Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
March 19, 2009
BASEBALL: 2008 EWSL Team Review

I'm short on time, so with only minimal comment I'll present the table comparing the 2008 Established Win Shares Levels to the teams' actual results, with the caveats noted in last year's writeup.

YearTeamEWSL23-Man WS23-Man WS-EWSL2008 WinsTotal WSRestTotal WS-EWSLEWSL WWin Diff
2008Rays175.5023862.509729153115.507126
2008Cubs196.2525760.75972913494.757819
2008Marlins160.6420039.36842525291.366618
2008Cardinals179.9022747.10862583178.107214
2008Rangers162.5117815.49792375974.496613
2008A's161.69151-10.69752257463.31669
2008Astros198.6123233.39862582659.39788
2008White Sox207.9123325.09892673459.09818
2008Red Sox226.0326235.97952852358.97887
2008Angels247.0826618.921003003452.92955
2008Twins211.73204-7.73882646052.27835
2008Phillies223.7626036.24922761652.24875
2008Giants164.47164-0.47722165251.53675
2008Blue Jays207.682146.32862584450.32815
2008Brewers224.432294.57902704145.57873
2008Royals182.53178-4.53752254742.47732
2008Orioles166.921725.08682043237.08680
2008Dodgers220.33186-34.33842526631.6786-2
2008Reds193.18180-13.18742224228.8277-3
2008Pirates180.171876.83672011420.8372-5
2008Mets248.56209-39.56892675818.4495-6
2008Braves204.88176-28.88722164011.1280-8
2008D-Backs238.71221-17.7182246257.2992-10
2008Yankees265.51224-41.5189267431.49101-12
2008Rockies221.36186-35.3674222360.6486-12
2008Padres192.29158-34.296318931-3.2976-13
2008Nationals186.88120-66.885917757-9.8874-15
2008Indians255.44210-45.448124333-12.4497-16
2008Mariners220.97156-64.976118327-37.9786-25
2008Tigers267.18180-87.187422242-45.18101-27

Notes:

-Somehow, the A's and Dodgers always seem to end up near the top of the list for most Win Shares earned by guys not on the pre-season 23-man depth chart. Clearly, Beane and Ned Colletti are not guys to sit back and watch 'em play.

-EWSL was markedly less accurate as a predictor in 2008 than in 2007. As I discussed in the age evaluations, the entire sample of MLB players I rated ended up further below their EWSL than in the past. Only nine teams' preseason 23-man rosters finished within 15 Win Shares (5 wins) of their baseline. That said, of course, EWSL is just a baseline-expectations tool, and by nature it will be frustrated when teams over or underachieve reasonable expectations. It's unsurprising that the Rays and Tigers were the furthest off the mark.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:07 PM | Baseball 2009 • | Baseball Studies | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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