Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
November 21, 2009
BASEBALL: Ray of Offense

In 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays finished last, 30 games under .500. In 2008, they won the AL pennant. In 2009, they went 84-78 and missed the playoffs.

How much variance was there in their offense to explain those? Let's look first at the raw numbers of how the team's offense performed, compared to the league average:

TmR/G 6HRSBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGGDP
TBD4.831871314854513240.2680.3360.433119
20074.90161973553610530.2710.3380.423137
TBR4.781801425062612240.2600.3400.422111
20084.78162943553710600.2680.3360.420136
TBR4.961991946164212290.2630.3430.439104
20094.821831103955010940.2670.3360.428130

Then, each season's numbers translated into the 2009 context, for uniformity of context:

R/G 6HRSBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGGDP
20074.752131495355913760.2640.3340.438113
20084.822031665664112630.2590.3400.430106
20094.961991946164212290.2630.3430.439104

As you can see, the offensive context has fluctuated, but when you adjust for the league, Tampa's offense has shown gradual, year-on-year improvement, albeit not dramatic improvement, with the offense becoming incrementally more patient, more successful making contact, and less dependent upon the home run ball. But clearly, the major variable over the past three seasons has been the pitching and defense, not the offense.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 5:23 PM | Baseball 2009 | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

While it was a total team effort that took them out of the play-offs in 2009 the offense (along with the miserable bullpen) would have to have some accountability. In the 48-41 first-half TB was

.271/.353/.453

before devolving into a 36-37 second half of

.252/.330/.422

What stood out to me was that in the first half they stole 133 bases while being thrown out only 30 times (a pretty phenomenal 81.6 success rate). In the second half they stole 61 bases while being thrown out 31 times (a less than acceptable 66.3 success rate). Seems there has to be some correlation with running into more outs, having less guys on second base and, in general, posing less of a running threat that lead to a far lower run total.

Posted by: jim at November 22, 2009 3:32 PM
Site Meter 250wde_2004WeblogAwards_BestSports.jpg