Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
February 3, 2009
WAR: China

Another excellent essay over at The New Ledger; I would especially recommend the section on what's going on inside China these days.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:24 PM | War 2007-12 | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Great link Crank- It is almost like we live in a very dangerous world and people that walk around worrying and blathering about how other countries view and like us are clueless, naive morons.

Snark mode off- I would add though that things are never as bad as they seem. Examples- India is becoming a closer ally and will serve as a bulwark against the Chinese. They also have a demographic problem from their population control policies that is going to start hitting in about 20 or so years. The declining oil prices likewise will limit Russia's and Venezuela's potential for mischief.

Posted by: dch at February 4, 2009 10:35 AM

It's clearly in US' national interest to check Russia and China, but I found the article slightly hysterical given the evidence it cited. China issues its white paper on defense yearly, so it's nothing to get in a huff about. Check China and Russia when they need to be checked, but let's not jump to any conclusions.

The US -should-, as China's white paper envisages, expand its influence and strengthen its ties in southeast Asia. As dch's point is well taken about the role of India in keeping China in line as well as their own economic problems.

Posted by: MVH at February 4, 2009 3:06 PM

I thought the most interesting stuff was about China's internal issues, esp. the migrant workers. The official numbers are eye-popping, and as noted, those are usually lowballed.

Posted by: Crank at February 4, 2009 3:12 PM

Yes, China does look like it has a huge problem on its hands. They better get used to slower growth for a while. Given those conditions, I worry more about China's mercantalism than I do about their military goals.

Posted by: MVH at February 4, 2009 3:26 PM

Yes, China does look like it has a huge problem on its hands. They better get used to slower growth for a while. Given those conditions, I worry more about China's mercantalism than I do about their military goals.

Posted by: MVH at February 4, 2009 3:26 PM

I would suggest that militarily we probably need to start focusing more on naval and space power and converting our land forces to more of a fast response Marines type of force. I am a little behind on our trade polices in Asia, but perhaps we could create some sort of Asian free trade construct with say Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand and other friendly countries to counteract China.

Posted by: dch at February 4, 2009 4:14 PM

While the general article makes good points, I think he drew the lines between the dots a bit too much there. From someone living in Taiwan and obviously in close contact with China (and with a large numbers of relatives in China too)

a. The Migrant workers are not just what the article describe them to be, many are / were also farmers with wife / husbands / kids / parents still on the farm. obviously it's not going to solve ALL the problems but it's not a total annihilation of their life for them to lose their jobs on the coast (which isn't exactly high paying to begin with)

b. most Chinese familes are high savers. what the article described isn't completely true, they might not have a lot of money ON HAND because most of it was sent back to their homes in the rural area. due to the lack of social security in China, civilian saving rate is naturally very high.

c. politically, that article almost assumes that just because China is not a democracy, it doesn't have different political forces at work, that's just not true, most of the guys in power today are clearly moderates. they are quiet aware of that they need a considerable boom for awhile longer to get by the transitional stage. and they're obviously moving in that direction politically. their rhetorics may sound archanic at times, but their real moves are fairly realistic and rational.

That's not to say that the situation described in the article CAN'T happen, but it's unless the situation gets A LOT worse.

Posted by: RollingWave at February 9, 2009 3:25 AM
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