Baseball Crank
Covering the Front and Back Pages of the Newspaper
May 1, 2012
BASEBALL: 2012 NL East EWSL Report

Part 5 of my now very belated "preseason" previews is the NL East; this is the fifth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West, NL Central.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Atlanta Braves

Raw EWSL: 215.17
Adjusted: 248.24
Age-Adj.: 260.94
Subj. Adj.: 257.94
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 99-63

POSAgePLAYERRaw EWSLAge Adj
C28Brian McCann2121
1B22Freddie Freeman*1034
2B32Dan Uggla2217
SS22Tyler Pastornicky+011
3B40Chipper Jones179
RF22Jason Heyward#1328
CF29Michael Bourn2020
LF28Martin Prado1515
C235Dave Ross75
INF34Jack Wilson65
OF34Matt Diaz65
1234Eric Hinske65
1328Jose Constanza*23
SP125Tommy Hanson1011
SP225Brandon Beachy*48
SP326Jair Jurrjens1011
SP436Tim Hudson1413
SP522Randall Delgado*13
RP124Craig Kimbrel#1013
RP227Johnny Venters#1111
RP327Eric O'Flaherty87
RP426Kris Medlen33
RP524Mike Minor#22

Subjective Adjustments: I docked Freddie Freeman 3 Win Shares, down from 34 to 31, and that still seems conservative. Is Freddie Freeman really a reasonable bet to be better than Joey Votto in 2012? That's where EWSL has him, on grounds of being 22 and coming off a 19 Win Shares season. You have to admit, Freeman's batting line looks a lot more impressive when you account for his age...but still. Really?

On the other hand, I refuse to adjust Jason Heyward, the team's other 22-year-old regular, downwards from 28 Win Shares. I can totally see that happening.

Also on Hand: Position players - Juan Francisco, who subbed as the everyday 3B until Chipper was ready to go, and likely will again the next time Chipper gets chipped.

Pitchers - Chad Durbin, Livan Hernandez, and two injured pitchers, Robert Fish and Arodys Vizcaino.

Analysis: EWSL is out on a limb here because 22 year old hitters are its weakness, but the Braves are potentially loaded. They fit the classic profile of a team ready to rip the ears off the division, like the 1986 Mets or the 1984 Tigers: a young team with a few key veretans that had a couple of tough endings and is starting to get written off, but could suddenly gel and hit the stratosphere. The tough part is how cutthroat this division is, but maybe no moreso than the AL East in 1984.

Note that this is the second year in a row that EWSL had the Braves winning the division.

Philadelphia Phillies

Raw EWSL: 285.67
Adjusted: 293.00
Age-Adj.: 247.33
WS Age: 32.0
2012 W-L: 96-66

POSAgePLAYERRaw EWSLAge Adj
C33Carlos Ruiz1815
1B32Ryan Howard2217
2B33Chase Utley2319
SS33Jimmy Rollins2017
3B36Placido Polanco1612
RF29Hunter Pence2221
CF31Shane Victorino2319
LF34Juan Pierre1412
C235Brian Schneider32
INF34Ty Wigginton55
OF31Laynce Nix65
1228John Mayberry66
1341Jim Thome137
SP135Roy Halladay2319
SP233Cliff Lee1913
SP328Cole Hamels1615
SP424Vance Worley*612
SP531Joe Blanton43
RP131Jonathan Papelbon129
RP233Chad Qualls43
RP327Kyle Kendrick65
RP426Antonio Bastardo56
RP525Michael Stutes*36

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Pete Orr, Freddy Galvis.

Pitchers - Joe Savery, Jose Contreras, Brian Sanches, David Herndon, Michael Schwimer.

Analysis: After threatening for years, the piper has come to Philadelphia, and he will be paid. 32 year old Ryan Howard, 33 year old Chase Utley, and 33 year old Cliff Lee are all on the DL. Almost as old as the Yankees, this team is: outside of Worley and the bullpen, the "kids" are 28 year old Cole Hamels and 29 year old Hunter Pence. For all of that, this team won't go down easy: before the age adjustments, this is a 111-win team, so even when you discount them for age, they are still knocking on the door of triple digits. And if you draw a healthy Halladay, Lee and Hamels in a short series, you're still in deep yogurt; there has maybe never been a more skillful pitching staff assembled.

Miami Marlins

Raw EWSL: 215.50
Adjusted: 226.27
Age-Adj.: 227.44
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 89-73

POSAgePLAYERRaw EWSLAge Adj
C31John Buck1411
1B28Gaby Sanchez#1417
2B30Omar Infante1715
SS29Jose Reyes2019
3B28Hanley Ramirez1818
RF22Giancarlo Stanton#1430
CF27Emilio Bonifacio1314
LF24Logan Morrison#913
C228Brett Hayes#23
INF33Greg Dobbs44
OF27Chris Coghlan89
1229Donnie Murphy21
1332Austin Kearns43
SP128Josh Johnson1211
SP233Mark Buehrle1410
SP328Anibal Sanchez109
SP429Ricky Nolasco65
SP531Carlos Zambrano87
RP134Heath Bell1310
RP228Edward Mujica66
RP327Mike Dunn#33
RP426Ryan Webb44
RP526Steve Cishek*37

Subjective Adjustments: None; I haven't downgraded Stanton for the same reason as Heyward. This season has a bumper crop of 22-year-olds who will put EWSL's age adjustment to the test: Heyward, Stanton, Freeman, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Starlin Castro, Ruben Tejada, and Jose Altuve. Note that, as usual, that group is split between guys whose playing time is stepping up to full time (Lawrie, Hosmer, Altuve, Tejada) and those who were already everyday for a full season (Heyward, Castro, Stanton, Freeman). It's the inevitable growth of the former group that tends to artificially over-project the latter. The effect is most pronounced on 22 year olds because guys who are playing everyday at 21 or 22 tend to be really good.

Also on Hand: Position players - Scott Cousins.

Pitchers - Randy Choate, Chad Gaudin, the potentially ineligible Juan Oviedo (f/k/a Leo Nunez), the injured Jose Ceda.

Analysis: If you can buy this as a third-place team, you see how deep this division is now.

Jose Reyes gets more attention, as does the Miami Medusa in center field that goes off when the Marlins hit a home run:

But the most interesting issue to watch is whether Hanley Ramirez, now batting .236/.330/.381 since the start of 2011, can bounce back. Also, whether Giancarlo (don't call me Mike) Stanton's prodigious power will be held back by the new stadium's cavernous dimensions. So far, so good from the team's perspective - the Marlins have hit 9 homers at home, 9 on the road, compared to allowing 4 at home and 12 on the road, and Stanton's lone longball this season came at home - but he's started slowly overall.

Washington Nationals

Raw EWSL: 185.17
Adjusted: 195.33
Age-Adj.: 195.34
WS Age: 28.2
2012 W-L: 78-84

POSAgePLAYERRaw EWSLAge Adj
C24Wilson Ramos#812
1B32Adam LaRoche97
2B25Danny Espinosa#1218
SS26Ian Desmond#1215
3B27Ryan Zimmerman1920
RF33Jayson Werth2017
CF32Rick Ankiel65
LF33Xavier Nady43
C227Jesus Flores11
INF30Michael Morse1614
OF28Roger Bernadina#78
1237Mark DeRosa43
1332Chad Tracy11
SP123Stephen Strasburg#34
SP226Jordan Zimmermann67
SP328Edwin Jackson1211
SP426Gio Gonzalez1314
SP526Ross Detwiler23
RP135Brad Lidge43
RP225Henry Rodriguez#23
RP327Tyler Clippard109
RP424Drew Storen#912
RP529Sean Burnett65

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Wunderkind Bryce Harper, Mark Teahen, Brett Carroll, Steve Lombardozzi (the younger one), Tyler Moore.

Pitchers - Tom Gorzelanny, Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus, Chien-Ming Wang.

Analysis: The "K Street" Nationals' hot start has brought back memories of Davey Johnson teams of yore; four starters have ERAs in the ones, three relievers have ERAs ranging from 0.00 to 2.00, and the team is averaging 8.7 K/9. And they're not really kids, either - Strasburg is already a Tommy John surgery veteran, and he and Henry Rodriguez are the only guys on the staff under 26. For a team that in its seven prior years in DC finished 16th in the NL in pitcher strikeouts twice, 15th three times, 13th once and as high as 10th only in its inaugural season, this is revolutionary. For the first time, it will actually be the offense that has to carry the ball.

Bryce Harper may well be a superstar in the making, but he's closer in age to Justin Bieber than he is to Strasburg. Harper was 8 years old on 9/11. When he was born, Jamie Moyer was mulling a coaching job offer from the Cubs, his MLB pitching career widely considered over. In other words: don't expect too much too soon. Harper reached the majors without slugging over .400 above A ball. There are 72 players (including a few pitchers and managers) in the Hall of Fame who had 200 or more plate appearances their first season in the majors; only 18 of those 72 slugged above .450, and only 11 of those were 22 or younger, the youngest being age 20; the highest among the teenagers was Mickey Mantle at .443 (Mel Ott is the only Hall of Famer to slug .450 as a teenager - .524 as a 19 year old in 1928 - and Ott wasn't a rookie, having 241 plate appearances over the prior two seasons). Barry Bonds hit .223/.330/.416 as a rookie.

New York Mets

Raw EWSL: 162.50
Adjusted: 185.94
Age-Adj.: 183.04
WS Age: 29.3
2012 W-L: 74-88

POSAgePLAYERRaw EWSLAge Adj
C25Josh Thole#810
1B25Ike Davis#812
2B27Daniel Murphy99
SS22Ruben Tejada#613
3B29David Wright1818
RF26Lucas Duda*612
CF34Andres Torres1412
LF33Jason Bay1412
C229Mike Nickeas*11
INF27Justin Turner*816
OF32Scott Hairston64
1229Ronny Cedeno99
1324Kirk Nieuwenhuis+04
SP133Johan Santana75
SP237RA Dickey119
SP325Jonathan Niese#45
SP426Dillon Gee*46
SP528Mike Pelfrey66
RP132Frank Francisco75
RP227Bobby Parnell33
RP333Jon Rauch64
RP430Ramon Ramirez76
RP538Tim Byrdak32

Subjective Adjustments: None; I'm trying to keep these limited to preseason rankings, so I did not dock Mike Pelfrey.

Also on Hand: Position players - Mike Baxter (I could have rated him in the same place as Niewenhuis, but Niewenhuis is likely the guy I'll be rating down the road), Zach Lutz, Jordany Valdespin, Brad Emaus, Freddie Lewis.

Pitchers - Miguel Batista, Manny Acosta, Pedro Beato, DJ Carrasco, Chris Schwinden, Jeremy Hefner.

Analysis: The Mets, realistically, are not aiming for a first place finish this season, but for .500 and respectability. And maybe not last place, which will require one of the other competitors here to have a very disappointing year. The main thing that needs to happen, for that to occur, is to keep the front four of the rotation healthy (Mike Pelfrey is headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery today), as well as Wright and Davis; some of the youngsters also need to step up, as Tejada, Thole and Nieuwenhuis have so far (I admit, I never expected Tejada to be a major league hitter). Santana, of course, has been miraculous, averaging over 10 K/9 for the first time since his first Cy Young season in 2004 and not having yet allowed a home run. The lesson is never bet against great pitchers - but also, be cautious, as I can recall Dwight Gooden having some outstanding stretches in the years after shoulder surgery, but never again sustaining it over a full season.

The Method

For those of you who are unfamiliar, EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2011 revisions to the age and rookie adjustments are discussed here.

Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give a probabalistic assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system - EWSL tells you what you should reasonably expect to happen this year if there are no surprises, rather than shedding light on how to spot the surprises before they happen; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here, here, here, here, here, here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I'm only rating 23 players per team. (I'm not convinced going to 24 or 25 would make the system more useful, since it would tend to overrate teams that stuff their back bench slots with aging ex-regulars). That said, I also don't adjust for available playing time, since as a general rule, teams that have excess depth of players with established track records are better off than those that are stretching to cover their whole roster with guys who have proven they can do the job. The line for each team's estimated 2012 W-L record adds EWSL plus 39.7 Win Shares, which is the average number of Win Shares by the rest of the team's roster (i.e., the players other than the 23 listed before the season) over the teams I have tracked the past six seasons (2011 team results are rounded up here).

As always, the depth charts here are drawn from multiple sources, including early-season box scores and the depth charts at Baseball Prospectus.com, all modified by press reports and my own assessments. I take responsibility for any errors; a lot can still change.

Prior NL East previews here: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:15 PM | Baseball 2012-13 • | Baseball Studies | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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