if Barack Obama asked for the long form he would be denied? Please.

Posted by: Agent W at November 3, 2008 5:03 PM

Agent W: If you are willing to take the argument that far, I don't think anything Obama does will please you.

Posted by: MVH at November 3, 2008 8:24 PM

You guys must have some seriously good drugs.

Posted by: Magrooder at November 3, 2008 9:13 PM

Agent W: If you are willing to take the argument that far, I don't think anything Obama does will please you.

Take it so far as to suggest that Obama should be forced to supply a long form birth certificate? I didn't realize expecting the potential President of the United States to provide documentary proof of birth (long form, as short form is not fully acceptable) that is required by many states to be a state cop was taking it 'that far'.

As I said, it goes to a long standing air of secrecy surrounding Obama. And I'll repeat... I fully believe Obama is a U.S. citizen. However, I'm tired of his secrecy and attitude that he's beyond reproach and beyond questioning.

Posted by: Agent W at November 3, 2008 10:10 PM

"y'all have talked ad nauseum about how he's a socialist, marxist, communist, terrorist-sympothizer and whatnot "

If Obama wins the election, that just proves Americans want a socialist, marxist, communist, terrorist sympathizer, and whatnot to lead them.
There might just be hope for this country yet.

Posted by: Berto at November 4, 2008 2:01 PM

This was in fact not your typical election, so it was hard to distinguish anything. Especially the fact that an Ivy-Leaguer with no experience, and his elitist illuminati associates could win an election in times like these.

Posted by: Ms. Know at November 13, 2008 10:50 AM
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