Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
March 21, 2010
BASEBALL: EWSL 2010 Age and Rookie Baselines

It's time once again, however belatedly, for my annual division previews using Established Win Shares Levels, which are explained here. Before we get to rolling out the 2010 EWSLs, I have to update the age adjustments and rookie values I use each year. These are based on the data I have gathered over the past six seasons, and so with each passing year, one would hope they become progressively more stable and useful in evaluating the established talent base on hand for each team entering each season. As a reminder: EWSL is not a prediction system. It's a way of assessing the resources on hand. Time, chance, and mid-season replacements happen to all.

First up is the age adjustments; I've reformatted the table a bit from year to year. See my writeups on the age adjustments following the 2004 season - also here - 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons. Here's the 2009 age adjustments (i.e, how each age of non-pitcher or pitcher stacked up to their un-age-adjusted EWSL), and the totals for 2004-09 - in some ways, if you study these sorts of things, the numbers accumulated over this many seasons become interesting in themselves:

2009Total
Age#WSEWSL%#WSEWSL%
21-11982.37555242.001.238
22236132.76926414207.871.992
23999981.01055694560.501.238
24161631411.1569912921014.311.274
25364963841.29215118441482.401.244
26294103871.05917419901779.671.118
27283273151.03819121172025.831.045
28353383510.96321024562409.531.019
29344014070.98518922632393.470.945
30243533251.08619822412481.170.903
31312943100.94818519002251.040.844
32231642590.63317116782099.830.799
33323493950.88414715191796.770.845
34151441700.84711611751371.330.857
35192532650.9551089311240.670.750
36527480.56376700927.830.754
37141191950.61062509789.330.645
38642730.57539316453.500.697
3917140.50027280361.830.774
40+314250.56033242448.660.539
363405541830.96922622461326137.550.942

It was a tough year for the 28-year-olds and the over-35 crowd, but the 30- and 35-year-olds had a banner year, confounding prior trends of age 35 being a dramatic falloff. The 30-year-olds were bolstered by players like Nick Johnson and Victor Martinez rebounding from injury, while the 35-year-old cohort was strong in depth - Jeter, Tejada, Helton, Ichiro, Damon, Abreu, Casey Blake. That said, history still cautions to beware of 35-year-olds.

Then, the pitchers:

2009Total
Age#WSEWSL%#WSEWSL%
21-11250.00096843.001.581
221470.57127196173.601.129
23974461.60956416373.761.113
241180741.08191645572.371.127
25342602411.0791421001910.401.100
26291821631.11716410801002.201.078
27291391870.74315610381131.560.917
28251792220.80616211221178.300.952
2917851130.7521559991149.310.869
30282082530.8221569501123.400.846
3123971470.660132812983.470.826
32201541610.957104649837.460.775
331154890.60782434633.300.685
3414111991.12170373485.630.768
35829291.00052235343.170.685
36745381.18446264292.170.904
37417270.63037240291.330.824
38313170.76537247310.000.797
39633510.64727197228.330.863
40+732550.58262430594.340.723
287180820240.89317671139612657.090.900

Tough year all around, with the rot setting in as early as age 27 - the dramatic falloff in pitchers in their late 20s is driven heavily by injuries - while the age 34-36 survivors, though few in number, prospered, though other than Chris Carpenter it was mostly low-expectations relievers.

Finally, the rookie adjustments:

Type of Player# in 2009WS in 2009# 2004-09WS 2004-09Rate
Everyday Players6445862910.84
Bench Players (Under 30)1892622514.05
Bench Players (Age 30+)11430.75
Rotation Starters1036281134.04
Relief Pitchers42115865.73
TOTAL3919416710826.48

Not a whole lot of alteration to historical patterns there.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:02 PM | Baseball 2010 • | Baseball Studies | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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