Baseball Crank
"It gets late early around here." - Yogi Berra
November 26, 2015
POLITICS: Happy Thanksgiving, 2015!

Diebold Stole My Doobies! Stoners Blame "Stolen" Election

The Myth of "4 Million Conservative Voters Stayed Home in 2012"

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:25 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
POLITICS: The Myth of "4 Million Conservative Voters Stayed Home in 2012"

RS: The Myth of "4 Million Conservative Voters Stayed Home in 2012"

gandalf cavalry

I have frequently criticized liberal and Democratic commentators for relying on the Static Electorate Fallacy, the idea that the 2016 electorate and results will not stray far from the demographic, geographic and ideological contours of 2012, despite longstanding American electoral history showing that elections following the re-election of an incumbent have always featured shifts in the map to the detriment of the party in power. Candidates make their own turnout, and removing a successfully re-elected incumbent always puts more voters and potential voters up for grabs.

But conservative and Republican commentators need to avoid believing our own comforting myths, and one of those has managed remarkable durability even though it should have gone away within a month of the 2012 elections: that something like 4 million usually reliable conservative voters - voters who showed up at the polls even in the down year of 2008 to support John McCain - stayed home in 2012 because Mitt Romney was too moderate. This theory keeps getting offered as proof that all the GOP needs to do is nominate a real conservative and this cavalry, 4 million strong, will come charging over the hilltop and save the day. In fact, poor a candidate as he was, Romney actually got more votes than McCain did; the belief that he got less is based entirely on incomplete numbers reported in the first 24-48 hours after Election Day, before all the votes had finally been counted.

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Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:00 PM | Politics 2012 • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
November 23, 2015
POLITICS: Nutty Uncle Bernie

Bernie Sanders Is Still Polling Better With Democrats Than Donald Trump Is With Republicans

Posted by Baseball Crank at 5:19 PM | Politics 2016
November 20, 2015
POLITICS: Democrats Start To Show Early Signs of Panic About 2016

RS: Democrats Start To Show Early Signs of Panic About 2016

Fear and Loathing in Hillaryland

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks at a the National Council of La Raza Annual Conference Monday, July 13, 2015, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

To all outward appearances, Democrats and liberal-progressive pundits are confident to the point of arrogant, gloating certainty about the 2016 presidential election. In part this is “victory disease” – they were sure they would win in 2008 and 2012, they were right, so they are convinced it shall always be so. In part it’s a defense mechanism – they got shellacked in 2010 and 2014, and the best way to convince yourself that these losses were illegitimate as a repudiation of their party and its message is to argue that lower-turnout off-year elections don’t represent the real American people who turn out for general elections, who are presumed to give Democrats an unstoppable demographic advantage in all future elections. In part it’s a matter of having settled on a famous and “historic” (first woman) nominee while Republicans are still going about the messy business of sifting through the 14 remaining GOP candidates. And in part it’s calculated strategy, given how much of modern campaigning in general and the strategy of the stilted, sclerotic Hillary campaign in particular will depend on simply bluffing the voters into believing that she’s already an inevitable lock to win. But behind the facade of braggadocio, there are signs that Democrats are starting to worry that their 2016 strategy and prospects may not be as foolproof as advertised.
The theory that Democrats and left-leaning pundits have promulgated since 2012 is that all the old categories of “swing voters” in the center of the electorate are now irrelevant, because they can depend on a permanent general-election majority consisting of 1) mostly urban non-white voters, 2) mostly urban, childless, non-religious white progressives, and 3) the youngest voters. The only thing Democratic politicians need do, the theory goes, is to offer the needed combination of left-wing progressive politics and culture-war hot button wedge issues; after that, the data-miners and hashtag and meme factories will summon these voters to the polls out of the apathetic torpor with which they view elections and government the other 47 months of the political life cycle.

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Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:44 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 18, 2015
POLITICS: Aging Democrats

The Democrat Bench Is Shallow And Aging

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:31 AM | Politics 2015
POLITICS: The Democrat Bench Is Shallow And Aging

RS: The Democrat Bench Is Shallow And Aging

The Democrats' extensive losses in the 2010 and 2014 midterms (as well as other off-year elections in 2009, 2011, 2015 and the Governors races in 2012) have left their party hollowed out beneath the White House, which is one reason why the top two contenders in their presidential primary are a 68-year-old who arrived in Washington in 1993, and a 74-year-old who has never held a leadership position in Congress. But beyond the sheer numbers of losses in the Senate, House, Governorships, and state legislatures, there is also the fact that the GOP is building a strong, deep farm team while the Democrats are aging and not replacing their leaders with much in the way of new blood.

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Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:29 AM | Politics 2015
November 16, 2015
POLITICS: What Conservatism Is

Conservatism's Essential Element Is Experience

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:59 PM | Politics 2015
POLITICS: Jindal for President

Conservative Voters Should Give Bobby Jindal A Chance

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:54 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 4, 2015
BLOG/POLITICS: My Latest, 10/6/15-11/3/15

The Obama Administration Goes Big On Extraordinary Rendition

Bobby Jindal's Ambitious Tax Plan

Should House Republicans Draft Paul Ryan To Be Speaker?

Paul Ryan Uses His Leverage To Drive A Hard Bargain

Donald Trump Tries To Backtrack After Insulting Iowa Voters As Brain-Damaged Corn-Huffers

How and Why Ronald Reagan Won

Previewing The GOP Presidential Primary Calendar

Hillary Clinton Embraces Obama's Immigration Policy and Contempt for Congress

Seven Questions About Matt Bevin's Win In Kentucky

Posted by Baseball Crank at 2:07 PM | Blog 2006-Present • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016