Baseball Crank
"It gets late early around here." - Yogi Berra
May 30, 2016
HISTORY: Remember Joseph Warren This Memorial Day

RS: Remember Joseph Warren This Memorial Day

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:27 PM | History • | Writings Elsewhere
May 25, 2016
POLITICS: The Dog That Didn't Bark: Trump Voters in Down-Ballot Primaries

NRO: The Dog That Didn't Bark: Trump Voters in Down-Ballot Primaries

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:29 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
May 23, 2016
POLITICS: You Won't Believe Why Hillary Bagman Terry McAuliffe Is Under Federal Investigation

RS: You Won't Believe Why Hillary Bagman Terry McAuliffe Is Under Federal Investigation

Posted by Baseball Crank at 8:04 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
May 18, 2016
POLITICS/LAW: Three Thoughts on Donald Trump's Supreme Court List

NRO: Three Thoughts on Donald Trump's Supreme Court List

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:48 PM | Law 2009-Present • | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
May 17, 2016
POLITICS: The Never Trump Movement Is Neither Anti-American Nor Hypocritical

RS: The Never Trump Movement Is Neither Anti-American Nor Hypocritical

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:54 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
May 11, 2016
POLITICS: A Very Different Republican Coalition: Can It Fly?

RS: A Very Different Republican Coalition: Can It Fly?

A group of coal miners wave signs for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump as they wait for a rally in Charleston, W.Va., Thursday, May 5, 2016. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

There's been a lot of attention paid to Donald Trump's appeal to a particular type of voter: white working class, no college degree, not that religious or socially conservative but anti-immigration. Let's look at a few exit poll numbers to contemplate how a Trump coalition might be shaped very differently from Mitt Romney's coalition, which drew together a respectable but insufficient 47% of the general electorate.

I did some simple algebra combining the share of each group in the electorate and the share won by each candidate, to consider what chunk of their voters fell in each group. For example, college graduates were 45% of the 2012 general electorate and Romney won 48% of them, so whereas non-college-grads were 53% and Romney won 47% of them - thus college-educated Romney voters were 23% of all voters, non-college-educated Romney voters were 25% of all voters, and accordingly college-educated voters made up 48% of the Romney vote. For purposes of this exercise I looked back at the Trump coalition in three states that were decisive (Indiana, Florida and South Carolina). While primary and general election coalitions are different animals, this is the data we have to work with so far, and it gives us a clue as to some of Trump's challenges ahead, as well as how a candidate with Trump's appeal to such groups could be an electoral force if that candidate wasn't also as off-putting as Trump is to other core elements of the Romney coalition.

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Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:19 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
May 6, 2016
POLITICS: Is #NeverTrump Doomed To Fold?

NRO: Is #NeverTrump Doomed To Fold?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:34 PM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
May 5, 2016
POLITICS: Dear Republican Politician: Let's Talk about Donald Trump

NRO: Dear Republican Politician: Let's Talk about Donald Trump

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:32 PM | Writings Elsewhere
May 4, 2016
POLITICS: Politics Is Still Downstream of Culture

RS: Politics Is Still Downstream of Culture

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:34 PM | Writings Elsewhere
POLITICS: Trump's Next Victim: Pollsters

RS: Trump's Next Victim: Pollsters

Citizen Kane Fraud at Polls

Donald Trump has proven adept at corrupting everyone and everything that comes into his orbit. He has constructed a kind of cargo-cult imitation of a real political campaign, with press flacks and pundits and elected officials and "policy advisors" and even now speechwriters all acting as if Trump was a real candidate rather than a bad joke told too long. But the one thing Trump has not really needed so far was thoroughly bogus general election polls. Oh, his strength has been overstated in some national primary polls, and the online Reuters poll has been a particular favorite. But Trump in the primaries has mostly been content to tell bald-face lies about his polling against Hillary Clinton, content that any rebuttal could be shouted down with "BUT I AM BEATING YOU IN THE PRIMARY SO YOU MUST BE WORSE."

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Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:33 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
May 1, 2016
POLITICS: Yes, Donald Trump Would Be Worse Than Any Prior Republican Nominee

RS: Yes, Donald Trump Would Be Worse Than Any Prior Republican Nominee

RomneyMcCain
My reasons for not voting for Donald Trump, even in a general election against Hillary Clinton, are straightforward. Trump is not with me on any issue I care about, would be a terrible and unstable Commander-in-Chief, and would discredit and poison the party and the movement I believe in. Why on earth would I give my vote to him, ever? One of the standard questions asked of #NeverTrump voters is why we find Trump a bridge too far even though a lot of #NeverTrump voters have voted for some pretty disappointing Republican candidates before.

Why now? Why Trump?

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Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:31 AM | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere