2011 AL Central EWSL Report

Part 3 of my preseason “previews” is the AL Central; this is the third of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. I’ve also resurrected for this season the team ages, which are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior previews: the AL West & AL East.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Chicago White Sox
Raw EWSL: 238.17 (93 W)
Adjusted: 253.34 (98 W)
Age-Adj.: 230.98 (90 W)
WS Age: 30.05
2011 W-L: 90-72

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 34 AJ Pierzynski 11 9
1B 35 Paul Konerko 22 16
2B 24 Gordon Beckham# 10 15
SS 29 Alexei Ramirez 18 17
3B 24 Brent Morel+ 0 11
RF 28 Carlos Quentin 14 14
CF 30 Alex Rios 16 14
LF 33 Juan Pierre 13 11
DH 31 Adam Dunn 21 17
C2 35 Ramon Castro 5 4
INF 29 Mark Teahen 6 6
OF 26 Lastings Milledge 8 9
13 44 Omar Vizquel 6 3
SP1 26 John Danks 16 17
SP2 32 Mark Buehrle 14 11
SP3 28 Gavin Floyd 13 12
SP4 27 Edwin Jackson 12 11
SP5 30 Jake Peavy 7 6
RP1 34 Matt Thornton 12 9
RP2 22 Chris Sale* 3 6
RP3 29 Jesse Crain 5 4
RP4 29 Tony Pena 5 4
RP5 33 Will Ohman 3 2

Subjective Adjustments: None. As the minimal age adjustments indicate, this is the most established-talent, set-lineup team in the division. Milledge, however, is presently in AAA.
Also on Hand: Position players – Brent Lillibridge, Dayan Vicideo, Tyler Flowers.
Pitchers – Sergio Santos, Jeff Gray, Phil Humber, Gregory Infante.
Analysis: The White Sox are back again with a power-backed lineup and their characteristically stolid starting rotation. If the older guys in the lineup (Konerko, Pierzynski) don’t break down, they should be in the hunt all year, but they’re unlikely to blow the doors off the division.
Minnesota Twins
Raw EWSL: 216.17 (85 W)
Adjusted: 236.87 (92 W)
Age-Adj.: 222.85 (88 W)
Subj. Adj.: 219.85 (87 W)
WS Age: 29.13
2011 W-L: 87-75

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 28 Joe Mauer 29 30
1B 30 Justin Morneau 19 17
2B 26 Tsuyoshi Niskioka+ 0 11
SS 26 Alexi Casilla 6 6
3B 26 Danny Valencia* 6 13
RF 29 Jason Kubel 14 14
CF 27 Denard Span 20 20
LF 25 Delmon Young 16 19
DH 40 Jim Thome 14 7
C2 27 Drew Butera* 2 3
INF 29 Matt Tolbert 4 4
OF 32 Michael Cuddyer 14 11
13 30 Jason Repko 1 1
SP1 27 Francisco Liriano 8 8
SP2 35 Carl Pavano 10 8
SP3 28 Brian Duensing# 9 10
SP4 29 Scott Baker 10 9
SP5 29 Nick Blackburn 7 6
RP1 36 Joe Nathan 8 7
RP2 27 Matt Capps 8 8
RP3 26 Jose Mijares# 4 5
RP4 27 Kevin Slowey 7 7
RP5 26 Jeff Manship# 1 1

Subjective Adjustments: I docked Nishioka 3 Win Shares for his early season leg fracture, cutting him down to 8.
Also on Hand: Position players – Ben Revere, Luke Hughes.
Pitchers – Glen Perkins, Anthony Slama, Dusty Hughes.
Analysis: Slowey, Baker and Blackurn have all seen their stock fall, and Liriano’s off to a bad start. Morneau’s healthy but not hitting yet, and Mauer’s not healthy. And I didn’t realize how old Nathan is. And can Thome repeat last year’s rejuvenation? A lot of question marks here.
Detroit Tigers
Raw EWSL: 190.33 (77 W)
Adjusted: 222.86 (88 W)
Age-Adj.: 213.96 (85 W)
WS Age: 28.97
2011 W-L: 85-77

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 24 Alex Avila# 5 7
1B 28 Miguel Cabrera 27 27
2B 28 Will Rhymes* 3 6
SS 29 Jhonny Peralta 15 14
3B 34 Brandon Inge 13 11
RF 37 Magglio Ordonez 13 8
CF 24 Austin Jackson* 9 23
LF 30 Ryan Raburn 9 8
DH 32 Victor Martinez 17 13
C2 26 Casper Wells* 2 4
INF 31 Don Kelly* 3 4
OF 26 Brennan Boesch* 6 12
13 35 Carlos Guillen 7 5
SP1 28 Justin Verlander 17 16
SP2 26 Max Scherzer 10 11
SP3 22 Rick Porcello# 7 11
SP4 33 Brad Penny 4 3
SP5 28 Phil Coke 5 5
RP1 31 Jose Valverde 11 9
RP2 33 Joaquin Benoit 5 3
RP3 24 Brayan Villereal+ 0 5
RP4 24 Ryan Perry# 4 5
RP5 33 Brad Thomas* 3 4

Subjective Adjustments: None, although Guillen seems unlikely to contribute much. Casper Wells is obviously not a backup catcher; that’s Victor Martinez, so I just threw Wells into that roster slot. As did the Tigers.
Also on Hand: Position players – Scott Sizemore.
Pitchers – Joel Zumaya, who is facing the dreaded Dr. Andrews. Daniel Schlereth, Enrique Gonzalez.
Analysis: I’m not that high on the Tigers this season. Cabrera seems unlikely to repeat last year’s trouble-free season, Peralta is a serious defensive question mark, and Porcello, the back of the rotation and the bullpen are wobbly. On the upside, maybe this will be the year Scherzer puts it all together.
Cleveland Indians
Raw EWSL: 136.50 (59 W)
Adjusted: 152.40 (64 W)
Age-Adj.: 152.39 (64 W)
WS Age: 28.20
2011 W-L: 64-98

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 25 Carlos Santana* 4 8
1B 26 Matt LaPorta# 4 5
2B 36 Orlando Cabrera 12 9
SS 25 Asdrubal Cabrera 13 15
3B 31 Jack Hannahan 2 2
RF 28 Shin-Soo Choo 24 24
CF 28 Grady Sizemore 9 9
LF 24 Michael Brantley# 4 5
DH 34 Travis Hafner 9 7
C2 25 Lou Marson* 3 6
INF 26 Jason Donald* 3 6
OF 31 Austin Kearns 6 5
13 31 Shelley Duncan 3 3
SP1 27 Fausto Carmona 7 6
SP2 26 Justin Masterson 5 6
SP3 24 Carlos Carrasco# 2 2
SP4 27 Mitch Talbot* 3 5
SP5 26 Josh Tomlin* 2 4
RP1 25 Chris Perez 8 9
RP2 27 Tony Sipp# 3 3
RP3 29 Rafael Perez 4 4
RP4 33 Chad Durbin 5 3
RP5 27 Joe Smith 3 3

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Travis Buck, Trevor Crowe (on the 60-day DL at present), Adam Everett, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis. Donald is also on the DL.
Pitchers – Vinnie Pestano, Justin Germano, Frank Herrmann, Alex White, Jeanmar Gomez.
Analysis: It’s obviously easier to say this after their 11-4 start, but there are plenty of places for the Indians to improve on their EWSL, from a recovery by Sizemore (I’m skeptical, since he had the Carlos Beltran surgery, but he’s younger than Beltran) to guys like Santana and LaPorta providing a full season’s production to the young pitchers stepping up. But in the early season enthusiasm, don’t lose sight of how far this team has to come from its proven, established major league performance levels if it’s going to have a winning record.
Kansas City Royals
Raw EWSL: 129.83 (57 W)
Adjusted: 139.90 (60 W)
Age-Adj.: 139.02 (60 W)
Subj. Adj: 142.02 (61 W)
WS Age: 27.74
2011 W-L: 61-101

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 37 Jason Kendall 10 6
1B 27 Kila Ka’aihue* 1 1
2B 27 Chris Getz# 5 7
SS 24 Alcides Escobar# 7 11
3B 29 Wilson Betemit 6 6
RF 27 Jeff Francouer 7 8
CF 26 Melky Cabrera 10 10
LF 27 Alex Gordon 5 5
DH 25 Billy Butler 17 21
C2 35 Matt Treanor 2 2
INF 30 Mike Aviles 9 8
OF 29 Mitch Maier 9 8
13 29 Brayan Pena 3 3
SP1 27 Kyle Davies 5 4
SP2 30 Jeff Francis 3 2
SP3 27 Luke Hochevar 3 3
SP4 34 Bruce Chen 5 4
SP5 24 Vin Mazzaro# 3 4
RP1 27 Joakim Soria 14 13
RP2 29 Robinson Tejeda 5 4
RP3 23 Sean O’Sullivan# 2 2
RP4 21 Tim Collins+ 0 5
RP5 25 Blake Wood* 1 2

Subjective Adjustments: I marked up Kila Ka’aihue from 1 to 4 Win Shares, which is probably pretty conservative for a guy who failed miserably last year, but he should get a much longer audition this season.
Also on Hand: Position players – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas – basically, the next generation of prospects.
Pitchers – Kanekoa Texeira, Jeremy Jeffress, Nathan Adcock, Jesse Chavez, Gregory Holland, Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery.
Analysis: Like the Indians and the AL East’s weak sisters, the Royals have started well, and combined with the good reputation of the prospects on the way, that suggests that this division may end up more compressed than the EWSL standings suggest. But there’s no better antidote to optimism about the Royals than looking at the people they’re actually counting on for at bats and innings. It’s still a long way out of that hole.


The Method
For those of you who are unfamiliar, EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2011 revisions to the age and rookie adjustments are discussed here.
Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give a probabalistic assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system – EWSL tells you what you should reasonably expect to happen this year if there are no surprises, rather than shedding light on how to spot the surprises before they happen; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here, here, here, here, here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. (I’m not convinced going to 24 or 25 would make the system more useful, since it would tend to overrate teams that stuff their back bench slots with aging ex-regulars). That said, I also don’t adjust for available playing time, since as a general rule, teams that have excess depth of players with established track records are better off than those that are stretching to cover their whole roster with guys who have proven they can do the job. The line for each team’s estimated 2011 W-L record adds EWSL plus 39.8 Win Shares, which is the average number of Win Shares by the rest of the team’s roster (i.e., the players other than the 23 listed before the season) over the teams I have tracked the past five seasons (it went up this season, as explained here).
As always, the depth charts here are drawn from multiple sources (my starting point was the depth charts at Baseball Prospectus.com, as well as USA Today’s Baseball Weekly, and I’ve also worked from the actual playing time thus far in April, all modified by press reports and my own assessments) to list the guys who will end up doing the work. I take responsibility for any errors; a lot can still change.
You can compare the prior AL Central roundups for 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.

4 thoughts on “2011 AL Central EWSL Report”

  1. re: Indians — If a healthy Sizemore is productive, if a healthy Hafner returns to the productive power hitter of a few years ago and if the young pitchers continue to produce (not assuming they continue to pitch like all-stars, but continue to be solid), how much upside does this team have for a full season?

  2. Crank, I am as suprised as anyone about the start Frenchie is off to. He is hitting in the clutch and playing great defense. The Royals hopes for this season depend on how soon the kids start coming up. There are probably 5-6 guys at AAA that are better than the guy in front of them in KC. Quick way to get better, but .500 will be a great year.

  3. I am never surprised when Frenchy starts well for a new employer. He’s done it at every stop. It just gets him more playing time.

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