Baseball Crank
"It gets late early around here." - Yogi Berra
September 21, 2014
POLITICS: Bobby Jindal's Energy Plan

My latest at RedState.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:07 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Better Call Paul

My latest at RedState.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:22 PM | Politics 2014
September 20, 2014
POLITICS: Mary, Mary

My latest at RedState, on Mary Burke's "plagiarism" scandal and why it matters.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:40 AM | Politics 2014
September 19, 2014
BLOG: RedState and Federalist Roundup

I owe longtime readers here some explanation and apology - my work at both RedState and The Federalist is now exclusive, at least when first published, to those sites, and while I post links on Twitter and Facebook, I tend to forget sometimes to post links back here at the old stomping grounds. (I may well close the comments section here too soon, since the lack of activity means a high spam-to-real-comments ratio, and since most regular commenters by now know how to find me elsewhere).

Here's my most recent posts over the past month, all of them on matters of politics and/or history:

RedState:

Ferguson, Missouri and the Fog of Partisanship and Ideology

93% of Democratic Senate or Governor Candidates Are White

Where I Was On September 11 (a repost of the annual remembrance)

Is The Democratic Party Proud of its History of Slavery & Segregation?

Mid-September Polls Are Not The Last Word On Senate Races

The Federalist:

History Is Not On The Democrats' Side In 2016

Presidential Battleground States: A History

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:28 PM | Blog 2006-16 • | History • | Politics 2014 • | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis | Comments (1)
September 15, 2014
POLITICS: Mid-September Polls Are Not The Last Word On Senate Races

A Snapshot, Not A Verdict: Will A Wave Still Swamp More Democrats?

The perennial question about election polls is back again, if ever it left: how far can we trust them? Should we disregard all other evidence but what the current polling of individual Senate races tells us - which is, at this writing, that if the election was held today, Republicans would gain 6 seats in the Senate to hold a narrow 51-48 majority? As usual, a little historical perspective is in order. It is mid-September, with just over seven weeks to Election Day, and as discussed below, all the fundamental signs show that this is at least a mild Republican "wave" year. A review of the mid-September polls over the last six Senate election cycles, all of which ended in at least a mild "wave" for one party, shows that it is common for the "wave party" to win a few races in which it trailed in mid-September - sometimes more than a few races, and sometimes races in which there appeared to be substantial leads, and most frequently against the other party's incumbents. Whereas it is very uncommon for the wave party to lose a polling lead, even a slim one, after mid-September - it has happened only three times, one of those was a tied race rather than a lead, and another involved the non-wave party replacing its candidate on the ballot with a better candidate. If these historical patterns hold in 2014, we would therefore expect Republicans to win all the races in which they currently lead plus two to four races in which they are currently behind, netting a gain of 8 to 10 Senate seats.

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Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:00 PM | Politics 2014 • | Poll Analysis