High Quality Starts, Part II

Following up on my earlier post on High Quality Starts, here’s the rest of the post: a look at HQS as a percentage of starts, as well as a percentage of wins (unsurprisingly, for good pitchers these constitute an outsize component of wins).
Now, read this chart with caution. First of all, guys who spent a lot of years in relief will have relief wins – Kenny Rogers is last on the list with HQS representing just 37.9% of his wins, and while that accurately reflects that Rogers generally needed help to win, it’s a little exaggerated by his time as a reliever. Then again, Sandy Koufax tops the list with 73.3% of his wins being HQS, despite having worked heavily in relief for much of the late 1950s.
Second, here is where you really see the differences in era – Koufax and Rogers are pretty much at the far poles here, but there’s a very large difference between the Sixties and the 00s, between Dodger Stadium and Arlington.
Third, bear in mind that some guys here – e.g., Pete Alexander – pitched parts of their careers before 1920 (1920 was the last year of Alexander’s prime).
That said, I tip my hat to the guy who topped even Koufax for percentage of his starts that were HQS: Jim Palmer, who came the closest to notching a HQS in half his career starts. And the guy who was the first real surprise among the immortals atop the list, Mel Stottlemyre. Maddux rated lower than I’d expected, but he did start a huge number of games, many of them late in his career after he’d stopped really being Greg Maddux.
Note the list of 200-game winners who turned in a High Quality Start in less than a third of their career starts: Jamie Moyer, Jesse Haines, David Wells, Herb Pennock (not counting the 61 starts Pennock made before 1920), Bobo Newsom, Andy Pettitte, Red Ruffing, Mel Harder, Burleigh Grimes, Ted Lyons, Waite Hoyt, Charlie Hough, Charlie Root, Jim Kaat, Chuck Finley, Joe Niekro and Jerry Reuss. Mostly this is a list of bad Hall of Famers, but other than Kaat (who has no business in a Hall discussion despite a high career win total), Niekro and Reuss, they’re also all from high-scoring eras. I’ll have to revisit later the question of Pettitte as a deserving Hall of Famer.
(Tommy John and Bert Blyleven both come in the 36% area).
Chart below the fold.

Pitcher HQS HQW GS W HQ/GS HQ/W
Jim Palmer 248 191 521 268 47.6% 71.3%
Sandy Koufax 146 121 314 165 46.5% 73.3%
Tom Seaver 295 217 647 311 45.6% 69.8%
Bob Gibson 217 176 482 251 45.0% 70.1%
Mel Stottlemyre 157 108 356 164 44.1% 65.9%
Warren Spahn 292 249 665 363 43.9% 68.6%
Whitey Ford 192 154 438 236 43.8% 65.3%
Roger Clemens 308 234 707 354 43.6% 66.1%
Bob Veale 111 75 255 120 43.5% 62.5%
Dizzy Dean 100 91 230 150 43.5% 60.7%
Johan Santana 111 76 258 131 43.0% 58.0%
Bob Feller 208 177 484 266 43.0% 66.5%
Pedro Martinez 175 129 409 219 42.8% 58.9%
Andy Messersmith 126 88 295 130 42.7% 67.7%
Tim Hudson 142 104 333 161 42.6% 64.6%
Harry Brecheen 102 82 240 133 42.5% 61.7%
Don Drysdale 196 138 465 209 42.2% 66.0%
Pete Alexander 123 97 293 165 42.0% 58.8%
Roy Halladay 129 104 311 162 41.5% 64.2%
Allie Reynolds 128 114 309 182 41.4% 62.6%
Denny McLain 109 91 264 131 41.3% 69.5%
Don Sutton 310 221 756 324 41.0% 68.2%
Hal Newhouser 152 124 374 207 40.6% 59.9%
Juan Marichal 185 155 457 243 40.5% 63.8%
Dave McNally 160 120 396 184 40.4% 65.2%
Curt Schilling 176 140 436 216 40.4% 64.8%
Bob Lemon 141 124 350 207 40.3% 59.9%
Lon Warneke 138 118 343 192 40.2% 61.5%
Carl Hubbell 174 149 433 253 40.2% 58.9%
Eddie Lopat 127 111 318 166 39.9% 66.9%
Mike Cuellar 151 120 379 185 39.8% 64.9%
Larry Dierker 131 95 329 139 39.8% 68.3%
Steve Carlton 282 222 709 329 39.8% 67.5%
Gaylord Perry 274 207 690 314 39.7% 65.9%
Jim Bunning 206 142 519 224 39.7% 63.4%
Randy Johnson 239 184 603 303 39.6% 60.7%
Steve Rogers 155 108 393 158 39.4% 68.4%
David Cone 164 121 419 194 39.1% 62.4%
Kevin Brown 186 132 476 211 39.1% 62.6%
Sam McDowell 135 89 346 141 39.0% 63.1%
Robin Roberts 236 166 609 286 38.8% 58.0%
Fergie Jenkins 229 174 594 284 38.6% 61.3%
Catfish Hunter 183 144 476 224 38.4% 64.3%
Greg Maddux 284 192 740 355 38.4% 54.1%
Jon Matlack 122 82 318 125 38.4% 65.6%
Roy Oswalt 112 83 294 144 38.1% 57.6%
Bret Saberhagen 141 99 371 167 38.0% 59.3%
Mike Scott 121 83 319 124 37.9% 66.9%
Early Wynn 232 197 612 300 37.9% 65.7%
Nolan Ryan 292 210 773 324 37.8% 64.8%
Ron Guidry 122 100 323 170 37.8% 58.8%
Dwight Gooden 154 110 410 194 37.6% 56.7%
Mike Mussina 201 156 536 270 37.5% 57.8%
Mickey Lolich 186 139 496 217 37.5% 64.1%
Rudy May 135 96 360 152 37.5% 63.2%
Ray Culp 100 75 268 122 37.3% 61.5%
Lefty Grove 170 145 457 300 37.2% 48.3%
Claude Osteen 181 120 488 196 37.1% 61.2%
Dazzy Vance 127 111 345 197 36.8% 56.3%
Dean Chance 108 77 294 128 36.7% 60.2%
Tommy John 257 181 700 288 36.7% 62.8%
Mike Garcia 103 88 281 142 36.7% 62.0%
Phil Niekro 262 194 716 318 36.6% 61.0%
Billy Pierce 158 129 432 211 36.6% 61.1%
Luis Tiant 177 139 484 229 36.6% 60.7%
Bucky Walters 145 124 398 198 36.4% 62.6%
Bill Singer 112 78 308 118 36.4% 66.1%
Milt Pappas 169 135 465 209 36.3% 64.6%
Bob Buhl 134 102 369 166 36.3% 61.4%
Jerry Koosman 191 141 527 222 36.2% 63.5%
Jim Perry 162 125 447 215 36.2% 58.1%
Joe Horlen 105 67 290 116 36.2% 57.8%
Bert Blyleven 248 181 685 287 36.2% 63.1%
John Smoltz 174 120 481 213 36.2% 56.3%
Vida Blue 171 130 473 209 36.2% 62.2%
Larry French 138 116 383 197 36.0% 58.9%
Dizzy Trout 116 96 322 170 36.0% 56.5%
Virgil Trucks 118 97 328 177 36.0% 54.8%
Al Downing 114 78 317 123 36.0% 63.4%
CC Sabathia 112 85 313 151 35.8% 56.3%
Doug Drabek 138 100 387 155 35.7% 64.5%
Burt Hooton 134 87 377 151 35.5% 57.6%
Bob Rush 114 75 321 127 35.5% 59.1%
Paul Derringer 158 126 445 223 35.5% 56.5%
Chris Short 109 75 308 135 35.4% 55.6%
Rick Reuschel 187 123 529 214 35.3% 57.5%
Claude Passeau 117 98 331 162 35.3% 60.5%
Charlie Leibrandt 122 91 346 140 35.3% 65.0%
Dennis Martinez 198 130 562 245 35.2% 53.1%
John Denny 113 80 322 123 35.1% 65.0%
Hal Schumacher 115 84 329 158 35.0% 53.2%
Bob Friend 173 126 497 197 34.8% 64.0%
Ross Grimsley 102 79 295 124 34.6% 63.7%
Mark Buehrle 112 87 324 145 34.6% 60.0%
Fritz Peterson 114 80 330 133 34.5% 60.2%
Jack Morris 182 142 527 254 34.5% 55.9%
Ken Holtzman 141 104 410 174 34.4% 59.8%
Frank Viola 144 115 420 176 34.3% 65.3%
Dave Stieb 141 104 412 176 34.2% 59.1%
Dutch Leonard 128 96 375 191 34.1% 50.3%
Larry Jackson 146 107 429 194 34.0% 55.2%
Jimmy Key 132 94 389 186 33.9% 50.5%
Dennis Leonard 102 82 302 144 33.8% 56.9%
Dock Ellis 107 81 317 138 33.8% 58.7%
Lefty Gomez 108 101 320 189 33.8% 53.4%
Tom Glavine 229 161 682 305 33.6% 52.8%
Bob Welch 155 117 462 211 33.5% 55.5%
Curt Simmons 155 117 462 193 33.5% 60.6%
Dennis Eckersley 121 88 361 197 33.5% 44.7%
Lew Burdette 125 99 373 203 33.5% 48.8%
Bill Gullickson 130 92 390 162 33.3% 56.8%
Bill Lee 126 101 379 169 33.2% 59.8%
Ron Darling 121 74 364 136 33.2% 54.4%
Freddie Fitzsimmons 141 118 425 217 33.2% 54.4%
Brad Radke 125 92 377 148 33.2% 62.2%
Tommy Bridges 120 98 362 194 33.1% 50.5%
Frank Tanana 204 140 616 240 33.1% 58.3%
Guy Bush 102 79 308 176 33.1% 44.9%
Orel Hershiser 154 109 466 204 33.0% 53.4%
Sonny Siebert 101 68 307 140 32.9% 48.6%
Eppa Rixey 128 106 391 190 32.7% 55.8%
Tom Candiotti 134 90 410 151 32.7% 59.6%
Fernando Valenzuela 138 103 424 173 32.5% 59.5%
Jerry Reuss 178 140 547 220 32.5% 63.6%
Bruce Hurst 116 83 359 145 32.3% 57.2%
Mark Langston 138 101 428 179 32.2% 56.4%
Joe Niekro 161 115 500 221 32.2% 52.0%
Rick Rhoden 122 79 380 151 32.1% 52.3%
Mike Flanagan 129 106 404 167 31.9% 63.5%
Chuck Finley 149 112 467 200 31.9% 56.0%
Vern Law 116 88 364 162 31.9% 54.3%
Mike McCormick 106 80 333 134 31.8% 59.7%
Red Faber 111 90 349 172 31.8% 52.3%
Stan Bahnsen 104 76 327 146 31.8% 52.1%
Dolf Luque 110 76 346 178 31.8% 42.7%
Tim Belcher 118 80 373 146 31.6% 54.8%
Jim Kaat 197 153 625 283 31.5% 54.1%
Johnny Podres 107 82 340 148 31.5% 55.4%
Charlie Root 107 82 341 201 31.4% 40.8%
Charlie Hough 138 91 440 216 31.4% 42.1%
Ted Lyons 151 135 484 260 31.2% 51.9%
John Candelaria 111 82 356 177 31.2% 46.3%
Waite Hoyt 129 110 414 233 31.2% 47.2%
Doyle Alexander 144 99 464 194 31.0% 51.0%
Dave Stewart 108 83 348 168 31.0% 49.4%
Rick Wise 141 100 455 188 31.0% 53.2%
Murry Dickson 104 87 338 172 30.8% 50.6%
Burleigh Grimes 130 110 424 236 30.7% 46.6%
Andy Benes 118 78 387 155 30.5% 50.3%
Mel Harder 132 111 433 223 30.5% 49.8%
Mike Hampton 108 82 355 148 30.4% 55.4%
Bob Knepper 125 89 413 146 30.3% 61.0%
Kevin Tapani 107 80 354 143 30.2% 55.9%
Darryl Kile 100 68 331 133 30.2% 51.1%
Jim Lonborg 111 87 368 157 30.2% 55.4%
Red Ruffing 162 142 538 273 30.1% 52.0%
Livan Hernandez 131 94 436 164 30.0% 57.3%
Andy Pettitte 143 113 476 240 30.0% 47.1%
Mike Krukow 106 76 355 124 29.9% 61.3%
Bobo Newsom 144 109 483 211 29.8% 51.7%
Sad Sam Jones 126 103 425 197 29.6% 52.3%
Kevin Appier 119 77 402 169 29.6% 45.6%
Javier Vazquez 120 82 406 151 29.6% 54.3%
Joe Coleman 100 69 340 142 29.4% 48.6%
Bob Forsch 124 81 422 168 29.4% 48.2%
Rick Sutcliffe 115 91 392 171 29.3% 53.2%
Herb Pennock 105 87 358 203 29.3% 42.9%
David Wells 143 116 489 239 29.2% 48.5%
Jesse Haines 112 98 386 210 29.0% 46.7%
Camilo Pascual 117 89 404 174 29.0% 51.1%
Paul Splittorff 113 83 392 166 28.8% 50.0%
Tom Zachary 115 91 399 183 28.8% 49.7%
George Uhle 102 93 356 190 28.7% 48.9%
Kevin Gross 104 71 368 142 28.3% 50.0%
Jim Slaton 100 66 360 151 27.8% 43.7%
Jim Clancy 105 79 381 140 27.6% 56.4%
Al Leiter 103 71 382 162 27.0% 43.8%
Jamie Moyer 169 115 628 267 26.9% 43.1%
Mike Torrez 121 93 458 185 26.4% 50.3%
John Burkett 111 79 423 166 26.2% 47.6%
Kevin Millwood 102 72 398 157 25.6% 45.9%
Scott Sanderson 103 68 407 163 25.3% 41.7%
Tim Wakefield 109 85 437 192 24.9% 44.3%
Mike Morgan 102 63 411 141 24.8% 44.7%
Steve Trachsel 102 62 417 143 24.5% 43.4%
Mike Moore 107 82 440 161 24.3% 50.9%
Kenny Rogers 113 83 474 219 23.8% 37.9%
Earl Whitehill 102 88 473 218 21.6% 40.4%

6 thoughts on “High Quality Starts, Part II”

  1. Perfect! Just what I was looking for.
    So Jim Palmer has the highest % of HQS per starts in Major League Baseball history? Almost 50% of his starts were HQS! A full 10% more than famous pitchers like Nolan Ryan (37.8)%
    Bob Veale (one of my favorite Pirates) is 9th! WOW!
    And of the present day pitchers, Johann Santana clocks in at 11th on the list!
    I like this metric as a mean to identify the truly standout SPs.
    Thansk!

  2. It’s especially impressive to see how high Spahn, Clemens and particularly Seaver rank on this list given that they each started over 600 games (700 in Clemens’ case). Sutton drops down a bit but is still doing quite well for a guy who is third on the all time starts list.

  3. Had Mel Stottlemyre played in amost any other era (free agency or when the Yankees were good) instead of the mid-to-late 60s, he’d be a HOFer. With Mantle fading quickly after ’64, he was arguably the best player on those teams.

  4. Very interesting list. I agree that Mel Stottlemyre’s playing career is under-valued.
    OK. I’ll bite. What’s your beef with Kaat? I remember seeing him pitch in the mid-60’s and thinking he was one of the better pitchers in the AL. Also, excpet for that stretch, the teams for which he played were not exceptional.

  5. The AL had few outstanding starters in the mid-60s, so for the decade, yeah, he’s in there with McDowell.
    First, Kaat was never especially dominant in his prime, nor was he unusually consistent or durable to balance that. Aside from 1972, when he missed half the season, his best ERA+ was 131 in 1966. Yes, he would have won the Cy that year if they’d given one for the AL, but I’m pretty sure there are no pitchers in the Hall who were never 40% better than the league in their best season.
    Second, and relatedly, he had a lot of his best years in very pitcher-friendly environs, especially eras when starting pitchers threw a ton of innings. His career #s are not comparable to John, let alone Blyleven, when you adjust for context – John was a 20-game winner and workhorse in the late 70s AL, Blyleven racked up a lot of his wins and innings in the AL in the 80s. A 3.45 career ERA for a guy who threw the bulk of his career in the 60s and early 70s is not impressive.
    And his career win total is padded by a bunch of mediocre years – from age 37-44 he was 48-50 with a 4.08 ERA and 2 saves (ERA+ 92), mostly as a spot starter/middle reliever.

  6. I hear you with respect to the longevity-producing-inflated-stats” issue.
    Granted that it is only one year, but Kaat was pretty dominant in 1966. He led the league in wins, innings pitched, starts, complete games, strikeouts to walks ratio, and won the 5th of 16 consecutive gold gloves. I looked at the career stats comparison at baseball reference between Kaat and John and they are almost identical.
    Jim Kaat is, at best, a borderline Hall of Famer, but he merits a discussion.
    I was eating at a hotel restaurant in St. Louis during Frank Robinson’s first year as manager of the Nationals (terrific job, by the way) and he was at an adjacent table. His dinner companion asked the waiter if he knew who Frank was. When the waiter said he didn’t, the companion introduced him. The waiter mis-heard because he kept callinghim “Mr. Frankie.” It was both funny because of the looks Robinson gave him and sad that such a great player and man wasn’t recognized.

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