Baseball Crank: BASEBALL: 2008 EWSL Team Review

March 19, 2009

BASEBALL: 2008 EWSL Team Review

I'm short on time, so with only minimal comment I'll present the table comparing the 2008 Established Win Shares Levels to the teams' actual results, with the caveats noted in last year's writeup.

Year	Team	EWSL	23-Man WS	23-Man WS-EWSL	2008 Wins	Total WS	Rest	Total WS-EWSL	EWSL W	Win Diff
2008	Rays	175.50	238	62.50	97	291	53	115.50	71	26
2008	Cubs	196.25	257	60.75	97	291	34	94.75	78	19
2008	Marlins	160.64	200	39.36	84	252	52	91.36	66	18
2008	Cardinals	179.90	227	47.10	86	258	31	78.10	72	14
2008	Rangers	162.51	178	15.49	79	237	59	74.49	66	13
2008	A's	161.69	151	-10.69	75	225	74	63.31	66	9
2008	Astros	198.61	232	33.39	86	258	26	59.39	78	8
2008	White Sox	207.91	233	25.09	89	267	34	59.09	81	8
2008	Red Sox	226.03	262	35.97	95	285	23	58.97	88	7
2008	Angels	247.08	266	18.92	100	300	34	52.92	95	5
2008	Twins	211.73	204	-7.73	88	264	60	52.27	83	5
2008	Phillies	223.76	260	36.24	92	276	16	52.24	87	5
2008	Giants	164.47	164	-0.47	72	216	52	51.53	67	5
2008	Blue Jays	207.68	214	6.32	86	258	44	50.32	81	5
2008	Brewers	224.43	229	4.57	90	270	41	45.57	87	3
2008	Royals	182.53	178	-4.53	75	225	47	42.47	73	2
2008	Orioles	166.92	172	5.08	68	204	32	37.08	68	0
2008	Dodgers	220.33	186	-34.33	84	252	66	31.67	86	-2
2008	Reds	193.18	180	-13.18	74	222	42	28.82	77	-3
2008	Pirates	180.17	187	6.83	67	201	14	20.83	72	-5
2008	Mets	248.56	209	-39.56	89	267	58	18.44	95	-6
2008	Braves	204.88	176	-28.88	72	216	40	11.12	80	-8
2008	D-Backs	238.71	221	-17.71	82	246	25	7.29	92	-10
2008	Yankees	265.51	224	-41.51	89	267	43	1.49	101	-12
2008	Rockies	221.36	186	-35.36	74	222	36	0.64	86	-12
2008	Padres	192.29	158	-34.29	63	189	31	-3.29	76	-13
2008	Nationals	186.88	120	-66.88	59	177	57	-9.88	74	-15
2008	Indians	255.44	210	-45.44	81	243	33	-12.44	97	-16
2008	Mariners	220.97	156	-64.97	61	183	27	-37.97	86	-25
2008	Tigers	267.18	180	-87.18	74	222	42	-45.18	101	-27

Notes:

-Somehow, the A's and Dodgers always seem to end up near the top of the list for most Win Shares earned by guys not on the pre-season 23-man depth chart. Clearly, Beane and Ned Colletti are not guys to sit back and watch 'em play.

-EWSL was markedly less accurate as a predictor in 2008 than in 2007. As I discussed in the age evaluations, the entire sample of MLB players I rated ended up further below their EWSL than in the past. Only nine teams' preseason 23-man rosters finished within 15 Win Shares (5 wins) of their baseline. That said, of course, EWSL is just a baseline-expectations tool, and by nature it will be frustrated when teams over or underachieve reasonable expectations. It's unsurprising that the Rays and Tigers were the furthest off the mark.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:07 PM | Baseball 2009 • | Baseball Studies | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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