Politics 2005 Archives
December 31, 2005
POLITICS: Renaming Albany "Trump City"?
If you missed it yesterday, the Daily News is floating the rumor - backed, apparently, by a tantalizing quote from State Senate Republican leader Joseph Bruno - that Donald Trump is thinking of running for governor as a Republican. The News is pushing this story again today. Random thoughts:
*Is the NY GOP this desperate? Why, yes, in fact, they are. I haven't followed the travails of Bill Weld lately, but I'm not feeling very optimistic about him at this stage.
*Would I rather have Trump as my governor than Eliot Spitzer? Yes, but that's hardly saying much.
*Trump does have some obvious selling points. He'd be self-financing. He understands business, which makes an effective contrast to the business-hating Spitzer. He knows how to get things done, and likely would work better and less confrontationally with the Legislature than celebrity governors like Schwarzenegger and Ventura have. He'd finally get the Trade Center site working.
*I have neither the time nor the energy here to recount the downsides of Trump as a public official (or as a campaigner), but let's just say there's no shortage of those, either. And he'd be only the most nominal of Republicans, even compared to Weld.
*The NY tabloids could not invent a better candidate for the purpose of selling newspapers.
December 28, 2005
POLITICS: Donkeys in a Nutshell
Dave Barry's political humor, like the rest of his humor, is always hilarious and often true as well, which is just one of many reasons why news that his weekly columns won't be returning is too bad. Barry's a libertarian, which explains why he's able to consistently target both sides of the partisan aisle. Anyway, there's one line in the first segment of his 2005 in review column (which has plenty of laughs at Bush's expense as well) that captures the Democrats in a nutshell:
In a strongly worded rebuttal, angry congressional Democrats state that, because of a scheduling mixup, they missed the President's speech, but whatever he said, they totally disagree with it, and if they once voted in favor of it, they did so only because the President lied to them.
December 22, 2005
POLITICS: One Penny At A Time
*Jon Henke calls for Line-Item Budgeting - not just a line-item veto by the president, but forcing Congress to vote on each expenditure. More here. There would obviously be some practical hurdles: how do you decide what is a separate item? For example, can the Army budget include tanks and guns in the same item? One could see how even the hardiest advocate of creating obstacles to government spending might blanch at this if it's not carefully crafted, even leaving aside the practical poilitical obstacles to either (1) amending the constitution to require this or (2) getting our legislators to agree to it, to the detriment of their own influence.
A similar problem besets two similar ideas I keep coming back to. One is the idea of some sort of prohibition on items of spending and taxation that are, in effect, special-interest legislation. I do think you could, if you were writing this all from scratch, devise a fairly clear test for expenditures and tax breaks that do not benefit the general public, and perhaps even use the courts to enforce that line. But there would still be problems in policing the marginal cases.
Similarly, my other idea, which would require a narrow exception for certain critical national security functions: prohibit the federal government from sending money to state and local governments, or from imposing most mandates on them. Each governmental entity should raise through taxation whatever it needs, and no more than it can justify to the voters in its own jurisdiction.
December 12, 2005
POLITICS/LAW: Same Sex Marriage and Children
Last Thursday, the New York Appellate Division, First Department - the intermediate appellate court in Manhattan - upheld, against constitutional challenge, the New York Domestic Relations Law's extension of marriage only to opposite-sex couples. (H/T: Althouse). In so doing, it touched on some arguments on the issue that I've been thinking about for some time now.
In particular, our democratic polity has a rational basis for preferentially allocating scarce resources to benefit opposite-sex rather than same-sex married couples to promote two vital interests: promoting the population growth needed to sustain a healthy society and discouraging illegitimacy and abortion.
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With a subject as divisive as same-sex marriage, it's necessary to spend a little time first rehashing where I stand on the issue and why. The same-sex marriage debate, at least as it plays out in the realm of law and public policy, really encompasses four distinct questions about of rights and privileges:
1. Is there a social interest served by having government license and regulate marriage?
2. Is there a social interest served by having government provide financial benefits and incentives to encourage marriage?
3. Should same-sex couples be entitled to enter into a relationship licensed and regulated by the state?
4. Should same-sex couples be entitled to financial benefits and incentives that are provided to encourage marriage?
Not everyone comes out the same way on all four questions. Some libertarians, for example, argue that the state shouldn't be involved at all in licensing and regulating marriage. I don't buy that argument, not least because - much as I hate divorce - I recognize that in the absence of recourse to the courts to handle the dissolution of marriages and child custody disputes, you'd end up with more couples resorting to violence to resolve such disputes.
Libertarians and some small-government conservatives also argue that even if the state licenses marriage, it shouldn't be in the business of favoring any one relationship over others in handing out benefits and tax breaks. A 1999 GAO study estimated that the government alone preferential treatment of some kind to married couples in over 1,000 places in federal law, from pensions to the tax code. The libertarian/small-government conservative argument - that a smaller, less intrusive government would intersect with families at fewer points and that government shouldn't make any effort to encourage or discourage any particular behavior beyond what is legitimately criminalized - has its merits, but for now, I'll just leave that debate for another day. Like it or not, government is in the social-policy business, and until the day comes when we can create a radically smaller and less intrusive government, we're going to have to decide how that government allocates scarce resources among competing claimants.
As I explained at greater length here and here, I support legislatively extending to same-sex couples the right to have their relationship recognized and sanctioned under law, and I support as well allowing such couples those benefits that are provided to married couples principally for the purpose of enabling them to dispose of their own property and to participate in each other's major life events - benefits like joint title to property, inheritance rights, hospital visitation rights, etc. None of these rights imposes any substantial costs on society at large - except, perhaps, for the right to seek court assistance in dissolving the civil union - and they are consistent with the view that the decision to spend your life with a same-sex partner is between you, your partner and the Lord, and isn't fundamentally the state's business.
But where I disagree with proponents of same-sex marriage is on two counts: first, the effort to forbid the state from offering any benefits to traditional, opposite-sex married couples unless it offers them to same-sex couples on the same terms, and second, the effort to impose changes in the legal status of marriage through the courts rather than the democratic process. As I've explained before, what I find particularly offensive about the latter is the fact that its core argument - that there is no "rational basis" for the state to favor traditional, opposite-sex marriage - is precisely the denigration of such marriage that same-sex marriage proponents are constantly trying to disclaim:
[W]hat does stick in my craw rather severely is the Goodridge approach of having a bunch of judges pronounce not only a change in the thousands-of-years-old definition of marriage, but also that there is no rational basis whatsoever for that institution as it has always existed. . . [W]e're being asked to swallow a legal declaration that our longstanding and sacred institutions have no meaning, and we're supposed to smile when they tell us that. Why shouldn't that bother me?
Anyway, all of this is background. The New York court's decision properly recognized that this issue should be dealt with by the state Legislature (as is being done in Great Britain), not the courts, and distinguished the Supreme Court's 1967 decision in Loving v. Virginia, involving interracial marriage, finding that "that Court held that the intent of the anti-miscegenation statute directly conflicted with the fundamental right to be free from racial discrimination based on the Equal Protection Clause, as well as with the fundamental right to traditional marriage based on substantive due process." Hernandez v. Robles, 2005 NY Slip Op 09436, at *9 (N.Y.A.D. 1st Dep't Dec. 8, 2005).
The portion of the opinion I'm interested in dealt with the rational basis the state does have in offering additional benefits and protections to traditional, opposite-sex marriage:
Marriage, defined as the union between one man and one woman, is based upon important public policy considerations and has been recognized as a fundamental constitutional right. These considerations are based on innate, complementary, procreative roles, a function of biology, not mere legal rights. The reasons justifying the civil marriage laws are inextricably linked to the fact that human sexual intercourse between a man and a woman frequently results in pregnancy and childbirth.
The legislative policy rationale is that society and government have a strong interest in fostering heterosexual marriage as the social institution that best forges a linkage between sex, procreation and child rearing. It systematically regulates heterosexual behavior, brings order to the resulting procreation and ensures a stable family structure for the rearing, education and socialization of children. Marriage promotes sharing of resources between men, women and the children that they procreate; provides a basis for the legal and factual assumption that a man is the father of his wife's child via the legal presumption of paternity plus the marital expectations of monogamy and fidelity; and creates and develops a relationship between parents and child based on real, everyday ties. It is based on the presumption that the optimal situation for child rearing is having both biological parents present in a committed, socially esteemed relationship. The law assumes that a marriage will produce children and affords benefits based on that assumption. It sets up heterosexual marriage as the cultural, social and legal ideal in an effort to discourage unmarried childbearing and to encourage sufficient marital childbearing to sustain the population and society; the entire society, even those who do not marry, depend on a healthy marriage culture for this latter, critical, but presently undervalued, benefit. Marriage laws are not primarily about adult needs for official recognition and support, but about the well-being of children and society, and such preference constitutes a rational policy decision.
+++
Plaintiffs fail to carry their burden of demonstrating that the legislative facts on which the statutory classification is apparently based could not reasonably be conceived to be true by the governmental decisionmaker. They do not dispute the Legislature's assumptions concerning the advantages of encouraging the rearing of children by both biological parents. Their argument that the statute does not have a rational basis because it allows heterosexual couples unable or unwilling to have children to marry ignores precedent holding that the classification created by a statute need not be perfect. Nor does it lack rational basis because it addresses one legitimate policy interest or problem (regulating heterosexual marriage) over others even if they are related to the same subject. The legislative process involves setting priorities, making difficult decisions, making imperfect decisions and approaching problems incrementally, and rational basis analysis does not require that a legislature take the ideal or best approach.
Slip op. at *6-8 (Emphasis added; citations omitted).
There's a couple of critical points here. Proponents of same-sex marriage often treat the connection between marriage and children as an argument that can be disposed of by syllogism: that since heterosexual couples are able to marry even if they have no intention or ability to have children, it must be the case that bearing and begetting children has no rational relationship to marriage and can't be a proper basis for distinguishing between opposite-sex and same-sex mariage. There are, however, four major reasons for finding this argument unpersuasive.
The first, not discussed above, is one I'll touch on just briefly here: privacy. The state can determine just by looking at a same-sex couple that they're not likely to bear children, and can't do so through traditional means. With the exception of the aged and a few other classifications, that's not true of opposite-sex couples: the government would need to conduct an intrusive investigation to ascertain that an opposite-sex couple was infertile, not having sex, using birth control or otherwise unable or unwilling to bear children.
The next two reasons are related. As the court notes, the rational basis test doesn't require a perfect "fit" between the preferred solution adopted by democratic policymakers and the ends they seek to promote. There are scores of examples of government programs, tax credits and the like that provide benefits to a group of people or institutions not because they will all advance the interests the government is trying to promote, but because it can be rationally determined that they are more likely than another group to provide the desired social benefits. If we required a perfect fit, precious few government programs could survive rational basis scrutiny.
The third, related reason is that society as a whole has an interest in promoting childbearing, an interest the Hernandez court dryly notes is "critical, but presently undervalued." A look at the demographic crisis in Europe, Russia and Japan is all that needs to be said for the importance of this interest: without a decent level of childbearing, society becomes top-heavy with old people and enters a spiral of declining population, which is problematic on many levels.
Now, it's certainly true that same-sex couples can now use modern technology to have children without being in a heterosexual relationship. And it is argued - and argument I won't even try to wade into - that same-sex parents can be just as good at raising children as opposite-sex couples. That's still not enough to show that there's no rational basis for preferring opposite-sex couples if your goal is to promote having children.
Let's give a hypothetical example to illustrate why. Let's say that you're an investor in a new planned community, to be started from scratch in a part of the country that presently has little population. And let's further suppose that, based on the mix of businesses you are hoping to attract to your planned community, your consultants and investment bankers inform you that the economic assumptions of the project require that a fairly large proportion of the new residents be families with children. And, finally, let's suppose that you had a finite budget for advertising and sales, and that budget included a deal with an airline to bring in, say, 500 prospective residents at little or no cost to inspect the place.
It doesn't matter what your agenda or your biases are - acting out of pure rational economic self-interest, wouldn't you very strongly prefer that the 500 seats went to opposite-sex married couples? Aren't they very obviously the people most likely to produce children in general, and multiple-child families in particular? Granted, I don't have an empirical study in hand on the point, and I suspect that if you did one it would be objected to on the grounds that many obstacles stand in the way of same-sex couples having children . . . but even so, is it really so irrational to believe that a set of 250 opposite-sex married couples would, in almost any conceivable circumstance, produce more children than 250 same-sex married couples of the same age and socioeconomic background? If that isn't a rational conclusion for government to draw, there are precious few of the conclusions supporting any legislation that will withstand scrutiny.
The fourth point is the flip side of promoting the begetting and bearing of children: promoting the raising of children in two-parent homes rather than single-parent homes by "set[ting] up heterosexual marriage as the cultural, social and legal ideal in an effort to discourage unmarried childbearing". If underpopulation is a bit of an abstract, big-picture public policy problem, illegitimacy is not. An endless march of empirical studies has found that illegitimacy correlates strongly with poverty, criminality, and virtually every other social problem you can think of.
And, by definition, illegitimacy is an exclusively heterosexual problem. Unmarried gay sex does not lead to unplanned or unprepared-for pregnancies, period. Unmarried gay couples will not produce single-parent homes, nor will they have abortions, whereas the number of children aborted by or born to unmarried heterosexuals every year is very large. By targeting tax breaks and other preferential benefits towards opposite-sex married couples, government can help encourage unmarried opposite-sex couples to marry and can reinforce existing social norms in favor of such marriages.
Like I said, neither of the two arguments depends in any way on a legislative determination of whether same-sex couples are or are not as qualified to raise children as opposite-sex couples. Rather, they simply recognize that opposite-sex couples are more likely to have more children once married, and are also far more likely to have children even outside of marriage. It's an entirely rational policy choice, therefore, to focus scarce societal resources on promoting opposite-sex marriage as a way of sustaining population growth while discouraging illegitimacy.
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POLITICS: The Cost of Abortion
A new study from the University of Oslo compared women who miscarry and women who have abortions:
The Oslo team found that, after 10 days, 47.5% of women who had miscarried suffered from some degree of mental distress compared with 30% of the abortion group.
The proportion of women who had a miscarriage suffering distress decreased during the study period, to 22.5% at six months and to just 2.6% at two years and five years.
But among the abortion group 25.7% were still experiencing distress after six months, and 20% at five years.
The researchers also said that women who had an abortion had to make an effort to avoid thinking about the event.
Naturally, the article reporting the study, from the BBC, includes quotes from representatives of the British abortion industry denying any ill effects from their product. As you would expect the industry to say. But avoidance of the truth requires a sustained commitment to avoiding empirical study of the facts.
December 2, 2005
POLITICS: The Bush Tax Cuts, Illustrated
This handy chart from the Treasury Department illustrates the recovery in employment since the 2003 tax cuts - which, unlike the original 2001 cuts, were phased in imemdiately and thus could immediately affect incentives - quite nicely.
November 27, 2005
POLITICS: The Other Novak
This doesn't sound good for Karl Rove:
Viveca Novak, a reporter in Time's Washington bureau, is cooperating with Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald, who is investigating the leak of CIA operative Valerie Plame's identity in 2003, the magazine reported in its Dec. 5 issue.
Novak specifically has been asked to testify under oath about conversations she had with Rove attorney Robert Luskin starting in May 2004, the magazine reported.
It can't be good news that the special prosecutor is looking at things done and said after the investigation began, although of course there are many explanations for why, any number of which end without anyone else getting indicted.
Is there anybody reporting on this story who isn't part of the story? Next we'll hear that Kaus and Maguire have testified.
November 16, 2005
POLITICS: Rove on the Courts
A rare speech by Karl Rove, to the Federalist Society on the topic of the courts. Rove notes a familiar refrain in recounting the battle over the Alabama state courts:
It began in 1994, when Republican Perry Hooper challenged sitting chief justice and trial lawyer-favorite Sonny Hornsby. Hooper pulled off a stunning upset. Outspent, outworked, he won by 262 votes out of over 1.2 million votes cast. And then, the day after the election, several thousand absentee ballots mysteriously surfaced, none of them witnessed nor notarized, as required by Alabama law, and Sonny Hornsby tried to have them counted. It took a year of court battles before Hooper was finally seated.
November 9, 2005
POLITICS: Status Quo 6, Reform 0
At least among the six campaigns I paid any attention to yesterday - the Governor's races in NJ and Virginia, the Mayor's races in NY City and Detroit, and the referendum packages in California and Ohio - if there's any lesson to be drawn from yesterday's votes, it's one that conflicts with the apparent public mood: the voters chose the status quo and rejected calls for reform:
1. Incumbents and incumbent parties won. Virginia and NJ stayed in the same party hands. Incumbents were re-elected in NYC and Detroit.
2. Packages of reform-minded referenda, anchored by anti-gerrymandering efforts, were defeated in Ohio and California.
3. Longstanding concerns about corruption in the state-level New Jersey and California Democratic parties, the state-level Ohio GOP and the local government in Detroit were brushed aside by the voters. No wake-up calls were sent, except perhaps to the Virginia GOP to offer a choice, not an echo.
POLITICS: Ackerman Ducks The Question

You may recall my effort, in connection with the "porkbusters" campaign, to get my Congressman, Gary Ackerman, to commit to give back local pork-barrel transportation spending (including money for parking lots, sidewalks, bike racks and public parks in Queens) to help offset the cost of Hurricane Katrina. Well, yesterday I received his response, which is set forth in full in the extended entry. As you can see, Ackerman fails to even acknowledge the question; his response includes not a word about transportation funding. Instead, he scrolls through the usual hot buttons - Iraq, tax cuts, no-bid contracts, etc. - and appears to oppose any effort to cut any spending of any kind:
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Thank you for contacting me to express your concerns
about the federal response to the devastation caused by Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita. Like most Americans, I have been appalled by
the incompetence and the lack of preparedness that has resulted in
so much loss of life and property.
As time goes by, it becomes increasingly clear that the
Bush Administration and the Republican Congress are more
interested in pushing their ideological imperatives than in
rebuilding the Gulf Coast of the United States. Instead of focusing
single-mindedly on helping people, the Administration wasted
valuable time and energy defending presidential cronies in
positions of power, signing no-bid contracts with corporate
contributors, removing wage protections from federal contracts,
and proposing shanty-towns instead of reconstruction for hard-hit
low-income areas.
Even now, conservatives in Congress are ignoring the Gulf
Coast's pleas for additional federal aid while trying to use
reconstruction expenses to justify cuts to Medicaid, student loan
programs, federal housing assistance and food stamps. Their
precious tax cuts for millionaires, are, of course, off limits. The
budget can only be balanced, in this twisted world view, by
thrusting the burden on the middle class, and particularly, on the
poor.
I think it's disgraceful.
I will, of course, continue to do all that I can to fight
against these heartless policies for the benefit of the people of the
Gulf Coast and the entire United States. To be clear: We can do
better. There is no reason at all why FEMA shouldn't perform at
the levels seen during the 1990s, when professionals were in
charge, and there is no reason for spending hundreds of billions in
Iraq and giving short shrift to our own Gulf Coast.
I appreciate you taking the time to share your views with
me about this painful episode and ongoing problem for our nation.
Of course, if I can be of any further assistance, please do not
hesitate to contact me.
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October 28, 2005
POLITICS: The Hidden Hand
This is a bit too much of a political inside joke to post under a "baseball" heading, but the Weekly Standard sees the hidden influence of Leo Strauss and his secretive cabal in Ozzie Guillen's White Sox.
October 23, 2005
POLITICS: Trying to Hit a 5-Run Homer
Mickey Kaus notes that it is the wrong approach for Democrats, should there be indictments in the Valerie Plame case, to try to use the case to re-argue the entire case for war in Iraq rather than just stick to the basic charge of jeopardizing the CIA:
Shouldn't it be a general premise of Democratic politics that it's reality-based and not spin-based? And while Dems might get a majority of Americans to agree that the Iraq War was a bad move, they'd get about 95% to agree that compromising covert American agents is a bad move. Why not make the latter the issue?
It's not just that this would be a mistake, but that it's the exact same mistake they've made before: most notably in 1987 when the Democrats discovered the Reagan Administration doing something politically explosive and contrary to its stated principles - trading arms to Iran for hostages - and frittered away all the political benefits of this revelation by instead staging a huge fight over the Nicaraguan side of the Iran-Contra scandal, which to most of the general public amounted to the allegation that Reagan's people were going too far in fighting Communism in the Western Hemisphere. This was, of course, an issue on which the Dems had been whupped by Reagan in the past, and they were so eager to settle the score that they wound up getting a lot less mileage out of the scandal than they probably should have.
We may see a related mistake brewing in the Harriet Miers hearings - there have been rumblings that the hearings will turn into a rehash of the Ben Barnes/National Guard story, a mistake the Democrats just can't stop making.
October 20, 2005
POLITICS: Join The Swarm
For the record, I'm, with RedState, DailyKos and the rest in supporting the Coburn Amendment.
If there's enough of us, Patty Murray can't threaten us all.
October 19, 2005
POLITICS: The Legend of Dagger Chuck
The New York Sun mocks Chuck Schumer for overuse of a metaphor:
No sooner had [former] Senators [Connie] Mack and [John] Breaux unleashed their ideas on making the federal tax code more simple and fair than Senator Schumer unsheathed his rusty old dagger, describing the idea of eliminating the federal deduction for state and local taxes as "a dagger to the heart of the people of New York." Voters might be inclined to listen -- except for the fact that Mr. Schumer sees a dagger virtually everywhere he looks.
A 2003 plan for flexible work schedules instead of overtime? "A dagger to the heart of the middle class," Mr. Schumer said, according to the Associated Press. A 2002 plan by federal regulators to urge Wall Street firms to establish backup facilities outside New York City? A "dagger pointed at the heart of New York," Mr. Schumer said, according to the Daily News. High gas prices? "A dagger at the heart of our economy," Mr. Schumer said in 2000, according to the New York Times. A unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood would be "a dagger through the heart of the peace process," Mr. Schumer said in 2000, according to the Agence France Presse.
Hate crimes "put a dagger in the heart of what America is all about," Mr. Schumer said in 1999, according to USA Today. A proposal to change the federal transportation funding formula was "a dagger pointed at" New York and California, Mr. Schumer said in 1999, according to the Washington Post. School vouchers? "Daggers that plunge into the heart of what is the American way," Mr. Schumer said in May 1999, according to the New York Post. Cuts in federal student aid? "A dagger to New York's college students," Mr. Schumer told Newsday in 1995.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Mr. Schumer sees daggers more often than a four-eyed knife thrower looking through a kaleidoscope.
(Emphasis added). Via Taranto.
October 15, 2005
POLITICS: Don't Drink The Water
Responding to Hugh Hewitt's taunts about "Evian Flu" among conservative pundits, Ramesh Ponnuru writes:
[M]y impression is that the proportion of our population that consumes either wine or brie, or both together, has gone up since [1997] . . . Hasn't the insult lost its bite? I thought of this when I read a crack against elites that mentioned bottled water. It sure seems as though drinking bottled water has ceased to be an elite activity. Back in 1997, conservatives could mock latte towns--but you can find latte in any town you're in nowadays. Conclusion: We need some new put-downs. (Confession: I like brie and wine, have occasionally had a latte, and buy bottled water for my family--but that last point reflects the high lead content in D.C. water rather than a preference on my part.)
At least as to the bottled water thing, Ramesh is right on. Most of us have an instinctive belief that paying good money for water in a bottle is ridiculous. And yet, if you live in a city like New York or Washington (or Worcester, Mass., where I went to college and where the tap water was brown), where drinking the tap water is not a sane option, bottled water has become a necessity - and all the moreso after September 11 and especially after Katrina, when bottled water has become an emblem of disaster preparedness.
(As for wine, I believe recent surveys have shown that Americans as a whole now drink more wine than beer.)
October 10, 2005
POLITICS: The Stealth Strategy
I should have linked to this when it ran, but if you are pondering President Bush's objectives in nominating a Supreme Court Justice, you should definitely read the analysis offered by the always-incisive Jay Cost back in July.
October 2, 2005
POLITICS: Meeting His Targets
Heh.
POLITICS: Ackerman's Pork

Getting back to the original reason I was checking the