2012 NL Central EWSL Report

Part 4 of my now very belated “preseason” previews is the NL Central; this is the fourth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Cincinnati Reds
Raw EWSL: 210.83
Adjusted: 228.84
Age-Adj.: 218.03
WS Age: 29.1
2012 W-L: 86-76

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 31 Ryan Hanigan 11 9
1B 28 Joey Votto 32 32
2B 31 Brandon Phillips 20 17
SS 26 Zack Cozart+ 1 11
3B 37 Scott Rolen 11 7
RF 25 Jay Bruce 18 21
CF 27 Drew Stubbs 13 14
LF 33 Ryan Ludwick 15 13
C2 24 Devin Mesoraco+ 1 4
INF 34 Wilson Valdez 8 7
OF 27 Chris Heisey# 5 7
12 34 Willie Harris 5 5
13 38 Miguel Cairo 6 4
SP1 35 Bronson Arroyo 8 7
SP2 26 Johnny Cueto 11 12
SP3 24 Mike Leake# 7 9
SP4 26 Homer Bailey 5 6
SP5 24 Mat Latos 9 10
RP1 24 Aroldis Chapman* 3 5
RP2 29 Sean Marshall 10 8
RP3 29 Bill Bray 3 3
RP4 27 Logan Ondusek# 4 4
RP5 30 Nick Masset 6 5

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Paul Janish, Billy Hamilton.
Pitchers – Alfredo Simon, Jose Arredondo, Ryan Madson (out for the season).
Analysis: The NL Central often looks weaker before the season than it does as the year progresses, but times have changed; Tony LaRussa, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are all gone, leaving the division short on anchors. That gives the Reds, who unlike their rivals managed to retain star 1B Joey Votto, a competitive advantage. Add in a rotation that could be stable if Johnny Cueto stays healthy and the usual Reds young, athletic outfield, and this team should be in any mix that emerges in this division.
Hamilton thus far is batting .381/.470/.583 and has already stolen 28 bases in A ball, although his suspect defense may slow his ascent.
Milwaukee Brewers
Raw EWSL: 227.50
Adjusted: 232.08
Age-Adj.: 212.81
WS Age: 29.9
2012 W-L: 84-78

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 26 Jonathan Lucroy# 9 12
1B 26 Mat Gamel 1 1
2B 29 Rickie Weeks 20 19
SS 35 Alex Gonzalez 14 10
3B 34 Aramis Ramirez 19 17
RF 30 Corey Hart 18 16
CF 31 Nyjer Morgan 14 11
LF 28 Ryan Braun 33 33
C2 29 George Kottaras 4 3
INF 28 Travis Ishikawa 3 3
OF 26 Carlos Gomez 6 6
12 30 Norichika Aoki+ 0 1
13 32 Cesar Izturis 4 3
SP1 26 Yovanni Gallardo 12 13
SP2 28 Zack Greinke 13 12
SP3 30 Shawn Marcum 11 9
SP4 35 Randy Wolf 11 9
SP5 30 Chris Narveson 6 5
RP1 29 John Axford# 11 12
RP2 30 Francisco Rodriguez 10 9
RP3 30 Kameron Loe 4 4
RP4 29 Manny Parra 1 1
RP5 31 Jose Veras 4 3

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position Players – Brooks Conrad.
Pitchers – Marco Estrada, who is off to an excellent start; Tim Dillard.
Analysis: The whiz heard round the world: Ryan Braun missing 50 games would have been a really horrible blow to this team after losing Fielder. With him, the Brewers’ rotation gives them a fighting chance. Note that an unbalanced schedule against this large, weak division, especially the Astros, should make the rest of the NL Central teams look deceptively stronger than they are.
World Champion St. Louis Cardinals
Raw EWSL: 208.67
Adjusted: 223.91
Age-Adj.: 199.17
WS Age: 31.0
2012 W-L: 80-82

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 29 Yadier Molina 18 17
1B 36 Lance Berkman 23 17
2B 32 Skip Schumaker 13 11
SS 34 Rafael Furcal 13 11
3B 29 David Freese 9 9
RF 35 Carlos Beltran 18 13
CF 27 Jon Jay# 9 12
LF 32 Matt Holliday 23 18
C2 25 Tony Cruz* 1 2
INF 25 Daniel Descalso* 5 12
OF 27 Allen Craig# 6 7
12 28 Tyler Greene 2 2
13 26 Matt Carpenter+ 0 4
SP1 37 Chris Carpenter 14 11
SP2 30 Adam Wainwright 10 9
SP3 25 Jaime Garcia# 8 10
SP4 34 Jake Westbrook 5 4
SP5 33 Kyle Lohse 5 4
RP1 30 Jason Motte 7 6
RP2 28 Mitchell Boggs 3 3
RP3 27 Fernando Salas# 6 7
RP4 28 Kyle McClellan 6 6
RP5 26 Marc Rzepcynski 4 4

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Shane Robinson, Erik Komatsu.
Pitchers – Lance Lynn (I have him here because this was his preseason slot; he’s been a surprising early star in the rotation), JC Romero, Victor Marte, Scott Linebrink (injured).
Analysis: The hulking sinkerballer Lynn has really been a huge help in Carpenter’s early absence and with Wainwright struggling (0-3, 7.32 ERA), and the team’s 14-7 record (16-5 Pythagorean record) suggests that the Cards could yet again pull an upside surprise if the antique trio of Beltran, Furcal and Berkman can stay healthy (Berkman’s already on the DL). Then again, history suggests that a 1.62 ERA from Lohse, a 1.30 ERA from Westbrook and a .620 slugging average from Yadier Molina may be a tall order to sustain.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Raw EWSL: 168.00
Adjusted: 185.37
Age-Adj.: 182.65
WS Age: 28.5
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 36 Rod Barajas 10 8
1B 31 Garrett Jones 12 10
2B 26 Neil Walker# 15 20
SS 33 Clint Barmes 11 9
3B 29 Casey McGehee 16 15
RF 23 Jose Tabata# 9 13
CF 25 Andrew McCutchen 24 29
LF 26 Alex Presley* 4 9
C2 27 Michael McKendry* 1 2
INF 25 Pedro Alvarez# 6 9
OF 30 Nate McLouth 9 8
12 24 Josh Harrison* 3 7
13 26 Matt Hague+ 0 4
SP1 33 Erik Bedard 4 3
SP2 27 James McDonald 5 4
SP3 29 Jeff Karstens 6 5
SP4 28 Charlie Morton 5 4
SP5 31 Kevin Corriea 4 3
RP1 30 Joel Hanrahan 10 9
RP2 29 Chris Resop 3 2
RP3 29 Evan Meek 4 4
RP4 33 Juan Cruz 2 1
RP5 35 AJ Burnett 6 5

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Yamaico Navarro
Pitchers – Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Daniel McCutchen, Doug Slaten.
Analysis: Things are looking up in Pittsburgh, for a certain value of “up” compared to 19 consecutive losing seasons. Sad as it sounds, the Pirates’ 75 wins in 2003 was their only trip above 72 victories since 1999; this team has a fighting chance to top that. I would hesitate to project more.
Chicago Cubs
Raw EWSL: 156.00
Adjusted: 174.18
Age-Adj.: 175.23
SUbj. Adj.: 169.23
WS Age: 29.6
2012 W-L: 70-92

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 29 Geovany Soto 11 11
1B 29 Bryan LaHair+ 1 11
2B 26 Darwin Barney# 7 10
SS 22 Starlin Castro# 17 35
3B 27 Ian Stewart 5 5
RF 32 David DeJesus 10 8
CF 34 Marlon Byrd 14 12
LF 36 Alfonso Soriano 12 9
C2 26 Steve Clevenger+ 0 4
INF 31 Jeff Baker 4 3
OF 35 Reed Johnson 6 4
12 29 Joe Mather 1 1
13 26 Blake DeWitt 8 8
SP1 28 Matt Garza 10 10
SP2 35 Ryan Dempster 9 7
SP3 27 Jeff Samardzjia 4 3
SP4 25 Chris Volstad 4 4
SP5 30 Paul Maholm 6 5
RP1 29 Carlos Marmol 11 10
RP2 35 Kerry Wood 4 4
RP3 36 Shawn Camp 5 5
RP4 26 James Russell# 1 1
RP5 29 Randy Wells 7 6

Subjective Adjustments: I cut Starlin Castro from 35 Win Shares to 29, for the usual reason that EWSL over-projects 22-year-old everyday shortstops whose value is heavily in their glove.
Also on Hand: Pitchers – Casey Coleman, Rodrigo Lopez, Rafael Davis, Lendy Castillo, Scott Maine.
Analysis: In the optimist’s case, this is probably the season that provides the “how bad they were” backdrop for a later turnaround by Theo Epstein. I’d rather owe $54.5 million to Johan Santana than $54 million to Alfonso Soriano…the interesting question for an aggressive new GM is whether you could get a good package for Castro, or whether you retain him as the core building block. He’s going to be one of the most valuable fantasy players in baseball over the next five years, but the debate is whether he’s actually good enough defensively, and likely to survive his rough plate discipline, to match his perceived value. I don’t know that I’d bet against a 22 year old shortstop with his gifts, though. He’s batting .337 and leading the NL in steals at the moment.
Another guy who looks like he may finally be figuring things out is Jeff Samardzija, with a 25/8 K/BB ratio and just one HR allowed in 24 innings.
Houston Astros
Raw EWSL: 96.17
Adjusted: 113.76
Age-Adj.: 105.61
WS Age: 29.4
2012 W-L: 48-114

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 25 Jason Castro# 1 2
1B 36 Carlos Lee 17 12
2B 22 Jose Altuve* 1 4
SS 28 Jed Lowrie 5 5
3B 27 Chris Johnson# 9 11
RF 28 Brian Bogusevic* 2 4
CF 25 Jordan Schafer 4 5
LF 24 JD Martinez* 3 8
C2 31 Chris Snyder 6 5
INF 23 Marwin Gonzalez+ 0 4
OF 28 Travis Buck 2 2
12 29 Brian Bixler 0 0
13 28 Justin Maxwell 1 1
SP1 33 Wandy Rodriguez 11 8
SP2 27 Bud Norris 5 4
SP3 29 JA Happ 5 4
SP4 27 Lucas Harrell# 0 0
SP5 25 Kyle Weiland+ 0 4
RP1 31 Brett Myers 9 7
RP2 28 Wilton Lopez 5 5
RP3 28 Fernando Rodriguez* 2 2
RP4 26 David Carpenter* 1 2
RP5 32 Brandon Lyon 7 5

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Brett Wallace, Landon Powell, Angel Sanchez.
Pitchers – Wesley Wright, Fernando Abad, Rhiner Cruz, Enerio del Rosario.
Analysis: No, that 48-114 record is not a typo; measured by ESWL, the Astros enter 2012 as the worst, or at least weakest, team since I started doing this in 2004.
The optimist’s case is that the Astros are this weak, not because they have a collection of players who have proven they can’t play in the majors, but mostly because they have a collection of players who haven’t proven they can play in the majors. That can sometimes yield surprises; the diminutive (5’5″) young (22) Jose Altuve, who hit .276 .297 .357 in Houston after hitting .408/.451/.606 in A ball and .361/.388/.569 in AA last season, is batting .359/.407/.551 so far; with his small stature, youth and compact swing, Altuve could well turn out to be a star, or he could be Jose Lopez, or he could be a little of both, like Carlos Baerga. Other youngsters could emerge as well, given enough playing time, although few of the others in the Houston lineup or rotation have an upside similar to Altuve’s.
But this is guaranteed to be a terrible team, one that will likely get worse before it gets better if the team can find takers for even a portion of Brett Myers’ and Carlos Lee’s contracts (Myers has one more year remaining, Lee’s done after this season).


The Method
For those of you who are unfamiliar, EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2011 revisions to the age and rookie adjustments are discussed here.
Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give a probabalistic assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system – EWSL tells you what you should reasonably expect to happen this year if there are no surprises, rather than shedding light on how to spot the surprises before they happen; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here, here, here, here, here, here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. (I’m not convinced going to 24 or 25 would make the system more useful, since it would tend to overrate teams that stuff their back bench slots with aging ex-regulars). That said, I also don’t adjust for available playing time, since as a general rule, teams that have excess depth of players with established track records are better off than those that are stretching to cover their whole roster with guys who have proven they can do the job. The line for each team’s estimated 2012 W-L record adds EWSL plus 39.7 Win Shares, which is the average number of Win Shares by the rest of the team’s roster (i.e., the players other than the 23 listed before the season) over the teams I have tracked the past six seasons (2011 team results are rounded up here).
As always, the depth charts here are drawn from multiple sources, including early-season box scores and the depth charts at Baseball Prospectus.com, all modified by press reports and my own assessments. I take responsibility for any errors; a lot can still change.
Prior NL Central roundups here: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.