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Politics 2015 Archives

January 4, 2016
POLITICS: End of 2015

My last two essays of 2015 were just before Christmas:

RS: Against Despair: A Christmas Credo for Republicans

RS: What Would a Rubio Win Look Like?

On to 2016.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:47 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
December 18, 2015
POLITICS: Bomb Aladdin!

RS: PPP Polls Shows Why Issue Polling Is So Unreliable

clown car

One of the favorite shticks of Democrat pollster Public Policy Polling (PPP) is to ask questions designed to make Republican voters look bad. This kind of "troll polling" flatters all the usual sorts of people who love to laugh at what yokels the GOP's supporters are, and as yet no Republican-leaning pollster has gotten into the regular business of giving Democrats a taste of the same medicine. If the last few years have taught us anything, it's not to trust individual polls that can't be checked against a polling average, but by definition these are all one-off polls. But there's a deeper issue here that the latest PPP trolling question illustrates: that average Americans are far too trusting of pollsters, and the ability of pollsters to exploit that trust shows why polling on individual issues is untrustworthy.

Here's the latest poll question that has PPP's followers floating on a cloud of smug this morning:

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:30 PM | Politics 2015 • | Poll Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
December 16, 2015
POLITICS: Fifth Debate Analysis and Boyd Strategy Essay

My longest deep dive of the year, from the theories of John Boyd: Military Strategist Explains Why Donald Trump Leads - And How He Will Fail

In the LA Times: To understand Donald Trump, look to Europe

Debate Review: The Superstars Bleed

Pick Your Favorite Lindsey Graham Face

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:55 AM | History • | In Print • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 • | Writings Elsewhere
December 10, 2015
POLITICS/LAW: Up With Scalia, Down With Kasich

This Dumb, Dishonest Attack On Justice Scalia Takes The Cake

This One Statistic DESTROYS John Kasich's Presidential Campaign

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:31 PM | Law 2009-Present • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
December 9, 2015
POLITICS: Latest Essays Through Dec 8, 2015

The 2016 GOP Primary Calendar Is A Challenge For Ted Cruz

8 Ways This Facebook Meme Is Wrong About Treating Guns Like Abortions

Here's The Real Republican Voter Turnout Issue In 2016 (And The Democrats' Too)

Democrat Alan Grayson Goes Full Birther on Ted Cruz

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:15 AM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 26, 2015
POLITICS: Happy Thanksgiving, 2015!

Diebold Stole My Doobies! Stoners Blame "Stolen" Election

The Myth of "4 Million Conservative Voters Stayed Home in 2012"

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:25 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 20, 2015
POLITICS: Fear and Loathing in Hillaryland

Democrats Start To Show Early Signs of Panic About 2016

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:44 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 18, 2015
POLITICS: Aging Democrats

The Democrat Bench Is Shallow And Aging

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:31 AM | Politics 2015
POLITICS: The Democrat Bench Is Shallow And Aging

RS: The Democrat Bench Is Shallow And Aging

The Democrats' extensive losses in the 2010 and 2014 midterms (as well as other off-year elections in 2009, 2011, 2015 and the Governors races in 2012) have left their party hollowed out beneath the White House, which is one reason why the top two contenders in their presidential primary are a 68-year-old who arrived in Washington in 1993, and a 74-year-old who has never held a leadership position in Congress. But beyond the sheer numbers of losses in the Senate, House, Governorships, and state legislatures, there is also the fact that the GOP is building a strong, deep farm team while the Democrats are aging and not replacing their leaders with much in the way of new blood.

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:29 AM | Politics 2015
November 16, 2015
POLITICS: What Conservatism Is

Conservatism's Essential Element Is Experience

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:59 PM | Politics 2015
POLITICS: Jindal for President

Conservative Voters Should Give Bobby Jindal A Chance

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:54 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 4, 2015
BLOG/POLITICS: My Latest, 10/6/15-11/3/15

The Obama Administration Goes Big On Extraordinary Rendition

Bobby Jindal's Ambitious Tax Plan

Should House Republicans Draft Paul Ryan To Be Speaker?

Paul Ryan Uses His Leverage To Drive A Hard Bargain

Donald Trump Tries To Backtrack After Insulting Iowa Voters As Brain-Damaged Corn-Huffers

How and Why Ronald Reagan Won

Previewing The GOP Presidential Primary Calendar

Hillary Clinton Embraces Obama's Immigration Policy and Contempt for Congress

Seven Questions About Matt Bevin's Win In Kentucky

Posted by Baseball Crank at 2:07 PM | Blog 2006-Present • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
September 24, 2015
POLITICS: Rubio on "Amnesty"

Marco Rubio on "Amnesty": Let's Take Care of Everything Else First

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:19 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
September 17, 2015
POLITICS/LAW: My Latest, 9/17/15

Syrian Refugees: Arm Them, Train Them, And Send Them Back

This Was Not A Good Debate For Jeb Bush and John Kasich

The Supreme Court Probably Isn't Done With Obamacare Litigation

Posted by Baseball Crank at 8:40 PM | Law 2009-Present • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 • | War 2007-Present
September 4, 2015
POLITICS/LAW: Latest Roundup

Bobby Jindal and the Easily Forgotten Lessons of Hurricane Katrina

Donald Trump Shows Why Money In Politics Is A Good Thing

Go Back To Your Day Job, Lindsey Graham

How The Supreme Court Created Kim Davis

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:44 AM | Hurricane Katrina • | Law 2009-Present • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
August 13, 2015
POLITICS: Trumpathon

My two most recent posts at RedState:

1. My quick reaction to the first debate (it seems from post-debate polling that many viewers disagreed with me about Ben Carson, who I thought had a very weak debate but who finished strong.

2. Laura Ingraham Gets Punked By Donald Trump, on the recklessness of conservative talk radio in boosting Donald Trump.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:01 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 | Comments (3)
July 24, 2015
POLITICS/HISTORY: Connecticut Democrats Erase Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson From Their History

At RedState: Connecticut Democrats Erase Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson From Their History

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:29 AM | History • | Politics 2015
LAW/POLITICS: King v Burwell

I forgot to add this one the last time I updated here - I didn't get around to writing up a full analysis of the King v Burwell decision and its many glaring flaws, but I did put together a Storify essay from my Tweets.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:21 AM | Law 2009-Present • | Politics 2015
July 10, 2015
BLOG: Welcome Back, Blog!

I've been neglecting this blog rather badly for altogether too long - the archives say I haven't posted here since September 21, 2014. I've been busy in the interim on Twitter, of course, and publishing elsewhere. I probably need to post archived versions of some of those posts here. For now: links.

I will start with The Weekly Standard, where I have this issue's cover story, just posted today: Giving Thomas His Due, on Justice Thomas' opinions over the past year and what they tell us about his philosophy.

The Federalist

Then there's The Federalist, where I tend to post my longer essays these days. I ran a lengthy 5-part essay prior to the Obergefell decision, "Can Gays And Christians Coexist In America?". Part I looked at the Biblical reasons why Christians believe in one-man-one-woman-for-life marriage. Part II looked at the history of Catholicism and other Biblical Christianity in the battles over slavery and Jim Crow. Part III looked at the Christian concept of scandal and the battle between liberty-based and equality-based views of "LGBT rights." Part IV looked at the legal arguments over the rational basis for distinguishing between opposite-sex and same-sex marriage. And Part V traced possible ways forward for coexistence post-Obergefell, which admittedly are not looking especially promising at the moment.

The First Principle Of U.S. Foreign Policy looked at various approaches to our foreign policy.

Others from the fall, including some of my poll-analysis posts:

The Ferguson Riots Are Nothing Like The Original Tea Party Protests

Polling Postmortem: The Best And Worst Senate Polls Of 2014 (I keep meaning to run the companion piece on the Governors races before 2016 polling heats up).

Do Democrats Always Win Close Statewide Elections? (covers the 1998-2013 elections; I should update this with 2014 results).

Listening To President Obama's Ebola Advice Could Get People Killed

And of course, if you missed it last time, my essay on how History Is Not On The Democrats' Side In 2016 is still an important read on the coming election, undoubtedly the most significant piece I will write on the 2016 election.

RedState

The Rise & Fall of the Confederate Flag in South Carolina - I wrote this a few weeks back, but it's very relevant to today's news.

Reading Tea Leaves on the 2015 Supreme Court Term - Basically just some educated speculation on who would write what and when, which ended up having mixed results.

Democratic Party Now Literally Selling Hate - a Father's Day gift post!

Bernie Sanders, Deodorant and Diversity - a meditation on central planning and markets.

Marco Rubio Recounts The History of Obama’s Treatment of Israel - quick hit on a great Rubio floor speech. Rubio isn't my first choice in 2016, but he's done nothing but impress this year.

From the fall:

2014 and Republican Morale - a GOP victory lap and a reflection on what it meant.

The Breakers Broke: A Look Back At The Fall 2014 Polls - A personal victory lap on my 2014 poll analysis and how it relates to the polling controversies of 2012.

The 2014 Polls And The 2012 Exit Polls - An earlier look at the same topic and at some specific issues with exit polling and poll methodology.

Nobody at Vox.com Has Read The Fourteenth Amendment

BREAKING: Supreme Court Takes Obamacare Subsidies Case (on King v Burwell).

First Cut: 7 Polling and Elections Lessons From 2014 (Immediate 2014 election aftermath)

Why I Voted Yes On Question 1 (NY) (Election Day post on a NY ballot initiative)

Final Senate Breakers & Governors Breakers Report November 3, 2014

Senate Breakers Report October 30, 2014

Governors Breakers Report October 30, 2014

A Sad and Desperate Attack on Chris Christie - Actually a fairly deep dive on voter fraud controversies.

Governors Breakers Report October 22, 2014

Senate Breakers Report October 21, 2014

Senate and Governors Breakers Report October 10, 2014

Senate Breakers Report and Governors Breakers Report: Oct 1

Introducing The Senate Breakers Report - September 26, 2014, the start of my Fall 2014 stretch drive when I started getting too busy to cross-post here.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:22 PM | Blog 2006-Present • | In Print • | Law 2009-Present • | Politics 2014 • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis • | Writings Elsewhere
August 8, 2014
POLITICS/LAW: Recent Posts Roundup

Now that my posts are single-sourced to RedState and The Federalist (for Google/traffic reasons), I've been forgetting to link to them all here. A roundup of my latest:

At RedState:

Halbig's Critics Hoist By Their Own Petards

Obama Peddles Impeachment Conspiracy Theories To Raise Money

John McCain on the Decline & Fall of the United States Senate

Josh Marshall & TPM Promise a "BOOM," Deliver A Dud

Obama Administration Lied About Insurance Company Bailouts

At the Federalist, a cross-posted version of the Obamacare bailouts piece.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:05 PM | Blog 2006-Present • | Law 2009-Present • | Politics 2014 • | Politics 2015
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