Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
November 1, 2010
POLITICS: Election Predictions

Busy day, I didn't get to anything I'd meant to blog about, even with the World Series in full swing and the elections tomorrow.

Quick predictions.

HOUSE: GOP definitely takes the majority (+39 seats required), and I'll be surprised if the gains are less than 60 seats, which seems mind-blowing but there are a lot of good arguments floating around for numbers even crazier than that. Alan Grayson is toast. We'll know we're through the looking glass if people like Barney Frank and John Dingell lose, but I'm not prepared to believe Steny Hoyer is actually in trouble. But Charlie Rangel should win easily and proceed to trial.

SENATE: If I had to bet it would be GOP +8; I'm guessing 7-9 pickups, but I don't expect the +10 to retake a majority (+9 puts Joe Biden in the Senate as a tiebreaker). I'd been assuming the Reid-Angle race would go to a recount, but Angle seems to be putting it away at the end. Colorado, Illinois and possibly Washington could all be nail-biters. Russ Feingold is the biggest surprise casualty among races that are no longer in doubt.

I think Joe Miller will pull it out in Alaska. I'm expecting O'Donnell to lose in Delaware by maybe 8-9 points (I do think it will be closer than some of the polls), but if she wins, well, you can throw all my projections out the window and the Democrats are in for a night we haven't seen the likes of in living memory.

GOVERNORS: Not following the tote board on these as closely, but I'm guessing a net of around +8 for the Republicans, who could swipe as many as 13 or 14 Democratic-held Governorships but stand to lose a number as well (unlike in Congress, where Democratic pickups will be nearly nonexistant outside the Delaware at-large House seat and maybe 3 or 4 others). I'm more guardedly optimistic now that Rick Scott will hang on in Florida, the most important of the contested governor's races (I feel pretty confident about Bill Brady in Illinois).

Down the ballot, also look for the GOP to finally break the last remnants of the post-Confederacy Solid South by retaking some Southern legislatures it hasn't held since Reconstruction.

And I meant to write a better plug for him after attending a fundraiser last week, but if I don't get the time: vote for Harry Wilson for NY State Comptroller. He's a really impressive guy and, among other things, the first statewide challenger since Pat Moynihan in '76 to be endorsed by the Times, the News and the Post (the Wall Street Journal doesn't endorse but has been giving him a lot of coverage).

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:57 PM | Politics 2010 | Comments (26) | TrackBack (0)
Comments

my floor is now at least +55 House seats and +7 Senate seats. It could get ridiculous on the House side (like into the 80s)and the Republicans could regain the Senate if all the dominoes fall correctly. Governorships? we will have 31-34 by the end of the night.

Posted by: dch at November 1, 2010 8:44 PM

70+ in the house and 10-11 in the Senate. I think the wave is being underestimated.

Posted by: feeblemind at November 2, 2010 12:19 AM

What I have noticed is in most cases if the polling is close the Republican wins. I would not count O'Donnell out and I think Palin will pull Miller to victory. Reid is going down.

House 70+
Senate 10

Nine would be ok in the Senate too. Put Biden up and make him cast deciding votes. That will just be another nail in the Dims coffen come 2012. I also think that Libermann would be likely to caucus on our side. He is kind of a front runner.

Posted by: Terry Kelly at November 2, 2010 7:41 AM

I don't think Libermann caucuses with the GOP. But, I do think he straddles the fence on everything and essentially becomes the most powerful man in the country (slight exaggeration) for two years.

House: +60
Senate: + 9

Alaska is going to get weird. I think Miller finishes last, not first, and then it becomes a question about the validity of all of Murkowski's write-in votes. I've read some frightening scenarios where McAdams wins because of how goofy it is in Alaska to vote for a write-in candidate. But maybe those are doomsday scenarios.

I think the race to watch is W.Va Senate. If Raese pulls that out, it's going to get uglier than we expect for Democrats. Yesterday he was polling a few points behind.

Posted by: per14 at November 2, 2010 9:29 AM

The GOP will gain seats and make the citizens lives much, much worse than they already are.
No, that's not my prediction.
This is: When their lives get worse, those same GOP voters will blame it on minorities, immigrants, and the poor.
Take it to the bank, because that prediction is as solid a lock as you'll ever see.

Posted by: Berto at November 2, 2010 1:31 PM

Berto, do you even know the word "humility"? Is self-awareness not spoken of in your household? "Take it to the bank"?

Dude, you are the site lunatic. Know your place.

Speaking of laughing, TV ought to be a scream when the returns start coming in.

Posted by: spongeworthy at November 2, 2010 3:25 PM

I'm shocked but I think Crank's prognostications seem reasonable. Between the lunatics of the Tea Party and the fear they breed in the GOP leadership, it ought to be fun watching the GOP pretend to govern. The next two years are setting up an Obama landslide.

Oh, and Crank, Christine O'Donnell has no shot whatsoever. Even the people of Delaware are not that dumb.

Posted by: Magrooder at November 2, 2010 5:38 PM

Christine O'Donnell is a long shot, not a "no shot". But you just keep patting yourself on the back because the GOP loses one seat in a very very blue state. You don't get it--people by and large hate you guys.

Your tears, they are so sweet. What fun this will be tonight!

Posted by: spongeworthy at November 2, 2010 8:02 PM

I gave the GOP most of my votes this time around, including McMahon in the US Senate. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blumenthal, though it looks like we'll get him anyway.

I am glad, though, that O'Donnell will lose by a comfortable margin. She doesn't belong in office.

Posted by: MVH at November 2, 2010 10:27 PM

I gave the GOP most of my votes this time around, including McMahon in the US Senate. I couldn't bring myself to vote for Blumenthal, though it looks like we'll get him anyway.

I am glad, though, that O'Donnell will lose by a comfortable margin. She doesn't belong in office.

Posted by: MVH at November 2, 2010 10:29 PM

Magrooder,

Just remember that any Obama landslide will depend on independents like me. Overreaching on health care reform and an ill-conceived cap-and-trade bill is not the right way to proceed. We'll see what his second two years look like. He better make sure he gets results on getting our long-term budget problems under control.


Posted by: MVH at November 2, 2010 10:46 PM

Money where your mouth is, spongeworthy?
How about it?
Ready to give me odds on my lock?
---------
You call me a "lunatic". What was it? When I was right about the Iraq war, or was it when I called deregulation of the financial markets a disaster waiting to happen?
I'm a "lunatic" alright. In the same way Crank gives a flying fuck about 9/11.
Answer: As it's been proven, time and time again, not at all.

Posted by: Berto at November 3, 2010 1:59 AM

"Speaking of laughing, TV ought to be a scream when the returns start coming in."
-----------
Oh my God, the party in the pockets of corporate America has been replaced by the other party in the pockets of corporate America. Run for the hills!

Posted by: Berto at November 3, 2010 2:06 AM

Berto, your last comment is the most intelligent I have ever seem you write. The lone spot of really good news is the candidates supported by the tea-party who won can now form a voting block and have a margin of control of the agenda...if they are that organized.

Posted by: Terry Kelly at November 3, 2010 9:33 AM

If Mike Castle was considered such a lock to win that Biden's son chickened out, how did Delaware become such a blue state? Easy, run an idiot as the GOP candidate.

Posted by: Magrooder at November 3, 2010 10:16 AM

Sorry, Terry. The Tea party is nothing but the Republican party with a name change.
Corporate America still owns the agenda.

Posted by: Berto at November 3, 2010 11:41 AM

The 7 stages of the Berto reader:

1) Initial ridicule of his ignorance
2) An honest attempt at education and debate
3) Realization that he is beyond education
4) A return to ridicule
5) Boredom from seeing the same arguments
6) Disregarding his posts
7) Empathy for those going through steps 1-5

Posted by: MVH at November 3, 2010 12:50 PM

MVH,
Great job on number 6, jenius.

Posted by: Berto at November 3, 2010 12:52 PM

2) An honest attempt at education and debate = Denial of reality.
3) Realization that he is beyond education = Realization that Hannity and Rush's talking points can't dent reality.
-------
Remember, those like MVH and Crank are sure the Tea Party is totally different from the Republican Party because the Tea Party is fiscally conservative.
Read between the lines.
MVH, Crank and the Tea Party now agree with what I've been saying since the mid-1980s: The Republican party is in no way fiscally conservative.

Posted by: Berto at November 4, 2010 1:27 PM

"You call me a "lunatic". What was it? When I was right about the Iraq war . . . ?"

Berto, you weren't even right about the Iraq war two weeks ago (something about 1) the military being fought to a standstill, 2) by a bunch of teenagers). If you can't get it right after the fact, nobody will think you got it right before the fact.

Posted by: TANSTAAF Lunch at November 4, 2010 3:49 PM

BTW-to the various lefties on the site-how goes all those Congressional and criminal investigations into Haliburton and the other bogey men that Michael Moore, et al created and the various "war crimes" of the Bush Admin? You know the ones that lefties swore were going to happen, 4, 3, 2, 1 years ago? I mean it wasn't like the media and democrats just made up a lot of BS to keep brain dead lefties in a constant state of agitation, no, no, no -it actualluy exists. So where are the indictments???

Posted by: dch at November 5, 2010 10:49 AM

TANSTAAF Lunch,
Iraq. We went to war 7 and a half years ago. We have won NOTHING. I think that's called fighting to a standstill.
Who were we fighting? A group of teenagers with guns they stole under Gen. Patreus' nose (the guy lost over 90,000 weapons---here's hoping someone in the media asks "the Saint" if that was intentional) and IEDs.
Please provide your alternative to reality regarding the Iraq war.

Posted by: Berto at November 5, 2010 10:55 AM

dch,
With Saddam's WMDs, perhaps?
Maybe Crank saw them move to Syria too.

Posted by: Berto at November 5, 2010 11:02 AM

So berto now you are admitting that the Dems just played people like you and really didn't have anything. That only took 6 years.

Again regarding Iraq I will defer to my many posts outlining everything that occurred between 1990-2003 that you and your cohorts want to pretend didn't occur. When you finally acknowledge thos things, you probably wont be so deranged.

Posted by: dch at November 5, 2010 1:48 PM

dch,
"Everything" that occurred between 1990-2003? You mean like Halliburton subsidiaries doing business with Saddam Hussein during a trade embargo? Take a wild guess who Halliburton's CEO was during this time period. I'll give you a hint: A recent US VP, and someone who should be in shackles for his war crimes.

When you finally acknowledge those things... who am I kidding, you're a conservative. Acknowledging the truth is a non-starter for conservatives.

Posted by: Berto at November 5, 2010 5:12 PM

dch,
Don't shrug off that last post. get mad. be furious. Convince yourself the VP who was doing business with the evil Saddam was Al Gore. I want to see the steam coming out of your ears.

Posted by: Berto at November 5, 2010 5:14 PM
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