Baseball Crank
"It gets late early around here." - Yogi Berra
February 28, 2016
POLITICS: Donald Trump is a Glass-Jawed Coward Afraid to Debate Rubio or Cruz Again

RS: Donald Trump is a Glass-Jawed Coward Afraid to Debate Rubio or Cruz Again

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:14 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Donald Trump Fails Three Times to Deny the KKK

NRO: Donald Trump Fails Three Times to Deny the KKK

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:14 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 27, 2016
POLITICS: Release Your Testimony, Donald Trump

RS: Release Your Testimony, Donald Trump

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:42 PM | Law 2009-18 • | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Marco Rubio Gives Democratic Strategists The Vapors

RS: Marco Rubio Gives Democratic Strategists The Vapors

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:41 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Super Tuesday Preview: Massachusetts

RS: Super Tuesday Preview: Massachusetts

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:40 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 26, 2016
POLITICS: Will Donald Trump Bail on Future Debates?

RS: Will Donald Trump Bail on Future Debates?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:39 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 25, 2016
POLITICS: America Won Tonight's Debate

RS: America Won Tonight's Debate

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:38 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Second Florida Poll Of The Day Shows Rubio Closer To Trump

RS: Second Florida Poll Of The Day Shows Rubio Closer To Trump

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:37 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: New National Poll of Hispanics: Rubio Popular, Trump Hated

RS: New National Poll of Hispanics: Rubio Popular, Trump Hated

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:36 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
February 24, 2016
POLITICS: Rubio Campaign Calls On Trump To Renounce Pro-Trump White Supremacist Robocalls

RS: Rubio Campaign Calls On Trump To Renounce Pro-Trump White Supremacist Robocalls

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:36 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS/LAW: The Vindication of Rick Perry

RS: The Vindication of Rick Perry

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:35 PM | Law 2009-18 • | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 23, 2016
POLITICS: The Ted Cruz Campaign Will Win Or Lose By March 6

RS: The Ted Cruz Campaign Will Win Or Lose By March 6

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:25 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Nevada GOP Caucus Looks Like A Voter Fraud Bonanza

RS: Nevada GOP Caucus Looks Like A Voter Fraud Bonanza

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:03 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 22, 2016
POLITICS: 'Amnesty' Is A Majority Position With Republican Primary Voters

RS: 'Amnesty' Is A Majority Position With Republican Primary Voters

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:24 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: South Carolina By The Numbers

RS: South Carolina By The Numbers

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:23 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
February 20, 2016
POLITICS: Exit Polls From 2012, 2008 and 2000 Tell Us A Few Things About South Carolina

RS: Exit Polls From 2012, 2008 and 2000 Tell Us A Few Things About South Carolina

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:21 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
February 19, 2016
POLITICS: New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise

RS: New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:20 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
February 18, 2016
POLITICS: John Kasich's Brokered-Convention-Or-Bust Strategy

RS: John Kasich's Brokered-Convention-Or-Bust Strategy

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:19 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: The Time For Expectations Management Is Ending

RS: The Time For Expectations Management Is Ending

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:18 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
LAW: Antonin Scalia's Political Philosophy

TWS: Antonin Scalia's Political Philosophy

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:29 PM | In Print • | Law 2009-18 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 17, 2016
POLITICS: Is Jeb Bush Preparing Himself to Drop Out?

NRO: Is Jeb Bush Preparing Himself to Drop Out?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:09 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 16, 2016
POLITICS: New South Carolina Poll From CNN: The Race For 2-3-4

RS: New South Carolina Poll From CNN: The Race For 2-3-4

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:17 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: A Nutty Plan To Confirm An Obama Nominee To Replace Scalia - After The Election

RS: A Nutty Plan To Confirm An Obama Nominee To Replace Scalia - After The Election

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:15 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 15, 2016
HISTORY/LAW/POLITICS: Closing The Book On The Silent Generation

NRO: Closing The Book On The Silent Generation

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:11 PM | History • | Law 2009-18 • | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 14, 2016
POLITICS: Can Any Republican Senators Afford To Go Wobbly On A Scalia Replacement? Guess Which Ones.

RS: Can Any Republican Senators Afford To Go Wobbly On A Scalia Replacement? Guess Which Ones.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:12 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Which Obama Do Republicans Want to Nominate?

NRO: Which Obama Do Republicans Want to Nominate?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:36 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS/LAW: Scalia and South Carolina

NRO: Justice Scalia, Political Philosopher and Political Football

RS: New Hampshire Primary By The Numbers

RS: Take A RedState Presidential Electability Poll!

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:31 PM | Law 2009-18 • | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
February 9, 2016
POLITICS: New Hampshire Primary 2016

NRO: The Expectations Game, New Hampshire Primary Edition

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:30 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
February 8, 2016
POLITICS: Almost New Hampshire

RS: How Big Were The Ratings For ABC's New Hampshire Debate?

NRO: John Kasich Is Not the 'Electable' Republican

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:05 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 6, 2016
POLITICS: New Hampshire Fight Night

NRO: The Curious Case of the Senators That Didn't Bark on Debate Night

RS: Now The Marco Rubio Spin Wars Begin

NRO: What Trump Should Try To Do Tonight

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:29 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Road to New Hampshire

RS: Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part II: Swing State Electability

RS: New Hampshire Is Very Different From Iowa

RS: Paul Ryan on President Obama: Don't Feed The Troll

RS: Hear Rush Limbaugh Call Marco Rubio A "Legitimate, Full-Throated Conservative" [AUDIO]

NRO: The Two Kinds of Presidential Primary Personality Cults

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:31 PM | History • | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 5, 2016
POLITICS/HISTORY: Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part II: Swing State Electability

RS: Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part II: Swing State Electability

From left, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., and others participate in a news conference on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, May 5, 2015, to discuss support of keeping the A-10 military aircraft.  (AP Photo/Brett Carlsen)

Is "electability" a meaningless term? It is certainly an overused one, and overused words tend to lose their meaning even when they have something to tell us. In Part I, I looked at "electability" candidates in past Republican presidential primaries. But if we look at recent presidential, Senate and Governor's races, we can get a better fix on what kinds of candidates win and lose in the 17 states that represent the outer limits of "swing states." A lot of things matter in contested elections, notably the national political environment. But like it or not, good candidates is one of the things that matter. They may be conservatives or they may be moderates, and in a few cases in blue states they may even be liberal Republicans, but the answer for conservatives is not to ignore electability entirely but to develop and support conservative candidates who are winners.

One way we can do that is by running candidates with proven experience, as they tend to be less likely to make the mistakes that kill inexperienced candidates. As I noted in Part I, it is mostly a myth that the GOP has repeatedly nominated moderate losers in presidential contests because voters somehow got talked into thinking their opponents were too conservative; it has more typically been the case that we have nominated moderates because conservative opposition was divided or marginalized in the absence of a good conservative alternative, and our contested races have often been between two relatively moderate Republicans. That's what's so unusual about 2016, in which the voting begins with two viable and talented conservatives in the race (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio) and real questions about the viability of any of the moderate (Christie, Kasich) and/or establishment (Jeb) candidates.

To complete the picture of electability, let's look at the statewide races going back a decade, to 2006, the start of the current post-Bush-coalition political era, ranking statewide winners and losers by their percentage of the vote.

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:11 AM | History • | Politics 2016 • | Poll and Election Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part II: Swing State Electability

RS: Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part II: Swing State Electability

From left, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., and others participate in a news conference on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, May 5, 2015, to discuss support of keeping the A-10 military aircraft.  (AP Photo/Brett Carlsen)

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:00 AM | Politics 2016
February 3, 2016
POLITICS: Ulrich for Mayor?

RS: Bill de Blasio May Get A Republican Challenger

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:47 AM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
February 2, 2016
POLITICS: Now With More National Review

As a reminder, you can follow me on Twitter @baseballcrank or bookmark these links to catch up on my latest work:

at RedState

at The Federalist

and now at National Review

Latest since my last post here:

RS: Eight Takeaways From Iowa As New Hampshire Looms

NRO: The Iowa Caucus Expectations Game: What Do the Republican Candidates Need?

RS: BREAKING: Projected Winners: Cruz & Hillary

RS: Tim Scott to Endorse Marco Rubio

RS: Media: On Today's Glenn Beck Program

RS: Iowa Establishment Quislings Backing Trump For 30 Pieces of Ethanol?

RS: Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse Responded To Donald Trump and It Was PERFECT

RS: Michael Reagan to Donald Trump: You're No Ronald Reagan

NRO: Last Night's Debate Underlines Why Congress Is a Problem for the 'Establishment' Republicans

RS: Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part I: Presidential Primaries 1948-2012

RS: Where Will The "Republican Regular" Voters Go?

RS: The Case For Marco Rubio Part II: The Salesman

RS: New Hampshire Poll: Hillary Up 17 With Women, Bernie Up 42 With Men

RS: GOP Big Money Goes After Marco Rubio

RS: ARG Polls Love John Kasich When Nobody Else Does

RS: Dear Ted Cruz, Donald Trump & Jeb Bush: Stop Trying To Extort GOP Voters Instead of Persuading Them

February 1, 2016
POLITICS: The Iowa Caucus Expectations Game: What Do the Republican Candidates Need?

NRO: The Iowa Caucus Expectations Game: What Do the Republican Candidates Need?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 5:42 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere