Jay Cost, who seems to be one of the most optimistic poll-readers these days, in an item posted yesterday:
Present Probability that Bush will win the Electoral College: 96.36% (This is the probability that Bush wins FL and IA and WI or OH. Thus, we can be 96.36% confident that Bush would receive a minimum of either 271 EVs or 281 EVs).
[snip]
Right now the EV math is looking awfully tough for Kerry. He is definitely behind in FL, IA and, though I do not cover it here, NM. This gives Bush a minimum of 266 EVs. Plus, Bush is likely leading in OH and WI — and I think Kerry will be unable to hold MN when all is said and done. The word on the ground is that BC04’s organization in MN is a sight to behold. The big question on my mind right now is not whether Bush gets to 269, but whether he breaks 300 (which he would do if he carries FL, IA, NM, WI, OH and MN — that would be 306).
Personally, I continue to believe that Florida, not Ohio, is the real key right now, because winning Florida gives Bush (or, to a lesser extent, Kerry) multiple ways to win, while losing Florida leaves Bush with almost no margin for error and Kerry with none.
I really don’t know what’s going to happen, but if you gave me 19-to-1 odds on a Kerry win, I’d take it. Oh, and thanks for the list of poll-closing times, I was looking for that.