Part 4 of my now very belated "preseason" previews is the NL Central; this is the fourth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Cincinnati Reds

Raw EWSL: 210.83
Adjusted: 228.84
Age-Adj.: 218.03
WS Age: 29.1
2012 W-L: 86-76

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	Ryan Hanigan	11	9
1B	28	Joey Votto	32	32
2B	31	Brandon Phillips	20	17
SS	26	Zack Cozart+	1	11
3B	37	Scott Rolen	11	7
RF	25	Jay Bruce	18	21
CF	27	Drew Stubbs	13	14
LF	33	Ryan Ludwick	15	13
C2	24	Devin Mesoraco+	1	4
INF	34	Wilson Valdez	8	7
OF	27	Chris Heisey#	5	7
12	34	Willie Harris	5	5
13	38	Miguel Cairo	6	4
SP1	35	Bronson Arroyo	8	7
SP2	26	Johnny Cueto	11	12
SP3	24	Mike Leake#	7	9
SP4	26	Homer Bailey	5	6
SP5	24	Mat Latos	9	10
RP1	24	Aroldis Chapman*	3	5
RP2	29	Sean Marshall	10	8
RP3	29	Bill Bray	3	3
RP4	27	Logan Ondusek#	4	4
RP5	30	Nick Masset	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Paul Janish, Billy Hamilton.

Pitchers - Alfredo Simon, Jose Arredondo, Ryan Madson (out for the season).

Analysis: The NL Central often looks weaker before the season than it does as the year progresses, but times have changed; Tony LaRussa, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are all gone, leaving the division short on anchors. That gives the Reds, who unlike their rivals managed to retain star 1B Joey Votto, a competitive advantage. Add in a rotation that could be stable if Johnny Cueto stays healthy and the usual Reds young, athletic outfield, and this team should be in any mix that emerges in this division.

Hamilton thus far is batting .381/.470/.583 and has already stolen 28 bases in A ball, although his suspect defense may slow his ascent.

Milwaukee Brewers

Raw EWSL: 227.50
Adjusted: 232.08
Age-Adj.: 212.81
WS Age: 29.9
2012 W-L: 84-78

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Jonathan Lucroy#	9	12
1B	26	Mat Gamel	1	1
2B	29	Rickie Weeks	20	19
SS	35	Alex Gonzalez	14	10
3B	34	Aramis Ramirez	19	17
RF	30	Corey Hart	18	16
CF	31	Nyjer Morgan	14	11
LF	28	Ryan Braun	33	33
C2	29	George Kottaras	4	3
INF	28	Travis Ishikawa	3	3
OF	26	Carlos Gomez	6	6
12	30	Norichika Aoki+	0	1
13	32	Cesar Izturis	4	3
SP1	26	Yovanni Gallardo	12	13
SP2	28	Zack Greinke	13	12
SP3	30	Shawn Marcum	11	9
SP4	35	Randy Wolf	11	9
SP5	30	Chris Narveson	6	5
RP1	29	John Axford#	11	12
RP2	30	Francisco Rodriguez	10	9
RP3	30	Kameron Loe	4	4
RP4	29	Manny Parra	1	1
RP5	31	Jose Veras	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position Players - Brooks Conrad.

Pitchers - Marco Estrada, who is off to an excellent start; Tim Dillard.

Analysis: The whiz heard round the world: Ryan Braun missing 50 games would have been a really horrible blow to this team after losing Fielder. With him, the Brewers' rotation gives them a fighting chance. Note that an unbalanced schedule against this large, weak division, especially the Astros, should make the rest of the NL Central teams look deceptively stronger than they are.

World Champion St. Louis Cardinals

Raw EWSL: 208.67
Adjusted: 223.91
Age-Adj.: 199.17
WS Age: 31.0
2012 W-L: 80-82

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Yadier Molina	18	17
1B	36	Lance Berkman	23	17
2B	32	Skip Schumaker	13	11
SS	34	Rafael Furcal	13	11
3B	29	David Freese	9	9
RF	35	Carlos Beltran	18	13
CF	27	Jon Jay#	9	12
LF	32	Matt Holliday	23	18
C2	25	Tony Cruz*	1	2
INF	25	Daniel Descalso*	5	12
OF	27	Allen Craig#	6	7
12	28	Tyler Greene	2	2
13	26	Matt Carpenter+	0	4
SP1	37	Chris Carpenter	14	11
SP2	30	Adam Wainwright	10	9
SP3	25	Jaime Garcia#	8	10
SP4	34	Jake Westbrook	5	4
SP5	33	Kyle Lohse	5	4
RP1	30	Jason Motte	7	6
RP2	28	Mitchell Boggs	3	3
RP3	27	Fernando Salas#	6	7
RP4	28	Kyle McClellan	6	6
RP5	26	Marc Rzepcynski	4	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Shane Robinson, Erik Komatsu.

Pitchers - Lance Lynn (I have him here because this was his preseason slot; he's been a surprising early star in the rotation), JC Romero, Victor Marte, Scott Linebrink (injured).

Analysis: The hulking sinkerballer Lynn has really been a huge help in Carpenter's early absence and with Wainwright struggling (0-3, 7.32 ERA), and the team's 14-7 record (16-5 Pythagorean record) suggests that the Cards could yet again pull an upside surprise if the antique trio of Beltran, Furcal and Berkman can stay healthy (Berkman's already on the DL). Then again, history suggests that a 1.62 ERA from Lohse, a 1.30 ERA from Westbrook and a .620 slugging average from Yadier Molina may be a tall order to sustain.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Raw EWSL: 168.00
Adjusted: 185.37
Age-Adj.: 182.65
WS Age: 28.5
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	36	Rod Barajas	10	8
1B	31	Garrett Jones	12	10
2B	26	Neil Walker#	15	20
SS	33	Clint Barmes	11	9
3B	29	Casey McGehee	16	15
RF	23	Jose Tabata#	9	13
CF	25	Andrew McCutchen	24	29
LF	26	Alex Presley*	4	9
C2	27	Michael McKendry*	1	2
INF	25	Pedro Alvarez#	6	9
OF	30	Nate McLouth	9	8
12	24	Josh Harrison*	3	7
13	26	Matt Hague+	0	4
SP1	33	Erik Bedard	4	3
SP2	27	James McDonald	5	4
SP3	29	Jeff Karstens	6	5
SP4	28	Charlie Morton	5	4
SP5	31	Kevin Corriea	4	3
RP1	30	Joel Hanrahan	10	9
RP2	29	Chris Resop	3	2
RP3	29	Evan Meek	4	4
RP4	33	Juan Cruz	2	1
RP5	35	AJ Burnett	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Yamaico Navarro

Pitchers - Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Daniel McCutchen, Doug Slaten.

Analysis: Things are looking up in Pittsburgh, for a certain value of "up" compared to 19 consecutive losing seasons. Sad as it sounds, the Pirates' 75 wins in 2003 was their only trip above 72 victories since 1999; this team has a fighting chance to top that. I would hesitate to project more.

Chicago Cubs

Raw EWSL: 156.00
Adjusted: 174.18
Age-Adj.: 175.23
SUbj. Adj.: 169.23
WS Age: 29.6
2012 W-L: 70-92

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Geovany Soto	11	11
1B	29	Bryan LaHair+	1	11
2B	26	Darwin Barney#	7	10
SS	22	Starlin Castro#	17	35
3B	27	Ian Stewart	5	5
RF	32	David DeJesus	10	8
CF	34	Marlon Byrd	14	12
LF	36	Alfonso Soriano	12	9
C2	26	Steve Clevenger+	0	4
INF	31	Jeff Baker	4	3
OF	35	Reed Johnson	6	4
12	29	Joe Mather	1	1
13	26	Blake DeWitt	8	8
SP1	28	Matt Garza	10	10
SP2	35	Ryan Dempster	9	7
SP3	27	Jeff Samardzjia	4	3
SP4	25	Chris Volstad	4	4
SP5	30	Paul Maholm	6	5
RP1	29	Carlos Marmol	11	10
RP2	35	Kerry Wood	4	4
RP3	36	Shawn Camp	5	5
RP4	26	James Russell#	1	1
RP5	29	Randy Wells	7	6

Subjective Adjustments: I cut Starlin Castro from 35 Win Shares to 29, for the usual reason that EWSL over-projects 22-year-old everyday shortstops whose value is heavily in their glove.

Also on Hand: Pitchers - Casey Coleman, Rodrigo Lopez, Rafael Davis, Lendy Castillo, Scott Maine.

Analysis: In the optimist's case, this is probably the season that provides the "how bad they were" backdrop for a later turnaround by Theo Epstein. I'd rather owe $54.5 million to Johan Santana than $54 million to Alfonso Soriano...the interesting question for an aggressive new GM is whether you could get a good package for Castro, or whether you retain him as the core building block. He's going to be one of the most valuable fantasy players in baseball over the next five years, but the debate is whether he's actually good enough defensively, and likely to survive his rough plate discipline, to match his perceived value. I don't know that I'd bet against a 22 year old shortstop with his gifts, though. He's batting .337 and leading the NL in steals at the moment.

Another guy who looks like he may finally be figuring things out is Jeff Samardzija, with a 25/8 K/BB ratio and just one HR allowed in 24 innings.

Houston Astros

Raw EWSL: 96.17
Adjusted: 113.76
Age-Adj.: 105.61
WS Age: 29.4
2012 W-L: 48-114

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Jason Castro#	1	2
1B	36	Carlos Lee	17	12
2B	22	Jose Altuve*	1	4
SS	28	Jed Lowrie	5	5
3B	27	Chris Johnson#	9	11
RF	28	Brian Bogusevic*	2	4
CF	25	Jordan Schafer	4	5
LF	24	JD Martinez*	3	8
C2	31	Chris Snyder	6	5
INF	23	Marwin Gonzalez+	0	4
OF	28	Travis Buck	2	2
12	29	Brian Bixler	0	0
13	28	Justin Maxwell	1	1
SP1	33	Wandy Rodriguez	11	8
SP2	27	Bud Norris	5	4
SP3	29	JA Happ	5	4
SP4	27	Lucas Harrell#	0	0
SP5	25	Kyle Weiland+	0	4
RP1	31	Brett Myers	9	7
RP2	28	Wilton Lopez	5	5
RP3	28	Fernando Rodriguez*	2	2
RP4	26	David Carpenter*	1	2
RP5	32	Brandon Lyon	7	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Brett Wallace, Landon Powell, Angel Sanchez.

Pitchers - Wesley Wright, Fernando Abad, Rhiner Cruz, Enerio del Rosario.

Analysis: No, that 48-114 record is not a typo; measured by ESWL, the Astros enter 2012 as the worst, or at least weakest, team since I started doing this in 2004.

The optimist's case is that the Astros are this weak, not because they have a collection of players who have proven they can't play in the majors, but mostly because they have a collection of players who haven't proven they can play in the majors. That can sometimes yield surprises; the diminutive (5'5") young (22) Jose Altuve, who hit .276 .297 .357 in Houston after hitting .408/.451/.606 in A ball and .361/.388/.569 in AA last season, is batting .359/.407/.551 so far; with his small stature, youth and compact swing, Altuve could well turn out to be a star, or he could be Jose Lopez, or he could be a little of both, like Carlos Baerga. Other youngsters could emerge as well, given enough playing time, although few of the others in the Houston lineup or rotation have an upside similar to Altuve's.

But this is guaranteed to be a terrible team, one that will likely get worse before it gets better if the team can find takers for even a portion of Brett Myers' and Carlos Lee's contracts (Myers has one more year remaining, Lee's done after this season).

Read More »

Sometimes, in retrospect, the answer is obvious. The Seattle Mariners of the late 1990s were one of the most talent-loaded teams in baseball history in terms of front-line stars: four immortals (Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, and Edgar Martinez) one significant star (Jay Buhner) and a couple of productive regulars (Jeff Fassero, Jamie Moyer, Paul Sorrento). Yet from 1996-2000, they made it out of the first round of the playoffs only once (losing the ALCS in 2000), and posted two losing records. Only when Griffey, A-Rod and Johnson were all gone (along with Fassero and Sorrento) and Buhner finished would the team build a 116-win juggernaut in 2001, in part with the pieces acquired for Johnson and Griffey.

Injuries were part of that story (Randy Johnson started just 8 games in 1996, Buhner missed half the season in 1998 and again in 1999), the pitching was chronically thin, especially the bullpen behind the likes of Heathcliff Slocumb, and of course a two-year run of epic bad trades that stripped the team of both young stars and useful role players:

December 1995:

Traded Tino Martinez, Jim Mecir and Jeff Nelson to the New York Yankees. Received Russ Davis and Sterling Hitchcock.

Traded Miguel Cairo and Bill Risley to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Edwin Hurtado and Paul Menhart.

August 1996:

Traded a player to be named later to the Minnesota Twins. Received Dave Hollins. The Seattle Mariners sent David Ortiz (September 13, 1996) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

December 1996:

Traded Sterling Hitchcock to the San Diego Padres. Received Scott Sanders.

July 1997:

Traded Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek to the Boston Red Sox. Received Heathcliff Slocumb.

Traded Jose Cruz to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Paul Spoljaric and Mike Timlin.

August 1997:

Traded players to be named later to the Minnesota Twins. Received Roberto Kelly. The Seattle Mariners sent Joe Mays (October 9, 1997) and Jeromy Palki (minors) (October 9, 1997) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

But one of the underrated flaws of that team, in retrospect, was the failure to give a longer shot to a talented young player moldering on the team's bench. Raul Ibanez in 1996 was 24 years old and coming off an age 22 season batting .312/.375/.486 and age 23 season batting .332/.395/.612 in A ball. Over the five seasons that followed - age 24-28, the years that should have been his major league prime - Ibanez would be given 518 plate appearances with the Mariners, just over 100 a year, before leaving for the Royals as a free agent. Ibanez, of course, would go on to stardom with the Royals (he drove in 103 runs in 2002) and return as a free agent after three years there. From age 30-37, Ibanez would bat .290/.351/.489, averaging 97 RBI a year. He's still playing at 40; at last check, he's slugging .500 and on pace to drive in 99 runs, although it's early yet.

To be fair, Ibanez didn't distinguish himself in his cups of coffee, batting just .241/.295/.383. He would bat .297/.364/.447 and .304/.349/.498 in 1996-97, mostly at AAA Tacoma, and struggle to a .216/.301/.363 line in a half-season's work in 1998 before spending most of the rest of the period with the big club.

Still, you have to wonder how much worse the Mariners would have done if they'd just slapped Ibanez (or Cruz, for that matter) into the big league lineup in 1996 and left him there to work through the learning curve. Here's how the team's endless revolving door of left fielders (including Ibanez as well as Cruz, Rickey Henderson, Stan Javier, Al Martin, Mark McLemore, Brian Hunter, Butch Huskey, John Mabry, Glenallen Hill, Shane Monahan, Rich Amaral, Rob Ducey, Lee Tinsley, Roberto Kelly, Mark Whiten, Darren Bragg, and Alex Diaz) hit over those five seasons:

Year	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	GDP	Avg	OBP	SLG	OPS+
1996	697	608	155	25	4	23	103	76	67	121	20	7	9	.255	.336	.423	85
1997	665	612	164	34	4	24	84	78	41	133	16	5	13	.268	.314	.454	97
1998	651	608	168	40	4	17	76	76	33	127	10	4	15	.276	.315	.439	91
1999	712	658	158	15	5	12	96	64	41	111	42	7	12	.240	.281	.333	52
2000	762	645	164	23	6	11	117	59	103	108	42	14	12	.254	.356	.360	74
Avg	697	626	162	27	5	17	95	71	57	120	26	7	12	.258	.321	.400	79

(The walks column makes it pretty apparent when Rickey hit town).

Even the 2001 team never really solved the LF problem, splitting time among Martin, McLemore and Javier (combined LF batting line: .256/.350/.364, although they probably contributed more to the team's historically effective team defense than Ibanez would have), and adding Ruben Sierra and Willie Bloomquist to the mix in 2002 (combined LF batting line: .277/.365/.424) before giving the job to Randy Winn in 2003, then shifting Winn to center to finally install Ibanez in 2004.

Ted Berg brings us the Small Sample Size Song:

Part 3 of my preseason previews is the AL West; this is the third of six division "previews," using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central, AL East.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

The Anaheim California-Based Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim

Raw EWSL: 273.50
Adjusted: 285.03
Age-Adj.: 252.76
WS Age: 30.9
2012 W-L: 97-65

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Chris Iannetta	11	10
1B	32	Albert Pujols	30	24
2B	28	Howie Kendrick	18	18
SS	28	Erick Aybar	16	16
3B	29	Alberto Callaspo	15	15
RF	36	Torii Hunter	20	14
CF	25	Peter Bourjous#	9	13
LF	33	Vernon Wells	13	11
DH	29	Kendry Morales	7	6
C2	29	Bobby Wilson#	2	2
INF	26	Mark Trumbo*	7	15
OF	38	Bobby Abreu	18	12
13	31	Macier Izturis	12	10
SP1	29	Jered Weaver	21	18
SP2	31	Danny Haren	17	13
SP3	31	CJ Wilson	17	13
SP4	29	Ervin Santana	13	11
SP5	30	Jerome Williams	2	1
RP1	24	Jordan Walden#	6	8
RP2	36	Scott Downs	9	8
RP3	37	Hisanori Takahashi	7	5
RP4	39	LaTroy Hawkins	5	4
RP5	27	Kevin Jepsen	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Hank Conger, Alexi Amarista, Ryan Langerhans, and - arriving sooner or later, and off to a hot start in AAA - outfield super-prospect Mike Trout.

Pitchers - Jason Isringhausen, who despite not being listed here is more or less in the closer mix, given the wobbly Walden.

Analysis: This team is the very picture of depth and balance, with just two really major stars (Pujols and Weaver, although in truth Weaver is only slightly better than Haren) but almost no weaknesses and a mix of young players and seasoned vets jostling for playing time (Trumbo, for example, hit 29 home runs last season and is basically reduced to playing all-purpose backup to Pujols, Callaspo, Morales, Hunter and Wells, while fending off Abreu and Trout). The only two conspicuous weaknesses are Wells, who with any non-insane contract would have been cut by now (fun fact: Vernon Wells made as much money as Mitt Romney in 2009 and 2010), and the uncertain Jerome Williams as the fifth starter.

American League Champion Texas Rangers

Raw EWSL: 235.50
Adjusted: 250.96
Age-Adj.: 230.02
WS Age: 29.9
2012 W-L: 90-72

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	30	Mike Napoli	17	16
1B	26	Mitch Moreland#	6	8
2B	30	Ian Kinsler	19	18
SS	23	Elvis Andrus	19	23
3B	33	Adrian Beltre	18	16
RF	31	Nelson Cruz	17	14
CF	31	Josh Hamilton	19	16
LF	30	David Murphy	11	10
DH	35	Michael Young	20	15
C2	33	Yorvit Torrealba	9	8
INF	29	Alberto Gonzalez	4	3
OF	28	Craig Gentry#	3	5
13	25	Brandon Snyder+	0	4
SP1	32	Colby Lewis#	10	9
SP2	25	Derek Holland	8	9
SP3	25	Yu Darvish+	0	4
SP4	24	Neftali Feliz	12	14
SP5	26	Matt Harrison	9	10
RP1	37	Joe Nathan	5	4
RP2	33	Mike Adams	10	7
RP3	28	Alexi Ogando#	9	10
RP4	37	Koji Uehara	8	6
RP5	29	Mark Lowe	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, although as I noted last year with Andrus, EWSL tends to overrate the growth potential of very young players whose value is disproportionately defensive. But by now, the more reasonable reading of the age adjustment is a built-in assumption of offensive improvement.

Also on Hand: Position players - Julio Borbon, Lonys Martin, shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar. I always read his name to myself using the Don Pardo voice: "Juuuuricksonn PrOWfarrr..." Try it once, I guarantee it will stick with you.

Pitchers - Scott Feldman, Robert Ross.

Analysis: It remains to be seen, but right now the difference in the AL West is CJ Wilson pitching for the Angels instead of the Rangers. we'll get a better fix now on exactly how well the Nolan Ryan-led organization's pitching strategies work with the move of Neftali Feliz to the rotation and Alexi Ogando back to the pen, as well as Yu Darvish's adjustment to the majors as the rare non-gimmicky Japanese power pitcher to enter a rotation (the example of the late Hideki Irabu was not encouraging, but Irabu had a variety of issues).

The Rangers lineup is older than you think it is. Guys like Hamilton and Cruz got late starts in the big leagues, so it's easy to forget they're on the wrong side of 30 now.

Seattle Mariners

Raw EWSL: 147.50
Adjusted: 186.06
Age-Adj.: 183.55
WS Age: 28.8
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	33	Miguel Olivo	10	9
1B	25	Justin Smoak#	7	11
2B	24	Dustin Ackley*	7	18
SS	30	Brendan Ryan	12	10
3B	24	Kyle Seager*	3	4
RF	38	Ichiro Suzuki	20	13
CF	29	Franklin Guitierrez	10	10
LF	34	Chone Figgins	9	7
DH	22	Jesus Montero+	1	11
C2	28	John Jaso#	8	9
INF	26	Mike Carp*	4	8
OF	25	Michael Saunders	3	4
13	27	Casper Wells#	4	6
SP1	26	Felix Hernandez	20	22
SP2	29	Jason Vargas	8	7
SP3	37	Kevin Millwood	6	5
SP4	23	Blake Beavan*	3	6
SP5	25	Hector Noesi*	1	2
RP1	29	Brandon League	9	8
RP2	28	Tom Wilhelmsen*	2	3
RP3	25	Lucas Luetge+	0	4
RP4	28	Steve Delabar+	1	4
RP5	35	George Sherrill	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Muenenori Kawasaki, who has been doing the bulk of the infield backup work, Alex Liddi, Trayvon Robinson.

Pitchers - Shawn Kelley, Erasmo Ramirez, Hisashi Iwakuma (an import who’s still looking to crack the rotation).

Analysis: The Mariners have clipped about 3 years off their WS average age since last season, albeit partly because some of the older guys like Figgins and Ichiro are coming off tough years. But the road back is long, long enough that in the absence of marketable veterans they had to part with Michael Pineda to get a young hitter in Montero (not a bad deal, but a costly one for a rebuilding team). It's hard to see the Mariners getting rebuilt before King Felix has either gotten injured or left town. This division remains stratified very sharply between the two strong and two weak teams.

Ichiro enters tonight's action with 2438 hits in the American League to go with 1287 in nine seasons in Japan, dating back to age 18, a total of 3725 hits. It's almost a certainty that he'd be on the doorstep of 4000 hits by now if he'd been in the majors that whole time: due to the shorter Japanese schedule, he made it to 200 hits only once in Japan, as a 20-year-old hitting .385 in 1994; from age 21-26, Ichiro batted .354 but averaged 172 hits in 486 at bats per season; in the majors from age 27-36, he batted .331 but averaged 224 hits in 678 at bats. Give him an extra 50 hits a year and he'd be over 4000 by now.

Oakland A's

Raw EWSL: 114.00
Adjusted: 169.35
Age-Adj.: 167.16
WS Age: 28.3
2012 W-L: 69-93

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Kurt Suzuki	10	10
1B	26	Daric Barton	10	11
2B	25	Jemile Weeks*	8	18
SS	28	Cliff Pennington	17	17
3B	26	Josh Donaldson+	0	11
RF	25	Josh Reddick*	4	8
CF	26	Yoenis Cedpedes+	0	11
LF	32	Coco Crisp	13	10
DH	31	Jonny Gomes	11	9
C2	28	Anthony Recker+	0	4
INF	26	Eric Sogard+	0	4
OF	29	Seth Smith	12	11
13	28	Kila Kaiaihue#	0	0
SP1	28	Brandon McCarthy	6	6
SP2	39	Bartolo Colon	5	4
SP3	25	Tyson Ross#	2	2
SP4	25	Tom Milone+	1	4
SP5	27	Graham Godfrey+	1	4
RP1	34	Grant Balfour	7	5
RP2	36	Brian Fuentes	7	6
RP3	28	Jerry Blevins	2	2
RP4	25	Andrew Carignan+	0	4
RP5	25	Ryan Cook+	0	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Adam Rosales, Brandon Allen, Jermaine Mitchell, Grant Green, Chris Carter.

Pitchers - Fautino de los Santos, Jordan Norberto, prospect Jarrod Parker and the injured duo of Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden, whose dual absence blows a huge hole in the Oakland rotation.

Analysis: Even for the annually reborn A's, who almost always exceed their EWSL due to overperforming young starting pitchers and a season-long influx of new discoveries, a non-age-adjusted total of 114 Established Win Shares (38 wins' worth) is a narrow base upon which to build. The Astros can't arrive in this division soon enough for Oakland.

You want good news? It's nice to have a guy who can throw like this.

Read More »

Part 2 of my preseason previews is the AL East; this is the second of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

The Hated Yankees

Raw EWSL: 281.17
Adjusted: 288.33
Age-Adj.: 246.12
WS Age: 32.1
2012 W-L: 95-67

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Russell Martin	13	12
1B	32	Mark Teixeira	23	19
2B	29	Robinson Cano	29	28
SS	38	Derek Jeter	18	12
3B	36	Alex Rodriguez	18	13
RF	31	Nick Swisher	20	16
CF	31	Curtis Granderson	22	18
LF	28	Brett Gardner	15	15
DH	40	Raul Ibanez	15	8
C2	26	Francisco Cervelli	5	5
INF	25	Eduardo Nunez#	5	7
OF	35	Andruw Jones	8	6
13	34	Eric Chavez	3	3
SP1	31	CC Sabathia	19	15
SP2	23	Michael Pineda*	5	12
SP3	37	Hiroki Kuroda	11	8
SP4	25	Ivan Nova#	6	8
SP5	26	Phil Hughes	6	6
RP1	42	Mariano Rivera	14	10
RP2	27	David Robertson	7	6
RP3	32	Rafael Soriano	9	7
RP4	29	Cory Wade	3	2
RP5	36	Freddy Garcia	9	8

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Chris Stewart, Chris Dickerson.

Pitchers - Boone Logan, Andy Pettitte, Clay Rapada, David Aardsma. Joba Chamberlain and Pedro Feliciano almost certainly won't pitch this year.

Analysis: Once again, the Hated Yankees are the class of the field - albeit not of the whole AL, compared to the Tigers - and once again, they are also (probably - I haven't finished running all the numbers) the oldest team in the league, maybe in MLB.

The Yankees' depth is not that impressive behind the front line, but of course the front line is very impressive, at least on offense and in the bullpen. It's the rotation that remains a big question mark after CC Sabathia (it's easy to forget that Kuroda is even older than Freddy Garcia). A lot will rest on Pineda.

One has to assume that by the trade deadline, the Yankees will find someone besides Ibanez and Andruw Jones to handle the DH and backup outfielder duties.

Boston Red Sox

Raw EWSL: 251.83
Adjusted: 252.87
Age-Adj.: 227.62
WS Age: 30.0
2012 W-L: 89-73

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	27	J.Saltalamacchia	5	5
1B	30	Adrian Gonzalez	31	28
2B	28	Dustin Pedroia	22	22
SS	31	Mike Aviles	6	5
3B	33	Kevin Youkilis	20	17
RF	27	Ryan Sweeney	8	9
CF	28	Jacoby Ellsbury	21	21
LF	30	Carl Crawford	18	16
DH	36	David Ortiz	17	13
C2	32	Kelly Shoppach	5	4
INF	34	Nick Punto	8	7
OF	31	Cody Ross	14	12
13	33	Darnell McDonald	5	4
SP1	28	Jon Lester	16	15
SP2	32	Josh Beckett	11	9
SP3	27	Clay Buchholz	10	9
SP4	27	Daniel Bard	8	7
SP5	24	Felix Doubront#	0	0
RP1	28	Andrew Bailey	10	9
RP2	29	Alfredo Aceves	8	7
RP3	27	Mark Melancon	6	6
RP4	34	Vicente Padilla	4	3
RP5	26	Franklin Morales	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Ryan Kalish, Ryan Lavarnaway. Pitchers - John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, neither of whom is likely to pitch. Bobby Jenks, who's on the shelf for at least about half the season. Aaron Cook, Scott Atchison, Matt Albers, Justin Thomas, Ross Ohlendorf, Michael Bowden. Cook's the one most likely to have some impact in the near future.

Analysis: Bobby Valentine (who has done nothing so far to dispell my conclusion that he's the Newt Gingrich of baseball managers) has his work cut out for him - this is still a talented team, but the injuries have piled up (including Bailey being shelved yet again) and age has taken its toll, plus one has to wonder whether Carl Crawford can take over the inspirational leadership void left by JD Drew.

(...yeah, I'm trolling with that last point)

And perhaps worst of all, not only are the Sox likely competing less for the division than for the single-elimination Russian Roulette wild card, they're doing so in a viciously competitive division, as you can see from how the Rays and Jays rosters look. Maybe Crawford, Youkilis and Buchholz bounce back, but then Ortiz is 36 and there's nowhere to go but down for Ellsbury, Gonzalez, and Pedroia after 2011. The Sawx will be a good team, but they face a high likelihood of being an odd man out.

Tampa Bay Rays

Raw EWSL: 213.83
Adjusted: 230.16
Age-Adj.: 223.76
WS Age: 29.1
2012 W-L: 88-74

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	37	Jose Molina	6	3
1B	34	Carlos Pena	17	15
2B	32	Jeff Keppinger	12	10
SS	27	Sean Rodriguez	8	8
3B	26	Evan Longoria	26	28
RF	27	Matt Joyce	13	14
CF	27	BJ Upton	18	19
LF	25	Desmond Jennings*	6	13
DH	34	Luke Scott	9	7
C2	27	Jose Lobaton+	1	4
INF	26	Reid Brignac	6	6
OF	31	Ben Zobrist	26	21
13	28	Elliott Johnson*	1	2
SP1	26	David Price	13	15
SP2	30	James Shields	13	11
SP3	25	Jeremy Hellickson#	9	11
SP4	23	Matt Moore+	1	4
SP5	29	Jeff Niemann	8	7
RP1	36	Kyle Farnsworth	8	7
RP2	36	Joel Peralta	6	5
RP3	35	Fernando Rodney	4	3
RP4	25	Jacob McGee*	1	2
RP5	26	Wade Davis	6	7

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Stephen Vogt, Sam Fuld (who is injured).

Pitchers - JP Howell, Brandon Gomes, Josh Lueke, Burke Badenhop.

Analysis: The Rays have their usual assortment of young starting pitchers, prime-age position players, and aging relievers, with weak spots at catcher and much of the non-Longoria infield (depending where Zobrist is on a particular day, which thus far is more often in the outfield). It's always hard to guess how Hellickson, Moore and Davis (to the extent he gets another shot in the rotation) will progress down the path to David Pricedom.

Despite an early injury, I have a suspicion that his age 27 contract year will be good to BJ Upton, who has definitely followed the Adrian Beltre career path; Upton's five year average of .257/.346/.425 with 32 doubles, 17 HR, 37 SB & 71 BB is solid, but somehow his individual seasons don't quite match up to that package.

Toronto Blue Jays

Raw EWSL: 204.17
Adjusted: 227.16
Age-Adj.: 221.26
WS Age: 29.2
2012 W-L: 87-75

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	JP Arencibia*	7	15
1B	28	Adam Lind	12	12
2B	30	Kelly Johnson	16	15
SS	29	Yunel Escobar	19	18
3B	22	Brett Lawrie*	5	18
RF	31	Jose Bautista	30	25
CF	25	Colby Rasmus	13	16
LF	25	Eric Thames*	4	8
DH	29	Edwin Encarnacion	9	9
C2	29	Jeff Mathis	4	4
INF	45	Omar Vizquel	4	2
OF	31	Rajai Davis	10	8
13	30	Ben Francisco	6	6
SP1	27	Ricky Romero	16	14
SP2	27	Brandon Morrow	7	6
SP3	25	Brett Cecil	6	6
SP4	22	Henderson Alvarez*	2	5
SP5	25	Joel Carreno+	1	4
RP1	28	Sergio Santos#	8	9
RP2	37	Francisco Cordero	12	10
RP3	41	Darren Oliver	7	5
RP4	27	Luis Perez*	1	2
RP5	34	Jason Frasor	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None, but Brett Lawrie's EWSL may be somewhat enthusiastic here, as is sometimes the case for 22 year olds.

Also on Hand: Position players - Travis Snider.

Pitchers - Dustin McGowan (hurt again) and Jesse Litsch.

Analysis: What a difference a year makes for a team I has ranked last entering last season; EWSL has them effectively even with Boston and Tampa, even adjusting for Canadian exchange rates.

Colby Rasmus is to the Jays what Upton and Crawford are to Tampa and Boston, the lineup's pivotal enigma. The pitching staff is still a crapshoot beyond Romero, but there are a fair number of live arms here.

Baltimore Orioles

Raw EWSL: 176.00
Adjusted: 181.12
Age-Adj.: 176.99
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Matt Wieters	17	19
1B	26	Chris Davis	4	4
2B	34	Brian Roberts	7	6
SS	29	JJ Hardy	15	15
3B	28	Mark Reynolds	17	17
RF	28	Nick Markakis	20	20
CF	26	Adam Jones	15	17
LF	28	Nolan Reimold	7	7
DH	30	Wilson Betemit	10	9
C2	31	Ronny Paulino	6	5
INF	28	Robert Andino	6	6
OF	34	Endy Chavez	4	3
13	33	Nick Johnson	4	3
SP1	29	Jason Hammell	7	6
SP2	26	Jake Arrieta#	4	6
SP3	25	Tommy Hunter	6	7
SP4	26	Wei-Yin Chen+	0	4
SP5	25	Brian Matusz	4	4
RP1	29	Jim Johnson	8	7
RP2	32	Matt Lindstrom	4	3
RP3	34	Kevin Gregg	6	5
RP4	29	Darren O'Day	5	4
RP5	34	Luis Ayala	3	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Ryan Flaherty.

Pitchers - Pedro Strop, Troy Patton, Zach Britton, Tsuyoshi Wada, Brad Bergesen.

Analysis: The Orioles aren't terrible, but this division could easily leave a lot of their players look like Robert Andino.

Wieters, Davis and Jones have basically reached the put up or shut up stage for their hyped potential. Davis now has a career line of .322/.380/.645 in AA, .337/.397/.609 in AAA, but .252/.301/.448 in MLB. In MLB, he's averaged a .335 BABIP, 24 HR, 39 BB, and 189 K per 600 AB. Between AA and AAA: .395 BABIP, 41 HR, 58 BB, 156 K per 600 AB. In other words, it's not just the strikeouts, Davis has struggled across the board to translate his skills to the MLB level. He could hit 45 homers, he could hit .210; he could do both. If he and Jones both improve their strike zone judgment just a bit, this lineup looks a lot better. Then you have Hardy, who is liable to do anything in a given season (I sort of half expect him to hit 30 homers because having two good years in a row is the one thing he's never done), and Markakis, who is battling to avoid the Ben Grieve career path he's been on for the past few seasons, as well as Reynolds, who will be a terror if he plays every day and strikes out less than 200 times, but is more apt to terrorize his own pitching staff. If ever there was an offense designed for the outside possibility of making its batting coach look like a genius...Jim Presley has his work cut out for him.

We pass in silence and avert our eyes from Baltimore's pitching beyond noting that Jake Arrieta started Opening Day.

Read More »

Long-time readers know that the timing of my annual division previews has gotten more erratic over the years, but since this is a multi-year project, I can't drop the ball even if I'm late, late enough that the season's already underway before the first one. So here we go.

Part 1 of my preseason previews is the AL Central; this is the first of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Detroit Tigers

Raw EWSL: 250.83
Adjusted: 262.49
Age-Adj.: 254.41
WS Age: 28.5
2012 W-L: 98-64

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Alex Avila	16	20
1B	28	Prince Fielder	30	30
2B	31	Ryan Raburn	10	8
SS	30	Jhonny Peralta	18	16
3B	29	Miguel Cabrera	33	32
RF	27	Brennan Boesch#	10	12
CF	25	Austin Jackson#	13	19
LF	26	Delmon Young	14	15
DH	26	Andy Dirks*	3	7
C2	32	Gerald Laird	6	5
INF	32	Ramon Santiago	7	5
OF	32	Don Kelly#	4	4
13	26	Danny Worth#	1	1
SP1	29	Justin Verlander	23	20
SP2	27	Max Scherzer	11	10
SP3	28	Doug Fister	12	11
SP4	23	Rick Porcello	8	8
SP5	23	Drew Smyly+	0	4
RP1	32	Jose Valverde	13	10
RP2	34	Joaquin Benoit	7	6
RP3	38	Octavio Dotel	6	4
RP4	29	Phil Coke	5	4
RP5	26	Daniel Schlereth	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Clete Thomas, the Ghost of Brandon Inge, the injured and almost certainly out for the season Victor Martinez.

Pitchers - Charlie Furbush, Al Albuquerque (who's injured), Duane Below, Andrew Oliver, Collin Balester, Brayan Villarreal.

Analysis: As befits a team that went to the ALCS last year and then added Prince Fielder, EWSL rates the Tigers as fairly overwhelming favorites to win the AL Central going away. Verlander's continuing health and durability is the key assumption there. So far, the Tigers have played as a caricature of themselves, scoring nearly 9 runs per game but with an appalling .654 Defensive Efficiency Rating - that infield's not going to be pretty. Also, the Tigers' depth in their everyday lineup is not great, if they have injuries. But these are mostly nits.

As you may have heard, Octavio Dotel has set the all-time record for most teams played for, 13 in 14 seasons. Smyly had a good pro debut last season - 2.07 ERA, 9.3 K, 2.6 BB, 0.1 HR/9 (just 2 homers in 126 IP) - and got stronger in the last third of the season when he moved up to AA, but will be making a big leap to the big leagues.

Cleveland Indians

Raw EWSL: 181.17
Adjusted: 193.77
Age-Adj.: 188.33
WS Age: 28.4
2012 W-L: 76-86

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Carlos Santana#	13	17
1B	29	Casey Kotchman	12	12
2B	25	Jason Kipnis*	3	7
SS	26	Asdrubal Cabrera	19	20
3B	32	Jack Hannahan	8	6
RF	29	Shin-Soo Choo	17	16
CF	25	Michael Brantley	8	9
LF	26	Aaron Cunningham#	2	2
DH	35	Travis Hafner	13	9
C2	26	Lou Marson#	4	5
INF	27	Jason Donald#	4	5
OF	32	Shelley Duncan	7	5
13	29	Grady Sizemore	5	5
SP1	27	Justin Masterson	10	9
SP2	28	Ubaldo Jimenez	14	13
SP3	27	Josh Tomlin#	6	6
SP4	39	Derek Lowe	6	5
SP5	28	Kevin Slowey	4	3
RP1	26	Chris Perez	10	11
RP2	28	Tony Sipp	5	5
RP3	28	Joe Smith	5	5
RP4	27	Vinnie Pestano*	4	7
RP5	30	Rafael Perez	5	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Lonnie Chisenhall, who may end up the third baseman at some point; Ryan Spilborghs.

Pitchers - Chris Ray.

Analysis: The Indians have the air of optimism about them, but Cabrera will have a hard time topping last season, as will Masterson (I'd bet on Masterson, of the two). There's room for growth from Santana and a rebound by Choo - and you never know with Sizemore, although he's on the 60-day DL at this writing - but it's hard to look up and down this roster and see where they make up the gap to catch the Tigers.

A full season of Ubaldo Jimenez should help stabilize the rotation, but as of now he looks like another data point for the idea that guys who pitch well in Coors end up old before their time from the strain.

Kansas City Royals

Raw EWSL: 135.33
Adjusted: 154.33
Age-Adj.: 166.17
WS Age: 27.3
2012 W-L: 69-93

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	30	Brayan Pena	4	4
1B	22	Eric Hosmer*	7	23
2B	30	Yuniesky Betancourt	11	10
SS	25	Alcides Escobar	9	10
3B	23	Mike Moustakas*	2	5
RF	28	Jeff Francouer	12	12
CF	26	Lorenzo Cain#	2	3
LF	28	Alex Gordon	13	13
DH	26	Billy Butler	18	20
C2	32	Humberto Quintero	3	3
INF	28	Chris Getz	7	7
OF	30	Mitch Maier	7	6
13	30	Jason Bourgeois	3	3
SP1	35	Bruce Chen	8	6
SP2	28	Luke Hochevar	5	5
SP3	29	Jonathan Sanchez	7	6
SP4	28	Felipe Paulino	3	3
SP5	23	Danny Duffy*	1	1
RP1	28	Jonathan Broxton	5	4
RP2	26	Greg Holland*	5	10
RP3	25	Aaron Crow*	3	6
RP4	22	Tim Collins*	2	5
RP5	28	Luis Mendoza	1	1

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Johnny Giovatella, like Getz, will sooner or later challenge again for the second base job.

Pitchers - Joakim Soria, who won't pitch; Blake Wood.

Analysis: The Royals are back in that familiar position of having optimism derived from young talent in the lineup, but - as of yet - nothing comparable in the rotation. Duffy has the minor league record of a high-end prospect, but he got cuffed around last season and has much to prove to show he's turned that corner. And of course, this team is still held together by too many players of the Francouer, Chen, Betancourt ilk. The Royals could well post a winning record if Moustakas and Duffy blossom and more help arrives from the minors, but it's hard to see them actually contending yet.

Minnesota Twins

Raw EWSL: 169.33
Adjusted: 189.37
Age-Adj.: 175.41
WS Age: 29.7
2012 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Joe Mauer	19	19
1B	24	Chris Parmelee+	3	11
2B	27	Alexi Casilla	6	7
SS	37	Jamey Carroll	13	8
3B	27	Danny Valencia	9	11
RF	24	Ben Revere*	5	12
CF	28	Denard Span	13	13
LF	33	Josh Willingham	16	13
DH	31	Justin Morneau	11	9
C2	31	Ryan Doumit	8	7
INF	26	Trevor Plouffe*	3	7
OF	27	Luke Hughes*	3	6
13	31	Sean Burroughs	1	0
SP1	36	Carl Pavano	11	10
SP2	30	Scott Baker	10	9
SP3	28	Francisco Liriano	7	7
SP4	30	Nick Blackburn	6	5
SP5	33	Jason Marquis	6	4
RP1	28	Matt Capps	8	8
RP2	29	Glen Perkins	4	4
RP3	29	Brian Duensing	7	6
RP4	24	Alex Burnett#	1	1
RP5	31	Jared Burton	1	1

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position Players - Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Pitchers - Jeff Gray.

Analysis: Few teams have fallen as far as fast as these Twins, with the unraveling of Mauer, Morneau and Liriano dashing any hopes the team could have had of fixing the problems further down the roster (a lesser storyline being the disappointment of Scott Baker and the now-departed Kevin Slowey). 72-90, reflecting some of the residual strength of the fallen stars, may actually be optimistic.

Chicago White Sox

Raw EWSL: 178.50
Adjusted: 195.73
Age-Adj.: 174.21
WS Age: 30.2
2012 W-L: 71-91

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	35	AJ Pierzynski	11	8
1B	36	Paul Konerko	25	18
2B	25	Gordon Beckham	13	15
SS	30	Alexi Ramirez	19	17
3B	25	Brent Morel#	2	3
RF	31	Alex Rios	10	8
CF	28	Alejandro de Aza	5	5
LF	23	Dayan Viciedo#	2	3
DH	32	Adam Dunn	11	8
C2	26	Tyler Flowers*	2	3
INF	28	Brent Lillibridge	4	4
OF	35	Kosuke Fukudome	14	10
13	23	Eduardo Escobar+	0	4
SP1	27	John Danks	12	11
SP2	29	Gavin Floyd	12	10
SP3	31	Jake Peavy	6	4
SP4	29	Phil Humber#	6	6
SP5	23	Chris Sale#	7	10
RP1	24	Hector Santiago+	1	4
RP2	35	Matt Thornton	9	7
RP3	23	Addison Reed+	0	4
RP4	30	Jesse Crain	8	6
RP5	34	Will Ohman	3	2

Subjective Adjustments: None. Santiago has been announced as the closer, but I still expect Reed to take the job by season's end.

Also on Hand: Position players - Conor Jackson, Osvaldo Martinez.

Pitchers - Zack Stewart.

Analysis: Can these guys really be worse than the hapless Twins? I admit some skepticism, but despite a lot of good arms, this team's best everyday players have a lot of years on them. It's more likely that the Twins underperform their EWSL than the White Sox significantly overperform, although of course another about-face by Dunn and Rios would help.

Read More »

I've previously looked in detail at the breakdown of GOP primary votes here, here and here; for purposes of this series, I've broken out the votes in three groups - the five conservative candidates (Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann and Cain), the two moderate candidates (Romney and Hunstman) and the libertarian (Paul) - for reasons explained in the first post. In my second post, I detailed the signs to look for to see whether and when Romney would start putting the race away with the voters rather than simply plodding through the accumulation of delegates.

After the March 24 vote in Louisiana and Tuesday's votes in Wisconsin, Maryland and DC, we can see the signs of that momentum shift, but only slightly, with stubborn resistance to Romney still continuing. Not-unrelatedly, we can see the collapse of Newt Gingrich's campaign to levels even lower than he was getting in February, the last time he went a month without being on the ballot in any Southern state (recall that Newt was not on the Missouri ballot). Let's start with the month-by-month running tally:

Candidate	JANUARY	%	FEBRUARY	%	MARCH	%	APRIL	%
Romney	1,071,678	40.5%	741,495	40.6%	2,181,105	37.6%	466,928	45.4%
Santorum	378,995	14.3%	692,296	37.9%	1,748,498	30.1%	358,668	34.9%
Gingrich	817,770	30.9%	160,360	8.8%	1,219,154	21.0%	72,509	7.0%
Paul	278,729	10.5%	215,023	11.8%	578,435	10.0%	111,129	10.8%
Huntsman	50,049	1.9%	2,817	0.2%	15,387	0.3%	6,851	0.7%
Perry	23,592	0.9%	6,293	0.3%	23,581	0.4%	1,041	0.1%
Bachmann	10,856	0.4%	3,480	0.2%	8,688	0.1%	6,054	0.6%
Cain	10,046	0.4%	3,555	0.2%	39	0.0%	-	0.0%
Rest	4,742	0.2%	1,528	0.1%	29,142	0.5%	5,416	0.5%
Conservatives	1,241,259	46.9%	865,984	47.4%	2,999,960	51.7%	438,272	42.6%
Moderates	1,121,727	42.4%	744,312	40.7%	2,196,492	37.8%	473,779	46.1%
Libertarians	278,729	10.5%	215,023	11.8%	578,435	10.0%	111,129	10.8%
TOTAL	2,646,457		1,826,847		5,804,029		1,028,596

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