Wieters and PECOTA

David Pinto looks at the suddenly pessimistic PECOTA projection for Matt Wieters. But as the Hardball Times’ Colin Wyers explained back in the spring of 2009, it was PECOTA that artificially inflated expectations of Wieters’ immediate success in the first place, because the model used bad adjustments for the two minor leagues he played in in 2008.
Even the best formulas are subject to the old “garbage in, garbage out” rule. Wieters remains a promising young player, and it’s not that unusual for a third-year player to bust out after taking a step backwards. That said, clearly his performance last season makes it less likely that he will become a Piazza-style dominant offensive force. Perhaps the Orioles’ most important task as an organization this season is to make sure Wieters isn’t dragged down by the disarray around him. Having Buck Showalter’s energetic and competent management and the positive veteran role model of Derrek Lee may help (although Wieters hit just .255/.313/.389 after Showalter took over last season).

4 thoughts on “Wieters and PECOTA”

  1. Wieters scares the bejeezus out of me. Look at guys like Varitek and Posada. They weren’t even in the Bigs until they were around 25. Posada didn’t start to hit until he was 28. Varitek suffered an injury after a good year at 26 and his best offensive stretch was from age 31-33. Wieters is big, athletic, sharp and if the Orioles haven’t completely Alex Gordon-ed him he should be a very productive guy. Maybe not Piazza or I-Rod or Mauer but certainly a guy any team would love to have both behind and at the plate.

  2. And Pudge and Mauer took some time to reach their offensive potential too. So did Gary Carter.
    Catchers are hard, because sometimes they get hurt before they can develop. And sometimes they’re Butch Wynegar. But if Wieters is healthy, he’s still not a bad bet.

  3. You mean when the best season of a 13 year career happens when you’re 20? Man, they just killed talented kids back in the day, huh? Butch and Alvin Adams should get a team of “my rookie year was my best year even though I was around for a long time” guys together. Garry Templeton could be on it too.

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