Baseball Crank
"It gets late early around here." - Yogi Berra
January 29, 2016
POLITICS: Last Night's Debate Underlines Why Congress Is a Problem for the "Establishment" Republicans

NRO: Last Night's Debate Underlines Why Congress Is a Problem for the "Establishment" Republicans

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:35 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
January 19, 2016
POLITICS: ARG Polls Love John Kasich When Nobody Else Does

RS: ARG Polls Love John Kasich When Nobody Else Does

There are many rules of thumb in evaluating polls, especially in the volatile context of a primary. We usually caution people to look at polling averages rather than individual polls for a variety of reasons, not least the fact that some pollsters may have biases (even if unintentional) or may consistently produce outliers. Sometimes, of course, one pollster that sees the world differently from everyone else is right, so being way off the averages probably means the pollster is wrong, but it doesn't always.

So it is right now with American Research Group (ARG) in the New Hampshire Republican race. The RCP poll average right now has Ohio Governor John Kasich second in New Hampshire, far behind Donald Trump at 31 but with 13.3% to 11.5 for Marco Rubio, 11.3 for Ted Cruz, and 8.3 each for Chris Christie and Jeb Bush.

But the polling averages are heavily influenced by the lastest poll from ARG, which has Trump 27, Kasich 20, and Rubio 10 with everyone else in single digits. If we look at the Huffpost Pollster average, we can see what the averages look like with different pollsters in and out of the average:

nh non arg

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:30 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
January 17, 2016
POLITICS: Trumpian Motion

RS: Donald Trump Floats A Pro-Abortion Vice President

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:13 AM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
January 14, 2016
POLITICS: Rubio, Cruz, Trump

RS: Marco Rubio Is Now Getting Attacked Unfairly For Killing Charlie Crist's Climate Scheme

RS: Ted Cruz Leading Tight Iowa Race In New Gold Standard Poll

RS: The Case For Marco Rubio, Part I: Experience

RS: How A Donald Trump Nomination Would Make The GOP Consultant Class Very Rich

RS: Do Liberals Know The History Of Their Own Ideas?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:46 AM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
January 13, 2016
POLITICS: Marco Rubio Is Now Getting Attacked Unfairly For Killing Charlie Crist's Climate Scheme

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist

In 2007, Florida’s newly-elected “Republican” Governor Charlie Crist announced, with much fanfare, a costly “cap and trade” plan to regulate carbon emissions by Florida electric power plants. In the Spring 2008 legislative session, Crist pushed the Florida legislature to adopt his mandates into law. During the months-long public debate on the plan, Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio called for free-market approaches to “clean energy” and decried European-style mandates. Instead of Crist’s plan, the legislature at Rubio’s insistence passed a bill (which Crist reluctantly signed) that instructed the state Department of Environmental Protection to develop a potential plan, which would then go back to the Legislature no sooner than 2010 to put it up for a vote before Crist (who was then projected to be up for re-election in 2010) could actually do anything. The delaying tactic worked: the mandates were never passed into law, Crist ultimately ran away from them while running for Senate in 2009, in large part due to Rubio’s (successful) primary campaign, and by 2013 the whole scheme had been repealed. None of these facts are reasonably in dispute – yet Crist in 2009 ran with a wholly disingenuous attack claiming that Rubio had supported cap-and-trade, and some of Rubio’s critics in this race are recycling that attack. Charlie Crist’s sloppy seconds should be no less nasty this time.

Let’s go blow-by-blow here to get the context.

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:00 PM | Politics 2016
January 12, 2016
POLITICS: The Case For Marco Rubio, Part I: Experience

RS: The Case For Marco Rubio, Part I: Experience

House Speaker Marco Rubio, R-Coral Gables, points to his official portrait that will hang in the House chamber, Friday, May 2, 2008, in Tallahassee, Fla.  Rubio is in his final session as House Speaker.(AP Photo/Phil Coale)

The two main goals of the primary process - whether in a presidential or other race - are to choose the best candidate to do the job, and the candidate with the best chance of winning the job. Less than three weeks from the Iowa Caucus and less than a month from the New Hampshire Primary, we have reached a time for choosing. That choice involves a careful and serious weighing of those two objectives. Unlike in past years, the GOP's conservative and moderate wings are both still divided, although the options are narrowing. With my first choice (Bobby Jindal) out of the race, I believe the choice for conservatives comes down to Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz - and the best candidate remaining, on balance, is Rubio. Today, I will begin a series of posts explaining why, beginning with the question of Rubio's experience. Subsequent chapters will focus on Rubio’s salesmanship, his conservatism, and his "electability."

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 5:07 PM | Politics 2016
January 4, 2016
POLITICS: End of 2015

My last two essays of 2015 were just before Christmas:

RS: Against Despair: A Christmas Credo for Republicans

RS: What Would a Rubio Win Look Like?

On to 2016.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:47 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere