2012 NL West EWSL Report

Part 6 of my now very belated “preseason” previews is the NL West; this is the last of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West, NL Central, NL East.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Arizona Diamondbacks
Raw EWSL: 236.50
Adjusted: 246.53
Age-Adj.: 239.48
WS Age: 28.9
2012 W-L: 93-69

C 28 Miguel Montero 20 20
1B 24 Paul Goldschmidt* 3 8
2B 30 Aaron Hill 14 13
SS 29 Stephen Drew 14 14
3B 31 Ryan Roberts 11 9
RF 24 Justin Upton 21 27
CF 28 Chris Young 18 18
LF 30 Jason Kubel 14 12
C2 40 Henry Blanco 4 2
INF 34 Willie Bloomquist 6 5
OF 25 Gerardo Parra 13 16
12 35 Lyle Overbay 10 7
13 37 John McDonald 5 3
SP1 27 Ian Kennedy 14 12
SP2 25 Daniel Hudson# 11 15
SP3 24 Trevor Cahill 11 12
SP4 31 Joe Saunders 10 8
SP5 26 Josh Collmenter* 5 11
RP1 35 JJ Putz 9 8
RP2 27 David Hernandez 8 7
RP3 32 Brad Ziegler 6 5
RP4 31 Craig Breslow 5 4
RP5 42 Takashi Saito 5 3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but I expect Goldschmidt to easily surpass 8 Win Shares if healthy.
Also on Hand: Position players – Geoff Blum, Cody Ransom (who has now played 10 years in the majors without once having 100 plate appearances), AJ Pollock.
Pitchers – Joe Paterson, who is off to about the worst possible start imaginable: Paterson allowed as many earned runs (11) in April as he did in 62 appearances all last year. In 2.2 innings he’s faced 26 batters and allowed 18 baserunners (including 2 homers and 4 doubles), and he hasn’t struck out a batter yet. Also Bryan Shaw, Jonathan Albaladejo, Wade Miley, Mike Zagurski, Joe Martinez, Patrick Corbin and Barry Enright.
Analysis: The D-Backs remain the class of this division based on established major league talent, and were the logical preseason favorites. Obviously, the Dodgers’ 4-game lead through May 2 could turn out to be decisive in the long run even if LA comes back to earth. Arizona has also been banged up early, including injuries to Hudson, Drew and Saito. Upton remains a very logical potential MVP candidate.
Henry Blanco is still playing at 40, Matt Treanor at 36, Brian Schneider at 35, Rod Barajas at 36, Dave Ross at 35, Jose Molina at 37. If you know young football players, advise them to consider catching as a career. A little talent, toughness and work ethic will give them a longer, happier career than a lot of NFL stars seem to have.
I haven’t run the numbers, but the Diamondbacks have to have made the most trades involving the largest number of contributing major league players over the past 2 years or so.
San Francisco Giants
Raw EWSL: 209.00
Adjusted: 221.64
Age-Adj.: 213.06
WS Age: 28.9
2012 W-L: 84-78

C 25 Buster Posey# 11 16
1B 24 Brandon Belt* 3 7
2B 34 Freddy Sanchez 11 10
SS 25 Brandon Crawford* 3 6
3B 25 Pablo Sandoval 19 23
RF 28 Nate Schierholtz 10 10
CF 30 Angel Pagan 17 16
LF 27 Melky Cabrera 15 15
C2 22 Hector Sanchez+ 0 4
INF 35 Aubrey Huff 17 12
OF 28 Gregor Blanco 2 2
12 32 Ryan Theriot 12 9
13 27 Emmanuel Burriss 1 1
SP1 28 Tim Lincecum 16 15
SP2 27 Matt Cain 16 14
SP3 22 Madison Bumgarner# 9 14
SP4 34 Barry Zito 4 3
SP5 34 Ryan Vogelsong 7 6
RP1 30 Brian Wilson 13 11
RP2 32 Santiago Casilla 7 5
RP3 33 Jeremy Affeldt 6 4
RP4 34 Javier Lopez 5 4
RP5 29 Sergio Romo 8 7

Subjective Adjustments: None, because I’m trying to avoid biasing the results with events since the season started, but clearly Brian Wilson will not be contributing to the Giants this season, and now Sandoval is out with a busted hand. Freddy Sanchez has also been hurt, and it’s not really clear whether he or Burriss ends up as the second baseman once Sanchez is healthy.
Also on Hand: Position players – Brett Pill, Joaquin Arias, Eli Whiteside.
Pitchers – Clay Hensley, Guillermo Mota, Dan Otero, Eric Hacker.
Analysis: As noted above, San Francisco’s injuries make it a lot harder for the Giants to pick themselves off the mat. They have a lineup only Brian Sabean could love, despite the presence of three talented young bats (Sandoval, Posey and Belt). The outfield seems particularly symptomatic of a failure to learn anything from the Aaron Rowand signing. I needn’t belabor the obvious point that Belt needs to be just stuck in the lineup until he figures things out; he batted .320/.461/.528 in the minors last season after .352/.455/.620 in 2010, but the Giants seem unwilling or unable to live with any growing pains.
As for the rotation, there’s been a huge variation thus far in the batting average on balls in play vs various Giants pitchers, and their early successes and failures should seem a lot less dramatic as these even out over the course of the season; it’s why I’m not so worried about Lincecum in particular, whose peripheral numbers are still solid:

Dan Otero 0.452
Jeremy Affeldt 0.417
Guillermo Mota 0.367
Tim Lincecum 0.351
Ryan Vogelsong 0.292
Madison Bumgarner 0.245
Santiago Casilla 0.192
Clay Hensley 0.188
Barry Zito 0.188
Matt Cain 0.158

Los Angeles Dodgers
Raw EWSL: 204.67
Adjusted: 215.23
Age-Adj.: 200.51
WS Age: 30.2
2012 W-L: 80-82

C 31 AJ Ellis# 3 3
1B 28 James Loney 17 17
2B 35 Mark Ellis 13 9
SS 24 Dee Gordon* 6 8
3B 32 Juan Uribe 9 7
RF 30 Andre Ethier 20 18
CF 27 Matt Kemp 28 29
LF 29 Tony Gwynn jr 8 7
C2 36 Matt Treanor 4 3
INF 36 Adam Kennedy 8 6
OF 33 Juan Rivera 11 9
12 36 Jerry Hairston jr 11 8
13 26 Justin Sellers* 2 4
SP1 24 Clayton Kershaw 19 21
SP2 27 Chad Billingsley 8 7
SP3 33 Chris Capuano 4 2
SP4 36 Ted Lilly 10 9
SP5 34 Aaron Harang 6 4
RP1 26 Javy Guerra* 4 9
RP2 24 Kenley Jansen# 5 7
RP3 37 Jamey Wright 5 4
RP4 35 Mike MacDougal 4 3
RP5 33 Matt Guerrier 6 4

Subjective Adjustments: None, but as with Goldschmidt, you can assume a pretty high likelihood that Dee Gordon beats 8 Win Shares if he stays healthy all year.
Also on Hand: Position players – Ivan De Jesus jr, the third of the Dodgers’ junior brigade, and Jerry Sands.
Pitchers – Todd Coffey, Blake Hawkesworth, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Rubby de la Rosa (on the DL) and Ronald Belisario (same).
Analysis: The frontline talent is strong and in its prime, but the rest of the team is ancient and creaky. Obviously, banking on Matt Kemp to hit .411/.500/.856 all year is not a wager I would take. Kemp has now raised his career April line to .343/.405/.618; his .297/.354/.526 line in June is the only one even close. Color me unpersuaded that this is really a 90+ win team unless significant help is added to the roster.
The Dodgers’ long-term prognosis, of course, is vastly improved by the end of the McCourt Era, in which – ironically – Frank McCourt proved unable to competently manage even the one part of the team he had experience running (parking lots).
Colorado Rockies
Raw EWSL: 181.83
Adjusted: 193.87
Age-Adj.: 177.50
WS Age: 30.6
2012 W-L: 72-90

C 36 Ramon Hernandez 11 8
1B 38 Todd Helton 13 9
2B 36 Marco Scutaro 14 10
SS 27 Troy Tulowitzki 25 26
3B 26 Chris Nelson* 1 2
RF 33 Michael Cuddyer 16 14
CF 26 Dexter Fowler 15 16
LF 26 Carlos Gonzalez 20 22
C2 23 Wilin Rosario+ 1 4
INF 27 Jonathan Herrera# 4 4
OF 26 Tyler Colvin# 4 5
12 27 Eric Young 3 3
13 41 Jason Giambi 6 3
SP1 24 Jhoulys Chacin# 9 13
SP2 49 Jamie Moyer 2 1
SP3 25 Juan Nicasio* 2 4
SP4 33 Jeremy Guthrie 10 7
SP5 31 Jorge de la Rosa 7 5
RP1 37 Rafael Betancourt 9 7
RP2 32 Matt Belisle 7 6
RP3 27 Matt Reynolds# 2 2
RP4 29 Josh Roenicke 1 1
RP5 24 Rex Brothers* 2 5

Subjective Adjustments: None. Jorge de la Rosa is expected back in June and will be welcomed by a tattered rotation, but his numbers reflect his injury last season
Also on Hand: Position players – Jordan Pacheco, Eliezer Alfonzo, Hector Gomez.
Pitchers – Drew Pomeranz, who is presently the third or fourth starter pending the return of de la Rosa and Guthrie (also Chacin, just sent to AAA), Tyler Chatwood, Esmil Rogers, Guillermo Moscoso, Edgmer Escalona, Zach Putnam, Josh Outman.
Analysis: I’ve had a lot of fun on Twitter doing “how old is Jamie Moyer” facts (eg, he was the second-oldest player on the Mariners when he arrived in Seattle in August 1996), but the amazing thing is how dependent the Rockies have been on Moyer. His 3.14 ERA is deceptively low given the unearned runs he’s allowed and a low BABIP, but he’s basically the same old Moyer, which is a valuable thing on a team in Coors Field with terrible pitching.
A further retrospective on the careers of Moyer, Helton and Giambi is something I should return to later.
San Diego Padres
Raw EWSL: 159.67
Adjusted: 178.57
Age-Adj.: 172.33
WS Age: 28.7
2012 W-L: 71-91

C 28 Nick Hundley 11 11
1B 25 Yonder Alonso* 2 5
2B 34 Orlando Hudson 15 13
SS 32 Jason Bartlett 15 12
3B 28 Chase Headley 16 16
RF 29 Will Venable 12 12
CF 25 Cameron Maybin 12 14
LF 29 Carlos Quentin 14 14
C2 31 John Baker 3 2
INF 26 Andy Parrino+ 0 4
OF 28 Jesus Guzman* 7 13
12 31 Chris Denorfia 7 6
13 28 Jeremy Hermida 4 4
SP1 28 Ednison Volquez 1 1
SP2 28 Clayton Richard 6 5
SP3 27 Cory Luebke* 4 6
SP4 30 Tim Stauffer 7 6
SP5 24 Anthony Bass* 3 6
RP1 28 Huston Street 9 8
RP2 26 Ernesto Frieri# 3 4
RP3 28 Luke Gregerson 6 5
RP4 25 Andrew Cashner# 1 2
RP5 29 Micah Owings 4 3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but again, I expect Alonso to step up with full-time playing time.
Also on Hand: Position players – Kyle Blanks (now out for the season), Mark Kotsay, Blake Tekotte, Logan Forsythe.
Pitchers – Joe Thatcher, Joe Wieland (presently in the rotation), Josh Spence, Brad Brach, Dale Thayer, Jeff Suppan (recently exhumed from the minors – he’s now in his 20th professional season. He’s also 13 years younger than Moyer), Dustin Moseley (out for the season).
Analysis: What’s worse – that the Padres are hitting .216/.302/.331 as a team, or that that doesn’t even make them the lowest-scoring team in the league (the Pirates are scoring almost half a run per game less)? Yet, the lineup (partly due to a number of good glove men) isn’t full of untalented guys, so much as it lacks anybody with star-level talent, plus the big bat (Quentin) hasn’t played yet, with Guzman subbing for him. It’s actually the rotation, which the park makes look respectable, that’s really weak, and the bullpen is less impressive as well than it seems.

The Method
For those of you who are unfamiliar, EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2011 revisions to the age and rookie adjustments are discussed here.
Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give a probabalistic assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system – EWSL tells you what you should reasonably expect to happen this year if there are no surprises, rather than shedding light on how to spot the surprises before they happen; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here, here, here, here, here, here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. (I’m not convinced going to 24 or 25 would make the system more useful, since it would tend to overrate teams that stuff their back bench slots with aging ex-regulars). That said, I also don’t adjust for available playing time, since as a general rule, teams that have excess depth of players with established track records are better off than those that are stretching to cover their whole roster with guys who have proven they can do the job. The line for each team’s estimated 2012 W-L record adds EWSL plus 39.7 Win Shares, which is the average number of Win Shares by the rest of the team’s roster (i.e., the players other than the 23 listed before the season) over the teams I have tracked the past six seasons (2011 team results are rounded up here).
As always, the depth charts here are drawn from multiple sources, including early-season box scores and the depth charts at Baseball Prospectus.com, all modified by press reports and my own assessments. I take responsibility for any errors; a lot can still change.
Prior NL West previews here: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.

One thought on “2012 NL West EWSL Report”

  1. Been enjoying your Jamie Moyer tweets…
    Today is Tony Perez’ birthday. He is 70 years old.
    Jamie Moyer pitched to Tony Perez in 1986.
    Tony Perez batted against Curt Simmons in 1964.
    Curt Simmons pitched to Johnny Mize in 1948.
    Johnny Mize batted against Carl Hubbell in 1936.
    Carl Hubbell pitched to George Harper of the Cardinals in 1928.
    In 1916 George Harper played right field next to Ty Cobb for the Tigers.
    Six Degrees from Jamie Moyer to Ty Cobb.

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