Baseball Studies Archives

Part 6 of my preseason previews is the NL Central; this is the last of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold. Prior previews: AL Central and AL West, AL East, NL East, NL West.

I'll be frank: as often happens, I'm a bit at the end of my tether and pushing to get done after the season starts when I get to the NL Central, baseball's largest division and the one with the most lost ships. The numbers are all here, but some of the commentary may be a bit abbreviated.

Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)

Chicago Cubs

Raw EWSL: 226.00 (75 W)
Adjusted: 245.11 (82 W)
Age-Adj.: 217.59 (73 W)
2009 W-L: 85-77

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Geovany Soto*	12	24
1B	33	Derrek Lee	16	13
2B	29	Mike Fontenot#	8	7
SS	29	Ryan Theriot	13	12
3B	31	Aramis Ramirez	23	19
RF	31	Milton Bradley	15	13
CF	32	Kosuke Fukudome*	8	12
LF	33	Alfonso Soriano	19	16
C2	30	Koyie Hill	0	0
INF	32	Aaron Miles	10	8
OF	32	Reed Johnson	10	8
12	28	Joey Gathright	6	6
13	29	Micah Hoffpauir+	2	4
SP1	28	Carlos Zambrano	16	16
SP2	27	Rich Harden	9	9
SP3	33	Ted Lilly	13	9
SP4	32	Ryan Dempster	13	9
SP5	26	Sean Marshall	4	5
RP1	31	Kevin Gregg	10	8
RP2	26	Carlos Marmol	10	11
RP3	29	Neal Cotts	2	1
RP4	34	Luis Vizcaino	4	3
RP5	30	Aaron Heilman	5	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - So Taguchi. Esteban German was cut and headed for the Rangers.

Pitchers - Relievers Angel Guzman and David Patton, starting prospect Jeff Samardzija. Chad Gaudin was cut and has caught on with the Padres.

Analysis: The Cubs are the favorites in the NL Central; they're not any more an overpowering one than the Dodgers, but they're a good, solid team and nobody else in the division has a proven basis for being considered one. As usual, the health of Rich Harden will be a significant factor - Harden's still only 27, but has the medical history of a 37-year-old. Soto's recent banged-up status is also a concern; catchers have that and thus far it may just be routine, but he's such a valuable commodity the Cubs would be in trouble if he ends up with one of those lost seasons that happen to catchers sometimes.

Milwaukee Brewers

Raw EWSL: 205.00 (68 W)
Adjusted: 217.72 (73 W)
Age-Adj.: 212.57 (71 W)
2009 W-L: 84-78

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	35	Jason Kendall	16	11
1B	25	Prince Fielder	23	28
2B	26	Rickie Weeks	14	16
SS	26	JJ Hardy	17	19
3B	29	Bill Hall	11	10
RF	27	Corey Hart	16	17
CF	36	Mike Cameron	19	15
LF	25	Ryan Braun*	19	28
C2	32	Mike Rivera	3	2
INF	38	Craig Counsell	7	5
OF	29	Chris Duffy	3	2
12	26	Casey McGeehee	0	4
13	26	Brad Nelson+	0	4
SP1	23	Yovanni Gallardo#	4	5
SP2	34	Jeff Suppan	8	5
SP3	26	Manny Parra#	5	6
SP4	29	David Bush	8	7
SP5	34	Braden Looper	9	6
RP1	41	Trevor Hoffman	10	7
RP2	25	Carlos Villanueva	6	7
RP3	28	Seth McClung	4	4
RP4	28	Todd Coffey	2	2
RP5	30	Jorge Julio	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but Gallardo is a heckuva pitcher and if healthy should blow by that EWSL. I didn't ding Hoffman, since his EWSL incorporates the injury woes of fortysomething pitchers.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Tony Gwynn jr.

Pitchers - David Riske, Mitch Stetter, Wes Littleton, Chris Capuano, and Chase Wright.

Analysis: The Brewers return the same lineup and should score runs in bunches with all that power, but the pitching staff has been decimated by the departure of Sheets and Sabathia and the failure of Capuano. Suppan's K rate was in decay last season, and through 2 starts so far he has 7 BB, 2 K and a 12.91 ERA in 7.2 IP. It's possible that a healthy Gallardo could be an ace, and it's possible that they'll find the money to bring Sheets back in midseason, but on the whole this team just doesn't have the arms.

When I mentioned the National League's oversupply of failed Mets relievers, I forgot to note the Brew Crew with Looper and Julio. They should make Willie Randolph feel right at home.

St. Louis Cardinals

Raw EWSL: 181.67 (61 W)
Adjusted: 201.84 (67 W)
Age-Adj.: 185.89 (62 W)
2009 W-L: 75-87

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Yadier Molina	13	15
1B	29	Albert Pujols	34	32
2B	29	Skip Schumaker#	10	12
SS	29	Khalil Greene	11	10
3B	26	David Freese+	0	4
RF	30	Ryan Ludwick	15	13
CF	29	Rick Ankiel#	9	10
LF	28	Chris Duncan	10	10
C2	35	Jason LaRue	4	2
INF	32	Troy Glaus	17	14
OF	22	Colby Rasmus+	0	4
12	28	Brian Barden#	0	4
13	27	Brendan Ryan#	3	3
SP1	27	Adam Wainwright	11	11
SP2	30	Kyle Lohse	10	8
SP3	30	Joel Pineiro	3	3
SP4	30	Todd Wellemeyer	8	7
SP5	34	Chris Carpenter	4	2
RP1	27	Jason Motte+	1	6
RP2	27	Brad Thompson	4	3
RP3	36	Ryan Franklin	7	6
RP4	32	Dennis Reyes	5	4
RP5	36	Trever Miller	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None. The 3B situation is in flux pending Glaus' return, which may take months; I have Freese listed as the starter but graded as a bench player rather than take the WS out of Glaus, and anyway Joe Thurston is battling Freese for the playing time. Carpenter's injury is in line with his recent history, so no adjustment needed.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Thurston, Joe Mather, Brian Barton. Mather and Rasmus are the team's outfielders of the future, but only if they can get rid of the current outfield.

Pitchers - Kyle McClellan, who's been perhaps their best reliever in the early going, Josh Kinney, and Royce Ring.

Analysis: The Cards have started hot, and this team often has people who surprise me - two of the three outfielders (Duncan and Ludwick) have picked up where Ankiel and Ludwick left off last year. I'd warn that Pujols is reaching the age where guys as good as him start to be less consistently awesome every single year, but he hasn't looked thus far like this will be the year he gets his first taste of kryptonite. He'll be the best player in the game until someone wrests the title from him (although EWSL does rate Hanley Ramirez above him due to his youth).

Greene is an offensive enigma. Entering last season, while his overall numbers were poor because he hit so badly in San Diego, he had a career road batting line of .280/.338/.515, but he batted .212/.225/.317 on the road last season and has hit .158/.158/.316 on the road in the early going this year. He'll run out of excuses if he repeats last year's road performance.

Houston Astros

Raw EWSL: 210.50 (70 W)
Adjusted: 214.57 (72 W)
Age-Adj.: 181.56 (61 W)
2009 W-L: 73-89

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	37	Ivan Rodriguez	14	9
1B	33	Lance Berkman	31	26
2B	33	Kaz Matsui	12	10
SS	35	Miguel Tejada	16	11
3B	36	Geoff Blum	9	7
RF	26	Hunter Pence#	16	21
CF	26	Michael Bourn#	5	7
LF	33	Carlos Lee	22	18
C2	29	Humberto Quintero	2	2
INF	29	Jeff Keppinger	8	8
OF	33	Jason Michaels	7	6
12	35	Darin Erstad	6	4
13	31	Jason Smith	1	1
SP1	31	Roy Oswalt	17	15
SP2	30	Wandy Rodriguez	7	6
SP3	36	Mike Hampton	2	1
SP4	37	Brian Moehler	5	4
SP5	35	Russ Ortiz	1	0
RP1	29	Jose Valverde	12	11
RP2	32	Geoff Geary	6	5
RP3	35	Tim Byrdak	3	2
RP4	36	LaTroy Hawkins	5	5
RP5	31	Chris Sampson	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Catching prospect JR Towles, who suffered a colossal (.137/.250/.253) wipeout last year, and outfield nomad Reggie Abercrombie. Aaron Boone was slated to play but will miss the season following heart surgery.

Pitchers - Doug Brocail started off in the pen but hit the DL after early ineffectiveness. Wesley Wright and Clay Hensley will be in the pen, and Brandon Backe's still trying to get back where he was. Jeff Fulchino and Jose Capellan are also on hand.

Analysis: The Astros were surprisingly competitive in 2008, but they were 9 games above their Pythagorean record, their team is old, and frankly they are fooling themselves if they think this roster is anything but spare parts to sell to contenders, or in the case of the back end of their rotation, guys who should have been put to pasture by now.

Lance Berkman had to win the 2008 "guy least likely to double his career high in steals while hardly ever getting caught" award. Berkman is basically Bob Horner if he'd stayed in shape, but he's a better athlete than Horner was even when young.

Cincinnati Reds

Raw EWSL: 156.67 (52 W)
Adjusted: 174.71 (58 W)
Age-Adj.: 174.65 (58 W)
2009 W-L: 71-91

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	33	Ramon Hernandez	13	11
1B	25	Joey Votto*	11	15
2B	28	Brandon Phillips	18	18
SS	32	Alex Gonzalez	5	4
3B	26	Edwin Encarnacion	15	17
RF	22	Jay Bruce*	4	14
CF	27	Willy Taveras	9	9
LF	33	Jerry Hairston jr	7	6
C2	28	Ryan Hanigan*	2	4
INF	26	Paul Janish+	1	4
OF	27	Chris Dickerson*	3	5
12	30	Darnell McDonald+	1	1
13	28	Laynce Nix	0	0
SP1	25	Edinson Volquez	9	10
SP2	31	Aaron Harang	12	10
SP3	32	Bronson Arroyo	12	9
SP4	23	Johnny Cueto*	3	6
SP5	26	Micah Owings#	5	7
RP1	34	Francisco Cordero	12	8
RP2	39	David Weathers	9	8
RP3	34	Mike Lincoln	2	1
RP4	39	Arthur Rhodes	4	3
RP5	28	Jared Burton#	5	6

Subjective Adjustments: None. I thought of knocking Jay Bruce up a few spots, but 22 year olds, even ones who are accurately projected as big stars, are never a sure thing to make that dramatic an improvement. And Volquez has been kicking around long enough that I wasn't at liberty to just disregard his pre-2008 performance.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Jonny Gomes, Jacque Jones and Norris Hopper; Daryle Ward got cut.

Pitchers - Relievers Bill Bray, Danny Herrera and Nick Masset, and starter Homer Bailey, who seems to have been reclassified pretty swiftly from the next Clemens to the next Schiraldi but is still young and hard-throwing enough that nobody's counting him out yet. If nothing else, Bailey will get the chance to break the reputations of a few more pitching coaches before he's through.

Analysis: The Reds will feel the loss of Dunn, and at least symbolically the loss of Griffey as well, but there remains enough young talent here to build on with Votto, Bruce, Volquez and Cueto; it's just that there are still a lot of holes as well. Dickerson is sharing time with Hairston in left. I'm not sure I see the point of employing Taveras to play in a bandbox - it was one thing to live with his slap hitting in Colorado, where at least the vast outfield requires a fleet center fielder.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Raw EWSL: 135.83 (45 W)
Adjusted: 142.68 (48 W)
Age-Adj.: 136.16 (45 W)
2009 W-L: 58-104

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Ryan Doumit	12	13
1B	29	Adam LaRoche	16	15
2B	31	Freddy Sanchez	16	14
SS	31	Jack Wilson	12	10
3B	25	AndyLaRoche#	2	2
RF	25	Brandon Moss*	3	6
CF	27	Nate McLouth	16	16
LF	28	Njyer Morgan#	3	3
C2	26	Jason Jaramillo+	0	4
INF	32	Ramon Vazquez	7	6
OF	32	Craig Monroe	5	4
12	31	Eric Hinske	7	6
13	25	Luis Cruz*	1	1
SP1	27	Ian Snell	6	6
SP2	26	Zach Duke	4	4
SP3	27	Paul Maholm	7	7
SP4	26	Ross Ohlendorf*	1	1
SP5	26	Jeff Karstens	1	1
RP1	25	Matt Capps	9	10
RP2	31	Tyler Yates	3	2
RP3	30	John Grabow	5	4
RP4	26	Sean Burnett	1	1
RP5	25	Craig Hansen	1	1

Subjective Adjustments: None. The Pirates are, however, a classic vacuum situation: there's a lot of young guys on hand who haven't established themselves, most of whom have failed in a half a season or so worth of playing time but haven't yet proven themselves failures. A few of those single-digit guys in the lineup are bound to find their sea legs enough to keep this team from being quite as bad as 104 losses, but they won't be able to keep them far from the cellar.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Cruz was listed by default, as he seems to have been less of a proven failure than Brian Bixler, also a shortstop. Also catcher Robinson Diaz and outfielder Andrew McCutchen.

Pitchers - Relievers Jesse Chavez and Donald Veal; starter Tom Gorzelanny is in AAA purgatory. Phil Dumatrait is injured.

Analysis: There's no sense blowing up a bad team in exchange for prospects if you're not gonna play the prospects, and so that's what the Pirates are doing: the younger LaRoche, Moss, Ohlendorf, Karstens, and Hansen are the bounty of various deals the last few seasons as Pirate veterans like Jason Bay and Xavier Nady were sent to contenders, and Pittsburgh means to find out if they can do the job. It's still a shame that a storied franchise playing in a beautiful new stadium can't support itself - the Pirates' winning percentage dating back to 1993, during which they've suffered 16 straight losing seasons, is .438, good for a 71-91 record over a 162 game season, and they haven't finished higher than 6th in the NL in attendance since 1972, not even when they won the World Series in 1979 or the three straight division titles in the Bonds/Bonilla/Van Slyke era. 2001, when they opened PNC Park, is the only time in franchise history they've averaged more than 26,000 fans per game, and 1990-91 were the only other years they cracked the 2 million mark. It's hard to paint the current rebuilding effort with much hope if there just isn't any reason to believe that the current club ownership thinks it could make more money by having a winning team.

Read More »

Part 5 of my preseason previews is the NL West; this is the fifth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold. Prior previews: AL Central and AL West, AL East, NL East.

Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Raw EWSL: 232.67 (78 W)
Adjusted: 251.63 (84 W)
Age-Adj.: 234.49 (78 W)
2009 W-L: 91-71

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Russell Martin	20	22
1B	25	James Loney#	13	18
2B	31	Orlando Husdon	19	16
SS	31	Rafael Furcal	14	11
3B	35	Casey Blake	15	10
RF	27	Andre Ethier	18	18
CF	24	Matt Kemp	13	17
LF	37	Manny Ramirez	25	16
C2	40	Brad Ausmus	8	4
INF	35	Doug Mientkiewicz	8	5
OF	31	Juan Pierre	11	9
12	37	Mark Loretta	11	7
13	23	Blake DeWitt*	6	12
SP1	24	Chad Billingsley	13	15
SP2	34	Hiroki Kuroda*	5	7
SP3	21	Clayton Kershaw*	3	7
SP4	32	Randy Wolf	6	4
SP5	36	Jason Schmidt	3	2
RP1	25	Jonathan Broxton	10	11
RP2	26	Cory Wade*	4	7
RP3	31	Will Ohman	4	3
RP4	35	Guillermo Mota	3	2
RP5	27	Hong-Chih Kuo	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None; this team is pretty heavy on established talent.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Infielder Tony Abreu, outfielders Jason Repko and Delwyn Young, and catcher Danny Ardoin.

Pitchers - Claudio Vargas is on the 60-day DL. Joe Torre wants Jeff Weaver to take a crack as a reliever, but for now, Weaver and Shawn Estes are Isotopes. Also Ronald Belisario, Ramon Trancoso, and James McDonald.

Analysis: The Dodgers bear a pretty strong Joe Torre stamp by now, especially the antiquarian bench. 16 Win Shares still looks small for Manny after his colossal 2008 stretch run, but the history of 37-year-old hitters is ugly; even if he hits, there's the risk of injury. The Manny lovefest in LA has already been tarnished some by the offseason wrangling; it will be Torre's job to keep him happy for another year (you take one month at a time with Manny). Hudson, meanwhile, should upgrade the interior defense (especially if Furcal is healthy), helping offset an outfield defense with Kemp stretched in center and Manny in left. The pivotal guy for the offense, though, may be Loney, a lifetime .304 hitter who is about reaching the point where he'll either start hitting some home runs or never do it.

The rotation's combination of the young, wild Kershaw and the surgically rebuilt Wolf and Schmidt is naturally unstable, and will undoubtedly at some point tempt Torre to put Kuo back into a starter's role. Then again, the bullpen isn't that solid even when healthy.

The Dodgers are the natural favorite in the West, but age and injuries will be their trial.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Raw EWSL: 210.33 (70 W)
Adjusted: 222.03 (74 W)
Age-Adj.: 216.61 (72 W)
2009 W-L: 85-77

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Chris Snyder	14	14
1B	29	Chad Tracy	6	6
2B	29	Felipe Lopez	11	11
SS	26	Stephen Drew	17	19
3B	25	Mark Reynolds#	13	19
RF	21	Justin Upton*	4	8
CF	25	Chris Young#	14	19
LF	27	Conor Jackson	15	16
C2	25	Miguel Montero#	3	4
INF	34	Augie Ojeda	4	4
OF	33	Eric Byrnes	11	9
12	37	Tony Clark	3	2
13	25	Alex Romero*	1	1
SP1	30	Brandon Webb	21	18
SP2	28	Danny Haren	18	17
SP3	33	Doug Davis	9	6
SP4	29	Jon Garland	11	10
SP5	24	Max Scherzer*	2	5
RP1	30	Chad Qualls	10	9
RP2	30	Jon Rauch	9	8
RP3	27	Tony Pena	7	7
RP4	41	Tom Gordon	4	3
RP5	35	Scott Schoeneweis	4	2

Subjective Adjustments: None. Scherzer seems likely to do better than 5 Win Shares if he's healthy, but combine that with the uncertainty inherent in any young pitcher, and I'm leaving him as is. Webb's injury doesn't yet look bad enough for me to feel confident about downgrading him from 18.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Infielder/utilityman Ryan Roberts.

Pitchers - Relievers Doug Slaten, Billy Buckner and Juan Gutierrez and swingman Yusmiero Petit.

Analysis: You need three things to develop a young team into a powerhouse. One, you need a plan that identifies good young talent, commits to developing young players and slotting them into your lineup and pitching staff. Two, you need money - at least enough money to keep guys up through free agency and bring in the occasional complementary veteran. And three, you need luck - all the scouting in the world can't guarantee you'll land a major star.

The D-Backs have executed the first two parts of the plan: by a weighted average of their starting lineup by non-age-adjusted EWSL, they come in at an average age of 26.5, right on the sweet spot for a team coming into its own. They have multi-talented athletes, power threats, good gloves....but as of yet, when you let the park-effect air out (besides scoring 4.84 runs/game in 81 games at Chase Field last season, they scored 6.11 runs per game in their 9 road games at Coors, compared to 3.79 everywhere else), there are no stars in this lineup. And Reynolds, with his stone glove and outrageous K rate, isn't primed to become one, which leaves the D-Backs hoping either that (1) Drew or Young will have a big year or (2) Upton will mature into a star faster than his brother did.

Arizona seems a perfect illustration, however, of Bill James' "Devil's Theory of Ballparks," by which teams in good hitters' parks get complacent about mediocre hitters who put up big numbers, but develop outstanding pitching staffs because only the strong survive there (and vice versa for pitcher's parks). (The theory has exceptions, as an extreme location like Colorado simply destroys pitchers). Because what the D-Backs do have is - at least when healthy - a genuinely outstanding rotation. Scherzer, who throws nasty stuff in the high 90s, should make for a fearsome Big 3 when he comes off the DL tonight, assuming he can stay healthy and nothing is seriously wrong with Webb's shoulder. Haren in particular managed the difficult feat of setting a career high in K/9 and career lows in HR/9 and BB/9 while moving into high-scoring Chase.

Arizona's main asset last season was their superior ability to pound the NL West's three weak sisters: they went 8-10 head to head against the Dodgers, but picked up six games by going 36-18 against Colorado, San Francisco and San Diego (they were 15-3 against the Rox) compared to 30-24 by the Dodgers.

I expect Arizona, as usual, to hang in the division and wild card races to the end. The health question marks about their pitching, and the loss of Orlando Hudson's glove, are the main reasons to hesitate picking them as the favorites in the NL West.

Colorado Rockies

Raw EWSL: 170.67 (57 W)
Adjusted: 185.44 (62 W)
Age-Adj.: 182.72 (61 W)
2009 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Chris Iannetta#	10	14
1B	35	Todd Helton	15	10
2B	30	Clint Barmes	7	6
SS	24	Troy Tulowitzki#	13	19
3B	29	Garrett Atkins	16	15
RF	30	Brad Hawpe	17	15
CF	29	Ryan Spilborghs	8	7
LF	26	Seth Smith*	2	3
C2	30	Yorvit Torrealba	5	4
INF	24	Ian Stewart*	5	12
OF	23	Dexter Fowler+	0	4
12	28	Jeff Baker	4	4
13	27	Omar Quintanilla	2	2
SP1	30	Aaron Cook	13	11
SP2	25	Ubaldo Jimenez#	7	9
SP3	30	Jason Marquis	7	6
SP4	28	Jorge De La Rosa	4	4
SP5	23	Franklin Morales#	1	2
RP1	25	Huston Street	11	12
RP2	26	Manny Corpas	9	9
RP3	27	Taylor Buchholz	6	6
RP4	32	Jason Grilli	6	4
RP5	39	Alan Embree	5	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Outfielders Matt Murton, Carlos Gonzalez and Eric Young (that's Eric junior), and 1B Dan Ortmeier. Scott Podsednik was cut and signed with the White Sox.

Pitchers - Ace Jeff Francis is out for the season following shoulder surgery. Many options are on hand: starters Greg Smith, Josh Fogg, Jason Hammell, Greg Reynolds and Glendon Rusch, and relievers Matt Belisle and Ryan Speier. I didn't say they were all good options, but Smith at least deserves another chance in a big-league rotation after posting a 4.16 ERA in 32 starts with Oakland last year (although his peripheral numbers were not encouraging).

Analysis: The departure of Matt Holliday and the loss of Francis formalized the Rockies' return to full-time also-ran status, and Helton's advancing age and declining health and production (just 29 RBI last season) mark the end of an era in Colorado baseball. The lineup is weak, the rotation in shambles. Fowler and Stewart will probably end up playing a lot - Fowler's had more plate appearances than Seth Smith so far, and there's not going to be any reason not to let the kids play.

I understand why people think Huston Street was overrated in Oakland, and certainly his start this season (10.12 ERA through 3 appearances) is not encouraging, but I don't subscribe to the idea that a guy who entered the season with career averages of 0.6 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 is a certain disaster waiting to happen or necessarily a bad pick over Corpas to close. Street's only 25, he should have more up his sleeve. That said, there have been concerns over both his and Corpas' velocity, and Street's not a guy who can lose a few miles off his heater and remain an elite reliever.

San Francisco Giants

Raw EWSL: 173.50 (58 W)
Adjusted: 188.93 (63 W)
Age-Adj.: 178.62 (60 W)
2009 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	34	Ben Molina	16	13
1B	25	Travis Ishikawa*	2	5
2B	24	Emanuel Burriss*	2	5
SS	33	Edgar Renteria	12	11
3B	22	Pablo Sandoval*	3	12
RF	35	Randy Winn	17	12
CF	31	Aaron Rowand	15	13
LF	28	Fred Lewis#	8	10
C2	37	Rich Aurilia	9	12
INF	29	Juan Uribe	12	11
OF	25	Nate Schierholtz#	2	3
12	27	Eugenio Velez*	2	4
13	31	Andres Torres	0	0
SP1	25	Tim Lincecum#	15	20
SP2	24	Matt Cain	13	15
SP3	26	Jonathan Sanchez#	3	4
SP4	45	Randy Johnson	9	6
SP5	31	Barry Zito	8	7
RP1	27	Brian Wilson	6	6
RP2	35	Bobby Howry	7	4
RP3	30	Jeremy Affeldt	5	4
RP4	29	Brandon Medders	2	2
RP5	26	Alex Hinshaw*	2	4

Subjective Adjustments: None. I could bump up Ishikawa on the same theory as I used to bump up Ortmeier last season, but that didn't work out so well.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Steve Holm is the #2 catcher, but has been sent down, so Sandoval will back up Molina. That's why I listed Aurilia as the backup catcher, since he will likely sub for Sandoval at third when Sandoval catches. I'm not sure I've seen a team carry only one catcher and use the backup to play everyday at another position before (maybe the Yankees when they used Elston Howard in left, before they got Johnny Blanchard). Also Kevin Frandsen.

Pitchers - Noah Lowry, still struggling to reclaim his past form; Joe Martinez, who is injured; and Justin Miller and his armful of tattoos.

Analysis: The Giants are probably a year away from getting a handle on whether any of their youngsters are going to be productive regulars, but at least they now have some. On the other hand, with a heavy investment in starting pitching, they have made the defensible decision to rest on veterans in the key defensive slots at C, SS and CF (perhaps less defensible in Renteria's case, as his glove is somewhat shaky at this stage). Progress by Sanchez in throwing some strikes and/or a return to form by Lowry would be a big help.

If you are wondering, Nolan Ryan at Johnson's age - 45 - remained effective and a power pitcher, but saw his K rate drop from 10.56 to 8.98. Johnson's throwing well thus far, and while his durability is dubious at best, he seems to have recovered his strikeout rates from their dropoff with the Yankees.

San Diego Padres

Raw EWSL: 145.50(49 W)
Adjusted: 170.47 (57 W)
Age-Adj.: 159.34 (53 W)
2009 W-L: 66-96

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Nick Hundley*	2	4
1B	27	Adrian Gonzalez	23	24
2B	34	David Eckstein	10	9
SS	29	Luis Rodriguez	3	2
3B	27	Kevin Kouzmanoff#	12	15
RF	38	Brian Giles	19	14
CF	31	Jody Gerut	7	5
LF	25	Chase Headley*	4	10
C2	37	Henry Blanco	3	2
INF	31	Edgar Gonzalez*	4	6
OF	29	Scott Hairston	7	6
12	36	Cliff Floyd	7	5
13	22	Everth Cabrera+	0	4
SP1	28	Jake Peavy	16	15
SP2	30	Chris Young	9	7
SP3	29	Cha Seung Baek#	4	3
SP4	28	Kevin Correia	4	4
SP5	32	Walter Silva+	0	4
RP1	31	Heath Bell	8	6
RP2	26	Cla Meredith	5	5
RP3	25	Edward Mujica*	0	0
RP4	25	Luke Gregerson+	0	6
RP5	29	Duaner Sanchez	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Perennial journeyman outfielder Emil Brown.

Pitchers - Starters Shawn Hill and Mark Prior, although Prior is way, way off anybody's radar to pitch again soon. Reliever Mike Adams, who is injured. Also Edwin Moreno and Eulogio De La Cruz.

Analysis: The Padres win this year's award, usually going to the Marlins, for most players I had to add to the spreadsheets for the first time; it's practically half the roster, as only 8 players return from last season's Padres depth chart. The Mets announcers last night quoted Bud Black as saying that the Padres' bullpen would change as other teams released people, which pretty much speaks for itself. Don't be fooled by the 6-2 start, this team has a lot of holes and comparatively few strengths. Hundley, if you are wondering, is no relation to Todd and Randy; he just happens to be a weak-hitting catcher named Hundley.

If nothing else, the Mets can feel good about having distributed their failed relievers across the NL - Mota in LA, Schoeneweis in Arizona, Sanchez in SD, Heilman in Chicago, Jorge Sosa in Washington. Of course, if watching Sanchez and Bell last night is any indication, those guys will be lights out against the Mets.

Read More »

Part 4 of my preseason previews is the NL East; this is the fourth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold. Prior previews: AL Central and AL West, AL East.

Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)

New York Mets

Raw EWSL: 254.67 (85 W)
Adjusted: 264.84 (88 W)
Age-Adj.: 240.03 (80 W)
2009 W-L: 93-69

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	32	Brian Schneider	10	8
1B	37	Carlos Delgado	20	13
2B	33	Luis Castillo	12	10
SS	26	Jose Reyes	27	30
3B	26	David Wright	30	34
RF	30	Ryan Church	12	10
CF	32	Carlos Beltran	29	23
LF	24	Daniel Murphy*	3	8
C2	33	Ramon Castro	5	4
INF	33	Alex Cora	5	4
OF	34	Fernando Tatis	7	6
12	40	Gary Sheffield	9	5
13	28	Jeremy Reed	2	2
SP1	30	Johan Santana	20	17
SP2	25	Mike Pelfrey	8	8
SP3	28	John Maine	8	8
SP4	27	Oliver Perez	7	7
SP5	34	Livan Hernandez	7	4
RP1	27	Francisco Rodriguez	16	15
RP2	32	JJ Putz	12	9
RP3	32	Pedro Feliciano	5	4
RP4	30	Sean Green	4	3
RP5	24	Bobby Parnell+	0	6

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Utilityman/pinch hitter Marlon Anderson is clinging to the last roster spot for now; he will probably be moving soon into a role as a third base coach. Nick Evans was the odd man out in the outfield corners but remains a promising if unspectacular prospect. Angel Pagan, now long-forgotten after last year's hot start, will return to the outfield mix when he returns from injury, but continues to lack any significant skills. Robinson Cancel is the third catcher when he finds space on the roster, as he will do whenever Castro is on the DL. Fernando Martinez remains a heralded prospect but has yet to put up numbers commensurate with that status and is unlikely to get more than a late-season cup of tea; perhaps he'll still end up a superstar, but perhaps he should have been traded while his reputation was sky-high.

Pitchers - Billy Wagner is out for most or all of the season, but the bullpen could really be impressive if he makes it back by September, as has not yet been ruled out. Darren O'Day is currently in the pen. Jon Niese will likely claim the fifth starter job eventually; rehabbing Freddy Garcia and organizational fodder Nelson Figueroa and Casey Fossum are also candidates. Other pitchers in the mix include reliever Brian Stokes, swing man Tim Redding (also on the DL) and starter Brandon Knight. Orlando Hernandez remains unsigned at last check; I've lost track of whether he's trying to pitch this season, but it won't be with the Mets; the same goes for Matt Wise. A return of Pedro Martinez hasn't been ruled out - Omar still loves him - but seems unlikely.

Analysis: This Mets team is no juggernaut, but it could well be enough to take the division despite the weak links at second base, catcher and the outfield corners, due to the powerful frontline talent that if anything has gotten younger the past two years as K-Rod, Santana and Pelfrey have replaced Wagner, Pedro and Glavine. The bullpen should be improved, although as I have noted repeatedly, K-Rod's workload and declining K rate and Putz's health are both risks. But this team will ultimately rise or fall on its starting pitching; the front four starters all have their risk factors but they all have upsides too, albeit in Santana's case his upside is doing the same thing again. Santana's gradual transition to a control pitcher is a concern, as are Pelfrey's big jump-up in innings last season and still low K rate. Perez might flop or bust out or pretty much anywhere in between. But the most pivotal of all is Maine, who showed flashes of real star potential in late 2006 and much of 2007, but faded down the stretch in 2007 (other than his sensational start the next to last day of the season) and was sufficiently hobbled by injury last year to raise questions about whether he's cut out to be a starter at all. If Maine fails to make 30 starts this season, his days as a starting pitcher may be numbered.

Let's compare two starters in 2008:

Age	IP/G	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
36	5.45	5.61	10.49	1.57	3.63	7.18
33	5.81	6.05	12.85	1.25	2.15	3.35

The first, of course, is Pedro Martinez; the second is Livan Hernandez (who may or may not actually be 34 years old now). Livan allowed 257 hits in 180 innings in 2008; among pitchers to qualify for the ERA title, that's the third-highest hits/innings ratio since 1900, and the top two pitched in the Baker Bowl in the 1930s. Neither was effective in 2008, but looking at those lines I'd take Pedro's still-respectable K numbers and K/BB ratio (and velocity and ability to change speeds) over Livan's superior control and less gruesome HR numbers. The Mets have their reasons for preferring Livan - partly his durability and mostly his lower salary demands - but it would be hard to justify preferring Livan as a baseball decision.

Sometimes, players have a clear trendline pointing one way or another, but Carlos Delgado is all ways at once. On the one hand, he's 37 and coming off a year of dramatic improvement, so you would expect a serious dropoff; on the other, he's leaving a park that just murdered him (Delgado batted .237/.337/.458 for his career at Shea Stadium, although he did hit 21 homers at home last year), and he tore the cover off the ball after getting healthy again after a string of nagging injuries. My hope is that Delgado will take a slow decline from where he was the last four months of last season, which might mean, say, 28 HR and a .340 OBP. Delgado has started hot, but then last season he batted .375/.423/.542 the first six games before falling into a funk and being useless through the end of May.

In addition to keeping Putz healthy, the hard-throwing Parnell - still a work in progress - may become important, given that Feliciano and especially Green have had problems with overwork in recent years. The Mets will simply need to avoid having those guys throw 75+ appearances.

World Champion Philadelphia Phillies

Raw EWSL: 260.50 (87 W)
Adjusted: 261.63 (87 W)
Age-Adj.: 224.46 (75 W)
2009 W-L: 88-74

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	30	Carlos Ruiz#	8	8
1B	29	Ryan Howard	26	24
2B	30	Chase Utley	29	25
SS	30	Jimmy Rollins	26	22
3B	34	Pedro Feliz	10	9
RF	30	Jayson Werth	13	11
CF	28	Shane Victorino	16	16
LF	37	Raul Ibanez	22	15
C2	36	Chris Coste	7	5
INF	31	Eric Bruntlett	4	3
OF	41	Matt Stairs	9	5
12	30	Greg Dobbs	7	6
13	35	Miguel Cairo	4	3
SP1	25	Cole Hamels	15	17
SP2	28	Brett Myers	9	8
SP3	28	Joe Blanton	10	9
SP4	46	Jamie Moyer	11	8
SP5	36	Chan Ho Park	4	3
RP1	32	Brad Lidge	12	9
RP2	31	Chad Durbin	6	5
RP3	28	Ryan Madson	6	6
RP4	33	Clay Condrey	4	3
RP5	33	JC Romero	6	4

Subjective Adjustments: None; as befits a defending World Champion, the Phillies are relying entirely on established players.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Infielder Pablo Ozuna, outfielder Jason Ellison, and John Mayberry jr. Marcus Giles, in camp with the Phillies, did not make the team and appears to be finished.

Pitchers - Relievers Gary Majewski and Scott Eyre; starter Kyle Kendrick is in the minors; also JA Happ and Jack Taschner.

Analysis: The Phillies had to win when they did - this is not yet an old team, and the window of opportunity probably has a good two more years left in it, but there's little room for improvement left, as Hamels is the only player listed here under age 28 (Moyer was 28 in 1991). The Phillies' bullpen was their surprising strength last season; how that holds up will have a lot to do with their ability to repeat as division champs, let alone in the playoffs. As for the rotation, you'd love to have five of Hamels, but beyond him, the question is what kind of pitcher thrives in a bandbox like Citizens Bank. You'd assume that the pinpoint control of Moyer and Blanton has been their success - make the homers solo shots - but actually Hamels walked many fewer batters, whereas Moyer allowed the rotation's fewest longballs - 0.9 per 9 innings, his lowest average in five years and only the second time in the past decade he's allowed fewer than a homer per 9. That seems unlikely to continue; his groundball percentage was up last year, but mostly he allowed far fewer homers per fly ball, some of which is just luck. In fact, among current Phils who have thrown at least 50 innings at Citizens Bank, Moyer has the worst career ERA there:

Pitcher	W	L	IP	ERA	HR9	BB9	K9
Chad Durbin	1	1	53.2	2.01	0.50	3.52	6.37
J.C. Romero	2	2	51.2	2.26	0.52	5.23	8.71
Clay Condrey	9	0	77.0	3.16	0.47	2.10	6.08
Cole Hamels	20	12	259.2	3.29	1.32	2.11	8.15
Brett Myers	27	25	430.0	4.08	1.51	2.60	8.23
Kyle Kendrick	12	5	143.0	4.22	1.32	2.64	4.22
Ryan Madson	19	12	222.1	4.29	1.05	2.67	6.68
Jamie Moyer	16	9	206.2	4.66	1.61	2.53	5.66

Atlanta Braves

Raw EWSL: 196.33 (65 W)
Adjusted: 222.90 (74 W)
Age-Adj.: 208.93 (69 W)
2009 W-L: 82-80

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Brian McCann	18	22
1B	26	Casey Kotchman	12	14
2B	27	Kelly Johnson	16	17
SS	26	Yuniel Escobar#	11	14
3B	37	Chipper Jones	24	15
RF	25	Jeff Francouer	12	14
CF	22	Jordan Schafer+	0	11
LF	37	Garret Anderson	16	11
C2	32	Dave Ross	7	6
INF	27	Omar Infante	7	7
OF	31	Matt Diaz	5	4
12	25	Martin Prado	5	6
13	36	Greg Norton	6	5
SP1	36	Derek Lowe	14	12
SP2	32	Javier Vazquez	13	10
SP3	23	Jair Jurrjens#	6	8
SP4	33	Kenshin Kawakami+	0	4
SP5	43	Tom Glavine	6	4
RP1	31	Mike Gonzalez	4	4
RP2	29	Rafael Soriano	5	5
RP3	24	Eric O'Flaherty#	1	2
RP4	30	Peter Moylan#	4	4
RP5	30	Jorge Campillo*	5	8

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Clint Sammons is the third catcher. Nobody else appears immediately on the horizon, but young players seem to shoot pretty quickly through the Atlanta system to arrive in time to help out the big club in mid-season.

Pitchers - Tim Hudson could be back from Tommy John surgery by August, which would help. Other available arms include Blaine Boyer, JoJo Reyes, Buddy Carlyle, Boone Logan, Jeff Bennett, and Charlie Morton.

Analysis: Speaking of pitchers with diametrically opposite styles, it would be hard to find teammates more specially designed for opposite circumstances than Lowe, Mr. Groundball, and Vazquez, Mr. Flyball. The revamped veteran-heavy rotation was a necessity for the Braves, who have had their starting staff unravel in recent years and don't have young arms ready to carry the load besides Jurrjens.

This isn't exactly a contending team - the Braves aren't a bad team, but they'll need the Mets and Phillies to stumble badly to be a serious player in the race. It's not quite a rebuilding team either - McCann is a young star, Jurrjens could be, Schafer may be in a few years (he's supposed to be a multi-tool type, he's still very young, and I know the Braves have a lot of pitcher's parks in their system, but he's also a career .270/.339/.447 hitter in the minors who's never hit more than 15 homers in a season and hasn't played above AA before); Francouer could still find his way, but he regressed so badly last season he's lucky to have a job at all. Kotchman, Johnson and Escobar are all solid players just hitting their primes, though none have star potential. The Gonzalez-Soriano 1-2 punch in the pen never seems to end up as impressive as it should be, although Gonzalez' bizarre rocking motion does appear to have added an additional level of deception to an effective reliever. Campillo actually had the staff's best K/BB ratio last season and should get an extended look somewhere on the staff.

The third basemen are next up in my annual "Path to Cooperstown" series, and I intend to get a serous look at where Chipper stacks up against the best third basemen of all time, updating this from before the 2001 season, but I'm thinking he may well be in the top five by now, jockeying for position with Brett and Boggs, a bit ahead of Brooks Robinson and Pie Traynor and behind Schmidt and Eddie Mathews.

Florida Marlins

Raw EWSL: 151.50 (51 W)
Adjusted: 174.59 (58 W)
Age-Adj.: 183.67 (61 W)
Subj. Adj.: 187.67 (63 W)
2009 W-L: 75-87

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	John Baker*	5	9
1B	27	Jorge Cantu	11	11
2B	29	Dan Uggla	21	20
SS	25	Hanley Ramirez	29	36
3B	24	Emilio Bonifacio*	1	7
RF	28	Cody Ross	12	13
CF	22	Cameron Maybin+	2	11
LF	25	Jeremy Hermida	12	15
C2	28	Ronny Paulino	7	7
INF	31	Alfredo Amezaga	7	6
OF	26	Brett Carroll+	0	4
12	33	Wes Helms	5	4
13	33	Ross Gload	6	5
SP1	25	Josh Johnson	5	6
SP2	26	Ricky Nolasco	8	8
SP3	25	Anibal Sanchez	2	2
SP4	22	Chris Volstad*	4	8
SP5	24	Andrew Miller#	1	1
RP1	29	Matt Lindstrom#	5	5
RP2	26	Reynel Pinto	3	3
RP3	26	Logan Kensing	3	3
RP4	25	Leo Nunez	4	4
RP5	34	Kiko Calero	2	1

Subjective Adjustments: I added +4 to Bonifacio, who is rated on a fairly small major league sample here but seems to have the third base job in hand.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - 1B Gaby Sanchez is in AAA. Dallas McPherson wins the "what does a guy have to do?" award for being released this spring after keeping his back healthy all year and smashing 42 homers in 448 at bats at AAA (along with a .379 OBP). McPherson's still an injury risk who strikes out a ton, but he's only 28 and has legitimate power, so he figures to catch on somewhere.

Pitchers - Rick VandenHurk, Dan Meyer and Hayden Penn are all hoping to turn things around after falling from grace as starting pitching prospects. Scott Proctor is also in the bullpen.

Analysis: As usual, EWSL is pretty much at a loss in dealing with the Marlins, since "established major leaguer" generally translates into "former Marlin." The rotation is very young and regrouping from injury, a bad combination if you want to try to rely on major league track records. Maybin has tools to burn but is still extremely raw. This looks like a team that will jostle with the Braves for third, but with this much youth on hand, you never know. The Marlins have continued to get more mobile and athletic, which has to help them consolidate the gains in team defense that followed the departure of Miguel Cabrera.

Volstad's ERA was very impressive last season, but 3.8 BB and 5.5 K per 9 are not a good mix; unless he can keep his HR/9 rate down near last season's microscopic 0.3 per 9, he'll have problems, and even then he still needs work on his control. Nolasco's K numbers are much more impressive. Bonifacio has made a lot of early noise, but didn't hit a lick for the Nationals last season and has a career .285/.341/.362 line in the minors. Hermida, of course, continues to disappoint - he's got JD Drew's durability without the same kind of production - but at 25, he is still young enough that we should not be surprised if he takes a huge leap forward at some point.

The perils of not doing previews all at once: sharp-eyed observers will notice that the NL East preview includes two players (Sheffield and Gload) who were also featured in my AL Central preview.

Washington Nationals

Raw EWSL: 164.33 (55 W)
Adjusted: 178.93 (60 W)
Age-Adj.: 177.61 (59 W)
2009 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	24	Jesus Flores#	7	10
1B	30	Nick Johnson	6	5
2B	26	Anderson Hernandez*	2	5
SS	31	Cristian Guzman	12	10
3B	24	Ryan Zimmerman	15	20
RF	29	Austin Kearns	11	10
CF	24	Lastings Milledge	8	11
LF	29	Adam Dunn	20	18
C2	31	Wil Nieves	2	2
INF	34	Ron Belliard	12	11
OF	25	Elijah Dukes#	5	8
12	30	Josh Willingham	15	13
13	31	Willie Harris	8	7
SP1	24	John Lannan*	5	7
SP2	25	Scott Olsen	6	7
SP3	28	Daniel Cabrera	6	6
SP4	22	Shairon Martis+	0	4
SP5	23	Jordan Zimmerman+	0	4
RP1	27	Joel Hanrahan*	4	5
RP2	31	Saul Rivera	6	5
RP3	32	Joe Beimel	7	5
RP4	31	Jesus Colome	3	3
RP5	27	Jason Bergmann	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None. Anderson Hernandez isn't rated on anything like a full season's worth of work, but I remain unconvinced that he can hit enough to play every day, despite his outstanding glovework (he's also on the DL to start the season). Nick Johnson, of course, will be worth a lot more than 5 WS if he's healthy, but that's as big an "if" as there is in the game.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Dmitri Young is still on the DL with a bad back and an uncertain timetable. Catcher Josh Bard and disappointing outfielders Ryan Langerhans and Corey Patterson are at AAA if needed. Wily Mo Pena has been given his walking papers.

Pitchers - Wil Ledezma, Gustavo Chacin, Steven Shell, Mike Hinckley, Julian Tavarez and Matt Chico; Chico is rehabbing from the unbiquitous Tommy John surgery.

Analysis: Hope and Change may be the buzzwords in political Washington, but both are in short supply for the capital's baseball team, which brings to mind words from the financial press these days instead. 14th among the 16 NL teams runs scored in 2008, 15th in runs allowed, just below average in defensive efficiency (and 15th in fielding percentage), 15th in homers, 13th in batting average, 13th in pitcher strikeouts, the Nationals needed to repair everything about their team, and while the addition of Adam Dunn addresses one of those needs - home run power - and there are causes for optimism regarding individual players (Jesus Flores showcased some doubles power early last season before fading in the second half, and Milledge as usual showed flashes), the failure to assemble a starting rotation leaves the Nats perennially in a hole that only a powerhouse offense - which they obviously lack - could get them out of. Importing Cabrera, the poor man's Bobby Witt, is just a symptom of the desperate need for stability. Ryan Zimmerman, of course, has been the biggest disappointment; it's no longer reasonable to project him as a guy who will go head-to-head against David Wright, but they need him to step up and become the team's go-to guy. It also doesn't help that a combination of inconsistency and lunacy has sent Dukes back to the bench yet again, given his talents. 2009 is unlikely to be as grim as 2008, although I suspect that the 72-win estimate above is the high end of what is realistic.

Read More »

Part 3 of my preseason previews is the AL West; this is the third of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold. Prior previews: the AL Central and AL West.

Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)

The Hated Yankees

Raw EWSL: 283.00 (94 W)
Adjusted: 288.43 (96 W)
Age-Adj.: 253.86 (85 W)
2009 W-L: 98-64

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	37	Jorge Posada	15	10
1B	29	Mark Teixeira	26	24
2B	26	Robinson Cano	16	18
SS	35	Derek Jeter	22	16
3B	33	Alex Rodriguez	28	23
RF	30	Xavier Nady	15	13
CF	25	Brett Gardner	2	4
LF	35	Hideki Matsui	11	8
DH	35	Johnny Damon	20	14
C2	32	Jose Molina	7	6
INF	33	Cody Ransom	2	2
OF	28	Nick Swisher	15	16
13	24	Melky Cabrera	9	11
SP1	28	CC Sabathia	22	22
SP2	32	AJ Burnett	12	9
SP3	29	Chien-Ming Wang	11	10
SP4	37	Andy Pettitte	11	10
SP5	23	Joba Chamberlain#	7	9
RP1	39	Mariano Rivera	17	15
RP2	34	Damaso Marte	5	4
RP3	28	Edwar Ramirez#	3	3
RP4	28	Jose Veras*	3	5
RP5	27	Brian Bruney	4	4

Subjective Adjustments: None; I had considered downgrading A-Rod for his injury, but the age adjustment hacks off 5 Win Shares, and that's probably a built-in adjustment for the scope of the injury (assuming A-Rod is something like the old A-Rod when he returns; if he's not, things will get ugly in a hurry).

The Yankees get a boost for having two outfielders on the bench (Swisher and Melky) who are rated largely on the basis of regular playing time, but that just offsets Gardner and Matsui, who are not.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - The Yankees' bench is stronger than it has been in some time, but the next level down is still pretty sad; other than Shelley Duncan, the people immediately on hand are non-hitting catcher Kevin Cash and Royals castoff Angel Berroa. 22-year-old OF prospect Austin Jackson appears to be a year away from being ready to help at the big league level.

Pitchers - Here, there is more depth. Phil Hughes will likely step in if one of the rotation starters gets hurt (a pretty good bet with the likes of Burnett and Joba), and there's also Brett Tomko, Ian Kennedy and Kei Igawa, although the latter two are in very bad odor. Also relievers Jonathan Abadejo, Phil Coke and Alfredo Aceves. Darrell Rasner signed with a team in Japan.

Analysis: The Yankees seem more vulnerable offensively than they have in years, with the injury to A-Rod and Father Time chasing down Jeter, Posada, Damon and Matsui. But EWSL says they are still the team to beat in this division, thanks very largely to the acquisitions of Teixeira and Sabathia (see here if you missed my look back at the Yankee's pitching acquisitions of the last 35 years). I'm not sure I'd go that far, but this team has excellent starting pitching, few holes and a fair amount of redundancy built in; they're going to be formidable.

This is (other than Wang) a very high-strikeout staff, maybe even one that could challenge the 2001 Yankees' AL record for strikeouts (1266). Andy Pettitte, at 7 K/9, was above his career average last season and higher than in any of the Yankees' championship seasons, and Sabathia, Burnett and Joba combined to strike out 600 batters in 574.2 innings last season, 9.4 per 9 innings. Of course, they will still need defense. The Yankees, as so often has been the case in the past decade (and in contrast to days of yore) were third from the bottom of the AL in defensive efficiency. With many of the same fielders returning, aside from a distinct upgrade at first, the pressure will be on the light-hitting speedster Brett Gardner (the poor man's Jacoby Ellsbury) to provide a boost with the glove. Gardner is a kind of light, fast player the Yankees haven't had much lately - Derek Jeter in 2006 is the only Yankee in the last five years to steal 30 bases in a season; Chuck Knoblauch in 2001 and Tony Womack in 2005 are the only Yankees since 1995 to steal 20 or more bases without hitting double figures in home runs.

Somehow, though, the story of the Yankees' year seems destined to be Alex Rodriguez. Your guess of how he will perform when he returns is as good as mine. With Cody Ransom handling third base in his absence, the pressure will mount daily to get A-Rod's bat back in the lineup no matter how unpopular he is.

Boston Red Sox

Raw EWSL: 258.00 (86 W)
Adjusted: 274.51 (92 W)
Age-Adj.: 252.87 (84 W)
2009 W-L: 97-65

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	37	Jason Varitek	10	6
1B	30	Kevin Youkilis	24	21
2B	25	Dustin Pedroia#	19	28
SS	33	Julio Lugo	7	6
3B	35	Mike Lowell	16	11
RF	33	JD Drew	15	13
CF	25	Jacoby Ellsbury#	10	15
LF	30	Jason Bay	20	17
DH	33	David Ortiz	21	18
C2	26	George Kottaras+	0	4
INF	25	Jed Lowrie*	4	9
OF	27	Rocco Baldelli	4	4
13	33	Mark Kotsay	7	6
SP1	29	Josh Beckett	13	12
SP2	28	Daisuke Matsuzaka#	12	14
SP3	25	Jon Lester	11	12
SP4	42	Tim Wakefield	10	7
SP5	31	Brad Penny	9	7
RP1	28	Jon Papelbon	16	15
RP2	33	Hideki Okajima#	8	6
RP3	27	Manny Delcarmen	6	6
RP4	39	Takashi Saito	13	12
RP5	31	Javier Lopez	5	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Infielder Nick Green, and outfielders Cris Carter, Paul McAnulty and Chip Ambres. The Brad Wilkerson experiment seems to have run its course; Wilkerson was once a multi-tool player, but too many disappointing seasons have left him at what looks like the end of the line at 32.

Pitchers - The Red Sox have an embarrassment of pitching riches, even taking account of the traditional baseball maxim that you can never have too much pitching, and if you do you'll end up needing it all. I didn't even have room to list reliever Ramon Ramirez, the bounty of the Coco Crisp deal who had an outstanding year for the Royals last season, or Justin Masterson. The Sox hope to get John Smoltz to return around June, and presumably they'll make room for him somewhere. Clay Buchholz was a hotter property than Lester this time last year; Buchholz had a 2.52 ERA this spring (0.46 until his last spring outing), he struck out 8.5 men per 9 last season and had a 2.47 ERA while striking out a batter per inning at Pawtucket last season; none of that was enough to avoid getting sent back to AAA this year, but for a 24-year-old pitcher with his credentials and stuff, 76 innings of poor control and too many longballs last season should not be enough to give up on him as a prospect.

Analysis: The Sawx remain a deep team with few real holes and lots of pitching depth, albeit without a proven front-line regular-season ace (yes, I know about Lester's and Matsuzaka's big years last season and Beckett's 2007 and postseason glories). The offense should be OK as long as Jason Bay doesn't revert to 2007 form, even assuming some return to earth from Pedroia, but the man in the spotlight will be David Ortiz. Ortiz remained productive last season, but 2007's falloff in homers amid an otherwise outstanding season followed by 2008's distinctly declining production for a guy who - while better-conditioned - has the build of a Mo Vaughn or a George Scott raises the question of whether he'll be following a similar mid-30s fade or whether last year was just the kind of off year that signals a guy moving out of his prime but not necessarily sledding straight downhill.

Baldelli should get his chance to seize the fourth outfielder role before Kotsay returns from injury.

Tampa Bay Rays

Raw EWSL: 210.33 (70 W)
Adjusted: 238.52 (80 W)
Age-Adj.: 244.84 (82 W)
2008 W-L: 95-67

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Dioner Navarro	11	14
1B	31	Carlos Pena	20	17
2B	30	Akinori Iwamura#	15	16
SS	29	Jason Bartlett	15	14
3B	23	Evan Longoria*	10	24
RF	29	Gabe Gross	8	7
CF	24	BJ Upton	19	25
LF	27	Carl Crawford	16	16
DH	32	Pat Burrell	19	16
C2	28	Shawn Riggans*	2	4
INF	26	Willy Aybar	4	5
OF	24	Matt Joyce*	3	8
13	28	Ben Zobrist	5	5
SP1	25	Scott Kazmir	13	14
SP2	27	James Shields	13	12
SP3	25	Matt Garza	8	8
SP4	26	Andy Sonnanstine#	6	8
SP5	23	David Price	1	4
RP1	39	Troy Percival	4	4
RP2	31	Dan Wheeler	9	8
RP3	26	JP Howell	6	6
RP4	31	Grant Balfour	6	5
RP5	26	Jeff Niemann+	0	6

Subjective Adjustments: None; I could rate Niemann as a starter and Price as a reliever, but it doesn't really matter. Niemann will open as the fifth starter following Jason Hammel's trade to Colorado, but Price will be in the rotation pretty quickly, I have to assume, and the Rays don't seem shy about sending Niemann to the pen.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Gabe Kapler in the outfield and Adam Kennedy in the infield provide insurance. SS prospect Reid Brignac is on hand, but will be pressed to make his move quickly on Bartlett by the specter of Tim Beckham, the last first pick in the draft the Rays are likely to have for a while. Outfielder Fernando Perez is out three months with a dislocated wrist. Morgan Ensberg was in camp but was cut.

Pitchers - Reliever Joe Nelson, who had a great year for the Marlins last season and veteran relievers Jason Isringhausen, Chad Bradford, Brian Shouse and Lance Cormier provide depth.

Analysis: EWSL rates the Rays pretty highly when you factor in all the adjustments, but it's unsurprising that any rating based on established major league performance still shows they have to prove last year wasn't a fluke compared to the twin titans of this division. Of course, at the end of the day, it's unlikely that there will be three 95-win teams in the East no matter how solid they are; one of them will have to give.

I scoffed last season at Baseball Prospectus' projection that the Rays would cut their runs allowed from 944 to 713 in a single year, being unable to find any precedent for such an enormous percentage reduction in runs allowed by a single team in a single year and operating on the assumption that you never predict something that's never happened before. A year later, I still have yet to do a systematic study but I've also yet to locate another team with such a dramatic reduction - yet the Rays allowed 671 runs, accounting for almost the entirety of their improved record. As I've detailed on several occasions, that improvement was partly the young pitching but overwhelmingly the defense. There being really no precedent for this sort of thing, I remain guarded and skeptical at best about whether they can avoid a natural letdown from such a drastic leap forward in defense in a single season.

If you are looking for a sleeper on this suddenly under-the-microscope team, it would be Matt Joyce, who slugged .492 with the Tigers last season before being dealt for Edwin Jackson. Joyce may even get an audition in center when Upton's unavailable.

Toronto Blue Jays

Raw EWSL: 186.50 (62 W)
Adjusted: 211.64 (71 W)
Age-Adj.: 190.57 (64 W)
2009 W-L: 76-86

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	33	Rod Barajas	7	6
1B	32	Lyle Overbay	12	10
2B	27	Aaron Hill	12	12
SS	33	Marco Scutaro	12	10
3B	34	Scott Rolen	13	11
RF	28	Alex Rios	20	21
CF	30	Vernon Wells	17	14
LF	25	Adam Lind#	6	9
DH	21	Travis Snider+	2	11
C2	32	Michael Barrett	4	3
INF	34	John McDonald	4	3
OF	37	Kevin Millar	11	7
13	28	Jose Bautista	10	10
SP1	32	Roy Halladay	20	15
SP2	24	Jesse Litsch#	8	11
SP3	27	David Purcey*	1	1
SP4	24	Rickey Romero+	0	4
SP5	29	Scott Richmond+	1	4
RP1	33	BJ Ryan	8	6
RP2	33	Scott Downs	9	6
RP3	28	Jesse Carlson*	5	9
RP4	31	Brian Tallet	5	4
RP5	26	Brandon League	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Joe Inglett and Russ Adams in the infield, Buck Coats in the outfield and catching prospect Curtis Thigpen.

Pitchers - Dustin McGowan may or may not be out for the season; Shawn Marcum likely is. Others on hand include relievers Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp, as well as TJ Beam, Brad Mills, Brian Burres (a year removed from his unfortunate tenure in the Baltimore rotation), Casey Janssen, and Brett Cecil.

Analysis: Sometimes, a team that underachieves its Pythagorean projection is a candidate for a leap forward the next season on the grounds that bad luck evens out, but sometimes, as with the Jays (who fell 7 games under theirs last season), it's just a missed opportunity. The injuries to McGowan and Marcum and the departure of Burnett have left a shell-shocked remnant of the AL's best pitching staff last season (hey, you could look it up). Litsch, with a career average of 4.7 K/9, seems an unreliable second starter, and things get scarier after that (Purcey's an excellent prospect but as yet unproven). And beyond Lind and Snider, both unproven as well, there isn't a lot of future in their current lineup - Rios and Hill and in their primes, and the rest are 30 and up. Not that you'd be looking to dump a guy like Rios, but at this point he doesn't look like much to build a championship team around.

Baltimore Orioles

Raw EWSL: 160.50 (54 W)
Adjusted: 192.43 (64 W)
Age-Adj.: 175.94 (59 W)
2008 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	23	Matt Wieters+	0	11
1B	32	Aubrey Huff	16	13
2B	31	Brian Roberts	20	16
SS	29	Cesar Izturis	7	6
3B	37	Melvin Mora	15	10
RF	25	Nick Markakis	20	25
CF	23	Adam Jones*	5	12
LF	24	Felix Pie#	3	4
DH	31	Luke Scott	11	9
C2	38	Gregg Zaun	8	6
INF	31	Ty Wigginton	13	11
OF	33	Ryan Freel	5	4
13	34	Chad Moeller	2	1
SP1	30	Jeremy Guthrie#	11	11
SP2	34	Koji Uehara	0	4
SP3	31	Adam Eaton	2	2
SP4	35	Mark Hendrickson	4	3
SP5	28	Alfredo Simon	0	4
RP1	32	George Sherrill	7	5
RP2	27	Chris Ray	4	4
RP3	26	Jim Johnson*	4	9
RP4	28	Dennis Sarfate*	3	4
RP5	37	Jamie Walker	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Newly-acquired infielder Robert Andino, catcher Robby Hammock, Luis Montanez and Donnie Murphy.

Pitchers - Rich Hill, who has fallen incredibly far in such a short time but will probably get another crack at a rotation gig once he's healthy, Danys Baez, Matt Albers and Radhames Liz.

Analysis: Another grim year in Baltimore, and like Toronto, while the Orioles don't look like they have a 100-loss kind of lineup, their weaknesses - especially a pitching staff that may rival the Rangers for the league's worst when you adjust for the park - will be brutally exposed playing New York, Boston and Tampa all year.

That said, there is some hope here - once Wieters gets promoted, you really do have a core of very young and at least possibly very good players in Wieters, Markakis, Jones and Pie (the latter two being crapshoots at this stage, but young and gifted enough to be worth hoping on). Hopefully for O's fans, they won't fall into delusions of adequacy again if the rotation opens with a few good weeks.

Read More »

Part 2 of my preseason previews is the AL West; this is the second of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold. Prior preview: the AL Central.

Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)

The Angels

Raw EWSL: 251.17 (84 W)
Adjusted: 259.00 (86 W)
Age-Adj.: 231.51 (77 W)
2009 W-L: 90-72

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	27	Mike Napoli	10	11
1B	26	Kendry Morales	1	1
2B	25	Howie Kendrick	12	14
SS	25	Erick Aybar#	8	12
3B	31	Chone Figgins	16	13
RF	34	Vladimir Guerrero	25	17
CF	33	Torii Hunter	21	17
LF	35	Bobby Abreu	22	15
DH	30	Juan Rivera	5	5
C2	26	Jeff Mathis	4	5
INF	28	Macier Izturis	13	13
OF	34	Gary Matthews	12	10
13	28	Reggie Willits#	5	6
SP1	30	John Lackey	16	14
SP2	26	Jered Weaver	12	13
SP3	28	Joe Saunders	12	12
SP4	33	Kelvim Escobar	8	6
SP5	26	Ervin Santana	13	13
RP1	33	Brian Fuentes	11	8
RP2	25	Jose Arredondo*	6	12
RP3	33	Scot Shields	9	6
RP4	35	Justin Speier	4	3
RP5	38	Darren Oliver	7	6

Subjective Adjustments: None. Once again, there's nothing so off in the AL West I felt compelled to repair it. As usual, where some individual players came in lower than their projected playing time would suggest (here, Kendry Morales) the team also had guys sitting the bench who are rated on more playing time than they'll get (Matthews, Izturis), and rather than over-project Morales beyond what he's proven he can do, I'll just say "show me."

Also on Hand: Position players - 1B/3B Robb Quinlan and SS/3B Brandon Wood are the main non-pitchers, and Quinlan may actually stand to pick up some time if Morales isn't up to everyday productivity; with the flexibility of Figgins and Izturis, they give the Halos a lot of possible combinations.

Pitchers - Starters Dustin Moseley and Nick Adenhart are the likely fill-ins, and Jason Bulger and Shane Loux in the pen. Adenhart's minor league control numbers aren't as ghastly as his 13 walks in 12 innings last year with the Angels, but they're not good; Mosely had a 6.94 ERA at AAA to go with 6.79 in the AL, so while he throws strikes he's not fooling anyone. Bulger, by contrast, was just staggeringly dominant at Salt Lake, striking out - this is not a misprint - 75 batters in 43 innings (15.7 per 9) with an 0.63 ERA, and whiffing another 20 in 16 IP in the majors, albeit with even poorer control. Bulger, Loux and Moseley are all out of options.

The Salt Lake team, by the way, played .580 ball and won the Pacific Coast League.

Analysis: The Angels last season passed over the line from dominance to hegemony in the AL West, and nothing suggests that they are likely to surrender the crown this season even if Oakland returns to the neighborhood of the pennant race. With the departure of Mark Teixeira, K-Rod, Jon Garland and Garret Anderson, the Angels probably lost more free agent talent than anybody this offseason, yet they will probably end up with a slight upgrade by signing Bobby Abreu to replace Anderson (Abreu's a much better player, but he's also turning 35, a dangerous age for a guy who has already lost most of his power), they signed an adequate closer in Brian Fuentes, Garland will be replaced by the returning Escobar, and of course Tex was only here for half a season (he'll be replaced internally, by Morales). Despite that, the Angels are the picture of stability in a division of upheaval, with essentially everyone but Abreu and Fuentes a familiar face.

The main risk, of course, is the health of the starting pitching - Lackey, Escobar and Santana are all varying degrees of banged up at this stage - as well as whether Joe Saunders can avoid falling too far off from last season's career year. Really only the rotation could possibly give this division away. The team, as Angels teams this decade have tended to be, is about an ideal age mix, with an aging but not over the hill outfield and back of the bullpen mixed with a bevy of early/prime age players in the infield and rotation and at catcher.

Life, they say, is what happens while you're busy making other plans, and that's been the story of Juan Rivera's career and to some extent Escobar's and Weaver's as well - it's about time to start looking at them as the players they are, not who they might once have seemed likely to become. Morales and Wood are high on the list of guys who are running out of time to avoid the same fate. Morales now has a career line of .332/.373/.528 in the minors, most of it at AAA (albeit at high-altitude Salt Lake City), but just .249/.302/.408 in 407 big-league plate appearances. Wood's just 24, but he's smacked 128 homers the last four seasons (6 of them in the majors); while he flopped with the Angels last season, he also cut his strikeout rate at AAA. He needs a position; he seems to be regarded as a question mark at short, but his error rates in the minors at 3B are alarming.

Vlad Guerrero is and remains a great player, but his whole career trajectory has to be re-evaluated a bit since we found out he's a year older than he claimed.

Oakland A's

Raw EWSL: 172.50 (58 W)
Adjusted: 202.41 (67 W)
Age-Adj.: 195.44 (65 W)
2009 W-L: 78-84

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Kurt Suzuki*	11	16
1B	38	Jason Giambi	13	9
2B	32	Mark Ellis	16	13
SS	34	Orlando Cabrera	21	18
3B	31	Eric Chavez	6	5
RF	25	Travis Buck#	6	9
CF	24	Ryan Sweeney*	6	16
LF	29	Matt Holliday	23	21
DH	30	Jack Cust	15	13
C2	27	Landon Powell+	0	4
INF	29	Bobby Crosby	8	7
OF	28	Rajai Davis#	4	5
13	23	Daric Barton*	6	12
SP1	31	Justin Duchscherer	9	7
SP2	25	Dana Eveland	4	4
SP3	23	Sean Gallagher*	1	2
SP4	23	Gio Gonzalez*	0	0
SP5	25	Dallas Braden	2	3
RP1	25	Joey Devine*	5	10
RP2	29	Brad Ziegler*	6	11
RP3	29	Santiago Casilla#	3	3
RP4	40	Russ Springer	7	5
RP5	30	Michael Wuertz	4	4

Subjective Adjustments: None. Barton, however, will struggle to get the playing time to meet his EWSL.

Also on Hand: Position players - Nomar Garciaparra is the biggest name, and will slot in wherever an extra hand is needed, especially if Chavez can't stay healthy; Jack Hannahan is still around, but was awful last year and likely not Oakland's next choice at third after Chavez (Barton is no longer considered a third baseman). Outfielder Chris Denorfia is around as well, and outfielders Eric Patterson and Aaron Cunningham behind him. Pitchers - Hot prospects Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson have been competing for rotation slots along with Josh Outman, and it now appears that Cahill will start the season's second game, with Duchscherer on the shelf with elbow surgery and Gonzalez having a rough spring. I rated them on the incumbents anyway, but it doesn't alter the numbers much. Jerry Blevins will be in the bullpen, and Andrew Brown is also on hand; both had ERAs in the low 3s last year.

Analysis: The A's perennially get more Win Shares from players I don't include in the preseason EWSL charts than almost anybody, and I have no doubt - especially if you look at the list above - that will happen again this year, and you can probably consider this closer to an 85-win than a 78-win roster. Of course, their young rotation could have substantial up- or down-side, especially a volatile power arm like Gonzalez or the highly touted Cahill and Anderson (although Gallagher may be the best bet for a step forward of the group). They'll probably end the season with a team more comparable to the Angels than they are on Opening Day, but even with the addition of Holliday's bat and Cabrera's glove, it will take quite a lot for this team to actually haul down the 24 1/2 game gap that separated them from the Angels last season.

Devine is seeing the dreaded Dr. Andrews, apparently leaving Ziegler to close (backed up by Casilla, who had a tough 2008). I believe Dr. Andrews gives a volume discount on former Braves pitchers.

Barton is hoping to avoid becoming the next Dan Johnson (the original finally gave up and signed to play in Japan); he'll probably be traded if he gets playing time and hits. Like Johnson, his timing is awful, as he's currently nursing a quad strain just when he was having a hot spring.

Fun fact from the Bill James goldmine: Duchscherer, the heir to Steve Karsay and Steve Ontiveros, narrowly missed having a 1-2-3 inning in half his innings last season.

Seattle Mariners

Raw EWSL: 173.00 (58 W)
Adjusted: 179.40 (60 W)
Age-Adj.: 164.92 (55 W)
2009 W-L: 68-94

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	33	Kenji Johjima	13	11
1B	33	Russ Branyan	5	4
2B	25	Jose Lopez	15	18
SS	27	Yuniesky Betancourt	13	13
3B	30	Adrian Beltre	15	13
RF	35	Ichiro Suzuki	25	17
CF	26	Franklin Gutierrez	5	5
LF	39	Ken Griffey jr	14	11
DH	29	Chris Shelton	2	2
C2	25	Jeff Clement*	2	4
INF	26	Ronny Cedeno	4	4
OF	31	Endy Chavez	5	4
13	27	Mike Morse	1	1
SP1	23	Felix Hernandez	13	13
SP2	30	Erik Bedard	11	9
SP3	26	Ryan Rowland-Smith#	5	7
SP4	34	Jarrod Washburn	7	5
SP5	30	Carlos Silva	4	3
RP1	24	Brendan Morrow#	5	7
RP2	27	Chad Cordero	5	5
RP3	26	Mark Lowe	1	1
RP4	29	Roy Corcoran*	4	6
RP5	27	Randy Messenger	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - 35-year-old Mike Sweeney has torn the cover off the ball this spring, and Don Wakamatsu speaks warmly of having him on the team, which seems to give him the inside track for the DH or platoon DH job, but Shelton's had an even better spring and I expect his relative youth and durability to win out sooner or later. Outfielder Wlademier Balentien, who was just lost last season at the plate, is the other guy likely to get significant playing time, as may Chris Burke, just picked up from Houston. Shortstop prospect Matt Tuiasasopo is also on hand, as is outfielder Mike Wilson, and Jamie Burke may yet reclaim the backup catcher slot.

Pitchers - Relievers Miguel Batista, David Aardsma and Sean White (Tyler Walker has been cut) as well as Jason Vargas, Garrett Olson and Cesar Jimenez.

Analysis: The Mariners have rid themselves of a lot of deadwood - admitting you have a problem is the first step - but there's not that much here to really build on as a long-term foundation besides King Felix and maybe Lopez, and Lopez is too free-swinging to be a star. In the short run, they're making do with cheap spare parts like Branyan, Shelton, Sweeney and the Ken Griffey nostalgia tour. They may yet have a dominant front end of the rotation with Hernandez and Bedard, but that didn't work out last season.

The Mariners' closer job has been an ongoing soap opera. Cordero should get a crack at the job, but he may not pitch before June, so in the interim they are going with just-now-converted starter Brandon Morrow, but Morrow may not be adjusted to close by Opening Day, so in the interim it could be Lowe, except that he's had the stuffings beaten out of him this spring. At one point, they were actually looking at Batista. Safeco will probably help the bullpen hang together, and there's a lot of guys there who can pitch a little, just no ace.

The defense, next to last (above Texas) in defensive efficiency last season, may be another story. The infield is basically the same aside from 1B. The M's have four center fielders, sort of, with Ichiro, Griffey, Endy and Gutierrez, so Gutierrez better be careful calling for balls, but of course Griffey doesn't move especially well anymore and may DH as much as he plays left.

Ichiro has been taking some rest after feeling light-headed, which is hopefully just jet lag. It's hard to believe that Ichiro's only four years younger than Griffey, having arrived in Seattle 12 years later and representing a different era of baseball in Seattle.

Clement has been talked about as a possibility as DH or starting catcher ahead of Johjima, but he was sent back to AAA for now amidst concern about his glove.

Texas Rangers
Raw EWSL: 158.00 (53 W)
Adjusted: 171.10 (57 W)
Age-Adj.: 162.51 (54 W)
2009 W-L: 67-95

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	24	Jarrod Saltalamacchia#	5	7
1B	23	Chris Davis*	4	10
2B	27	Ian Kinsler	20	21
SS	20	Elvis Andrus+	0	11
3B	32	Michael Young	22	18
RF	28	Nelson Cruz	5	5
CF	28	Josh Hamilton#	17	21
LF	27	David Murphy#	7	9
DH	28	Hank Blalock	8	8
C2	25	Taylor Teagarden+	2	4
INF	35	Frank Catalanotto	7	5
OF	32	Andruw Jones	10	8
13	31	Marlon Byrd	11	9
SP1	34	Kevin Millwood	7	5
SP2	31	Vicente Padilla	7	6
SP3	26	Scott Feldman	3	3
SP4	25	Brandon McCarthy	2	3
SP5	23	Matt Harrison*	2	3
RP1	29	Frank Francisco	4	4
RP2	28	CJ Wilson	5	4
RP3	38	Eddie Guardado	4	3
RP4	31	Derrick Turnbow	2	2
RP5	27	Kason Gabbard	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but I am sorely tempted to downgrade Andrus, as discussed below.

Also on Hand: Position players - Slugging catching prospect Max Ramirez would garner more attention in another organization, but with Saltalamacchia and Teagarden on hand, there's a surplus of potential and a deficit of proven production at the position. With all Texas' needs, you have to figure at least one of them will be dealt by the deadline. Brandon Boggs is on hand in the outfield, Omar Vizquel, Joaquin Arias and German Duran are all poised to step in if Andrus fails.

Pitchers - The usual cast of thousands - high-ceiling prospect Neftali Feliz, and veterans Kris Benson, Joaquin Benoit (out with rotator cuff surgery), Jason Jennings, Dustin Nippert, Josh Rupe, and Warner Madrigal.

Analysis: The story of the Rangers, as always, starts and ends not with the AL's top-scoring offense in 2008 but with their appalling starting pitching, the reason they will be fighting the Mariners to stay out of the cellar. No help appears immediately on the way, although Feliz could be in the rotation later this year. The bullpen is more adequate, but nothing special. The Rangers were 14th of 14 teams last year in ERA and defensive efficiency, 13th in Ks, 12th in homers, 11th in walks; you can't blame all that on the park or the defense. Although, clearly some help would help: the average AL pitcher last season allowed 1.00 HR, 3.32 BB and 6.64 K/9; Kevin Millwood's averages were 0.96 HR, 2.61 BB and 6.67 K - better than average on all counts - but whereas the average AL pitcher gave up 9.19 hits per 9, Millwood allowed 11.74. Ouch.

Key to the defensive improvement will be Andrus, who has drawn raves for his glove this spring. Assuming the Rangers are committed to him, Andrus may be a decent fantasy baseball bet: he steals bases (94 in 244 games the last two seasons), plays short and plays in Texas. But realistically, I'll be shocked if he has an OPS+ above 80: the guy's 20 years old and slugged .367 in the Texas League last season. John Sickels notes that he's considered a good hitting prospect given his age, but that doesn't mean he's ready. And his defensive range better be good, because Andrus has averaged 45 errors per 162 games in the minor leagues. Rangers fans will need to be patient when he steps on his own blue suede shoes.

Saltalamacchia - the man who broke the box score - hasn't really repeated his stellar 2005 as a 20-year-old in A ball, raising memories of catching prospects like Javier Valentin and Robert Fick who just had a great year in the minors they could never live up to. With Teagarden and Ramirez on his heels, he'll have a short leash.

Davis, I'm a little leery of - yeah, great half-season run in the Kevin Maas style, but over his major and minor league careers he's averaged 47 walks and 172 K per 162 games to go with his averages of 42 HR and 44 doubles. The power is real, but so is Marcus Thames' (if we are still speaking of ex-Braves).

Frank Catalanotto, the king of the hot streak, has been a survivor and exceeded expectations many times before, but given his dependence on his batting average and dwindling defensive flexibility, he strikes me as exactly the kind of 35 year old who isn't on anybody's roster at 36.

Read More »

This year, I'm starting my preseason previews with the AL Central; this is the first of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold.

Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)

Minnesota Twins

Raw EWSL: 200.50 (67 W)
Adjusted: 228.28 (76 W)
Age-Adj.: 233.23 (78 W)
Subjective Adj.: 233.23 (78 W)
2009 W-L: 91-71

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Joe Mauer	27	31
1B	28	Justin Morneau	24	25
2B	24	Alexi Casilla#	5	7
SS	31	Nick Punto	9	7
3B	31	Joe Crede	10	8
RF	30	Michael Cuddyer	13	11
CF	23	Carlos Gomez#	7	11
LF	23	Delmon Young*	13	19
DH	27	Jason Kubel	10	11
C2	38	Mike Redmond	6	4
INF	28	Brendan Harris#	10	12
OF	25	Denard Span*	8	20
13	25	Jason Pridie	0	4
SP1	25	Francisco Liriano	5	5
SP2	25	Kevin Slowey#	6	8
SP3	27	Scott Baker	9	9
SP4	27	Nick Blackburn*	5	10
SP5	26	Glen Perkins#	4	5
RP1	34	Joe Nathan	17	11
RP2	27	Jesse Crain	4	3
RP3	30	Matt Guerrier	5	4
RP4	28	Craig Breslow*	3	6
RP5	31	Boof Bonser	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None - I'm trying to be stingy with those - but clearly, 20 Win Shares from Denard Span and his sloppy pants is very aggressive for a guy who entered 2008 having never slugged higher than .369 in any stop in the minor leagues and appears to be starting the season without a fixed position in the outfield, although he's expected to end up with semi-regular playing time. That said, I'm not going to adjust downward a guy who only appeared in 93 games last year; he can lose a fair bit of productivity and make up for it with increased playing time.

Also on Hand: Position players - Infielders Brian Buscher and Matt Tolbert; Buscher was basically the everyday 3B for part of last season, and may yet get decent playing time if Crede's back gives out again.

Pitchers - Relievers R.A. Dickey, Luis Ayala, and Jose Mijares, and starters Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey, both fruits of the Santana trade. Pat Neshek, so valuable the last few years, is out for the season with Tommy John surgery.

Analysis: As referenced in the comment above about Span, Ron Gardenhire's approach to playing time is a fluid one, and that's reflected in the distribution of Win Shares (and other statistical markers) among the Twins' non-pitchers. It may affect the catching corps as well: Joe Mauer is banged up already with a lower back strain, which is the kind of thing that can start the process of eating into his productivity around the edges even if he's only on the shelf for a few days. Redmond should start in his absence, although the Twins seem to be toying with Kubel behind the plate. It's premature to be overly worried about what could just be a week or two of early season stiffness, but with catchers you never know; it would be a shame if it ended up that Mauer, who should have been the AL MVP last season, had more of his best years already behind than ahead of him. (If you missed my look at the all-time great catchers, Part II of that series noted that Mauer has just a tremendous record by historical standards in throwing out base thieves).

The Twins' dependence on Mauer and the 34-year-old Nathan (along with Morneau, but as a 28-year-old slugging first baseman Morneau is as close to a sure thing as exists in the uncertain world of baseball) is a risk factor, but the major area for upside for the Twinkies - as well as the sort of downside that sends teams unexpectedly to the cellar - is their just-hitting-their-primes starting rotation. I think it's highly likely the rotation as a whole delivers more Win Shares than what's set out above; only Blackburn is really rated here as if he's a successful full-season starter. Liriano would surprise nobody if he won the Cy Young Award, ERA and/or strikeout titles this season, but his career high in innings is 167.2 as a minor leaguer and 121 in the major leagues - he needs to establish himself as capable of carrying the workload of a #1 starter. Then there's Slowey, who in his last 19 starts last season was 10-5 with a 3.24 ERA and averaged 1.0 HR, 1.3 walks and 7.2 K per 9 innings. If he can keep going at that rate, he too will be a top-of-the-line starter. Baker also has solid peripheral numbers, though he has struggled badly this spring. Blackburn, by contrast, has never struck out 100 batters at any level, so I'm skeptical of his viability going forward (ask Brian Bannister how that works out). On the whole, I think I'd much rather enter the season with this team than any other in the division, and EWSL appropriately rates them as the handy favorites.

On the everyday side, Gomez and Casilla should be an interesting bet for steals in fantasy baseball, but their value in the real world remains speculative (Bill James notes that Gomez laid down a MLB-high 66 bunts last year; Casilla at 37 was fourth). Delmon Young improved at the margins in a bunch of areas last year - upped his steals a bit, cut his GIDP a bit, cut his K/unintentional walk rate from 5.25 to 1 to 3.75 to 1 - and it's not that unusual for a very young hitter to follow an stagnate-then-explode growth pattern rather than steady improvement every season. That said, the drop in his doubles rate reduces some of the grounds for optimism about a big power breakout, while his dismal glovework raised the more immediate, short-term questions about whether he is helping the team while they wait for him to make the leap forward (the Baseball Prospectus article on the Twins argued that Young should be dealt, given that the Twins are contenders).

Cleveland Indians

Raw EWSL: 210.33 (70 W)
Adjusted: 225.56 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 220.62 (74 W)
2009 W-L: 86-76

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	30	Victor Martinez	16	14
1B	28	Ryan Garko	13	13
2B	23	Asdrubal Cabrera#	8	13
SS	27	Jhonny Peralta	19	20
3B	34	Mark DeRosa	19	16
RF	26	Shin-Soo Choo	9	10
CF	26	Grady Sizemore	27	30
LF	27	Ben Francisco*	5	9
DH	32	Travis Hafner	10	8
C2	29	Kelly Shoppach	10	9
INF	34	Jamey Carroll	9	8
OF	35	David Dellucci	5	3
13	23	Luis Valbuena+	1	4
SP1	30	Cliff Lee	14	12
SP2	25	Fausto Carmona	9	10
SP3	27	Anthony Reyes	3	3
SP4	25	Scott Lewis+	2	4
SP5	24	Aaron Laffey#	3	4
RP1	32	Kerry Wood	7	5
RP2	25	Jensen Lewis#	4	6
RP3	27	Rafael Perez#	7	8
RP4	34	Rafael Betancourt	8	5
RP5	25	Joe Smith#	4	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Josh Barfield and Andy Marte, both of whom will probably get only one more chance to reclaim their status as potential everyday players; speedy 25-year-old outfielder Trevor Crowe, who is trying to catch on as a utilityman; slugging OF prospect Matt LaPorta, received in the Sabathia deal; 24-year-old 3B prospect Wes Hodges. Pitchers - Jake Westbrook, who may be back around midseason after Tommy John and hip surgeries; Carl Pavano; top prospect Adam Miller; Matt Herges; Japanese import and onetime Japan League ace closer Masahide Kobayashi, who was largely a flop last season despite a respectable 2.5-to-1 K/BB ratio (he had trouble with the longball); and Juan Salas.

Analysis: When you get past the shattered hopes of 2008 and the residue that remains (e.g., the ghost of Travis Hafner), there's actually some grounds for optimism in Cleveland. This remains a division for the taking if Minnesota's rotation unravels, and like the Twins, the Indians have some young pitchers with upside, like Scott Lewis and Reyes, as well as guys like Carmona and the two Rafaels who could bounce back from last season (granted, Cliff Lee's not going to repeat 2008). The Indians have announced Pavano, Scott Lewis, and Reyes in their rotation and sent down Laffey and Jeremy Sowers, but there's nothing less reliable in this world than Carl Pavano, so I rated them on the assumption that Laffey, the lesser of those two evils, will have to step in soon enough; Pavano would rate at essentially zero. If the Indians' training staff can keep both Pavano and Kerry Wood healthy all season, they should get a Nobel Prize or something.

Choo is penciled in for now in the Indians' plans, but he's 27 and owes the South Korean government two years of compulsory military service before age 30, and awaits word on whether he can get an exemption. There are not the greatest of outfield options at the big league level if he has to go serve his country, but I would assume LaPorta would get a crack sooner or later. Peralta's another guy whose value in the real world is a good deal less than to fantasy baseball owners: his defense is poor, his OBPs are uninspired, and he's hit into 57 double plays the past 3 seasons. Valbuena, a 23 year old second baseman, may get a crack at regular playing time, but aside from an out-of-nowhere power surge in 70 games at AA last season (which he was unable to duplicate at Tacoma), his minor league line is pretty unimpressive.

And of course, there's Sizemore, the American League's answer to David Wright: like Wright, he's a perennial MVP candidate already at age 26, and like Wright he's likely sooner or later to have a bust-out year that soars over even his already elevated standards. Baseball-reference.com identifies the most similar player through age 25 as Barry Bonds (Duke Snider is third, having been Sizemore's closest comp in earlier years).

Detroit Tigers

Raw EWSL: 220.00 (73 W)
Adjusted: 227.07 (76 W)
Age-Adj.: 206.60 (69 W)
2009 W-L: 82-80

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Gerald Laird	9	8
1B	26	Miguel Cabrera	25	29
2B	33	Placido Polanco	18	15
SS	32	Adam Everett	6	5
3B	32	Brandon Inge	12	10
RF	35	Magglio Ordonez	23	16
CF	28	Curtis Granderson	22	22
LF	33	Carlos Guillen	17	14
DH	40	Gary Sheffield	9	5
C2	33	Matt Treanor	5	4
INF	29	Ramon Santiago	4	4
OF	32	Marcus Thames	7	6
13	28	Ryan Raburn#	3	3
SP1	26	Justin Verlander	12	13
SP2	26	Jeremy Bonderman	7	7
SP3	27	Armando Galarraga*	7	12
SP4	25	Edwin Jackson	6	6
SP5	31	Nate Robertson	6	5
RP1	29	Brandon Lyon	8	7
RP2	32	Fernando Rodney	4	3
RP3	24	Joel Zumaya	4	4
RP4	31	Bobby Seay	4	3
RP5	27	Zach Miner	6	6

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Clete Thomas, who subbed adequately for Granderson in center field last season; 25 year old OF Brent Clevlen, coming off a .279/.358/.496 season at AAA Toledo; and 26-year-old 1B Jeff Larish, coming off a .250/.341/.477 season at Toledo. All three could likely step in and provide adequate production, much as the Twins were able to keep throwing rookies out there last season. Pitchers - Dontrelle Willis is still part of the eventual rotation mix unless the Tigers can find a greater fool for his contract, although he's unlikely to be in the Opening Day rotation, as is 20 year old super-prospect Rick Porcello, who pitched well but without a whole lot of strikeouts in his first go-round in pro ball last season. The mediocre K rate is nothing to worry about until we see another season from him, but it does suggest he's not big league ready. Also Juan Rincon, Clay Rapada, and Freddy Dolsi. Aquilino Lopez has been justifiably given the boot after a year in which he had good K/BB numbers and a 3.55 ERA, but let in 29 of 57 inherited runners and saw the Tigers lose two thirds of his appearances.

Analysis: By season's end, the Tigers and Indians looked like Germany and Russia circa 1919, two onetime adversaries reduced to rubble, shell shock and internal strife. While nobody as valuable as Sabathia has left Detroit, the Tigers' problems may be more intractable, with more, older players (Polanco, Guillen and Ordonez are all 33 and up and Sheffield may be finished) and more severe pitching injuries, especially to Bonderman and Zumaya. I'm more optimistic about Verlander, but the rotation remains questionable, and Brandon Lyon is not exactly the most reliable closer.

Maybe it's a coincidence that the Marlins' defense improved significantly, and the Tigers' decayed significantly, when Cabrera left Florida for Detroit. The revelation about Vlad Guerrero being a year older than he let on makes me wonder about guys like Cabrera who - great a hitter as he is - tend to get a very large boost by analysts for being so young.

Hard to believe Granderson's 28 already. He played at close to MVP candidate level after his return last season, but the Tigers never escaped the hole his injury caused, especially defensively.

Kansas City Royals

Raw EWSL: 185.83 (62 W)
Adjusted: 202.13 (67 W)
Age-Adj.: 201.52 (67 W)
2009 W-L: 80-82

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	30	Miguel Olivo	8	7
1B	28	Mike Jacobs	11	12
2B	26	Alberto Callaspo#	4	5
SS	28	Mike Aviles*	9	17
3B	25	Alex Gordon*	12	17
RF	33	Jose Guillen	12	10
CF	29	Coco Crisp	12	12
LF	29	David DeJesus	18	17
DH	23	Billy Butler#	6	10
C2	28	John Buck	8	8
INF	33	Ross Gload	6	5
OF	27	Mark Teahen	14	14
13	31	Willie Bloomquist	4	3
SP1	30	Gil Meche	13	11
SP2	25	Zack Greinke	11	12
SP3	25	Kyle Davies	4	4
SP4	28	Brian Bannister	5	5
SP5	25	Luke Hochevar*	2	3
RP1	25	Joakim Soria#	13	17
RP2	30	Juan Cruz	6	5
RP3	33	Kyle Farnsworth	3	2
RP4	38	Ron Mahay	6	5
RP5	29	Horacio Ramirez	2	1

Subjective Adjustments: None, but color me a skeptic on Aviles repeating 2008.

Also on Hand: Position players - Well, there's Ryan Shealy and Tony Pena, both refugees from the starting lineup, as well as catcher Brayan Pena (who has been stuck in AAA for four years) and outfielder Shane Costa. 25-year Hawaiian 1B Kila Ka'aihue is an enigma, batting .199/.303/.300 in AA in 2006, .248/.359/.435 between A and AA in 2007, then exploding for 38 homers and a .313/.453/.618 line at three levels, mostly AA, in 2008. Pitchers - As usual, a cast of thousands, including Robinson Tejeda (who could end up in the pen or the rotation), Sir Sidney Ponson (who actually stands a pretty decent chance of cracking the rotation), Brandon Duckworth, Joel Peralta, and John Bale.

Analysis: The Royals are still the Royals, so fourth place is something they aspire to. There remains a lot of upside in Gordon, Butler and Greinke, and it's too early to write off Hochevar after a bad rookie campaign, although based on his 4.35 career minor league ERA, the jury is still out on whether there was ever a rational basis to consider him something more than the next Dan Reichert or Jeremy Affeldt. Greinke, by contrast, is a pitcher, not just a thrower; on a team with more offensive and defensive support I'd be more willing to buy into the idea that he's on the verge of emerging as an elite pitcher, or rather of putting up numbers commensurate with that stature.

I have a feeling that Coco Crisp is going to have a much improved year with the bat. No, I don't precisely have a rational basis for that other than a lifetime of watching the shapes of players' careers. DeJesus remains the Lee Mazzilli of these Royals. It's hard to envision this team winning anything (defined as 85 or more games) so long as Guillen is in the clubhouse.

Chicago White Sox

Raw EWSL: 167.67 (56 W)
Adjusted: 197.80 (66 W)
Age-Adj.: 180.15 (60 W)
2009 W-L: 73-89

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	32	AJ Pierzynski	9	7
1B	33	Paul Konerko	14	12
2B	25	Chris Getz+	0	11
SS	27	Alexei Ramirez*	9	19
3B	26	Josh Fields#	4	5
RF	35	Jermaine Dye	16	11
CF	28	Jerry Owens#	2	2
LF	26	Carlos Quentin	14	16
DH	38	Jim Thome	20	14
C2	23	Tyler Flowers+	0	4
INF	27	Wilson Betemit	5	5
OF	31	DeWayne Wise	1	1
13	25	Brent Lillibridge+	1	4
SP1	30	Mark Buehrle	15	13
SP2	24	John Danks#	10	13
SP3	26	Gavin Floyd	8	9
SP4	37	Jose Contreras	7	6
SP5	25	Clayton Richard*	0	0
RP1	28	Bobby Jenks	14	14
RP2	35	Octavio Dotel	4	3
RP3	32	Scott Linebrink	6	4
RP4	32	Matt Thornton	8	5
RP5	32	Mike MacDougal	2	1

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Jayson Nix, whose leg injury mostly left the 2B job to Getz; perennial disappointing CF Brian Anderson; Ben Broussard; and 33-year-old Crash Davis-style minor league catcher Corky Miller, and young SS Gordon Beckham. Pitchers - Bartolo Colon looks like he'll be in the starting rotation, but as with Pavano, I've rated the guy (Richard) likely to pick up the slack if Colon's not able to hitch up the plow every five days; the White Sox wouldn't rate much better if I rated Colon, who has amassed four Win Shares in the past three years. Then again, at least at the outset, Contreras may still be on the shelf. Jeffrey Marquez and Lance Broadway are also on hand. MacDougal is not a favorite of Ozzie Guillen, but his performance record still gives him the inside edge over those guys.

Analysis: EWSL and I were pretty down on the White Sox and wrong about it last year, and this year's prognosis is grimmer still; I don't actually see this as a last place team, but they do have real problems. Last year's improvement was driven by a bunch of breakout years from young players (Quentin, Danks, Floyd and Cuban import Ramirez); other than maybe the still gopher-prone Floyd, those guys look likely to be the real deal, but that doesn't mean they won't backslide some this season. It was also driven by the veteran power core, and another year of age on Thome, Dye and Konerko (also Pierzynski, Contreras and Dotel) is likely to catch up with them soon. The White Sox are likely to miss Orlando Cabrera's glove, and they still don't have a credible center fielder. That said, Fields could still provide some upside at 3B.

Flowers is 23 and hasn't played above A ball, and will start the season in the minors, and you never trust a guy the Braves let get away, but his career .291/.400/.488 line suggests potential, and it won't be surprising if the Sox give him the everyday job and deal AJ at some point.

Read More »

I'm short on time, so with only minimal comment I'll present the table comparing the 2008 Established Win Shares Levels to the teams' actual results, with the caveats noted in last year's writeup.

Read More »

It's time once again for my annual division previews using Established Win Shares Levels, which are explained here. Before we get to rolling out the 2009 EWSLs, I have to update the age adjustments and rookie values I use. These are based on the data I have gathered over the past five seasons, and so with each passing year, one would hope they become progressively more stable and useful (how accurate EWSL was in 2008 is another day's story, but of course as I always remind my readers, EWSL doesn't predict the future, it just provides a rough count of the talent on hand).

First up is the age adjustments; I've reformatted the table a bit from past years (see my writeups on the age adjustments following the 2004 season - also here - 2005, 2006 and 2007.

Read More »

Due to technical problems, I couldn't post the whole thing as one entry. Here's the conclusion.

As you can see from the top of the list, the Yankees have been far from uniformly unsuccessful with acquiring established veteran starting pitchers, and they've struck gold a bunch of times both with top-of-the-line acquisitions and with reclamation projects. But then, if you have a ton of money and you go in the market every year, you are bound to look like a genius now and then. And despite having, in the main, good baseball people working for them throughout most of this period, the Yankees have had flop after flop throughout every stage of the Steinbrenner years, from Gullett and Messersmith to Burns and Alexander to Hawkins and LaPoint to Mulholland and Rogers to Weaver, Pavano, Wright and Igawa. The collective Yield of the group, excluding the foreign pitchers, is 74.6%. The waste of dollars, of young talent in trade, of innings and run support to struggling starters, is enormous.

There are a variety of causes for this, and we generalize at our peril, as the Yankees have sometimes succeeded with the very same types of pitchers they failed with. Some of it, as with any team, is the unpredictable nature of pitching. Some is that having too much money to burn makes you sloppy. But we can generalize that the Yankees have made the same mistakes repeatedly over the years: they have too often put their faith in pitchers with major injury red flags; they have overpaid for guys coming off one good year; they have brought in too many veteran low-strikeout groundball pitchers, who are less consistent, have less of a margin for error, and are more dependent on their defense; and when they have brought in high-end power pitchers, too often they've been so old Father Time was bound to catch up with them eventually.

What does this mean for this year's crop? Sabathia looks like a good bet; he's up there with Hunter, Mussina, Cone, Clemens and Johnson among the best pitchers they have acquired, he's a power pitcher with a reasonably good health record and much younger than some of those guys. Burnett's also a power pitcher, but riskier, more like some of the failures; he's tended to get healthy only in his walk years. What is certain, it would seem, is that next year we'll be asking the same question about the next crop.

Hope springs eternal in baseball, and for the New York Yankees, with an aging offense, a lot of familiar faces gone and a steroid scandal swirling around the team's biggest star, a lot of those hopes ride on the shoulders of the team's two new free agent starting pitchers, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

Yankee fans have been down this road before.

Few things have been more constant in the Steinbrenner Era (dating back to George Steinbrenner's 1973 purchase of the team and continuing under his sons Hank & Hal) than the importation of established veteran starting pitchers. Since 1975, counting the importation of pitchers from Cuba and Japan, the Hated Yankees have brought in an established starting pitcher in the offseason 52 times in 35 seasons; only in five offseasons have they failed to do so in that period. Here is the list of those pitchers by year, along with their ages in their first season in pinstripes, how many seasons or parts of seasons they played with the Yankees, and how they were acquired:

Read More »

After I did my Hardball Times column on the post-1920 middle infielders in the Hall of Fame conversation, including the recently elected Joe Gordon - and you should go back and read the column if you expect to make sense of this post - I figured I'd like to check how the rough offensive "Rate" metric I was using stacks up to more sophisticated measurements that incorporate defense. With that in mind, I've pulled together in chart form for the long- and short-prime middle infielders a ranking by Win Shares per 162 team games for their prime years. To add to the picture I list their WS/162 for the non-prime seasons of their careers, which of course are highly variable (some guys get charged with "seasons" for a brief cup of coffee, like Alex Rodriguez in 1994 and 1995 or Rogers Hornsby spending the last 6 years of his career as a manager and part-time pinch hitter). Anyway, as you will see, the WS rankings match up fairly well with mine but naturally diverge in some cases, most obviously guys like Ozzie Smith who had a lot of defensive value.

Player	Age	Years	Seasons	WS	WS/162	Career WS	Rest	Rest Yrs	Avg WS	Rate
Rogers Hornsby	24-33	1920-29	9.51	362	38.07	502	140	12.12	11.55	186.7
Joe Morgan	25-33	1969-77	8.95	304	33.97	512	208	11.69	17.79	131.4
Arky Vaughan	21-29	1933-41	8.56	278	32.48	356	78	4.75	16.42	132.1
Craig Biggio	25-33	1991-99	8.57	269	31.39	428	159	11.00	14.45	127.3
Alex Rodriguez	20-27	1996-03	8.00	250	31.25	399	149	6.59	22.61	140.7
Ryne Sandberg	24-32	1984-92	9.00	260	28.89	346	86	6.36	13.52	116.3
Charlie Gehringer	25-35	1928-38	10.46	302	28.87	383	81	7.60	10.66	128.4
Lou Boudreau	22-30	1940-48	8.56	238	27.80	277	39	5.70	6.84	114.8
Cal Ripken	21-30	1982-91	10.00	273	27.30	427	154	10.23	15.05	121.9
Roberto Alomar	23-33	1991-01	10.57	281	26.58	375	94	6.00	15.67	113.4
Derek Jeter	24-33	1998-07	10.00	263	26.30	320	57	3.90	14.62	121.2
Vern Stephens	21-29	1942-50	8.56	225	26.29	265	40	5.70	7.02	111.3
Frankie Frisch	22-32	1921-31	10.46	274	26.20	366	92	7.52	12.23	106.3
Joe Cronin	23-34	1930-41	11.41	296	25.94	333	37	7.60	4.87	108.6
Jim Fregosi	21-28	1963-70	8.00	207	25.88	261	54	9.96	5.42	106.9
Jeff Kent	29-37	1997-05	9.00	232	25.78	339	107	7.59	14.10	116.6
Joe Sewell	22-29	1921-28	7.60	195	25.66	277	82	5.70	14.39	110.4
Billy Herman	25-33	1935-43	8.56	217	25.35	298	81	5.70	14.21	110.9
Barry Larkin	27-35	1991-99	8.57	217	25.32	347	130	10.00	13.00	101.3
Nellie Fox	23-32	1951-60	9.51	240	25.24	304	64	8.80	7.27	103.2
Pee Wee Reese	27-36	1946-55	9.51	237	24.92	314	77	5.70	13.51	100.8
Chuck Knoblauch	23-30	1992-99	7.57	188	24.83	231	43	4.00	10.75	110.9
Luke Appling	26/42	1933/49	14.26	354	24.82	378	24	4.75	5.05	100.3
Bobby Doerr	22/32	1940/50	9.51	232	24.40	281	49	3.80	12.89	107.7
Joe Gordon	23/34	1938/49	9.51	230	24.19	242	12	0.95	12.63	106.1
Bobby Grich	23-35	1972-84	12.67	296	23.36	329	33	4.00	8.25	99.5
Alan Trammell	22-32	1980-90	10.67	248	23.24	318	70	8.60	8.14	99.1
Lou Whitaker	26-35	1983-92	10.00	228	22.80	351	123	8.27	14.87	102.6
Ozzie Smith	30-37	1985-92	8.00	179	22.38	325	146	10.27	14.22	84.4
Tony Fernandez	23-31	1985-93	9.00	198	22.00	280	82	7.60	10.79	90.0
Tony Lazzeri	22-32	1926-36	10.46	230	21.99	252	22	2.85	7.72	105.6
Davey Concepcion	26-34	1974-82	8.67	189	21.80	269	80	9.95	8.04	85.9
Jay Bell	25-33	1991-99	8.57	183	21.35	245	62	9.00	6.89	99.5
Jim Gilliam	24-34	1953-63	10.60	219	20.66	247	28	3.00	9.33	84.3
Willie Randolph	21-32	1976-87	11.67	238	20.39	312	74	6.00	12.33	85.6
Bert Campaneris	23-34	1965-76	11.95	241	20.17	280	39	6.68	5.84	80.5
Ray Durham	26-34	1998-06	9.00	174	19.33	231	57	3.90	14.62	93.8
Davey Johnson	24-31	1967-74	8.00	147	18.38	171	24	5.00	4.80	86.7
Luis Aparicio	25-36	1959-70	11.85	212	17.89	293	81	5.80	13.97	76.2
Marty Marion	23-31	1941-49	8.56	153	17.87	177	24	3.80	6.32	66.8
Bill Mazeroski	20-31	1957-68	11.75	195	16.60	219	24	4.91	4.89	71.9
Frank White	27-36	1978-87	9.67	148	15.31	211	63	8.00	7.88	72.3

As you can see, Frisch, Cronin, Smith and Larkin - as befits their reputations - all go up the list by this measure, while Lazzeri, Whitaker, Bell and Durham go down (you will note, amusingly, that this puts Whitaker and Trammell together).

Two small data inconsistencies with the article, which was written after the 2006 season. One, I added Derek Jeter's 2007 (but not 2008) to complete his prime years; two, I adjusted Miguel Tejada's age.

Player	Age	Years	Seasons	WS	WS/162	Career WS	Rest	Rest Yrs	Avg WS	Rate
Jackie Robinson	29-33	1948-52	4.75	162	34.11	257	95	4.75	20.00	135.6
Robin Yount	24-28	1980-84	4.67	144	30.84	423	279	15.00	18.60	129.2
Ernie Banks	24-30	1955-61	6.65	194	29.17	332	138	11.90	11.60	135.3
Rod Carew	25-29	1971-75	4.95	129	26.06	384	255	13.68	18.64	120.7
Miguel Tejada	26-32	2000-06	7.00	182	26.00	239	57	5.00	11.40	115.9
Eddie Stanky	28-34	1945-51	6.65	164	24.66	191	27	3.80	7.11	98.2
Nomar Garciaparra	23-29	1997-03	7.00	169	24.14	218	49	6.00	8.17	109.4
Gil McDougald	23-29	1951-57	6.65	157	23.61	194	37	2.85	12.98	94.8
Dave Bancroft	29-35	1920-26	6.65	156	23.46	269	113	8.28	13.65	93.2
Maury Wills	27-33	1960-66	6.90	160	23.19	253	93	6.91	13.46	80.4
Phil Rizzuto	29-35	1946-52	6.65	154	23.16	231	77	5.70	13.51	87.0
Davey Lopes	28-34	1973-79	7.00	158	22.57	240	82	8.64	9.49	93.0
Alvin Dark	26-32	1948-54	6.65	150	22.56	226	76	6.65	11.43	96.8
Julio Franco	26-32	1985-91	7.00	155	22.14	280	125	15.70	7.96	105.3
Red Schoendienst	28-34	1951-57	6.65	147	22.11	262	115	11.51	9.99	97.3
Travis Jackson	22-27	1926-31	5.70	126	22.11	211	85	8.56	9.93	89.0
Cecil Travis	21-27	1935-41	6.65	146	21.95	169	23	4.75	4.84	96.8
Omar Vizquel	29-35	1996-02	7.00	119	17.00	267	148	12.59	11.76	82.4

As discussed in the article, Carew and Yount - like A-Rod - have other seasons that are "prime" but not as middle infielders (I looked at Carew's broader prime in the article on the tablesetters).

For one of the longer-term projects I've been working on, I've been going over the league-wide stolen base and caught stealing data at Baseball-Reference.com; I've been going back to the beginning of the Retrosheet era in 1956, since that's when the site has defensive stolen base data for individual catchers, although for the NL the site has league-wide figures back to 1951, and the AL to 1920.

Anyway, I thought I'd share the chart I put together for the 1956-2008 period, showing the number of games played, steals and caught stealings for each league, followed by the league-wide average of stolen base attempts per 162 team games and league-wide stolen base percentages.

Year	NL-G	NL-SB	NL-CS	NL-A/162	NL-SB%	AL-G	AL-SB	AL-CS	AL-A/162	AL-SB%
1956	1242	371	242	80	60.5%	1236	348	253	79	57.9%
1957	1238	399	254	85	61.1%	1232	368	304	88	54.8%
1958	1232	388	236	82	62.2%	1238	353	280	83	55.8%
1959	1240	439	271	93	61.8%	1236	414	235	85	63.8%
1960	1238	501	313	107	61.5%	1234	422	234	86	64.3%
1961	1238	468	288	99	61.9%	1622	578	311	89	65.0%
1962	1624	788	409	119	65.8%	1618	560	292	85	65.7%
1963	1622	684	493	118	58.1%	1616	552	270	82	67.2%
1964	1624	636	419	105	60.3%	1628	540	300	84	64.3%
1965	1626	745	429	117	63.5%	1620	704	357	106	66.4%
1966	1618	737	494	123	59.9%	1612	718	432	116	62.4%
1967	1620	694	470	116	59.6%	1620	679	470	115	59.1%
1968	1626	704	460	116	60.5%	1624	811	471	128	63.3%
1969	1946	817	548	114	59.9%	1946	1033	570	133	64.4%
1970	1942	1045	516	130	66.9%	1946	863	562	119	60.6%
1971	1944	900	492	116	64.7%	1932	865	547	118	61.3%
1972	1860	954	552	131	63.3%	1858	853	539	121	61.3%
1973	1942	976	552	127	63.9%	1944	1058	661	143	61.5%
1974	1944	1254	625	157	66.7%	1946	1234	758	166	61.9%
1975	1942	1176	558	145	67.8%	1926	1348	811	182	62.4%
1976	1944	1364	677	170	66.8%	1934	1690	867	214	66.1%
1977	1944	1555	843	200	64.8%	2262	1462	936	172	61.0%
1978	1942	1533	725	188	67.9%	2262	1471	892	169	62.3%
1979	1942	1486	767	188	66.0%	2256	1497	831	167	64.3%
1980	1946	1839	835	223	68.8%	2264	1455	775	160	65.2%
1981	1288	1108	543	208	67.1%	1500	913	557	159	62.1%
1982	1944	1782	822	217	68.4%	2270	1394	795	156	63.7%
1983	1948	1786	870	221	67.2%	2270	1539	749	163	67.3%
1984	1942	1728	773	209	69.1%	2268	1304	738	146	63.9%
1985	1942	1636	716	196	69.6%	2264	1461	715	156	67.1%
1986	1938	1842	858	226	68.2%	2268	1470	762	159	65.9%
1987	1942	1851	757	218	71.0%	2268	1734	772	179	69.2%
1988	1938	1789	729	210	71.0%	2262	1512	689	158	68.7%
1989	1946	1529	715	187	68.1%	2266	1587	726	165	68.6%
1990	1944	1787	727	210	71.1%	2266	1503	783	163	65.7%
1991	1940	1651	809	205	67.1%	2268	1469	758	159	66.0%
1992	1944	1560	741	192	67.8%	2268	1704	860	183	66.5%
1993	2270	1714	788	179	68.5%	2268	1549	872	173	64.0%
1994	1606	1141	529	168	68.3%	1594	1117	503	165	69.0%
1995	2014	1602	671	183	70.5%	2020	1331	586	154	69.4%
1996	2268	1785	709	178	71.6%	2266	1454	634	149	69.6%
1997	2268	1817	841	190	68.4%	2264	1491	723	158	67.3%
1998	2596	1609	751	147	68.2%	2268	1675	754	174	69.0%
1999	2591	1959	830	174	70.2%	2265	1462	689	154	68.0%
2000	2593	1627	736	148	68.9%	2265	1297	587	135	68.8%
2001	2592	1456	735	137	66.5%	2266	1647	673	166	71.0%
2002	2588	1514	703	139	68.3%	2264	1236	579	130	68.1%
2003	2590	1294	585	118	68.9%	2270	1279	547	130	70.0%
2004	2590	1336	527	117	71.7%	2266	1253	573	131	68.6%
2005	2594	1349	560	119	70.7%	2268	1216	509	123	70.5%
2006	2590	1515	610	133	71.3%	2268	1252	500	125	71.5%
2007	2594	1564	506	129	75.6%	2268	1354	496	132	73.2%
2008	2588	1482	547	127	73.0%	2268	1317	488	129	73.0%
TOTAL	103614	67266	32156	155	67.7%	105398	61396	31575	143	66.0%

A couple of conclusions:

1. You can see the rapid upward movements in steal attempts in the NL around 1962 (Maury Wills' big year) and 1974 (Lou Brock's), the AL much later in 1965-66 and then around 1974, and the big falloff around 2000 capping a longer-term decline (the NL's one-year spike in 1999 looks like just a fluke).

2. We're at something like a historic happy medium for stolen base attempts. Very low numbers of steal attempts generally mean that a lot of steal attempts are busted hit-and-runs, with a low success rate (the stolen base percentages of the 1950s bear this out), whereas very high numbers indicate a lot of high-risk running.

3. I think a good deal of the shift from the AL to the NL in big base stealing in the late 1970s was driven not just by the DH rule but by managers: Chuck Tanner moved to the NL in 1977, Whitey Herzog in 1980. Tanner in particular left his stamp on the AL in 1976, when he forgot his mother's admonition that if you make that steal sign on Opening Day it might freeze that way. The 1976 A's, on their way to their first failure to win the division in six years (helped along by the exodus of the Mustache Gang's stars) attempted an obscene 464 steals (the only other team in the league over 230 was Herzog's Royals at 322), albeit at an admirable 73.5% success rate. Don Baylor attempted 64 steals, Bill North 104, Sal Bando (!) 26, Phil Garner 48, Claudell Washington 57, Bert Campaneris 66, and the team's two full-time pinch runners, Matt Alexander and Larry Lintz, combined to attempt 69 steals while having only 33 plate appearances.

4. Stolen base percentages were growing steadily for much of the period, but have really entered a golden age only in the last 2-4 years - before 2004-05, it was rare for the AL to reach a 70% success rate, and the NL wasn't able to stay consistently above 70%; since then, we've seen the NL average spiral as high as 75.6%, with both leagues above 73% the past two seasons for the first time ever. The Mets and Phillies, led by Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, have been the leaders: in 2007-08, the Mets attempted an average of 210 steals per year with an 80.5% success rate, the Phillies an average of 159 steals with an 86.2% success rate.

It's an interesting question what the cause of this is. Probably the influence of sabermetrics is a part, especially since the growing popularity of Baseball Prospectus, the 2003 publication of Moneyball, the passing of generational torches and other events have helped focus managers' attention on not running themselves out of innings (a process accelerated by the post-1994 scoring/home run explosion that peaked in 1999-2000). I suspect that baserunners have gotten faster at a greater rate than catchers have been throwing harder. I don't think it's the pitchers; if anything, you hardly see the big leg kicks of the 1970s anymore. Looking around the league, it's hard to say that teams are really diminishing the priority they place on catchers who can throw, either (Piazza's not in the league anymore). I don't think equipment is a big factor, especially with artificial turf in declining usage, but better shoes may be incrementally aiding the baserunners.

Anyway, it's yet another reminder of how many different aspects of the game evolve over time, both in terms of strategy and in terms of outcomes.

Yesterday's start by Johan Santana reversed his usual pattern; whereas he has thus far, except for his beating at the hands of the Brewers, basically had stretches of dominance interrupted only by too-frequent home runs, yesterday he was laboring with a lot of men on base but muddled through to allow just a single run and leave with a lead the bullpen then gave away.

Now that we are 7 starts in to the Johan Santana Era, I thought it would be interesting to look back at the first 7 appearances by prior mid-career arrivals to the Mets rotation. I tried to limit this list to guys who were slotted comfortably into the rotation, and left off guys who were not yet established starters (other than Rick Reed), guys who were obvious reclamation projects (Pete Harnisch, Randy Jones, Don Cardwell, Ray Burris), guys who started off in the pen (George Stone posted an 0.60 ERA in 7 relief appearances in 1973 to force his way into the rotation), guys who went down for the year with injuries before making it through 7 starts (Vic Zambrano), guys who came straight from Japan (Masato Yoshii) and guys who started with the team in its expansion years. Here, in ascending order of ERA, you can see the great, the hideous, and everything in between (Seaver is listed here for his 1983 encore). One or two of these guys made a few relief appearances in here, but they all started at least 5 of the 7 games.

Pitcher	Age	Year	W-L	ERA	IP	H	HR	BB	K
Al Leiter	32	1998	3-2	1.39	45.1	36	0	16	41
Rick Reed	32	1997	3-2	1.50	48	35	3	5	32
Bob Ojeda	28	1986	5-1	1.70	42.1	36	2	10	27
Tom Seaver	38	1983	2-2	2.12	51	31	2	20	38
Bruce Berenyi	29	1984	4-3	2.70	43.1	40	3	18	29
Johan Santana	29	2008	3-2	2.91	46.1	35	7	12	47
Pedro Astacio	32	2002	5-2	2.94	49	44	7	11	40
Pedro Martinez	33	2005	4-1	3.06	50	25	3	9	63
Mickey Lolich	35	1976	2-4	3.14	43	46	2	11	39
Frank Viola	29	1989	2-4	3.18	51	41	2	14	42
Pat Zachry	25	1977	1-3	3.26	38.2	36	4	21	24
Armando Reynoso	31	1997	2-0	3.27	44	35	4	18	26
Hideo Nomo	29	1998	1-1	3.52	38.1	29	2	25	40
Tom Glavine	37	2003	4-2	3.64	42	44	4	13	22
Bret Saberhagen	28	1992	2-2	4.02	47	41	3	11	46
Mark Clark	28	1996	1-5	4.37	47.1	53	7	14	29
Orlando Hernandez	40	2006	2-4	4.89	38.2	39	6	12	30
Kevin Appier	33	2001	2-3	5.06	37.1	44	3	15	24
Mike Torrez	36	1983	1-3	5.16	29.2	31	1	16	13
Kris Benson	29	2004	3-3	5.49	41	46	6	13	24
Oliver Perez	24	2006	1-3	6.38	36.2	41	7	17	41
Mike Hampton	27	2000	2-4	6.52	38.2	41	2	36	19
Orel Hershiser	40	1999	2-4	6.62	35.1	41	0	22	18
Steve Trachsel	30	2001	1-5	7.05	37	50	9	11	25

I'm not sure you can generalize much here except to say that 7 games does not a season make - some of these guys stayed with the tone they set early, others saw their seasons turn around dramatically, whether for the better (Hampton, Trachsel) or for the worse (Astacio). Other notes:

*Note that the subsequent performance record of the guys who topped 49 innings is decidedly worse than the rest.

*Berenyi and Astacio were the only ones to get decisions in all 7 appearances.

*Yes, Santana's HR rate is bad. On the whole, Santana's had one of the better starts, but of course Viola was the only guy who arrived with comparable fanfare (Pedro and Saberhagen were surrounded by health questions from Day One).

*You forget quite how utterly dominant Pedro was in those early appearances.

*Remember that the league ERA has gone up a lot over the years; under the circumstances, the Mets were happier with El Duque on his arrival than they were with Lolich.

One of the interesting revelations about watching Johan Santana this season has been watching him hit. Pitchers, even ones who can swing the bat, usually have swings that are not that pretty to watch - they try to meet the ball, or take a butcher-boy approach to whacking it into the ground - but Santana's swing is relatively compact but with a sharp uppercut, a Mo Vaughn/David Oritz kind of swing, not at all what you expect from a pitcher who spent his whole career in the AL and isn't built like a burly first baseman.

And Santana's had decent results - he's batting .231/.286/.462 with 3 doubles in 13 at bats entering tonight's action, .250/.283/.386 in 46 career plate appearances, for a career OPS+ of 75, almost the level of a weak-hitting everyday catcher or shortstop.

The other reason this surprised me is that lefthanded power pitchers, in particular, have a fairly grisly track record at the plate. Some examples - bear in mind that you really need to work hard to get an OPS+ below zero; with 100 being the league average hitter, an OPS+ in the 20s is plenty bad (although by 2007, with pitchers falling further and further behind the average hitter, the NL OPS+ for pitchers was -3; in 1956 the Major League average for pitchers was 23) - I'm aware that not all these guys are known as power pitchers, but all of them were when they entered the league:

Pitcher	OPS+	Avg	OBP	SLG
Barry Zito	-46	.093	.111	.093
Al Leiter	-34	.085	.142	.102
Sandy Koufax	-26	.097	.145	.116
Bob Veale	-24	.114	.139	.129
Randy Johnson	-22	.127	.151	.156
David Wells	-22	.129	.148	.140
Jerry Koosman	-17	.119	.151	.141
Danny Jackson	-15	.126	.148	.164
Lefty Gomez	-7	.147	.194	.159
Al Downing	-5	.127	.169	.160
Vida Blue	-4	.104	.186	.145
Mickey Lolich	-2	.110	.215	.121
Sam McDowell	-2	.154	.171	.176
Mark Langston	-1	.152	.168	.185
Lefty Grove	6	.148	.209	.207
John Matlack	6	.129	.230	.136
Johnny Vander Meer	6	.152	.200	.180
Dave McNally	14	.133	.196	.201
Rube Marquard	17	.179	.207	.202
Carl Hubbell	18	.191	.212	.227
Steve Avery	18	.174	.194	.252
Billy Pierce	19	.184	.232	.203
Rube Waddell	25	.161	.197	.219
Ed Morris	26	.161	.193	.208

I included Waddell and Morris since they hale from an era when pitchers were expected to contribute more with the bat; Morris' presence shows that you can find this trend all the way back to the very first lefthanded pitcher to have a significant successful career (although his 1880s contemporaries Matt Kilroy and Toad Ramsey were much better hitters, with OPS+ of 72 and 42, respectively).

It's not all lefthanded power pitchers, of course; there's Babe Ruth, and there's also the following list of guys who ranged from dangerous hitters to fairly average hitting pitchers (Sabathia, like Santana, has limited hitting experience, just 39 plate appearances):

Pitcher	OPS+	Avg	OBP	SLG
CC Sabathia	90	.297	.316	.405
Tommy Byrne	77	.238	.286	.378
Dontrelle Willis	68	.234	.280	.359
Warren Spahn	43	.194	.234	.287
Hal Newhouser	36	.201	.267	.234
Steve Carlton	33	.201	.223	.259
Hippo Vaughn	33	.173	.232	.223
Fernando Valenzuela	30	.200	.205	.262
Whitey Ford	28	.173	.256	.200
Sid Fernandez	21	.182	.206	.223

(I remember Sid being a better hitter than that but he batted .080 after turning 30).

Even recognizing that this is more an anecdotal than a systematic study, I don't have a good single explanation here. Clearly some of these guys were not great athletes, but Koufax, for example, was an excellent basketball player; some of these guys are latter-day AL pitchers, but the pattern precedes them back to the early days and has continued in the NL. I suppose the ability to throw hard as a lefthander probably means most of these guys got identified as pitchers earlier in their baseball-playing youth than your typical stud athlete who plays a lot of SS and CF before settling into a single position; that seems to me the most likely reason.

This should be the last post from my preseason Established Win Shares (EWSL) division previews, and it's one I have been meaning to do in past years: a look at the amount of roster turnover. Each year, I identify 23 players who are projected to play roles for their team - 13 non-pitchers and 10 pitchers. That's not the whole Opening Day roster, but it pretty closely corresponds to the number of people who have something like a steady major league job, given the insecurity of life as a 12th pitcher or last man on the bench.

So, comparing the 2008 23-man rosters to the 2007 ones, how much turnover was there? 173 players were listed last season but not this year, an average of almost six per team. In percentage terms, 173 out of 690 - that's a 25% attrition rate in a single year even for guys who had made it all the way up the professional pyramid and shimmied up the greasy pole at the top to have one of those scarce jobs playing major league baseball. I'm not making any excuses for anyone when I say that you should remember figures like that the next time you read about ballplayers taking steroids, lying about their ages, corking their bats, scuffing the baseball, concealing injuries, or whatever other edge they think they need to get a big league job and contract and cling to it.

Not all these guys dropped out of the big leagues - some just slid from 10th pitcher to 11th, some are on the DL but could well be major contributors again by midseason, some are youngsters who got sent back for a little more minor league seasoning, some were guys I was just mistaken in thinking last year they'd have jobs. Some, in fact, are already back in a regular job a month later. The under-30 crowd in particular is dominated by injured pitchers. That said, the bulk of this list is guys who fell victim to the dog-eat-dog competition for scarce Major League jobs, most of whom will not return to that perch, and others of whom face an uphill battle in reclaiming those jobs from eager youngsters. In the main, they are a reminder that many more Major League careers end with a whimper than a bang.

The average age of the dropouts? 31.8. Average Win Shares earned show a pattern: 5.8 in 2005, 5.4 in 2006, 2.5 in 2007, with an age-adjusted EWSL of 3.4.

Here's the full list by age (sorted among age groups by declining EWSL) - each and every name on this list is a story of a guy who, at a minimum, started 2008 with less hope and optimism about his future than he did a year earlier:

Read More »

Now, lest I be accused of predicting the major leagues to finish above .500, I noticed that if you add up the W-L records in my preseason EWSL reports add up to have all of MLB over .500. The reason for that, of course, is as follows:

1. EWSL - by rating only 23 players per team, whereas the average team uses something like 35-40 players in a season - tends to underreport the total number of team wins.

2. To fix this in converting team EWSL to a W-L record this season I applied an average adjustment of plus 12.853 wins per team. That's the average number of wins you get from 1/3 of the average number of Win Shares per team earned in 2005-07 from players I didn't rate in a team's preseason 23-man EWSL roster.

That's a reasonable enough fudge factor, and I was doing one division at a time; but now that I have all 30 teams done, I need to rebalance the numbers to get them all out at .500. Also, I made two adjustments for roster changes between the writing of the previews and the start of the season: I replaced Kelvim Escobar, who is out for the season, with Dustin Moseley, thus dropping the Angels team EWSL from 250.31 to 247.08, and I replaced Reed Johnson (who got rated on both the Blue Jays and the Cubs) on Toronto's roster with John McDonald, dropping the Jays from 209.93 to 207.68. I stayed away from less drastic tinkering, but of course you can expect a downgrade on Detroit's full-season outlook, for example, from being without Curtis Granderson for the early part of the year (not that I'd blame his absence for everything that's gone wrong so far for the Tigers).

With those two adjustments made, we get a major league total of 6193.10 EWSL, which is enough for 68.81 wins per major league team. Now, there are two ways I could get that up to 81 wins per team - proportionally, as I did in 2005 and 2006, or by sticking with the straight addition per team approach. I'm using the latter because (1) historically, I have not observed any notable positive relationship between a team's preseason EWSL and how many WS it generates from players outside the 23-man roster and (2) adjusting proportionally gets us into some question-begging issues about the unbalanced schedule...I just don't want to get into that. So I'm now using a standard adjustment of plus 12.188 wins per team. Of course, for all that math it's an adjustment of less than half a win per team, so the end results here should not be all that dramatic.

Without further ado, here are the final standings according to EWSL:

NL EAST	W	L	GB
Mets	95	67
Phillies	87	75	8
Braves	80	82	15
Nationals	74	88	21
Marlins	66	96	29
NL CENTRAL	W	L	GB
Brewers	87	75
Astros	78	84	9
Cubs	78	84	9
Reds	77	85	10
Pirates	72	90	15
Cardinals	72	90	15
NL WEST	W	L	GB
Diamondbacks	92	70
Rockies	86	76	6
Dodgers	86	76	6
Padres	76	86	16
Giants	67	95	25

NL Wild Card: Phillies.

AL EAST	W	L	GB
Yankees	101	61
Red Sox	88	74	13
Blue Jays	81	81	20
Rays	71	91	30
Orioles	68	94	33
AL CENTRAL	W	L	GB
Tigers	101	61
Indians	97	65	4
Twins	83	79	18
White Sox	81	81	20
Royals	73	89	GB
AL WEST	W	L	GB
Angels	95	67
Mariners	86	76	9
Rangers	66	96	29
A's	66	96	29

AL Wild Card: Indians.

A few final notes, bearing in mind that in the division previews I already went through where I subjectively expect particular teams to depart from their EWSL baseline expectations. As noted in the divisional previews, EWSL is furthest out on a limb, compared to the general consensus among preseason analysts, in being pessimistic about the Red Sox, Cubs and Rays - the Cubs mainly because of their age, the Rays mainly because of their reliance on unproven youngsters, the Sox because of a mix of the two. The disadvantage of a system like EWSL that is not at all individualized is that it can't target the particular players who are likely to do a lot more than their prior major league accomplishments, as more refined systems like Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system can. But prediction isn't an exact science anyway; in looking over where things stand entering a season, there's something to be said for considering the discipline of a remorselessly depersonalized system such as this one, which cautions that unproven youngsters should be valued as such until they show us otherwise, and that age cuts down everyone sooner or later. The early injury to Matt Garza is perhaps one indicator of the wisdom of this approach. That said, as an empirical-testing matter, I'll be interested to see whether EWSL turns out to be a better guide as a whole to the direction of those three teams.

The last of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Today: the NL Central. Notes on the EWSL method are below the fold. Amazingly, for once I have finished all six divisions before the season is underway in earnest.

Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)

Milwaukee Brewers

Raw EWSL: 195.83 (65 W)
Adjusted: 220.43 (73 W)
Age-Adj.: 224.43 (75 W)
2008 W-L: 88-74

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	34	Jason Kendall	14	12
1B	24	Prince Fielder#	19	29
2B	25	Rickie Weeks	12	15
SS	25	JJ Hardy	12	16
3B	28	Bill Hall	15	15
RF	26	Corey Hart#	12	17
CF	35	Mike Cameron	20	14
LF	24	Ryan Braun*	11	28
C2	31	Mike Rivera	1	1
INF	37	Craig Counsell	10	6
OF	25	Tony Gwynn jr.*	2	4
12	28	Gabe Gross	6	6
13	32	Gabe Kapler	1	1
SP1	29	Ben Sheets	9	8
SP2	22	Yovanni Gallardo*	5	11
SP3	33	Jeff Suppan	11	8
SP4	28	David Bush	8	8
SP5	24	Carlos Villanueva#	5	6
RP1	32	Eric Gagne	4	3
RP2	30	Derrick Turnbow	7	6
RP3	31	David Riske	6	5
RP4	36	Salomon Torres	6	6
RP5	25	Manny Parra*	1	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Eric Munson lost the initial backup catcher battle to Rivera, but may be back. OF Laynce Nix and Russell Branyan were in camp, as were 3B Abraham Nunez and young 2B Joe Dillon. Pitchers - Chris Capuano, who had hoped to see if better defense could help him recover from last year's catastrophic falloff, faces an uncertain prognosis and may yet need Tommy John surgery. Don't bank on him. The Brew Crew has also been sentenced, like Sysiphus, to the potential of Seth McClung and Guillermo Mota. Chris Spurling and 39-year-old Brian Shouse are other relief options.

Analysis: The status of preseason favorite in the NL Central is a desirable one but by no means prestigious. The Brewers won 83 games last year, a bunch of their key guys are young, they brought in some veterans like Cameron (once his suspension is up), Riske and Torres...they will compete, and somebody's gotta win this division.

The rotation is far from imposing in the absence of Capuano, who has to be a longshot to reclaim his old form even if he is able to muddle through. If Sheets somehow stays healthy and Gallardo makes no return trips to the DL (he's on it now, recovering from offseason knee surgery), they could have a good 1-2, but the rest aspires merely to adequacy. The guys with real upside here are Weeks and Braun, if they can somehow avoid wrecking the defense again, and also the potential for a revival by Hall and Gagne.

88 wins sounds about right. That could be enough.

Houston Astros

Raw EWSL: 202.17 (67 W)
Adjusted: 223.93 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 198.61 (66 W)
2008 W-L: 79-83

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	24	JR Towles+	2	12
1B	32	Lance Berkman	26	22
2B	32	Kaz Matsui	10	9
SS	32	Miguel Tejada	19	16
3B	30	Ty Wigginton	11	9
RF	25	Hunter Pence*	9	20
CF	25	Michael Bourn*	2	5
LF	32	Carlos Lee	21	18
C2	39	Brad Ausmus	8	7
INF	36	Mark Loretta	14	10
OF	34	Darin Erstad	5	5
12	34	Jose Cruz jr.	6	5
13	35	Geoff Blum	8	5
SP1	30	Roy Oswalt	19	16
SP2	30	Brandon Backe	4	3
SP3	29	Wandy Rodriguez	5	4
SP4	30	Shawn Chacon	5	4
SP5	30	Chris Sampson#	4	4
RP1	28	Jose Valverde	11	11
RP2	26	Oscar Villarreal	4	4
RP3	41	Doug Brocail	4	3
RP4	31	Geoff Geary	5	4
RP5	36	Brian Moehler	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - C Humberto Quintero, who had a good spring and presumably would step in if the Astros finally realize that Ausmus is finished; Tomas Perez, David Newhan, Reggie Abrecrombie, Victor Diaz. Pitchers - Wesley Wright, a wild young lefty with good K numbers but little experience above AA, made the roster; Mark McLemore, with similar numbers last year in Houston, didn't. Dave Borkowski, Chad Paronto and Mike DeJean are also around; Woody Williams was a late cut (a terrible spring at 41 after posting a 5.27 ERA will do that; Williams can still throw strikes but I suspect he just has nothing left).

Analysis: For the second year in a row, EWSL seems unaccountably optimistic about the Astros, but I suppose optimistic is a relative term, when a lineup with this many quality veterans, a solid closer and a major ace pitcher is still projected to finish below .500. The new but not improved rotation seems unlikely to be competitive beyond Oswalt, but you never know; maybe this will be the year Backe is finally healthy. The bullpen is totally rebuilt, but in some cases with less than the most consistent relievers. Valverde is solid, but the Win Shares system may overrate him just a bit because of the extreme number of close games the D-Backs led in last season (not that he doesn't deservie his share of the credit for that).

Geoff Blum is ailing, and it's not like he's Mike Schmidt when he is healthy. Matsui is too, but we won't get into that. Ausmus is the emergency infielder, and that about says it all.

Chicago Cubs

Raw EWSL: 185.83 (62 W)
Adjusted: 216.63 (72 W)
Age-Adj.: 196.25 (65 W)
2008 W-L: 78-84

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Geovany Soto+	2	12
1B	32	Derrek Lee	17	15
2B	33	Mark DeRosa	13	12
SS	28	Ryan Theriot#	8	9
3B	30	Aramis Ramirez	21	18
RF	31	Kosuke Fukudome+	0	12
CF	23	Felix Pie*	3	7
LF	32	Alfonso Soriano	15	14
C2	36	Henry Blanco	3	2
INF	25	Ronny Cedeno	3	3
OF	31	Reed Johnson	9	7
12	33	Daryle Ward	5	4
13	28	Mike Fontenot*	3	5
SP1	27	Carlos Zambrano	17	16
SP2	28	Rich Hill#	8	10
SP3	32	Ted Lilly	12	8
SP4	29	Jason Marquis	7	6
SP5	31	Ryan Dempster	8	7
RP1	31	Kerry Wood	2	2
RP2	25	Carlos Marmol#	6	8
RP3	34	Bobby Howry	10	7
RP4	29	Michael Wuertz	5	5
RP5	36	Scott Eyre	5	4

Subjective Adjustments: None. Felix Pie hit too poorly last season to deserve any sort of bump until he proves himself.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Alex Cintron lost out on the middle infield reserve job. Matt Murton will almost certainly be traded unless there's an injury that presses him into service very soon. 2B Eric Patterson is also on hand. Pitchers - The Cubs have them in reserve if needed - Neal Cotts, Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall and Carmen Pignatiello.

Analysis: Why is EWSL so down on the Cubs, when everyone else in the universe seems to have ceded them this division? Age is a big factor: the age adjustments take a big bite out of 30-and-up players like Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Howry, and Lilly, and those add up. Nobody on the team rates more than 18 EWSL; Arizona, Toronto and the White Sox are the only other teams with pretensions at contending that don't have a 20 EWSL player, and the D-Backs are deep in young talent and pitching, in ways the Cubs aren't, while I'm less than impressed with the other two. Some guys may be underrated here; Marmol, like Fausto Carmona, is rated in part on his dismal 2006, since I can't and won't just make it magically vanish, but Marmol in particular seems likely to come closer to last year's 11 WS than to the projected 8, just as Derrek Lee does seem likely to stay healthy enough to turn out 20 WS, as his 2006 injury was a fluke. The main upside here is in players who are unproven or a crapshoot - Wood, Soto, Pie and Fukudome. But EWSL is designed to deliver the bad news: by banking on each of them, the Cubs are banking on hope of something that has not happened at the Major League level before. I can see expecting the Cubs to outpace their EWSL record by several game; I can't see projecting this team as likely to cruise to 90+ wins, even with a boatload of games within a dreadful division.

I don't know any more about Fukudome than you do. He's listed at 6'0" and 190, so he doesn't quite have Hideki Matsui's size, and thus may be less reliable in preserving his HR power (and Matsui himself lost quite a few homers in translation). Fukudome's had great OBPs in Japan, it remains to be seen whether pitchers will work around him as much if he hits for less power here.

Cincinnati Reds

Raw EWSL: 192.00 (64 W)
Adjusted: 211.53 (71 W)
Age-Adj.: 193.18 (64 W)
2008 W-L: 77-85

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	Dave Ross	8	7
1B	24	Joey Votto+	2	12
2B	27	Brandon Phillips	13	14
SS	31	Alex Gonzalez	11	9
3B	25	Edwin Encarnacion	13	17
RF	38	Ken Griffey jr.	13	10
CF	28	Corey Patterson	9	9
LF	28	Adam Dunn	19	20
C2	32	Javier Valentin	6	5
INF	28	Jeff Keppinger	5	5
OF	32	Ryan Freel	8	6
12	29	Norris Hopper*	4	7
13	38	Scott Hatteberg	11	8
SP1	30	Aaron Harang	16	14
SP2	31	Bronson Arroyo	14	11
SP3	22	Johnny Cueto+	0	4
SP4	31	Josh Fogg	6	4
SP5	24	Ednison Volquez#	1	1
RP1	33	Francisco Cordero	12	9
RP2	38	David Weathers	11	9
RP3	29	Jeremy Affeldt	4	3
RP4	27	Todd Coffey	4	4
RP5	27	Jared Burton*	3	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Jay Bruce, of course, is the elephant in the AAA outfield. Juan Castro is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery (how many times have I written that in these previews this year?) Also OF DeWayne Wise, C Paul Bako and INF Jolbert Cabrera. Pitchers - Homer Bailey got passed on the way up by Cueto; Bailey still has great stuff but has apparently not proven all that swift a learner. Kent Mercker is on the roster; Mike Stanton got cut, and Greg McMichael was not in camp. Matt Belisle is expected to have a job when he is ready. Others include Bill Bray, Gary Majewski, Jon Coutlangus, snf Bobby Livingston.

Analysis: How many stories can Dusty Baker jump out of and still land on his feet? Perricone thinks the answer is "none, unless Barry Bonds is involved." The decision to bring in Corey Patterson and make him the CF/leadoff man has been hashed out by others, but I wonder if it's really just a smike screen for the same thing Tampa is doing, and keeping Bruce in the minors until the first time Griffey gets eaten by wolverines (15-day DL) so they can keep Bruce's service time down. Or, Dusty could just be an idiot.

The Reds are unlikely to be terrible, and that alone will make Baker look fine. There's not a ton of talent here unless the real youngsters (Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Bailey) go nuts, but there's enough to hang around .500.

I confess I had no idea Cordero was 33 already; as I noted in November, while he's not a great pickup he does have a pretty good record at avoiding the longball, which is key in this park.

Is it just me or does Ednison Volquez change the spelling of his name every year?

Pittsburgh Pirates

Raw EWSL: 179.67 (60 W)
Adjusted: 188.57 (63 W)
Age-Adj.: 180.17 (60 W)
2008 W-L: 73-89

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	27	Ronny Paulino#	10	12
1B	28	Adam LaRoche	15	16
2B	30	Freddy Sanchez	20	17
SS	30	Jack Wilson	16	14
3B	27	Jose Bautista#	9	11
RF	29	Xavier Nady	10	9
CF	26	Nate McLouth	6	7
LF	29	Jason Bay	18	17
C2	27	Ryan Doumit	5	5
INF	37	Chris Gomez	4	3
OF	27	Njyer Morgan*	2	4
12	34	Doug Mientkiewicz	5	5
13	28	Chris Duffy	5	6
SP1	26	Ian Snell	8	9
SP2	25	Tom Gorzelanny#	7	9
SP3	33	Matt Morris	8	6
SP4	26	Paul Maholm	6	6
SP5	25	Zach Duke	6	7
RP1	24	Matt Capps#	9	11
RP2	33	Damaso Marte	5	3
RP3	29	John Grabow	4	3
RP4	30	Tyler Yates	2	2
RP5	26	Franquelis Osoria	1	1

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Matt Kata, Luis Rivas. Pitchers - Evan Meek, Phil Dumatrait, Sean Burnett, John Van Berschoten; Jonah Bayliss was also in camp but seems to have been let go.

Analysis: Maybe this is unfair to some of these guys, but when I was doing the depth charts, anytime I came across some guy who is miserable, washed up or otherwise down on his luck, and I was wondering where he ended up? Pirates camp.

Doug Mientkiewicz? Check.
Jaret Wright? Check.
Casey Fossum? Check.
Matt Morris? Check.
Luis Rivas? Check.
Chris Gomez? Check.
Byun-Hyung Kim? Check.
Elmer Dessens? Check.

They cut Kim, Dessens, Fossum and Wright, but then they traded for Tyler Yates, and gave a bullpen slot to Evan Meek, who has a career minor league ERA of 5.14, has never pitched above AA and has walked 198 batters in 287 career innings. Maybe this isn't satire.

David Wright, David Ortiz, Jack Wilson, Magglio Ordonez, Todd Helton, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Carlos Pena, Jorge Posada...one of these things is not like the others. That's the Major League OBP leaders for last August 1 through the end of the year, all of whom slugged above .560 with an OBP of at least .444 for that stretch. Wilson, who hit .409/.467/.697 down the last two months, had batted just .252/.303/.342 before that. (Actually, the whole Pirate offense had a torrid run to the finish line.) It was a bizarre hot streak, but don't expect a repeat. I do think LaRoche will turn in a better year, but Fredy Sanchez's early injuries worry me (Duffy is also hurt).

St. Louis Cardinals

Raw EWSL: 174.33 (58 W)
Adjusted: 191.10 (64 W)
Age-Adj.: 179.90 (60 W)
2008 W-L: 73-89

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Yadier Molina	11	14
1B	28	Albert Pujols	34	35
2B	32	Adam Kennedy	9	7
SS	28	Cesar Izturis	5	5
3B	31	Troy Glaus	16	14
RF	28	Skip Schumaker*	4	7
CF	28	Rick Ankiel*	4	8
LF	27	Chris Duncan#	12	15
C2	34	Jason LaRue	6	5
INF	31	Aaron Miles	10	8
OF	26	Brian Barton+	0	4
12	29	Ryan Ludwick	5	5
13	30	Rico Washington+	0	1
SP1	26	Adam Wainwright#	10	13
SP2	29	Kyle Lohse	8	6
SP3	29	Todd Wellemeyer	3	3
SP4	33	Braden Looper	7	5
SP5	26	Brad Thompson	5	5
RP1	35	Jason Isringhausen	11	7
RP2	39	Russ Springer	6	5
RP3	35	Ryan Franklin	6	4
RP4	32	Randy Flores	2	2
RP5	29	Joel Pineiro	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None. I could have bumped up Ankiel, but who knows what to expect from him? I at least rated him as a rookie last year, since he's not the same player he was in 1999.

Also on Hand: Non-Pitchers - Juan Gonzalez is, unsurprisingly, hurt, much to Ryan Ludwick's relief; Juan Encarnacion is out quite a while. Brendan Ryan is hurt. D'Angelo Jimenez is on hand. Scott Speizio is not, having been cut in late February after an ugly DWI incident. Yes, the Cards have a Brian Barton and a Brian Barden. Colby Rasmus and Joe Mather are the soon-to-arrive power-hitting OF prospects. Pitchers - Much will turn on the impossible-to-predict returns of Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement from injury; Tyler Johnson is also hurt. Anthony Reyes is at the back of the bullpen but remains a promising rotation prospect. Others on hand incluyde Ron Villone, Kelvin JImenez and Kyle McClellan.

Analysis: There are many storylines around the Cardinals this spring, and few happy ones - bad elbows and bad shoulders, steroids and HGH, lawsuits and demon alcohol. Minor league old soldier Rico Washington getting a major league job is one of the nicer ones, but inconsequential in analytical terms. From Pujols' could-blow-anytime arm on down, it's a fool's errand to predict anything of this team, but they won't be real good, that much is clear.

Pineiro will take one of the rotation spots, probably Thompson (the 5th starter) or Looper (who had a crummy spring) when he returns in a few weeks. LaRussa and Dave Duncan will be called on yet again to work their magic with Lohse, a classic guy nearing 30 with a live arm and not much to show for it, exactly their type.

If you were picking a guy to lose nearly 50 points off his batting average in 2007, you would not have selected LaRue, who had batted .194 the prior year.

Given that Molina is only 25, it may turn out that he will hit some after all; his brother Bengie didn't hit until he was 28.

Read More »

The fifth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Today: The NL East. Notes on the EWSL method are below the fold.

Key: + (Rookie) * (Based on one season) # (Based on two seasons)

New York Mets

Raw EWSL: 268.00 (89 W)
Adjusted: 268.70 (90 W)
Age-Adj.: 248.56 (83 W)
2008 W-L: 96-66

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	Brian Schneider	11	9
1B	36	Carlos Delgado	19	14
2B	32	Luis Castillo	17	14
SS	25	Jose Reyes	24	31
3B	25	David Wright	31	40
RF	29	Ryan Church	12	11
CF	31	Carlos Beltran	27	23
LF	41	Moises Alou	14