Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
March 30, 2012
BASEBALL: EWSL 2012 Age and Rookie Baselines

It's that time of year again - it gets later every year - for my division previews powered by Established Win Shares Levels (originally explained here): before we get to rolling out the 2012 EWSLs, I have to update the age adjustments and rookie values I use each year. These are based on the data I have gathered over the past eight seasons, and so with each passing year, one would hope they become progressively more stable and useful in evaluating the established talent base on hand for each team entering each season. As a reminder: EWSL is not a prediction system. It's a way of assessing the resources on hand.

To my mind, the age data is actually some of the most interesting stuff from this whole project, arguably more useful than the annual team previews, because it's a mostly objective (albeit unscientific) dataset that gives us a different look at the aging curve from the perspective of the guys who look like they have roster spots in March and April of each year.

I'll skip some more of the usual preliminaries (see this post from 2010 explaining more) and get right to the charts:

Non-Pitchers 2011 and 2004-2011:

2011 NP04-11
Age#WSEWSL%#WSEWSL%
21-355481.14691271071.187
22226330.793304622601.779
23453331.603718657041.229
24222862051.393137178813681.307
25222702381.137195229219061.203
26283042461.235241271824911.091
27435694951.149277317429971.059
28414574810.950280325532271.009
29293503501.000253301031030.970
30313583610.992261293932390.907
31322403780.636241243629690.821
32232643080.857219216726950.804
33241732470.701189190122300.853
34171741830.953163167219230.869
35262313140.735148125617020.738
36642630.6659690412170.743
37111021750.583756229890.629
3815110.476503995870.680
39749740.661393584810.744
40+521400.525432825230.540
377402942820.941301732627347160.940

The younger age cohorts, as usual, were volatile due to their small sample size. Among the 20somethings, the 28 year olds got hit the hardest (led by Joe Mauer, David Wright, Shin-Soo Choo, Kendry Morales, Casey McGeehee, Stephen Drew and Franklin Gutierrez), while the 26 year olds did the best (led by Matt Kemp, Matt Joyce, Emilio Bonifacio, and Melky Cabrera); the 31 year olds (led by Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Felipe Lopez, Juan Uribe and Ryan Spilborghs) and 33 year olds (led by Chone Figgins, Marlon Byrd, Rafael Furcal, and Luke Scott) also took it on the chin, and as has been the pattern since the end of the steroid/Barry Bonds age, the over-35 crowd did more poorly than the overall results since 2004.

Pitchers 2011 and 2004-2011:

2011 P2011 Total
Age#WSEWSL%#WSEWSL%
21-11281.5001185641.328
22329181.656362942241.312
2314121901.339765834961.175
241694931.0161208507541.127
25211441361.062184130611721.114
26272381691.408231162414591.113
27392443190.765231149216920.882
28302182320.938219149715950.939
29251521570.967202129914980.867
30181371530.897188115813730.843
311374990.744173103713260.782
32211231540.80114186510990.787
3317691060.6541166288920.704
34161001370.730995627080.794
35980701.137703874770.812
361086851.016613634000.908
37411190.595462743440.797
3822220.093442843610.788
391260.364302102470.851
40+531400.769734946930.713
284191720580.931234315242168210.906

Besides the youngest arms, the 26 year olds (led by Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson, Eric O'Flaherty, Fernando Salas and David Robertson) and 35 year olds (led by Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Downs, Freddy Garcia, and Joel Peralta) had the best 2011 showings; the 24 year olds (led by Tommy Hanson, Jaime Garcia, Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz) and 27 year olds (led by Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Andrew Bailey, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, and Kevin Slowey) the worst aside from an overall decay above age 30.

We wrap up with the rookie adjustments:

Rookies

Type of Player# in 2011WS in 2011# 2004-11WS 2004-11Rate
Everyday Players9827579310.57
Bench Players (Under 30)416702693.84
Bench Players (Age 30+)00430.75
Rotation Starters28341464.29
Relief Pitchers611241074.46
TOTAL20713186.37
Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:50 PM | Baseball 2012-13 • | Baseball Studies | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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