Category: Baseball Studies

I have a new baseball essay over at The Federalist looking at baseball’s winningest pitchers if you combine their Major League, postseason, Minor League, and in some cases Japanese and Negro League wins. I looked at every pitcher who won 150 or more games in the majors plus every known minor league 300 game winner, plus anybody else I ran across who made the list, so it’s possible there’s a few people here and there I missed but unlikely that any of them (aside from people who spent their whole careers in Japan or the Negro Leagues) would crack 300. All numbers are through the 2013 postseason (in which Bartolo Colon went 0-1 and Freddy Garcia pitched without a decision). The charts in the article go down through 250 wins, but since I have extra space here, I’ll run the rest of what I have here:
The 225-249 Win Club

1st	Last	Pitcher	W-MLB	L-MLB	W-Post	L-Post	W-Min	L-min	W(All)	L(All)	W%	G+.500
1883	1898	Adonis Terry	197	196	3	4	49	22	249	222	0.529	27
1981	2003	David Cone	194	126	8	3	47	40	249	169	0.596	80
1929	1950	Tommy Bridges	194	138	4	1	50	36	248	175	0.586	73
1913	1932	Lee Meadows	188	180	0	2	60	56	248	238	0.510	10
1959	1979	Mickey Lolich	217	191	3	1	27	44	247	236	0.511	11
1995	2013	Roy Halladay	203	105	3	2	41	35	247	142	0.635	105
1913	1928	Urban Shocker	187	117	0	1	60	28	247	146	0.628	101
1889	1901	Amos Rusie*	246	174					246	174	0.586	72
1914	1940	Sad Sam Jones	229	217	0	2	16	10	245	229	0.517	16
1966	1988	Joe Niekro	221	204	0	0	24	17	245	221	0.526	24
1891	1908	Brickyard Kennedy	187	159	0	1	58	49	245	209	0.540	36
1930	1947	Bill Lee (I)	169	157	0	2	76	33	245	192	0.561	53
1930	1951	Harry Gumbert	143	113	0	0	101	84	244	197	0.553	47
1911	1935	Dutch Ruether	137	95	1	1	106	84	244	180	0.575	64
1938	1959	Virgil Trucks (2)	177	135	1	0	65	40	243	175	0.581	68
1884	1895	Bob Caruthers	218	99	7	8	17	16	242	123	0.663	119
1982	2008	Kenny Rogers	219	156	3	3	19	39	241	198	0.549	43
1967	1986	Vida Blue	209	161	1	5	31	18	241	184	0.567	57
1895	1909	Jack Chesbro	198	132			43	34	241	166	0.592	75
1911	1934	Bob Shawkey	195	150	1	3	45	50	241	203	0.543	38
1957	1975	Claude Osteen	196	195	1	2	43	32	240	229	0.512	11
1939	1954	Allie Reynolds	182	107	7	2	51	32	240	141	0.630	99
1912	1930	Jesse Barnes (1)	152	150	2	0	84	58	238	208	0.534	30
1975	1995	Dave Stewart	168	129	10	6	59	46	237	181	0.567	56
1874	1885	Tommy Bond	234	163			2	1	236	164	0.590	72
1877	1889	Will White	229	166			7	13	236	179	0.569	57
1895	1910	Al Orth	204	189			32	19	236	208	0.532	28
1945	1964	Billy Pierce	211	169	1	1	22	19	234	189	0.553	45
1898	1923	Wild Bill Donovan	185	139	1	4	48	23	234	166	0.585	68
1882	1892	Charlie Buffinton*	233	152			0	0	233	152	0.605	81
1965	1979	Catfish Hunter	224	166	9	6			233	172	0.575	61
1997	2013	Tim Hudson	205	111	1	3	27	13	233	127	0.647	106
1928	1947	Lefty Gomez	189	102	6	0	38	30	233	132	0.638	101
1912	1931	Bullet Joe Bush	196	184	2	5	34	21	232	210	0.525	22
1903	1923	Red Ames	183	167	0	1	49	47	232	215	0.519	17
1991	2013	Derek Lowe	176	157	5	7	51	47	232	211	0.524	21
1921	1945	Red Lucas	157	135			75	54	232	189	0.551	43
1909	1925	Fred Toney	139	102	0	0	93	62	232	164	0.586	68
1921	1938	Pat Malone	134	92	0	3	98	113	232	208	0.527	24
1954	1969	Don Drysdale	209	166	3	3	19	16	231	185	0.555	46
1968	1989	Doyle Alexander	194	174	0	5	37	38	231	217	0.516	14
1983	2003	John Burkett	166	136	2	1	63	59	231	196	0.541	35
1986	2005	Kevin Brown	211	144	5	5	14	23	230	172	0.572	58
1907	1921	Hippo Vaughn	178	137	1	2	51	46	230	185	0.554	45
1972	1998	Dennis Eckersley	197	171	1	3	31	16	229	190	0.547	39
1965	1985	Mike Torrez	185	160	2	1	42	46	229	207	0.525	22
1935	1957	Dizzy Trout	170	161	1	2	58	42	229	205	0.528	24
1926	1948	Willis Hudlin	158	156			71	49	229	205	0.528	24
1926	1942	Larry French (*3)	197	171	0	2	31	36	228	209	0.522	19
1994	2013	Bartolo Colon	189	128	2	4	37	14	228	146	0.610	82
1960	1978	Wilbur Wood	164	156			64	46	228	202	0.530	26
1998	2013	CC Sabathia	205	115	9	5	13	13	227	133	0.631	94
1982	2000	Dwight Gooden	194	112	0	4	33	13	227	129	0.638	98
1922	1941	Firpo Marberry	148	88	0	1	78	66	226	155	0.593	71
1902	1920	Ed Walsh	195	126	2	0	28	13	225	139	0.618	86
1928	1945	Lon Warneke (2)	192	121	2	1	31	36	225	158	0.587	67

The 200-224 Win Club

1st	Last	Pitcher	W-MLB	L-MLB	W-Post	L-Post	W-Min	L-min	W(All)	L(All)	W%	G+.500
1905	1922	Slim Sallee	174	143	1	3	49	32	224	178	0.557	46
1890	1903	Frank Killen	164	131			60	48	224	179	0.556	45
1977	1994	Bob Welch	211	146	3	3	9	6	223	155	0.590	68
1894	1912	Chick Fraser	175	212			48	53	223	265	0.457	-42
1939	1955	Hal Newhouser	207	150	2	1	13	18	222	169	0.568	53
1897	1911	Sam Leever	194	100	0	2	28	22	222	124	0.642	98
1954	1972	Mudcat Grant	145	119	2	1	75	33	222	153	0.592	69
1897	1911	Deacon Phillippe	189	109	3	2	29	30	221	141	0.610	80
1948	1967	Jack Sanford (1)	137	101	1	2	83	74	221	177	0.555	44
1887	1906	Red Ehret	139	167	2	0	79	90	220	257	0.461	-37
1913	1929	Art Nehf	184	120	4	4	31	19	219	143	0.605	76
1922	1937	General Crowder	167	115	1	2	51	38	219	155	0.586	64
1932	1948	Claude Passeau	162	150	1	0	56	41	219	191	0.534	28
1897	1911	Jack Taylor	152	139			67	43	219	182	0.546	37
1911	1927	George Mogridge	132	133	1	0	86	51	219	184	0.543	35
1974	1994	Rick Sutcliffe	171	139	1	1	45	51	217	191	0.532	26
1910	1929	Bill Doak	169	157			48	51	217	208	0.511	9
1931	1950	Rip Sewell	143	97			74	85	217	182	0.544	35
1915	1932	Bill Sherdel	165	146	0	4	51	35	216	185	0.539	31
1910	1942	Clarence Mitchell	125	139	0	0	91	70	216	209	0.508	7
1938	1956	Sal Maglie (2)	119	62	1	2	96	81	216	145	0.598	71
1887	1899	Jack Stivetts	203	132	2	0	9	6	214	138	0.608	76
1982	1998	Jimmy Key	186	117	5	3	23	16	214	136	0.611	78
1961	1975	Dave McNally	184	119	7	4	23	24	214	147	0.593	67
1981	1999	Mark Langston	179	158	0	0	33	22	212	180	0.541	32
1918	1935	Eddie Rommel	171	119	1	0	40	32	212	151	0.584	61
1970	1989	Bob Forsch	168	136	3	4	41	37	212	177	0.545	35
1947	1967	Bob Buhl (2)	166	132	0	1	46	44	212	177	0.545	35
1903	1915	Howie Camnitz	133	106	0	1	79	46	212	153	0.581	59
1938	1958	Bob Lemon (3)	207	128	2	2	2	6	211	136	0.608	75
1950	1966	Bob Friend	197	230	0	2	14	13	211	245	0.463	-34
1961	1974	Mel Stottlemyre	164	139	1	1	46	23	211	163	0.564	48
1997	2013	Roy Oswalt	163	102	5	2	43	28	211	132	0.615	79
1930	1947	Dizzy Dean	150	83	2	2	59	29	211	114	0.649	97
1972	1990	Bob Knepper	146	155	0	1	65	45	211	201	0.512	10
1928	1945	Johnny Allen	142	75	0	0	69	50	211	125	0.628	86
1947	1967	Curt Simmons (1)	193	183	0	1	17	6	210	190	0.525	20
1914	1930	Howard Ehmke (1)	166	166	1	0	43	18	210	184	0.533	26
1946	1961	Don Newcombe (2)	149	90	0	4	61	26	210	120	0.636	90
1942	1961	Mike Garcia (3)	142	97	0	1	68	45	210	143	0.595	67
1957	1973	Milt Pappas	209	164	0	0	0	1	209	165	0.559	44
1901	1917	Doc White	189	156	1	1	19	16	209	173	0.547	36
1924	1936	George Earnshaw	127	93	4	3	78	48	209	144	0.592	65
1973	1993	John Candelaria	177	122	2	2	29	11	208	135	0.606	73
1963	1982	Rick Wise	188	181	2	0	17	20	207	201	0.507	6
1932	1951	Schoolboy Rowe (2)	158	101	2	5	47	20	207	126	0.622	81
1985	2002	Chuck Finley	200	173	1	2	5	2	206	177	0.538	29
1993	2012	Kevin Millwood	169	152	3	3	34	35	206	190	0.520	16
1990	2008	Hideo Nomo	123	109	0	2	83	52	206	163	0.558	43
1886	1897	Silver King*	203	152	2	6			205	158	0.565	47
1929	1950	Bucky Walters	198	160	2	2	5	6	205	168	0.550	37
1973	1992	Mike Flanagan	167	143	3	2	35	16	205	161	0.560	44
1968	1984	Paul Splitorff	166	143	2	0	37	32	205	175	0.539	30
1994	2011	Javier Vazquez	165	160	1	1	39	16	205	177	0.537	28
1976	1998	Danny Darwin	171	182			33	22	204	204	0.500	0
1900	1910	Addie Joss	160	97			44	34	204	131	0.609	73
1919	1939	George Uhle	200	166	0	0	3	4	203	170	0.544	33
1999	2013	Mark Buehrle	186	142	2	1	15	8	203	151	0.573	52
1895	1909	Bill Dinneen	170	177	3	1	30	24	203	202	0.501	1
1995	2013	Freddy Garcia	156	108	6	3	41	30	203	141	0.590	62
1881	1890	Jim Whitney	191	204			11	11	202	215	0.484	-13
1996	2012	Livan Hernandez*	178	177	7	3	16	9	201	189	0.515	12
1978	1998	Dave Stieb	176	137	1	3	24	12	201	152	0.569	49
1971	1989	Ron Guidry	170	91	5	2	26	27	201	120	0.626	81
1900	1914	Earl Moore	163	154			38	29	201	183	0.523	18
1987	2006	Kevin Appier	169	137	0	2	31	25	200	164	0.549	36
1948	1966	Bob Purkey (2)	129	115	0	1	71	51	200	167	0.545	33

Honorable Mention

1st	Last	Pitcher	W-MLB	L-MLB	W-Post	L-Post	W-Min	L-min	W(All)	L(All)	W%	G+.500
1909	1920	Tom Seaton	92	65			108	84	200	149	0.573	51

The 150-199 Win Club

1st	Last	Pitcher	W-MLB	L-MLB	W-Post	L-Post	W-Min	L-min	W(All)	L(All)	W%	G+.500
1923	1945	Guy Bush	176	136	1	1	22	11	199	148	0.573	51
1936	1955	Johnny Sain (3)	139	116	2	2	58	41	199	159	0.556	40
1902	1915	Frank Smith	139	111			60	53	199	164	0.548	35
1947	1965	Harvey Haddix (1)	136	113	2	0	61	33	199	146	0.577	53
1979	1997	Fernando Valenzuela*	173	153	5	1	20	16	198	170	0.538	28
1963	1983	Rudy May	152	156	0	1	46	29	198	186	0.516	12
1979	1999	Tom Candiotti	151	164	0	1	47	40	198	205	0.491	-7
1951	1971	Camilo Pascual	174	170	0	1	23	16	197	187	0.513	10
1977	1994	Bill Gullickson	162	136	1	2	34	24	197	162	0.549	35
1976	1994	Bruce Hurst	145	113	3	2	49	31	197	146	0.574	51
1941	1962	Gerry Staley (3)	134	111	0	1	63	35	197	147	0.573	50
1888	1899	Frank Dwyer	177	151			19	16	196	167	0.540	29
1903	1917	Ed Reulbach*	182	106	2	0	10	5	194	111	0.636	83
1944	1966	Joe Nuxhall	135	117			59	67	194	184	0.513	10
1893	1906	Red Donahue	164	175			28	22	192	197	0.494	-5
1983	1998	Doug Drabek	155	134	2	5	34	25	191	164	0.538	27
1984	2005	Al Leiter	162	132	2	3	26	46	190	181	0.512	9
1885	1896	Ice Box Chamberlain	157	120	2	3	31	28	190	151	0.557	39
1918	1936	Tom Zachary	186	191	3	0			189	191	0.497	-2
1981	1996	Frank Viola	176	150	3	1	10	11	189	162	0.538	27
1999	2013	Barry Zito	165	143	6	3	18	7	189	153	0.553	36
1965	1979	Ken Holtzman	174	150	6	4	8	3	188	157	0.545	31
1971	1989	Rick Rhoden	151	125	0	1	37	34	188	160	0.540	28
1883	1890	Ed Morris	171	122			16	6	187	128	0.594	59
1984	2000	Tim Belcher	146	140	4	2	37	35	187	177	0.514	10
1983	2001	Bret Saberhagen	167	117	2	4	17	10	186	131	0.587	55
1939	1956	Howie Pollet (2)	131	116	0	1	55	16	186	133	0.583	53
1948	1967	Vernon Law (2)	162	147	2	0	21	20	185	167	0.526	18
1933	1949	Mort Cooper	128	75	2	3	54	55	184	133	0.580	51
1891	1901	Nig Cuppy	162	98	0	1	21	14	183	113	0.618	70
1922	1937	Rube Walberg (*1)	155	141	1	1	27	27	183	169	0.520	14
1886	1895	Mark Baldwin*	154	165			29	25	183	190	0.491	-7
1990	2010	Mike Hampton	148	115	2	4	33	25	183	144	0.560	39
1892	1908	Pink Hawley*	167	179			15	15	182	194	0.484	-12
1880	1888	Larry Corcoran*	177	89			3	4	180	93	0.659	87
1991	2006	Brad Radke	148	139	2	3	30	35	180	177	0.504	3
1977	1996	Scott Sanderson	163	143	0	0	16	8	179	151	0.542	28
1991	2007	Aaron Sele	148	112	0	6	31	18	179	136	0.568	43
1951	1969	Johnny Podres	148	116	4	1	26	16	178	133	0.572	45
1926	1941	Bump Hadley	161	165	2	1	14	7	177	173	0.506	4
1994	2013	Chris Carpenter	144	94	10	4	23	41	177	139	0.560	38
1950	1965	Frank Lary (2)	128	116			48	26	176	142	0.553	34
1928	1949	Thornton Lee*	117	124			59	66	176	190	0.481	-14
1882	1890	Guy Hecker*	175	146					175	146	0.545	29
1981	1995	Mike Moore	161	176	4	3	10	9	175	188	0.482	-13
1971	1985	Steve Rogers	158	152	3	1	14	26	175	179	0.494	-4
1964	1979	Jim Lonborg	157	137	2	3	16	12	175	152	0.535	23
1969	1986	Jim Slaton	151	158	1	0	23	8	175	166	0.513	9
1889	1903	Sadie McMahon*	173	127			1	0	174	127	0.578	47
1875	1889	George Bradley*	171	151			3	3	174	154	0.530	20
1938	1954	Preacher Roe	127	84	2	1	44	39	173	124	0.582	49
1889	1902	Jouett Meekin	152	133			20	24	172	157	0.523	15
1941	1955	Vic Raschi (3)	132	66	5	3	33	30	170	99	0.632	71
1955	1966	Sandy Koufax	165	87	4	3			169	90	0.653	79
1989	2002	Andy Benes	155	139	1	1	12	6	168	146	0.535	22
1884	1896	Dave Foutz?	147	66	3	6	18	4	168	76	0.689	92
1877	1894	Monte Ward*	164	103	0	0			164	103	0.614	61
1931	1946	Hal Schumaker (3)	158	121	2	2	4	2	164	125	0.567	39
1971	1985	Burt Hooton	151	136	6	3	7	4	164	143	0.534	21
1906	1920	Jack Coombs	158	110	5	0			163	110	0.597	53
1932	1955	Spud Chandler* (2)	109	43	2	2	47	41	158	86	0.648	72

Honorable Mention

1st	Last	Pitcher	W-MLB	L-MLB	W-Post	L-Post	W-Min	L-min	W(All)	L(All)	W%	G+.500
1997	2013	Hiroki Kuroda	68	70	2	2	103	89	173	161	0.518	12
1999	2013	Daisuke Matsuzaka	53	40	3	1	117	74	173	115	0.601	58

The Rest

1st	Last	Pitcher	W-MLB	L-MLB	W-Post	L-Post	W-Min	L-min	W(All)	L(All)	W%	G+.500
1871	1876	Dick McBride	149	78					149	78	0.656	71
1872	1877	Candy Cummings*	145	94			1	7	146	101	0.591	45
1914	1935	Babe Ruth	94	46	3	0	22	9	119	55	0.684	64

After the Mets’ 20-inning, 2-1 loss on Saturday to the mightless Marlins, Matt Harvey has 8 no-decisions in his last 9 starts. Harvey is now 5-0 in 13 starts; if he continued at his current season’s pace, he would finish the season 14-0 with 22 no-decisions in 36 starts. That would set a major league record for no-decisions in a single season. How unusual a year is Harvey having?
Harvey opened 2013 as the one shining bright spot in a dismal Mets season, a season that got even more dismal with Monday’s demotion to AAA of Ike Davis, who led the team in homers by a double-digit margin last season. The Mets’ increasingly punchless offense (even with the stalwart presence of David Wright) is 11th in the NL in scoring and batting an anemic .226/.294/.369 entering Tuesday’s action, and it has caught up to Harvey with a vengeance. After scoring 6 runs a game and going 5-0 in Harvey’s first five starts, the Mets have scored just 2.75 runs a game in his last 8 starts, going 3-5.
Some of those no-decisions have been especially agonizing. On May 28, Harvey went 8 innings against the Yankees, allowed one run, struck out 10 and walked nobody. He threw 114 pitches and got a goose egg; the team ended up winning 2-1 for Scott Rice. On May 7, he went the full 9 innings against the White Sox, striking out 12, walking nobody and allowing only an infield single to Alex Rios in the seventh inning. The 10th inning win went to Bobby Parnell. Saturday, the Mets scored in the second inning and were blanked for the next 18 innings, Harvey leaving after 7 innings once again having struck out 6 and walked nobody, and complaining of a sore back to boot. (The game was the fifth 20-inning game in Mets history; only 42 other games that long have been played in MLB history without the Mets’ involvement). Harvey has yet to allow more than 4 runs in a start this season, and has never gone less than 5 innings in a start in his brief Major League career.
Overall, over the last 9 starts, Harvey has a 2.66 ERA, has thrown 6.78 innings and 105 pitches per start, and has not allowed a single unearned run. In the 8 no-decisions, he has a 2.68 ERA, has cracked 100 pitches six times, and averaged 6.71 innings per start. This ought to be the stat line of a winning streak – good pitching, going deep into game after game – yet Harvey has come up empty. While this string of no-decisions is not totally historically unique, it is very unusual.
Bill James recently looked at the odds of a pitcher winning a game if you measure by “Game Score,” his quick formula for measuring how well a pitcher pitched, taking account of things like walks and strikeouts as well as innings and runs. Looking at a sample of all starts between 1952 and 2011, he found that a Game Score of 51 or above is more likely to mean a win than a loss, and a pitcher with a Game Score of 66 or above will generally have a winning percentage of .800 or above in his decisions. James didn’t separately break out rates of no-decision, but using his numbers, a pitcher is likely to get a decision 93% of the time with a Game Score over 80, 88% of the time with a Game Score over 68; Game Scores in the 50s yield a decision around two-thirds of the time. But not for Matt Harvey: he already has no-decisions this season with Game Scores of 97, 76, 67, 58, and 55.
According to the Play Index at Baseball-Reference.com – which currently only goes back to 1916, but no-decisions were rare before then – the Game Score of 97 on May 7 tied a record previously held by Randy Johnson (twice, in a 15-strikeout outing in 1992 and a 20-strikeout outing in 2001) for the highest ever in a 9-inning no-decision, although I would argue that perhaps the best 9-inning no-decision of all time was Francisco Cordova’s 9 no-hit scoreless innings, 2 walks and 10 strikeouts in 1997, for a Game Score of 95). In fact, Baseball-Reference.com lists only 19 starts in baseball history where a pitcher posted a Game Score of 90 or better in 9 innings or less and got a no-decision (there are many no-decisions with Game Scores above 100, from the earlier years when starters would go deep into extra innings, the extreme example being Joe Oeschger and Leon Cadore on May 1, 1920 pitching to a 26-inning complete game 1-1 tie for Game Scores of 153 for Oeschger and 140 for Cadore. You think your team is having a rough patch? Following the 26-inning game, the Dodgers lost in 13 innings on May 2, lost in 19 innings on May 3, then went on in the succeeding weeks to lose in 11 innings on May 7, win in 10 on May 9, win in 14 on May 14, lose in 11 on May 27 and win the second game of a double-header – with Cadore going the distance again – in 10 on May 29. Somehow, they survived this to go on to win the NL Pennant).
Since 1916, the single-season record for no-decisions is 20, by Bert Blyleven for the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates. Blyleven is a particularly odd person to hold this particular record: he got a decision in 80% of his starts over the rest of his career, including a 4-year stretch from 1971-74 when he averaged 34 decisions and 5 no-decisions a year. (In 1973, Blyleven had 37 decisions in 40 starts, going 20-17 with a 2.52 ERA). As late as the 1985-86 seasons, he had 64 decisions and only 9 no-decisions, and in 1985 was the last pitcher to throw more than 20 complete games in a season. But in 1979, pitching for a World Championship team with a deep bullpen (Kent Tekulve, Enrique Romo and Grant Jackson between them averaged 83 appearances and 115 innings apiece and a 2.89 ERA), Blyleven was kept on a short leash by Chuck Tanner. In his 20 no-decisions that season, Blyleven averaged just 5.87 innings per start (going more than 7 innings only twice), posting a 4.76 ERA in those starts, in which the Pirates went 11-9. And he didn’t pitch much differently in the ones they won – in the 11 no-decisions the Pirates won, Blyleven averaged 5.76 innings per start with a 4.69 ERA.
Only five other pitchers have managed as many as 17 no-decisions in a season, and only 15 in total have had 16 no-decisions; here’s how they stack up to Harvey (I’ve listed Runs Allowed rather than ERA so you can see the full effect of Harvey not allowing any unearned runs):

Year	Pitcher	No-Decisions	Starts	ND%	RA	IP/ND
2013	Matt Harvey	8	13	61.5%	2.68	6.7
1979	Bert Blyleven	20	37	54.1%	5.14	5.9
2004	Odalis Perez	18	31	58.1%	3.65	6.3
1986	Andy Hawkins	18	35	51.4%	5.69	5.4
1999	Kenny Rogers	17	31	54.8%	5.91	5.6
2008	Oliver Perez	17	34	50.0%	4.70	5.7
1987	Mike Krukow	17	28	60.7%	6.89	4.6
2009	Randy Wolf	16	34	47.1%	3.43	6.2
2009	Roy Oswalt	16	30	53.3%	4.48	5.4
1978	John Montefusco	16	36	44.4%	4.39	6.0
1999	Eric Milton	16	34	47.1%	6.14	5.5
1917	Lee Meadows	16	36	44.4%	5.06	4.7
1980	Dennis Lamp	16	37	43.2%	6.08	5.0
1979	Randy Jones	16	39	41.0%	4.19	6.3
1993	Juan Guzman	16	33	48.5%	5.72	6.0
2009	Joba Chamberlain	16	31	51.6%	6.20	4.4

As you can see – after we pause briefly while all the Mets fans still reading this stab their eyes out upon seeing Harvey on a chart next to Oliver Perez and Kenny Rogers – Harvey sticks out like a sore thumb on this list, both in terms of how well and how far he pitched into games and the high ratio of no-decisions to decisions. Many of these guys were beneficiaries of winning teams – Guzman went 14-3 for the World Champion 1993 Blue Jays, Krukow was bailed out in games the division champion Giants went on to win on 13 occasions (13 no-decisions in games his team won is the most on record, and he had a 6.51 ERA in those 13 starts). Maybe the most extreme example of a guy who got bailed out constantly by his offense was Dwight Gooden in 1999: Gooden, by then running on fumes, was 3-4 with 15 no-decisions in 22 starts and an 8.25 ERA in his no-decisions. The Indians went 12-3 in those starts anyway, and in the 12 the Indians won, Gooden had a 9.13 ERA and averaged 3.94 innings per start. But that Indians team scored over 1,000 runs; the Mets are on pace to score fewer than 650.
You have to get further down the list to find anybody who had a full season that looks like what Harvey has done so far:
-Cliff Lee in 2012: 3.21 ERA and 7.11 IP/start in 15 no-decisions (half of his 30 starts), going at least 6 innings every time.
-Brad Radke in 2004: 2.52 ERA and 6.66 IP/start in 15 no-decisions out of 34 starts; like Harvey, Radke threw at least 5 innings and allowed no more than 4 earned runs in any of his no-decisions. Amazingly, Radke voluntarily re-signed with the Twins after that season.
-Joey Hamilton in 1995: 2.87 ERA, 6.69 IP/start in 15 no-decisions out of 30 starts, going at least 5 innings every time. However, Hamilton allowed 9 unearned runs, so his Runs Allowed average was a less stellar 3.68.
-Jim Deshaeis in 1990: 2.32 ERA, 6.73 IP/start in 15 no-decisions out of 34 starts, going at least 5 innings each time and never allowing more than 4 runs.
-Pedro Astacio in 1996: 3.16 ERA, 6.64 IP/start in 15 no-decisions out of 32 starts. This 2011 SABR presentation argued that Astacio, followed by Deshaies and Montefusco, had the most effective no-decisions based on where they left their team when they exited the game: Astacio left with a lead 7 times and a tie 7 more, meaning he was bailed out when losing only once in his 15 no-decisions. In Harvey’s case, he left two of his no-decisions with a lead (scores of 6-4 and 2-1), three tied (scores of 2-2, 1-1 and 1-1) and three trailing (by scores of 1-0, 3-2 and 3-2).
-Perhaps the best pitching in a significant number of no-decisions in one season (and a hopeful case for Harvey) was Clayton Kershaw in 2009. Kershaw got 14 no-decisions in 30 starts, and partly that was because he hadn’t yet learned to imitate Greg Maddux’s pitch efficiency: Kershaw averaged 5.9 innings per start in his no-decisions, and lasted a full 7 innings in only 5 of them. But his ERA in those starts was a measly 1.42; Kershaw’s 10 no-decisions with a Game Score of 60 or better in a season is the most on record, edging out Tom Candiotti in 1993 and Roger Clemens in 2005.
-Candiotti in 1993 (yet another Dodger on this list, thank you Chavez Ravine): 14 no-decisions in 32 starts, a 1.97 ERA and 6.86 IP per no-decision.
The list of consecutive starts without a decision is even more dominated by pitchers who were not in Harvey’s league: three pitchers went 10 straight starts without a decision, and they were all terrible over that stretch: Dick Stigman in 1965 (5.48 ERA, 4.26 IP/start), Randy Lerch in 1977 (6.70 ERA, 4.96 IP/start) and John D’Acquisto in 1977 (8.39 ERA, 2.46 IP/start, which makes you wonder why the Padres even bothered with a starting pitcher when it was D’Acquisto’s turn). The longest stretch of pitching well without a decision is Al Downing in 8 spot starts from 1974-76, a 2.17 ERA in 6 innings a start for a Dodger team with tireless workhorses Mike Marshall and Charlie Hough in the bullpen.
Historically, the guys who got the most no-decisions, and most well-pitched no-decisions, in their careers were just the guys who started the most games. Tommy John leads the pack with 188 no-decisions followed by Don Sutton with 182, but John started 700 games, Sutton 756. The most no-decisions with a Game Score of 60 or better is Nolan Ryan with 41, followed by Roger Clemens (34), Greg Maddux (31) and Don Sutton (30), and all four of those guys won more than 320 games.
But in today’s game, Harvey has something more like company. Among pitchers with 67 or more career no-decisions, three have career ERAs below 3.10 in their no-decisions: Felix Hernandez (2.76), Matt Cain (2.95) and Jake Peavy (3.01). (Greg Maddux had a 3.14 ERA in his 159 no-decisions, to go with a 1.83 ERA in his 355 career wins. The lesson, as always: Greg Maddux was awesome.).
The most logical conclusion from looking at history is that Harvey either won’t keep pitching like this or will sooner or later start getting some wins again. Eventually, as Mets fans will remember, hard luck can turn. In 1987, pitching for the defending World Champion Mets (who would lead the league in runs scored), Ron Darling went an agonizing 14 starts without a win from April 26 to July 3 – 0-6 with 8 no-decisions – at a time when he was the team’s only healthy starter. Darling’s 4.76 ERA over that stretch attests that he was often ineffective, but he also had 5 starts in there with a Game Score of 60 or better; the Mets scored just 3.7 runs a game in those starts. But things turned around, Darling went 10-2 in his next 14 starts…until he tore his thumb diving for a bunt that broke up his no-hitter in the sixth inning on September 11, ending his season and leading to Terry Pendleton’s famous home run to ice the division race later that night.
So yes, Mets fans. It will probably get better. But it can always get worse.

David Schoenfield asks a provocative question: is Mike Trout’s Rookie of the Year and MVP runner-up season in 2012 as good as he will get? After all, he’s unlikely to improve much as a fielder or base thief. Schoenfield thinks Trout can still get better as a hitter – for most 20-year-olds, that’s not even a question mark, but most have more room for improvement:

I think it’s possible. He has a walk rate of 10.5 percent — while above the AL average of 8.0 percent — could improve, boosting his on-base percentages over .400, even if he’s more .300 hitter than .330…
What about power? Trout wasn’t projected as more of 20-homer guy coming up, so the 30 home runs was a big surprise, especially in a tough home run park. According to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, eight of Trout’s 30 home runs were “just enough” — a figure that wasn’t near the league-leading figures of Miguel Cabrera (16) and Adrian Beltre (15). Trout’s home run percentage on fly balls was 21.6 percent, which ranked 15th in the majors among those hitters with 300 plate appearances. Remember, as fast as is he, Trout isn’t a small guy, at 6-1 and over 200 pounds. He’s bigger than Mays or Hank Aaron.

Let’s look at some history. Trout’s headline-grabbing number is 10.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at age 20. You can’t really study a player like that systematically, because he’s essentially a sample size of one. Counting only non-pitchers, only 2 other players have cleared 8 WAR at age 20 – Alex Rodriguez and Al Kaline, a list that grows to 5 if you include 21 year olds (Rogers Hornsby, Rickey Henderson, Eddie Mathews). If you compare Trout to players with 10-WAR seasons, the youngest comps are Ted Williams at age 22, and Willie Mays, Ty Cobb and Eddie Collins at age 23. Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle and A-Rod all did it at 24, Hornsby and Babe Ruth at 25 (Ruth only really put in his first full-time season as an outfielder at 24). And of those, if you look at players with 10.5 or more WAR ate age 25 or younger, the only guys on the list with Trout are Mantle (twice) and Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, and Hornsby once each, all of them at 24 or 25. Rare air to be listed with any of these guys, let alone atop a club exclusive to those names.
But to at least get some historical perspective, let’s loosen the criteria.
Of the ten previous players to clear 10 WAR in a season for the first time by age 25, four never topped that season again, and three of those never topped 10 WAR again; only three (Ruth, Hornsby and Mays) cracked 10 WAR more than two more times (the “10+Yrs” column refers only to subsequent seasons):

Player	Age	WAR	Career High	Age	10+ Yrs	dWAR	HoF?
Mike Trout**	20	10.7	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.1	Active
Ted Williams#	22	10.1	10.7	27	2	-0.9	YES
Willie Mays#	23	10.3	10.9	34	5	2.0	YES
Ty Cobb	23	10.1	11.1	30	2	0.4	YES
Eddie Collins	23	10.1		23	0	2.8	YES
Lou Gehrig	24	11.5		24	1	-0.2	YES
Mickey Mantle	24	11.0	11.1	25	2	0.5	YES
Jimmie Foxx	24	10.2		24	0	-0.1	YES
Alex Rodriguez**	24	10.1		24	0	2.3	Active
Babe Ruth	25	11.6	13.7	28	7	-0.5	YES
Rogers Hornsby	25	10.6	12.0	28	4	1.3	YES

**-Active
#-Lost seasons to military service
If you expand the field to players who reached 9 WAR for the first time by age 25, you get 19 players. 7 of the 19 never topped that season, although besides Arky Vaughan all of those were the 24 and 25 year olds. 9 of the 19 went on to have at least 3 more seasons of 9 or more WAR:

Player	Age	WAR	Career High	Age	9+ Yrs	dWAR	HoF?
Mike Trout**	20	10.7	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.1	Active
Alex Rodriguez**	20	9.2	10.1	24	3	1.7	Active
Rogers Hornsby	21	9.7	12.0	28	7	3.5	YES
Ted Williams	22	10.1	10.7	27	6	-0.9	YES
Ty Cobb	22	9.5	11.1	30	4	-0.7	YES
Eddie Collins	22	9.4	10.1	23	2	1.3	YES
Stan Musial*#	22	9.3	10.8	27	1	0.7	YES
Willie Mays#	23	10.3	10.9	34	6	2.0	YES
Cal Ripken	23	9.8	11.3	30	1	3.5	YES
Mickey Mantle	23	9.2	11.1	25	3	1.1	YES
Arky Vaughan	23	9.1		23	0	0.6	YES
Shoeless Joe Jackson$	23	9.0	9.3	24	1	-0.1	Ineligible
Lou Gehrig	24	11.5		24	4	-0.2	YES
Jimmie Foxx	24	10.2		24	1	-0.1	YES
Tris Speaker	24	9.8		24	1	0.4	YES
Babe Ruth	24	9.7	13.7	28	9	0.2	YES
Barry Bonds	25	9.5	11.6	36	5	2.5	Not Yet
Adrian Beltre**	25	9.3		25	0	2.5	Active
Terry Turner	25	9.2		25	0	5.4	No

**-Active
#-Lost seasons to military service
*-1st 9-WAR season vs war-depleted competition
$-Banned from baseball in mid-career
As you can see, I included here as well, under the heading dWAR, the player’s defensive Wins Above Replacement, to see if players whose defensive value was a big part of scaling these heights were more or less likely to repeat. At the extreme end you have Terry Turner, who made this list on a fluke defensive season for the 1906 Indians (the defensive stats of Nap Lajoie’s Indians are a whole separate historical controversy). That said, the guys with some significant defensive value, like Trout, do seem to have been more likely to re-appear on the list, even guys like Hornsby and Bonds who were no longer valuable defensive players by the time of their best offensive seasons.
Stretching this to players who reached 8 WAR before age 25, you get a total set of 40 players, and almost half of them never matched the first season when they reached that level:

Player	Age	WAR	Career High	Age	8+ Yrs	dWAR	HoF?
Mike Trout**	20	10.7	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.1	Active
Alex Rodriguez**	20	9.2	10.1	24	7	1.7	Active
Al Kaline	20	8.0	8.2	26	1	0.4	YES
Rogers Hornsby	21	9.7	12.0	28	8	3.5	YES
Rickey Henderson	21	8.7	9.8	26	2	1.3	YES
Eddie Mathews	21	8.0		21	1	0.3	YES
Ted Williams	22	10.1	10.7	27	7	-0.9	YES
Ty Cobb	22	9.5	11.1	30	5	-0.7	YES
Eddie Collins	22	9.4	10.1	23	5	1.3	YES
Stan Musial*#	22	9.3	10.8	27	5	0.7	YES
Dick Allen	22	8.5		22	1	0.3	No
Cal Ripken	22	8.0	11.3	30	2	2.2	YES
Joe DiMaggio#	22	8.0	8.6	26	1	0.4	YES
Willie Mays#	23	10.3	10.9	34	10	2.0	YES
Mickey Mantle	23	9.2	11.1	25	4	1.1	YES
Arky Vaughan	23	9.1		23	1	0.6	YES
Shoeless Joe Jackson$	23	9.0	9.3	24	1	-0.1	Ineligible
Reggie Jackson	23	8.8		23	0	0.1	YES
Ken Griffey jr.	23	8.5	9.5	26	2	0.9	Not Yet
Albert Pujols**	23	8.4	9.4	29	6	-0.8	Active
Joe Cronin	23	8.0		23	0	2.7	YES
Andruw Jones**	23	8.0		23	0	2.7	Active
Lou Gehrig	24	11.5		24	6	-0.2	YES
Jimmie Foxx	24	10.2		24	3	-0.1	YES
Tris Speaker	24	9.8		24	5	0.4	YES
Babe Ruth	24	9.7	13.7	28	10	0.2	YES
Ron Santo	24	8.6	9.6	27	2	0.8	YES
Johnny Bench	24	8.5		24	0	2.4	YES
Willie Wilson	24	8.3		24	0	2.2	No
Ralph Kiner	24	8.1		24	0	-0.1	YES
David Wright**	24	8.1		24	0	1.4	Active
Bobby Grich	24	8.0		24	0	3.9	No
Ryne Sandberg	24	8.0		24	0	2.0	YES
Barry Bonds	25	9.5	11.6	36	8	2.5	Not Yet
Adrian Beltre**	25	9.3		25	0	2.5	Active
Terry Turner	25	9.2		25	0	5.4	No
Will Clark	25	8.5		25	0	-0.1	No
Hank Aaron	25	8.4	9.1	27	5	-1.1	YES
Snuffy Stirnweiss*	25	8.1	8.2	26	1	2.5	No
Joe Medwick	25	8.1		25	0	-0.5	YES

**-Active
#-Lost seasons to military service
*-1st 9-WAR season vs war-depleted competition
$-Banned from baseball in mid-career
Stirnweiss was a dominant player in 1944-45 who was merely ordinary when the real ballplayers returned from the war. Grich and Andruw Jones, like lesser versions of Turner (though better players over their careers), were pushed to these heights by unusually valuable glovework.
Mike Trout is a highly unusual player; we just don’t have much precedent for a guy this good, this young, with this broad a base of skills and some of them (like his defense and base stealing) so well-polished already. You can compare him to Mays, Mantle and Cobb, but almost by definition you can’t project a player to have that kind of career. What we can say is that players who have MVP-caliber seasons at age 25 or younger (1) tend, more often than not, to go on to great careers but (2) tend, as often as not, to never have a better season simply because it’s hard to put it all together like this at any age.

RA Dickey this season finished 20-6 for a 74-88 team: 14 over .500 for a team that was 14 under. How unusual is that accomplishment? I ran through the past century looking for examples, focusing on pitchers who (1) won 15 or more games and (2) finished 5 or more games over .500 (3) for a team that was below .500 when they didn’t pitch. I came up with 73 75 examples; I’m sure there are more I missed, but I think I got the major ones. The chart below is ranked by multiplying the pitcher’s number of games above .500 by the team’s number of games below .500 the rest of the time (“x”); the “TOT” column adds the two:

Continue reading Dickey Rises Above

Mike Trout recently played his 162nd major league game, in which time he scored 136 runs. How unusual is that? Pretty unusual, at least in modern baseball. Baseball-Reference.com has game logs going back to 1918, and while I can’t run a systematic search, I’m pretty sure this is a complete list of the players since 1918 to score 120 or more runs in their first 162 major league games – 8 Hall of Famers out of 26 (plus at least one, Ichiro, who is sure to be a 9th, plus others who still could and a handful of guys who would have made it if they’d stayed healthier or out of World War II). Ages and years are listed by the age the player was in the season when he played his 162nd game:

Player	Runs	Age	Year
Joe DiMaggio	154	22	1937
Ted Williams	146	21	1940
Lloyd Waner	142	22	1928
Johnny Frederick	142	28	1930
Mike Trout	136	20	2012
Vada Pinson	136	20	1959
Barney McCoskey	135	23	1940
Roy Johnson	133	27	1930
Jackie Robinson	132	29	1948
Jim Gilliam	132	25	1954
Dom DiMaggio	131	24	1941
Ichiro Suzuki	130	28	2002
Kiki Cuyler	130	26	1925
Frank Robinson	128	21	1957
Charlie Keller	127	23	1940
Nomar Garciaparra	126	23	1997
Hanley Ramirez	124	23	2007
Bobby Bonds	123	23	1969
Pete Reiser	123	22	1941
Chuck Klein	122	24	1929
Hal Trosky	121	21	1934
Augie Galan	121	23	1935
Carlos Beltran	120	22	1999
Johnny Pesky	120	26	1946
Lou Boudreau	120	22	1940
George Watkins	120	31	1931

As you can see, the list includes a number of guys (Ichiro, Jackie Robinson, Johnny Frederick, Roy Johnson, George Watkins) who arrived in the majors as seasoned veterans in mid-career. (This is not the case for Johnny Pesky, who scored 105 runs in 147 games as a 23 year old rookie, then spent 3 years at war before scoring 115 runs in 1946 when he returned). It’s also heavily dominated by the high-scoring 1925-41 period. The number of players who compiled a scoring record like Trout’s at such a young age is short and dominated by immortals.
I won’t chart them, but others of note: Lloyd Waner’s better brother Paul 113, Roy Johnson’s better brother Bob 118, Joe DiMaggio & Charlie Keller’s outfield-mate Tommy Henrich 116 and their teammate Lyn Lary 116, Albert Pujols 115, A-Rod 117, Ryan Braun 116, Dick Allen 119, Frank Thomas 110, Julio Lugo 111, Denard Span 115, Terrence Long 115, Steve Henderson 112, Wally Moses 116, the ill-fated Len Koenecke 110, Earl Averill 111, Earle Combs 115, Vince Coleman 115, Minnie Minoso 117, Bobby Thomson 115, Dan Uggla 111, Gary Redus 112, Al Smith 112, Fred Lynn 108, Lu Blue 109, Jose Reyes 103, Adam Dunn 108, Richie Ashburn 107, Pee Wee Reese 107, Dan Gladden 108, Andrew McCutchen 108, Bob Meusel 101, Jim Bottomley 101, Walt Dropo 106, Chick Fullis 108, Juan Samuel 109.
You can go back and find a few more in the 1900-17 period – Federal League star Benny Kauff scored 124 runs in his first 159 games, Roy Thomas 137 runs in his first 150 games, Lefty Davis scored 150 runs in his first 171 games in 1901-02. The 19th century is different, of course – Willie Keeler scored 191 runs in his first 170 games, Billy Hamilton 165 runs in his first 172 games, Hugh Duffy 204 runs in his first 207 games, and going all the way back to the beginning in 1871, in the days before gloves, groundskeeping or even fixed fielding positions, Ross Barnes scored 272 runs in his first 136 National Association games and 197 runs in his first 165 National League games.
But if you have to go back that far, it should tell you what a special player Trout really is.

Why was 1968 the Year of the Pitcher? Let me present to you an unorthodox theory that has been percolating in my brain since I noticed a pattern leafing through the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract a quarter century ago: the dominance of pitching that season was exacerbated by an unusual run of injuries to a number of the game’s best hitters, combined to some extent with an unusual run of good health by the game’s best pitchers.
Lest we get too carried away with the theory, let me step back a bit. The offensive/defensive conditions of the game change every year, sometimes due to years-long structural factors, sometimes due to weather, chance or other one-year factors. Scoring dropped throughout the 1960s due to a number of the former: a bigger strike zone, more pitcher-friendly parks, higher mounds, more night games, a reduction in the stigma against strikeouts without a corresponding emphasis on plate patience. Those factors affected the game from 1963-68, and some of them continued to linger into the late 1970s. 1968 was simply the most extreme example of its era. Scoring was down from 3.77 runs per team per game to 3.42 (a drop of almost 10%), rising back in 1969 to 4.07.
But I have wondered for years if there was something specific at work that made 1968 stand out from the years around it, and if you look one by one at the injuries to major offensive stars that season, a pattern suggests itself. I do not promise a systematic comparison of 1968 to other seasons in this regard, but take a look at the anecdotal evidence with me and see if you agree.
The Walking Wounded
Let’s start with the core group of players, most of them major offensive stars, who were hampered by injury in 1968. I’ll list each player’s age as of 1968 in parentheses, and a chart showing each player’s plate appearances and Offensive Wins Above Replacement (OWAR) for the 1967-1968-1969 seasons (source: baseball-reference.com).
Joe Morgan (24)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
580	5.6	27	0.3	657	4.7

Morgan wasn’t the biggest star KO’d by injury in 1968, but he was the most total loss. While he wasn’t recognized as a major star until he escaped the Astrodome in 1972, Morgan had been second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 1965, an All-Star in 1966, batted .276/.385/.408 and averaged 20 steals a year from 1965-67, and .253/.366/.392 with 44 steals a year from 1969-71, plus another All-Star appearance in 1970. But 10 games into the 1968 season, with Morgan’s OBP at .444, he tore up his knee when Tommie Agee ran into him at second base, ending his season.
Harmon Killebrew (32)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
689	6.9	371	2.1	709	7.5

The biggest home run threat of the 1960s, Killebrew hit .266/.379/.546 from 1959-67, including 44 homers, 131 walks and a second-place MVP finish in 1967. He hit .267/.409/.534 from 1969-71, including 49 homers, 145 walks, 140 RBI and an MVP Award in 1969. In 1968, Killebrew was off his game but still productive (.210/.361/.420, OPS+ of 131); he was batting .204/.347/.392 when he tore a hamstring stretching for a throw in the All-Star Game, and didn’t return until September, when he batted .257/.458/.629 but started only 10 games and managed just 48 plate appearances.
Roberto Clemente (33)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
632	8.0	557	4.7	570	6.0

Clemente won the 1966 NL MVP and won his third batting title in four years in 1967, batting .357/.400/.554 and driving in 110 runs. Overall, he batted .332/.375/.503 from 1961-67, and .346/.395/.532 from 1969-71. But in 1968, Clemente was hampered by a nasty shoulder injury he suffered in the offseason at his home in Puerto Rico when a steel railing he was climbing on collapsed on his patio, sending him hurtling down a hill. Clemente tried to play through it, but later admitted that he should have at least skipped spring training; he hit .211/.237/.368 through May 24 before returning to something like his usual form, ending the season at .291/.355/.482.
Frank Robinson (32)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
563	6.5	508	4.3	643	6.4

Robinson, the 1966 Triple Crown winner, was slowed slightly in 1967 by vision problems from a violent collision, which may have lingered the following year; in 1968 he added mumps and a sore arm. He batted .314/.407/.609 in 1966-67 and .299/.400/.524 in 1969-71, but missed 32 games and hit .268/.390/.444 in 1968.
Al Kaline (33)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
550	6.3	389	2.7	518	2.5

Kaline batted .307/.385/.509 from 1955-67, and had arguably his best season as a hitter in 1967, batting .308/.411/.541 (OPS+ of 176). He was still a productive hitter in 1968, batting .287/.392/.428 (OPS+ of 146), and despite an off year in 1969, his batting line from 1969-72 was a robust .286/.378/.456. But Kaline missed six weeks in 1968 after his arm was broken when he was hit by a pitch from Lew Krausse on May 25.
Willie Stargell (28)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
536	2.8	496	2.2	594	5.6

Stargell battled injuries in both 1967 and 1968 before getting healthy and returning to form in 1969:

Willie’s production fell off in 1967. With Mota continuing to hit .300, Stargell found himself often benched against lefthanders. He suffered through injuries as well that year, crashing into the wall twice in a span of three days and experienced tendonitis in his shoulder. His weight remained and issue and inactivity did not help it. In 1968, Stargell first injured a knee and later suffered a concussion and face lacerations making a spectacular catch while crashing into the Forbes Field scoreboard and ended up hitting .237, the lowest of his career as a regular player as he battled headaches for the rest of the season.

On the whole, Stargell declined from .315/.381/.581 with 102 RBI in 1966 (his second straight 100 RBI year and third straight slugging .500) to .271/.365/.465 with 73 RBI in 1967 and .237/.315/.441 with 67 RBI in just 128 games in 1968. Stargell would bat .307/.382 /556 in 1969 and .289/.375/.555 from 1969-79.
Joe Torre (27)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
534	3.9	464	2.5	678	3.2

If you’re keeping score at home, that’s six Hall of Fame hitters between the ages of 24 and 33. Torre might be a seventh, although he’s likely to be inducted as a manager. Torre batted .301/.364/.487 from 1963-67 and .326/.394/.501 from 1969-71, but in 1968 he missed 47 games with injuries including a fractured cheekbone that caused him to miss a month after being beaned on April 18 by Chuck Hartenstein and a fractured hand in September, batting .271/.332/.377 on the season. As Torre describes the beaning these days:

Hank Aaron was on first base, trying to steal, and as Torre tried to sneak a peak back at the catcher and didn’t pick up the pitch in time before it hit him. The pitch broke his palate, and Torre said the toughest part was staying in bed for a long period of time.

Tony Conigliaro (23)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
389	3.1	0	–	566	0.4

I retold Tony C’s familar and sad story recently; he was one of baseball’s major rising star sluggers when he suffered a horrific beaning in August 1967, and missed the entire 1968 season.
Rico Carty (28)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
496	1.1	0	–	339	3.2

A devastating hitter when healthy, Rico Carty batted .330/.388/.554 as a rookie in 1964, .324/.382/.505 from 1964-66 before struggling to hit .255/.329/.401 in 1967 while playing with a separated shoulder. Carty then missed the entire 1968 season with tuberculosis. He would return to bat .357/.434/.570 in 1969-70 before his next big injury, to his knee.
Rico Petrocelli (25)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
556	3.0	451	1.8	643	7.9

Like a few others listed above, Petrocelli had injury problems in 1967 that worsened in 1968 before bouncing back healthy in 1969. In Petrocelli’s case, it was a bad elbow that cost him 39 games. He had batted .259/.330/.420 as a 24 year old in 1967 (OPS+ of 113) and would enjoy a monster breakout 40-homer .297/.403/.589 season in 1969, hitting .269/.363/.506 from 1969-71 (OPS+ of 134). But hampered by the elbow injury, Petrocelli hit just .234/.292/.374 (OPS+ of 92) in 1968.
Don Mincher (30)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
563	4.3	457	0.5	514	2.1

Yet another beaning victim. Mincher, a productive if unspectacular slugger, batted .255/.348/.488 (OPS+ 134) from 1962-67, including .273/.367/.487 (OPS+ 156) in 1967. He would go on to bat .257/.359/.448 (OPS+ 129) from 1969-71. But 1968 was a significant off year, as he batted .236/.312/.368 (OPS+ 111) and missed 42 games, including 10 games in April and the last 20 games of the season. The main cause was a horrific April 11 beaning by a 90+ mph Sam McDowell fastball to the jaw, which knocked out teeth and caused Mincher permanent hearing loss in one ear and “gave me equilibrium problems.”
Tommie Agee (25)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
584	2.3	391	-0.2	635	3.7

The April collision with Morgan wasn’t Agee’s first bruising of 1968; he was hospitalized after being beaned by Bob Gibson on the first pitch of spring training, and things didn’t get better from there: the 1966 AL Rookie of the Year had batted .256/.315/.412 (OPS+ 117) in 1966-67 and would bat .280/.348/.456 (OPS+ 121) from 1969-71, but in 1968 he was helpless, batting .217/.255/.307 (OPS+ 69) and doing even that well only with a strong September; Agee was hitting .109 in mid-May, .165 in mid-July and .181/.222/.265 on August 26 before regaining his bearings to hit .371/.397/.486 in his last 25 games.
Tony Oliva (29)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
615	3.4	528	3.4	692	3.6

Another outstanding talent (he was feared enough to lead the AL in intentional walks in 1968) whose career was degraded by injuries, the 1964 Rookie of the Year and 1965 Al MVP runner-up batted .317/.363/.518 from 1964-66 (OPS+ 143), .322/.362/.517 (OPS+ 140) from 1969-71. He had had a mild off year (.289/.347/.463, OPS+ 129) in 1967, and in that context his 1968 season (.289/.357/.477, OPS+ 145) looks like the same old Oliva, just hitting under more difficult conditions. But Oliva averaged 664 plate appearances a year from 1964-67 and 683 a year in 1969-70, whereas he missed 34 games in 1968 including the entire month of September with a separated shoulder, and finished the season with just 68 RBI.
Dick Allen (26)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
540	6.8	605	5.3	506	4.9

Allen, a better hitter than a good many Hall of Fame sluggers, was still a dangerous hitter in 1968 and had injury problems that season that were not unusual for him, but he may still deserve mention here; he suffered a groin injury and may have been suffering some aftereffects from the injury that ended his 1967 season (he tore up his hand pushing it through a car headlight on August 24); Allen started slowly, batting .257/.330/.396 through May 17, and while he caught fire after missing 8 games in early June, he ended up tailing off, batting .240/.334/.498 in the season’s second half (this being Dick Allen, that could also have been the results of a bruised ego, as he was feuding with his manager at the time). On the whole, Allen hit .312/.400/.601 in 1966-67 (OPS +178) – only Frank Robinson was better over that period – and .297/.390/.557 from 1969-74 (OPS+ 166). In that context, 1968 counts as a mild off year for Allen, .263/.352/.520 (OPS+ 160) with a career-high 161 strikeouts.
Adding Up The Damage

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
7827	64.0	5244	29.6	8264	61.7

I don’t want to overstate the effect of this rash of injuries to productive hitters, but the numbers do suggest that injuries to these 14 hitters alone were enough to have some effect at the margins. Combined, they accounted for 6.4% of all Major League plate appearances in 1967, 4.3% in 1968, and – with expansion – 5.6% in 1969. But not just any plate appearances – almost all of these guys were stationed at the top or middle of their teams’ batting orders, and the combined loss of 30-35 offensive WAR in a 24-team league is a lot of holes to fill.
In doing any sort of comparison, of course, we also have to consider that the 1969 bounce-back is inflated by expansion, which not only dilutes talent levels but tends to dilute them asymmetrically in favor of more scoring (marginal pitchers trapped in the minors are mostly there because they can’t pitch, whereas many marginal non-pitchers are trapped in the minors because they can hit but can’t field; adding more bad pitchers and a mix of bad hitters with good hitters who can’t field will, on balance, bring more scoring).
More Off Years
Of course, those 14 hitters were not the only ones to have a tough time in 1968, even relative to the league. To complete the picture, I’ll run here through a number of other players who had off years, some of them obviously not injury-related and others perhaps caused by unknown or minor injuries. But absent some reason to classify some of them as injury problems, I would not consider them as part of the analysis.
Carl Yastrzemski (28)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
680	9.5	664	7.1	707	3.8

Yaz was healthy and one of the three best hitters in baseball in 1968, but his 1967 Triple Crown season was not something he could repeat. Nobody had a year like it in 1968.
Orlando Cepeda (30)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
644	6.0	656	1.4	636	1.8

The unanimous 1967 NL MVP had back-to-back off years in 1968-69 (dropping from .314/.381/.500, OPS+ 148 to .252/.316/.402 OPS+ 108) before a big bounce back in 1970 (.305/.365/.543, OPS+ 136). I suspect his chronically bad knees may have had something to do with that, but that’s just guesswork.
Tim McCarver (26)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
540	4.5	467	1.8	576	1.8

Injuries for catchers can just accumulate. McCarver’s reduced playing time and production suggest he was banged up.
Paul Blair (24)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
619	3.9	467	0.0	685	3.9

I don’t know of any injuries – Blair’s famous beaning by Ken Tatum came in 1970 – but 1968 was a total loss for him with the bat, .211/.277/.318 (OPS+ 81), compared to .288/.338/.435 (OPS+ 126) in 1966-67 and .277/.335/.460 (OPS+ 119) in 1969-70.
Tommy Davis (29)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
621	2.5	482	-1.2	492	-1.0

Again, I don’t know of specific injuries, but Davis had many knee problems in his career and fell off dramatically relative to the league in 1968.
George Scott (24)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
641	3.5	387	-3.3	617	1.6

The Boomer had his usual spats with management over his weight, but seems to have just lost his batting eye in 1968, dropping from .303/.373/.465 to .171/.236/.237; he would go on to a long, productive career as a slugger.
Curt Blefary (24)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
645	2.7	535	0.3	632	1.5

I’m not aware of any injury problems; the 1965 AL Rookie of the Year, who batted .252/.361/.447 (OPS+ 133) just fell apart, .200/.301/.322 (OPS+ 89) despite improving his K/BB ratio significantly. He would hit .253/.347/.393 (OPS+ 109) in the Astrodome the following year, his last as a productive hitter.
Rod Carew (22)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
561	2.8	492	1.8	504	4.7

Carew was healthy and still just a young hitter coming into his own; his playing time was held back by his military commitments, which included 19 games away from the team in June 1968 to attend a summer training camp.
Tony Gonzalez (31)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
568	4.1	471	1.4	561	-0.4

Gonzalez, a good hitter earlier in the decade, had a fluke year in 1967, hitting .339/.396/.472, but was never really a major offensive threat after that.
Wes Parker (28)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
496	1.5	534	0.7	541	3.4

Parker missed 3 weeks in August, but this doesn’t seem all that unusual for him, and he was ordinarily not a major offensive star. But he did drop off from .250/.355/.367 (OPS+ 112) in 1966-67 and .301/.375/.444 (OPS+ 129) in 1969-70 to .239/.312/.314 (OPS+ 96) in 1968.
Jim Ray Hart (26)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
665	6.5	535	3.5	271	1.0

A dangerous hitter from 1964-67 (.290/.352/.501, OPS+ 136) Hart’s career was ended prematurely by injuries including shoulder problems, supposedly stemming from being hit in the shoulder by Bob Gibson. He batted .258/.323/.444 (OPS+128) in 1968 and missed 26 games, including a week in May and another in August, compared to the 664 plate appearances he averaged the prior four years, and never played a full season again. It appears that he was never hit by Gibson in a regular season game, so unless Gibson’s just making up the story, it may have happened in a spring game, like Gibson’s beaning of Agee, but the year would be unclear.
Ron Santo (28)

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
697	7.3	682	5.2	687	5.0

Yeah, I didn’t realize Santo and Yaz were the same age, either, which is the main reason I bothered listing him here. He, too, was coming off a big 1967, and was healthy as a horse.
If you just include Parker, who was definitely injured, and Carew, who was definitely unavailable for reasons unrelated to the offensive conditions, the chart I ran above now looks like this:

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
8884	68.3	6270	32.1	9309	69.8

If you then add in Cepeda, McCarver and Tommy Davis, you get this:

1967 PA	OWAR	1968 PA	OWAR	1969 PA	OWAR
10689	81.3	7857	34.1	11013	72.4

Without running the full numbers, there were a few other players who busted out of 2-3 year funks in 1969: Boog Powell (who’d been injured in 1966-67 but was healthy in 1968), Ron Fairly, Willie Davis (Bill James in the 1988 Abstract identified Davis as a guy who lost a lot to the expanded strike zone of 1963-68; he had no injury issues). Hank Aaron’s OWAR for 1967-69 read 8.1-5.2-7.1, but he was healthy. 1968 also saw a couple of long-productive sluggers hit the wall with age: Bob Allison, Leon Wagner. Mickey Mantle was at the end, but was more productive than his numbers looked at first glance, and Mickey had been in gradual decline for a few years.
1969 also saw a bunch of guys bust out big compared to their 1967-68 OWAR. Some were productive hitters in 1968 who blossomed even further with expansion, better hitting conditions and marginally better health: Willie McCovey (who missed 14 games in 1968), Pete Rose (who uncharacteristically missed 2 weeks in July 1968 but still managed 692 plate appearances), Frank Howard, Jimmie Wynn, Reggie Smith, Rusty Staub, Cleon Jones, Tony Perez. There were also a crop of young players who established themselves offensive stars for the first time in 1969, in many cases 1968 rookies or guys who got their first full seasons in 1969: Reggie Jackson, Johnny Bench, Sal Bando, Bobby Bonds, Bobby Tolan, Alex Johnson, Mike Epstein. A passel of young talent can contribute to changing the balance of power between hitters and pitchers, but then 1968’s crop of rookie pitchers included guys like Jerry Koosman and Stan Bahnsen who enjoyed immediate success; it’s probably an effect rather than a cause of the offensive environment that many of the rookie hitters that season needed more time to adjust.
Finally, despite the offensive conditions or in some cases perhaps because of them, there were a handful of major hitters who had better years (measured by OWAR) in 1968 than in 1967 or 1969. Some just had career years (Willie Horton, Ken Harrelson) or at least happened to be right at their peak (Bill Freehan) or enjoying an up year in a series of ups and downs (Felipe Alou, Matty Alou, Roy White). Others just gave up less ground than the rest of the league (Willie Mays, Billy Williams, Lou Brock, Brooks Robinson, Ernie Banks).
The Pitchers
I have thus far addressed the hitters and their problems. But there’s a dog that didn’t bark much in 1968: pitching injuries, normally the bane of every baseball team. For example, contrasted to the number of injured, in-their-prime Hall of Fame hitters in 1968, there were 14 Hall of Fame pitchers active that season. Two were relievers: Hoyt Wilhelm made 72 appearances, Rollie Fingers was 21 and made his Major League debut on September 15. Of the 12 starters, 9 started at least 31 games and threw at least 232 innings, plus Don Sutton, who started 27 games and threw 207 innings, plus 21 year old rookie Nolan Ryan, who started 18 games. And that includes a number of guys who were right at the top of their game – Gibson, Marichal, Seaver, Drysdale, Jenkins. Only Jim Bunning was hurt: Bunning was perhaps the best pitcher in baseball in 1967, but he was 36 and broke down in 1968, starting 26 games and throwing 160 innings on the way to a 4-14 season. Of course, there were two other major injuries: Jim Palmer started only 9 games in 1967 and missed all of 1968 at age 22, and Sandy Koufax, still just 32, had retired after 1966 (Whitey Ford’s career was also ended by injury in early 1967). The Hall of Famers hit 1968 like a bullseye: Bob Gibson, who had the great 1.12 ERA, had missed two months with a broken leg the year before, while Don Drysdale, who set the scoreless innings record that would stand for two decades, blew his arm out the next year. 1968 AL ERA champ Luis Tiant (1.60 ERA) would struggle in 1969 before missing large chunks of 1970-71 with arm woes, and 31 game winner Denny McLain would be effectively finished as a star by arm trouble in 1970, as would longtime AL star Dean Chance in 1969.
Looking more broadly around the league, there were a few other pitching injuries. Tommy John and of course Gary Nolan missed about 10 starts each. Jim Perry pitched well with a reduced workload, but it’s not clear if he had arm trouble or was just in a 2-year state of exile as a swing man. Overall, 67 pitchers started 27 or more games, an average of 2.8 per team – not bad for a league that mostly used four-man rotations. 56 pitchers cleared 200 innings. These were not especially shocking figures for the era, but they do support the view that there were a lot of healthy arms around.
In short, there were a lot of reasons why 1968 became the Year of the Pitcher – but the fact that a lot of the game’s elite hitters were hampered by significant injuries, while most of the game’s best pitchers were healthy, surely had at least some role at the margins in tipping the scales towards the men on the mound.

In a 2-part study in 2011 here and here, I looked at the best and worst team defenses, measured by their Defensive Efficiency Rating (percentage of balls in play turned into outs) relative to the league average. (This is not a park-adjusted measurement, so park effects do play into this).
Let’s look at this year’s contenders, as well as updating the 2011 charts, which were based on early season results. As I explained in the longer article, it is extremely rare for teams to finish 5% or more above or below the league average – the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays, at 95.32%, were the least effective defensive team in the postwar era (they led the AL the following year, which accounted for almost the entirety of their improvement to a pennant-winning team), while only three teams in that era cracked 105%: the 2001 Mariners (tops at 105.52%), 1999 Reds, and 1975 Dodgers (yes, that’s two teams with Mike Cameron in center field). The last team below 95% was the epically awful 1930 Phillies, the last below 94% was the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, who finished 20-134. The 1930 Phillies were also the only team since 1915 to convert fewer than 65% of all balls in play into outs.
Here’s the decade in progress, through June 22, 2012:
National League

	BIP%	NL	High	DER	High %	Low	DER	Low %
2010	69.7%	689	SFG	707	102.61%	PIT	671	97.39%
2011	70.4%	694	CIN	705	101.59%	CHC	678	97.69%
2012	69.3%	690	WSN	718	104.06%	COL	646	93.62%

A couple of things jump out when looking at the NL. First, balls in play are way down this year; the NL in 2010 was the first league ever below 70%, and this season’s average would be a historic low. But team defense is also off from 2011.
As far as team defense, the Nationals’ surge this year may owe a lot to the “K Street” pitching staff that is averaging 8.4 K/9, but the team has also featured the NL’s best defense since the 1999 Reds, beating every NL defense of the past decade by a full percentage point (if they can sustain this pace). At the opposite end of the scale, the Rockies are currently threatening to be the first team since the 1899 Spiders to run below 94% of the league average and the first since the 1930 Phillies to post a DER below 650 (the team opposing batting average on balls in play – BABIP – is an eye-popping .343; there are a few accounting reasons, such as double plays, why DER and BABIP are not precise mirror images). Two of the team’s top relievers, Esmil Rogers and Rex Brothers, have been pounded to the tune of BABIPs above .400, although Brothers has survived this by striking out 35 batters in 24 innings and allowing only one home run.
Regression to the mean is likely for both the Nats and the Rockies, and Colorado in particular is likely to tinker with its lineup to fix the problem (this is what the Astros did after a similarly horrific defensive start in 2011).
American League

	BIP%	AL	High	DER	High %	Low	DER	Low %
2010	71.4%	694	OAK	711	102.45%	KCR	679	97.84%
2011	71.3%	694	TBR	724	104.32%	MIN	677	97.55%
2012	70.0%	697	CHW	715	102.58%	DET	669	95.98%

In the AL, the league DER dropped off sharply from early June 2011 – when I wrote last year’s post and the league average was 702 – to season’s end at 694, leaving the Rays (who slightly improved their DER) with the best defense relative to the league (and in absolute terms) since 2001. Meanwhile, the Twins’ defense collapsed, moving the White Sox out of last.
Turn to 2012, and the White Sox are now atop the AL, and Tampa at 696 is just a hair below the league average. But it’s the Tigers who horrify, with an Opening Day infield of Prince Fielder at first, converted outfielder Ryan Raburn at second, lead-footed Jhonny Peralta at short and Miguel Cabrera – who is not significantly thinner than Fielder – at third. Even the spectacular center field defense of Austin Jackson can’t salvage this D. Raburn, hitting just .165/.225/.245, has largely been supplanted now by Ramon Santiago, but Cabrera, Fielder and Peralta aren’t going anywhere. This presents a real problem. The highest BABIP ever recorded (since such things have been tracked; at present the records go back to 1948) against a pitcher to qualify for the ERA title was .358 vs Kevin Millwood 2008 (four of the ten worst were Texas Rangers – besides (Millwood, you can find Kevin Brown, Aaron Sele, and John Burkett on the list). THis season, you have Max Scherzer at .383 BABIP, Josh Johnson of the Marlins at.365, and Rick Porcello at .350 (no Rockies qualify). Even with some expectation of a regression to the mean, the BABIP vs the whole Tigers staff is .318, so Scherzer and Porcello can expect to struggle with this all year. This is a major reason why Scherzer has a 5.17 ERA despite striking out 11.5 men per 9 innings and a K/BB ratio of 3.45 to 1 (Scherzer has also had home run problems), and Porcello a 4.95 ERA despite allowing just 2.3 walks and 0.9 HR/9 and a 2.3 to 1 K/BB ratio. The 1983 Phillies were the first team ever to finish in first place with the league’s worst DER; it’s been done twice again since (the 1998 Rangers and 2001 Indians), but for a team that was projected as the division leaders based on their offense (which, granted, is 7th in the league in runs) and pitching, that may prove too heavy a burden to carry.

Looking through the baseball-reference.com Play Indexes, which have this data back to 1948, yields some interesting nuggets.
Highest opposing BABIP, 100 or more innings: Glendon Rusch in 2003 (.381). You can beat the balls in play if you’re good enough: BABIP vs Pedro Martinez in 1999: .325.
Most 2B allowed in a season since 1948: 68 by Rick Helling in 2001. Tied for second: 66 by Helling in 2000.
Most 3B allowed in a season since 1948 is a 4-way tie at 17, but Larry Christenson managed it in 1976 in just 168.2 IP. That 1976 Phillies team frequently had Greg Luzinski in LF, Ollie Brown or Jay Johnstone in RF, Garry Maddox in CF.
Most steals allowed in a season: 60 by Dwight Gooden in 1990. Tied for second: Gooden with 56 in 1988. Fewest: 200 innings in a season without allowing a steal has been done 10 times, four of them by Whitey Ford; Kenny Rogers in 2002 is the only one since 1968. Most career steals allowed: 757 off Nolan Ryan, and it’s not even close, Greg Maddux is second at 547. Gooden allowed 452 steals in just 2800.2 innings.
Then there’s the things besides steals that get buried in a pitcher’s line, even looking at BABIP numbers, most of all double plays, doubles and triples. Tommy John induced 605 double plays in his career. Since 1948, Jim Kaat is second with 462, a huge gap. For the 61 pitchers to throw 3000 or more innings over that period – admittedly an elite group – I broke out their GIDP, steals, doubles, triples, and total bases allowed on doubles and triples (23B/9, counting triples twice) per 9 innings. The results are obviously heavily influenced by era and park and teammates, but interesting nonetheless – Tommy John and Dennis Eckersley are as dominant in the most- and least-DP business as Ryan and Whitey Ford are in allowing the most and least steals. I sorted the table by GIDP/9, so for the others:
SB/9: Most – Ryan, Tim Wakefield, Joe Niekro, Eckersley; Fewest – Ford, Billy Pierce, Warren Spahn, Rogers.
3B/9: Most – Robin Roberts, Bob Friend, Curt Simmons (Roberts’ longtime teammate). Fewest – Chuck Finley, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer (Johnson’s Seattle teammate).
23B/9 (largely the same list as 2B/9): Most – Rogers, David Wells, Livan Hernandez, Wakefield. Fewest – Juan Marichal, Ryan, Bob Gibson, Ford.
All of which went a long way to explaining to me why Whitey Ford was so successful in an era when the truly fielding-independent paths to success (K, BB, HR) were limited – few pitchers in the 50s had especially low BB/9, high K/9 or huge variances in HR/9. Not to say there was no variations, but not nearly enough for a pitcher to really distinguish himself (it’s a study for another day to ask whether BABIP was as pitcher-independent in that era as today). But what’s clear is that, with the help of a superior defense and possibly park effects (see here and here), Ford cut off the running game, induced a lot of double plays, and rarely allowed doubles or triples, which in addition to a fairly low HR rate explains how a guy with a 1.37 K/BB ratio from 1950-60 could be such a dominating pitcher year in and year out.
The table is below the fold.

Continue reading Doubled Up

Part 6 of my now very belated “preseason” previews is the NL West; this is the last of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West, NL Central, NL East.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Raw EWSL: 236.50
Adjusted: 246.53
Age-Adj.: 239.48
WS Age: 28.9
2012 W-L: 93-69

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Miguel Montero	20	20
1B	24	Paul Goldschmidt*	3	8
2B	30	Aaron Hill	14	13
SS	29	Stephen Drew	14	14
3B	31	Ryan Roberts	11	9
RF	24	Justin Upton	21	27
CF	28	Chris Young	18	18
LF	30	Jason Kubel	14	12
C2	40	Henry Blanco	4	2
INF	34	Willie Bloomquist	6	5
OF	25	Gerardo Parra	13	16
12	35	Lyle Overbay	10	7
13	37	John McDonald	5	3
SP1	27	Ian Kennedy	14	12
SP2	25	Daniel Hudson#	11	15
SP3	24	Trevor Cahill	11	12
SP4	31	Joe Saunders	10	8
SP5	26	Josh Collmenter*	5	11
RP1	35	JJ Putz	9	8
RP2	27	David Hernandez	8	7
RP3	32	Brad Ziegler	6	5
RP4	31	Craig Breslow	5	4
RP5	42	Takashi Saito	5	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but I expect Goldschmidt to easily surpass 8 Win Shares if healthy.
Also on Hand: Position players – Geoff Blum, Cody Ransom (who has now played 10 years in the majors without once having 100 plate appearances), AJ Pollock.
Pitchers – Joe Paterson, who is off to about the worst possible start imaginable: Paterson allowed as many earned runs (11) in April as he did in 62 appearances all last year. In 2.2 innings he’s faced 26 batters and allowed 18 baserunners (including 2 homers and 4 doubles), and he hasn’t struck out a batter yet. Also Bryan Shaw, Jonathan Albaladejo, Wade Miley, Mike Zagurski, Joe Martinez, Patrick Corbin and Barry Enright.
Analysis: The D-Backs remain the class of this division based on established major league talent, and were the logical preseason favorites. Obviously, the Dodgers’ 4-game lead through May 2 could turn out to be decisive in the long run even if LA comes back to earth. Arizona has also been banged up early, including injuries to Hudson, Drew and Saito. Upton remains a very logical potential MVP candidate.
Henry Blanco is still playing at 40, Matt Treanor at 36, Brian Schneider at 35, Rod Barajas at 36, Dave Ross at 35, Jose Molina at 37. If you know young football players, advise them to consider catching as a career. A little talent, toughness and work ethic will give them a longer, happier career than a lot of NFL stars seem to have.
I haven’t run the numbers, but the Diamondbacks have to have made the most trades involving the largest number of contributing major league players over the past 2 years or so.
San Francisco Giants
Raw EWSL: 209.00
Adjusted: 221.64
Age-Adj.: 213.06
WS Age: 28.9
2012 W-L: 84-78

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Buster Posey#	11	16
1B	24	Brandon Belt*	3	7
2B	34	Freddy Sanchez	11	10
SS	25	Brandon Crawford*	3	6
3B	25	Pablo Sandoval	19	23
RF	28	Nate Schierholtz	10	10
CF	30	Angel Pagan	17	16
LF	27	Melky Cabrera	15	15
C2	22	Hector Sanchez+	0	4
INF	35	Aubrey Huff	17	12
OF	28	Gregor Blanco	2	2
12	32	Ryan Theriot	12	9
13	27	Emmanuel Burriss	1	1
SP1	28	Tim Lincecum	16	15
SP2	27	Matt Cain	16	14
SP3	22	Madison Bumgarner#	9	14
SP4	34	Barry Zito	4	3
SP5	34	Ryan Vogelsong	7	6
RP1	30	Brian Wilson	13	11
RP2	32	Santiago Casilla	7	5
RP3	33	Jeremy Affeldt	6	4
RP4	34	Javier Lopez	5	4
RP5	29	Sergio Romo	8	7

Subjective Adjustments: None, because I’m trying to avoid biasing the results with events since the season started, but clearly Brian Wilson will not be contributing to the Giants this season, and now Sandoval is out with a busted hand. Freddy Sanchez has also been hurt, and it’s not really clear whether he or Burriss ends up as the second baseman once Sanchez is healthy.
Also on Hand: Position players – Brett Pill, Joaquin Arias, Eli Whiteside.
Pitchers – Clay Hensley, Guillermo Mota, Dan Otero, Eric Hacker.
Analysis: As noted above, San Francisco’s injuries make it a lot harder for the Giants to pick themselves off the mat. They have a lineup only Brian Sabean could love, despite the presence of three talented young bats (Sandoval, Posey and Belt). The outfield seems particularly symptomatic of a failure to learn anything from the Aaron Rowand signing. I needn’t belabor the obvious point that Belt needs to be just stuck in the lineup until he figures things out; he batted .320/.461/.528 in the minors last season after .352/.455/.620 in 2010, but the Giants seem unwilling or unable to live with any growing pains.
As for the rotation, there’s been a huge variation thus far in the batting average on balls in play vs various Giants pitchers, and their early successes and failures should seem a lot less dramatic as these even out over the course of the season; it’s why I’m not so worried about Lincecum in particular, whose peripheral numbers are still solid:

PITCHER	BABIP
Dan Otero	0.452
Jeremy Affeldt	0.417
Guillermo Mota	0.367
Tim Lincecum	0.351
LEAGUE AVERAGE	0.295
Ryan Vogelsong	0.292
TEAM AVERAGE	0.277
Madison Bumgarner	0.245
Santiago Casilla	0.192
Clay Hensley	0.188
Barry Zito	0.188
Matt Cain	0.158

Los Angeles Dodgers
Raw EWSL: 204.67
Adjusted: 215.23
Age-Adj.: 200.51
WS Age: 30.2
2012 W-L: 80-82

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	AJ Ellis#	3	3
1B	28	James Loney	17	17
2B	35	Mark Ellis	13	9
SS	24	Dee Gordon*	6	8
3B	32	Juan Uribe	9	7
RF	30	Andre Ethier	20	18
CF	27	Matt Kemp	28	29
LF	29	Tony Gwynn jr	8	7
C2	36	Matt Treanor	4	3
INF	36	Adam Kennedy	8	6
OF	33	Juan Rivera	11	9
12	36	Jerry Hairston jr	11	8
13	26	Justin Sellers*	2	4
SP1	24	Clayton Kershaw	19	21
SP2	27	Chad Billingsley	8	7
SP3	33	Chris Capuano	4	2
SP4	36	Ted Lilly	10	9
SP5	34	Aaron Harang	6	4
RP1	26	Javy Guerra*	4	9
RP2	24	Kenley Jansen#	5	7
RP3	37	Jamey Wright	5	4
RP4	35	Mike MacDougal	4	3
RP5	33	Matt Guerrier	6	4

Subjective Adjustments: None, but as with Goldschmidt, you can assume a pretty high likelihood that Dee Gordon beats 8 Win Shares if he stays healthy all year.
Also on Hand: Position players – Ivan De Jesus jr, the third of the Dodgers’ junior brigade, and Jerry Sands.
Pitchers – Todd Coffey, Blake Hawkesworth, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Rubby de la Rosa (on the DL) and Ronald Belisario (same).
Analysis: The frontline talent is strong and in its prime, but the rest of the team is ancient and creaky. Obviously, banking on Matt Kemp to hit .411/.500/.856 all year is not a wager I would take. Kemp has now raised his career April line to .343/.405/.618; his .297/.354/.526 line in June is the only one even close. Color me unpersuaded that this is really a 90+ win team unless significant help is added to the roster.
The Dodgers’ long-term prognosis, of course, is vastly improved by the end of the McCourt Era, in which – ironically – Frank McCourt proved unable to competently manage even the one part of the team he had experience running (parking lots).
Colorado Rockies
Raw EWSL: 181.83
Adjusted: 193.87
Age-Adj.: 177.50
WS Age: 30.6
2012 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	36	Ramon Hernandez	11	8
1B	38	Todd Helton	13	9
2B	36	Marco Scutaro	14	10
SS	27	Troy Tulowitzki	25	26
3B	26	Chris Nelson*	1	2
RF	33	Michael Cuddyer	16	14
CF	26	Dexter Fowler	15	16
LF	26	Carlos Gonzalez	20	22
C2	23	Wilin Rosario+	1	4
INF	27	Jonathan Herrera#	4	4
OF	26	Tyler Colvin#	4	5
12	27	Eric Young	3	3
13	41	Jason Giambi	6	3
SP1	24	Jhoulys Chacin#	9	13
SP2	49	Jamie Moyer	2	1
SP3	25	Juan Nicasio*	2	4
SP4	33	Jeremy Guthrie	10	7
SP5	31	Jorge de la Rosa	7	5
RP1	37	Rafael Betancourt	9	7
RP2	32	Matt Belisle	7	6
RP3	27	Matt Reynolds#	2	2
RP4	29	Josh Roenicke	1	1
RP5	24	Rex Brothers*	2	5

Subjective Adjustments: None. Jorge de la Rosa is expected back in June and will be welcomed by a tattered rotation, but his numbers reflect his injury last season
Also on Hand: Position players – Jordan Pacheco, Eliezer Alfonzo, Hector Gomez.
Pitchers – Drew Pomeranz, who is presently the third or fourth starter pending the return of de la Rosa and Guthrie (also Chacin, just sent to AAA), Tyler Chatwood, Esmil Rogers, Guillermo Moscoso, Edgmer Escalona, Zach Putnam, Josh Outman.
Analysis: I’ve had a lot of fun on Twitter doing “how old is Jamie Moyer” facts (eg, he was the second-oldest player on the Mariners when he arrived in Seattle in August 1996), but the amazing thing is how dependent the Rockies have been on Moyer. His 3.14 ERA is deceptively low given the unearned runs he’s allowed and a low BABIP, but he’s basically the same old Moyer, which is a valuable thing on a team in Coors Field with terrible pitching.
A further retrospective on the careers of Moyer, Helton and Giambi is something I should return to later.
San Diego Padres
Raw EWSL: 159.67
Adjusted: 178.57
Age-Adj.: 172.33
WS Age: 28.7
2012 W-L: 71-91

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Nick Hundley	11	11
1B	25	Yonder Alonso*	2	5
2B	34	Orlando Hudson	15	13
SS	32	Jason Bartlett	15	12
3B	28	Chase Headley	16	16
RF	29	Will Venable	12	12
CF	25	Cameron Maybin	12	14
LF	29	Carlos Quentin	14	14
C2	31	John Baker	3	2
INF	26	Andy Parrino+	0	4
OF	28	Jesus Guzman*	7	13
12	31	Chris Denorfia	7	6
13	28	Jeremy Hermida	4	4
SP1	28	Ednison Volquez	1	1
SP2	28	Clayton Richard	6	5
SP3	27	Cory Luebke*	4	6
SP4	30	Tim Stauffer	7	6
SP5	24	Anthony Bass*	3	6
RP1	28	Huston Street	9	8
RP2	26	Ernesto Frieri#	3	4
RP3	28	Luke Gregerson	6	5
RP4	25	Andrew Cashner#	1	2
RP5	29	Micah Owings	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but again, I expect Alonso to step up with full-time playing time.
Also on Hand: Position players – Kyle Blanks (now out for the season), Mark Kotsay, Blake Tekotte, Logan Forsythe.
Pitchers – Joe Thatcher, Joe Wieland (presently in the rotation), Josh Spence, Brad Brach, Dale Thayer, Jeff Suppan (recently exhumed from the minors – he’s now in his 20th professional season. He’s also 13 years younger than Moyer), Dustin Moseley (out for the season).
Analysis: What’s worse – that the Padres are hitting .216/.302/.331 as a team, or that that doesn’t even make them the lowest-scoring team in the league (the Pirates are scoring almost half a run per game less)? Yet, the lineup (partly due to a number of good glove men) isn’t full of untalented guys, so much as it lacks anybody with star-level talent, plus the big bat (Quentin) hasn’t played yet, with Guzman subbing for him. It’s actually the rotation, which the park makes look respectable, that’s really weak, and the bullpen is less impressive as well than it seems.

Continue reading 2012 NL West EWSL Report

Part 5 of my now very belated “preseason” previews is the NL East; this is the fifth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West, NL Central.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)
Atlanta Braves
Raw EWSL: 215.17
Adjusted: 248.24
Age-Adj.: 260.94
Subj. Adj.: 257.94
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 99-63

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Brian McCann	21	21
1B	22	Freddie Freeman*	10	34
2B	32	Dan Uggla	22	17
SS	22	Tyler Pastornicky+	0	11
3B	40	Chipper Jones	17	9
RF	22	Jason Heyward#	13	28
CF	29	Michael Bourn	20	20
LF	28	Martin Prado	15	15
C2	35	Dave Ross	7	5
INF	34	Jack Wilson	6	5
OF	34	Matt Diaz	6	5
12	34	Eric Hinske	6	5
13	28	Jose Constanza*	2	3
SP1	25	Tommy Hanson	10	11
SP2	25	Brandon Beachy*	4	8
SP3	26	Jair Jurrjens	10	11
SP4	36	Tim Hudson	14	13
SP5	22	Randall Delgado*	1	3
RP1	24	Craig Kimbrel#	10	13
RP2	27	Johnny Venters#	11	11
RP3	27	Eric O’Flaherty	8	7
RP4	26	Kris Medlen	3	3
RP5	24	Mike Minor#	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: I docked Freddie Freeman 3 Win Shares, down from 34 to 31, and that still seems conservative. Is Freddie Freeman really a reasonable bet to be better than Joey Votto in 2012? That’s where EWSL has him, on grounds of being 22 and coming off a 19 Win Shares season. You have to admit, Freeman’s batting line looks a lot more impressive when you account for his age…but still. Really?
On the other hand, I refuse to adjust Jason Heyward, the team’s other 22-year-old regular, downwards from 28 Win Shares. I can totally see that happening.
Also on Hand: Position players – Juan Francisco, who subbed as the everyday 3B until Chipper was ready to go, and likely will again the next time Chipper gets chipped.
Pitchers – Chad Durbin, Livan Hernandez, and two injured pitchers, Robert Fish and Arodys Vizcaino.
Analysis: EWSL is out on a limb here because 22 year old hitters are its weakness, but the Braves are potentially loaded. They fit the classic profile of a team ready to rip the ears off the division, like the 1986 Mets or the 1984 Tigers: a young team with a few key veretans that had a couple of tough endings and is starting to get written off, but could suddenly gel and hit the stratosphere. The tough part is how cutthroat this division is, but maybe no moreso than the AL East in 1984.
Note that this is the second year in a row that EWSL had the Braves winning the division.
Philadelphia Phillies
Raw EWSL: 285.67
Adjusted: 293.00
Age-Adj.: 247.33
WS Age: 32.0
2012 W-L: 96-66

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	33	Carlos Ruiz	18	15
1B	32	Ryan Howard	22	17
2B	33	Chase Utley	23	19
SS	33	Jimmy Rollins	20	17
3B	36	Placido Polanco	16	12
RF	29	Hunter Pence	22	21
CF	31	Shane Victorino	23	19
LF	34	Juan Pierre	14	12
C2	35	Brian Schneider	3	2
INF	34	Ty Wigginton	5	5
OF	31	Laynce Nix	6	5
12	28	John Mayberry	6	6
13	41	Jim Thome	13	7
SP1	35	Roy Halladay	23	19
SP2	33	Cliff Lee	19	13
SP3	28	Cole Hamels	16	15
SP4	24	Vance Worley*	6	12
SP5	31	Joe Blanton	4	3
RP1	31	Jonathan Papelbon	12	9
RP2	33	Chad Qualls	4	3
RP3	27	Kyle Kendrick	6	5
RP4	26	Antonio Bastardo	5	6
RP5	25	Michael Stutes*	3	6

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Pete Orr, Freddy Galvis.
Pitchers – Joe Savery, Jose Contreras, Brian Sanches, David Herndon, Michael Schwimer.
Analysis: After threatening for years, the piper has come to Philadelphia, and he will be paid. 32 year old Ryan Howard, 33 year old Chase Utley, and 33 year old Cliff Lee are all on the DL. Almost as old as the Yankees, this team is: outside of Worley and the bullpen, the “kids” are 28 year old Cole Hamels and 29 year old Hunter Pence. For all of that, this team won’t go down easy: before the age adjustments, this is a 111-win team, so even when you discount them for age, they are still knocking on the door of triple digits. And if you draw a healthy Halladay, Lee and Hamels in a short series, you’re still in deep yogurt; there has maybe never been a more skillful pitching staff assembled.
Miami Marlins
Raw EWSL: 215.50
Adjusted: 226.27
Age-Adj.: 227.44
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 89-73

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	John Buck	14	11
1B	28	Gaby Sanchez#	14	17
2B	30	Omar Infante	17	15
SS	29	Jose Reyes	20	19
3B	28	Hanley Ramirez	18	18
RF	22	Giancarlo Stanton#	14	30
CF	27	Emilio Bonifacio	13	14
LF	24	Logan Morrison#	9	13
C2	28	Brett Hayes#	2	3
INF	33	Greg Dobbs	4	4
OF	27	Chris Coghlan	8	9
12	29	Donnie Murphy	2	1
13	32	Austin Kearns	4	3
SP1	28	Josh Johnson	12	11
SP2	33	Mark Buehrle	14	10
SP3	28	Anibal Sanchez	10	9
SP4	29	Ricky Nolasco	6	5
SP5	31	Carlos Zambrano	8	7
RP1	34	Heath Bell	13	10
RP2	28	Edward Mujica	6	6
RP3	27	Mike Dunn#	3	3
RP4	26	Ryan Webb	4	4
RP5	26	Steve Cishek*	3	7

Subjective Adjustments: None; I haven’t downgraded Stanton for the same reason as Heyward. This season has a bumper crop of 22-year-olds who will put EWSL’s age adjustment to the test: Heyward, Stanton, Freeman, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Starlin Castro, Ruben Tejada, and Jose Altuve. Note that, as usual, that group is split between guys whose playing time is stepping up to full time (Lawrie, Hosmer, Altuve, Tejada) and those who were already everyday for a full season (Heyward, Castro, Stanton, Freeman). It’s the inevitable growth of the former group that tends to artificially over-project the latter. The effect is most pronounced on 22 year olds because guys who are playing everyday at 21 or 22 tend to be really good.
Also on Hand: Position players – Scott Cousins.
Pitchers – Randy Choate, Chad Gaudin, the potentially ineligible Juan Oviedo (f/k/a Leo Nunez), the injured Jose Ceda.
Analysis: If you can buy this as a third-place team, you see how deep this division is now.
Jose Reyes gets more attention, as does the Miami Medusa in center field that goes off when the Marlins hit a home run:

But the most interesting issue to watch is whether Hanley Ramirez, now batting .236/.330/.381 since the start of 2011, can bounce back. Also, whether Giancarlo (don’t call me Mike) Stanton’s prodigious power will be held back by the new stadium’s cavernous dimensions. So far, so good from the team’s perspective – the Marlins have hit 9 homers at home, 9 on the road, compared to allowing 4 at home and 12 on the road, and Stanton’s lone longball this season came at home – but he’s started slowly overall.
Washington Nationals
Raw EWSL: 185.17
Adjusted: 195.33
Age-Adj.: 195.34
WS Age: 28.2
2012 W-L: 78-84

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	24	Wilson Ramos#	8	12
1B	32	Adam LaRoche	9	7
2B	25	Danny Espinosa#	12	18
SS	26	Ian Desmond#	12	15
3B	27	Ryan Zimmerman	19	20
RF	33	Jayson Werth	20	17
CF	32	Rick Ankiel	6	5
LF	33	Xavier Nady	4	3
C2	27	Jesus Flores	1	1
INF	30	Michael Morse	16	14
OF	28	Roger Bernadina#	7	8
12	37	Mark DeRosa	4	3
13	32	Chad Tracy	1	1
SP1	23	Stephen Strasburg#	3	4
SP2	26	Jordan Zimmermann	6	7
SP3	28	Edwin Jackson	12	11
SP4	26	Gio Gonzalez	13	14
SP5	26	Ross Detwiler	2	3
RP1	35	Brad Lidge	4	3
RP2	25	Henry Rodriguez#	2	3
RP3	27	Tyler Clippard	10	9
RP4	24	Drew Storen#	9	12
RP5	29	Sean Burnett	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Wunderkind Bryce Harper, Mark Teahen, Brett Carroll, Steve Lombardozzi (the younger one), Tyler Moore.
Pitchers – Tom Gorzelanny, Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus, Chien-Ming Wang.
Analysis: The “K Street” Nationals’ hot start has brought back memories of Davey Johnson teams of yore; four starters have ERAs in the ones, three relievers have ERAs ranging from 0.00 to 2.00, and the team is averaging 8.7 K/9. And they’re not really kids, either – Strasburg is already a Tommy John surgery veteran, and he and Henry Rodriguez are the only guys on the staff under 26. For a team that in its seven prior years in DC finished 16th in the NL in pitcher strikeouts twice, 15th three times, 13th once and as high as 10th only in its inaugural season, this is revolutionary. For the first time, it will actually be the offense that has to carry the ball.
Bryce Harper may well be a superstar in the making, but he’s closer in age to Justin Bieber than he is to Strasburg. Harper was 8 years old on 9/11. When he was born, Jamie Moyer was mulling a coaching job offer from the Cubs, his MLB pitching career widely considered over. In other words: don’t expect too much too soon. Harper reached the majors without slugging over .400 above A ball. There are 72 players (including a few pitchers and managers) in the Hall of Fame who had 200 or more plate appearances their first season in the majors; only 18 of those 72 slugged above .450, and only 11 of those were 22 or younger, the youngest being age 20; the highest among the teenagers was Mickey Mantle at .443 (Mel Ott is the only Hall of Famer to slug .450 as a teenager – .524 as a 19 year old in 1928 – and Ott wasn’t a rookie, having 241 plate appearances over the prior two seasons). Barry Bonds hit .223/.330/.416 as a rookie.
New York Mets
Raw EWSL: 162.50
Adjusted: 185.94
Age-Adj.: 183.04
WS Age: 29.3
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Josh Thole#	8	10
1B	25	Ike Davis#	8	12
2B	27	Daniel Murphy	9	9
SS	22	Ruben Tejada#	6	13
3B	29	David Wright	18	18
RF	26	Lucas Duda*	6	12
CF	34	Andres Torres	14	12
LF	33	Jason Bay	14	12
C2	29	Mike Nickeas*	1	1
INF	27	Justin Turner*	8	16
OF	32	Scott Hairston	6	4
12	29	Ronny Cedeno	9	9
13	24	Kirk Nieuwenhuis+	0	4
SP1	33	Johan Santana	7	5
SP2	37	RA Dickey	11	9
SP3	25	Jonathan Niese#	4	5
SP4	26	Dillon Gee*	4	6
SP5	28	Mike Pelfrey	6	6
RP1	32	Frank Francisco	7	5
RP2	27	Bobby Parnell	3	3
RP3	33	Jon Rauch	6	4
RP4	30	Ramon Ramirez	7	6
RP5	38	Tim Byrdak	3	2

Subjective Adjustments: None; I’m trying to keep these limited to preseason rankings, so I did not dock Mike Pelfrey.
Also on Hand: Position players – Mike Baxter (I could have rated him in the same place as Niewenhuis, but Niewenhuis is likely the guy I’ll be rating down the road), Zach Lutz, Jordany Valdespin, Brad Emaus, Freddie Lewis.
Pitchers – Miguel Batista, Manny Acosta, Pedro Beato, DJ Carrasco, Chris Schwinden, Jeremy Hefner.
Analysis: The Mets, realistically, are not aiming for a first place finish this season, but for .500 and respectability. And maybe not last place, which will require one of the other competitors here to have a very disappointing year. The main thing that needs to happen, for that to occur, is to keep the front four of the rotation healthy (Mike Pelfrey is headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery today), as well as Wright and Davis; some of the youngsters also need to step up, as Tejada, Thole and Nieuwenhuis have so far (I admit, I never expected Tejada to be a major league hitter). Santana, of course, has been miraculous, averaging over 10 K/9 for the first time since his first Cy Young season in 2004 and not having yet allowed a home run. The lesson is never bet against great pitchers – but also, be cautious, as I can recall Dwight Gooden having some outstanding stretches in the years after shoulder surgery, but never again sustaining it over a full season.

Continue reading 2012 NL East EWSL Report

Part 4 of my now very belated “preseason” previews is the NL Central; this is the fourth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)
Cincinnati Reds
Raw EWSL: 210.83
Adjusted: 228.84
Age-Adj.: 218.03
WS Age: 29.1
2012 W-L: 86-76

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	Ryan Hanigan	11	9
1B	28	Joey Votto	32	32
2B	31	Brandon Phillips	20	17
SS	26	Zack Cozart+	1	11
3B	37	Scott Rolen	11	7
RF	25	Jay Bruce	18	21
CF	27	Drew Stubbs	13	14
LF	33	Ryan Ludwick	15	13
C2	24	Devin Mesoraco+	1	4
INF	34	Wilson Valdez	8	7
OF	27	Chris Heisey#	5	7
12	34	Willie Harris	5	5
13	38	Miguel Cairo	6	4
SP1	35	Bronson Arroyo	8	7
SP2	26	Johnny Cueto	11	12
SP3	24	Mike Leake#	7	9
SP4	26	Homer Bailey	5	6
SP5	24	Mat Latos	9	10
RP1	24	Aroldis Chapman*	3	5
RP2	29	Sean Marshall	10	8
RP3	29	Bill Bray	3	3
RP4	27	Logan Ondusek#	4	4
RP5	30	Nick Masset	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Paul Janish, Billy Hamilton.
Pitchers – Alfredo Simon, Jose Arredondo, Ryan Madson (out for the season).
Analysis: The NL Central often looks weaker before the season than it does as the year progresses, but times have changed; Tony LaRussa, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are all gone, leaving the division short on anchors. That gives the Reds, who unlike their rivals managed to retain star 1B Joey Votto, a competitive advantage. Add in a rotation that could be stable if Johnny Cueto stays healthy and the usual Reds young, athletic outfield, and this team should be in any mix that emerges in this division.
Hamilton thus far is batting .381/.470/.583 and has already stolen 28 bases in A ball, although his suspect defense may slow his ascent.
Milwaukee Brewers
Raw EWSL: 227.50
Adjusted: 232.08
Age-Adj.: 212.81
WS Age: 29.9
2012 W-L: 84-78

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Jonathan Lucroy#	9	12
1B	26	Mat Gamel	1	1
2B	29	Rickie Weeks	20	19
SS	35	Alex Gonzalez	14	10
3B	34	Aramis Ramirez	19	17
RF	30	Corey Hart	18	16
CF	31	Nyjer Morgan	14	11
LF	28	Ryan Braun	33	33
C2	29	George Kottaras	4	3
INF	28	Travis Ishikawa	3	3
OF	26	Carlos Gomez	6	6
12	30	Norichika Aoki+	0	1
13	32	Cesar Izturis	4	3
SP1	26	Yovanni Gallardo	12	13
SP2	28	Zack Greinke	13	12
SP3	30	Shawn Marcum	11	9
SP4	35	Randy Wolf	11	9
SP5	30	Chris Narveson	6	5
RP1	29	John Axford#	11	12
RP2	30	Francisco Rodriguez	10	9
RP3	30	Kameron Loe	4	4
RP4	29	Manny Parra	1	1
RP5	31	Jose Veras	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position Players – Brooks Conrad.
Pitchers – Marco Estrada, who is off to an excellent start; Tim Dillard.
Analysis: The whiz heard round the world: Ryan Braun missing 50 games would have been a really horrible blow to this team after losing Fielder. With him, the Brewers’ rotation gives them a fighting chance. Note that an unbalanced schedule against this large, weak division, especially the Astros, should make the rest of the NL Central teams look deceptively stronger than they are.
World Champion St. Louis Cardinals
Raw EWSL: 208.67
Adjusted: 223.91
Age-Adj.: 199.17
WS Age: 31.0
2012 W-L: 80-82

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Yadier Molina	18	17
1B	36	Lance Berkman	23	17
2B	32	Skip Schumaker	13	11
SS	34	Rafael Furcal	13	11
3B	29	David Freese	9	9
RF	35	Carlos Beltran	18	13
CF	27	Jon Jay#	9	12
LF	32	Matt Holliday	23	18
C2	25	Tony Cruz*	1	2
INF	25	Daniel Descalso*	5	12
OF	27	Allen Craig#	6	7
12	28	Tyler Greene	2	2
13	26	Matt Carpenter+	0	4
SP1	37	Chris Carpenter	14	11
SP2	30	Adam Wainwright	10	9
SP3	25	Jaime Garcia#	8	10
SP4	34	Jake Westbrook	5	4
SP5	33	Kyle Lohse	5	4
RP1	30	Jason Motte	7	6
RP2	28	Mitchell Boggs	3	3
RP3	27	Fernando Salas#	6	7
RP4	28	Kyle McClellan	6	6
RP5	26	Marc Rzepcynski	4	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Shane Robinson, Erik Komatsu.
Pitchers – Lance Lynn (I have him here because this was his preseason slot; he’s been a surprising early star in the rotation), JC Romero, Victor Marte, Scott Linebrink (injured).
Analysis: The hulking sinkerballer Lynn has really been a huge help in Carpenter’s early absence and with Wainwright struggling (0-3, 7.32 ERA), and the team’s 14-7 record (16-5 Pythagorean record) suggests that the Cards could yet again pull an upside surprise if the antique trio of Beltran, Furcal and Berkman can stay healthy (Berkman’s already on the DL). Then again, history suggests that a 1.62 ERA from Lohse, a 1.30 ERA from Westbrook and a .620 slugging average from Yadier Molina may be a tall order to sustain.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Raw EWSL: 168.00
Adjusted: 185.37
Age-Adj.: 182.65
WS Age: 28.5
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	36	Rod Barajas	10	8
1B	31	Garrett Jones	12	10
2B	26	Neil Walker#	15	20
SS	33	Clint Barmes	11	9
3B	29	Casey McGehee	16	15
RF	23	Jose Tabata#	9	13
CF	25	Andrew McCutchen	24	29
LF	26	Alex Presley*	4	9
C2	27	Michael McKendry*	1	2
INF	25	Pedro Alvarez#	6	9
OF	30	Nate McLouth	9	8
12	24	Josh Harrison*	3	7
13	26	Matt Hague+	0	4
SP1	33	Erik Bedard	4	3
SP2	27	James McDonald	5	4
SP3	29	Jeff Karstens	6	5
SP4	28	Charlie Morton	5	4
SP5	31	Kevin Corriea	4	3
RP1	30	Joel Hanrahan	10	9
RP2	29	Chris Resop	3	2
RP3	29	Evan Meek	4	4
RP4	33	Juan Cruz	2	1
RP5	35	AJ Burnett	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Yamaico Navarro
Pitchers – Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Daniel McCutchen, Doug Slaten.
Analysis: Things are looking up in Pittsburgh, for a certain value of “up” compared to 19 consecutive losing seasons. Sad as it sounds, the Pirates’ 75 wins in 2003 was their only trip above 72 victories since 1999; this team has a fighting chance to top that. I would hesitate to project more.
Chicago Cubs
Raw EWSL: 156.00
Adjusted: 174.18
Age-Adj.: 175.23
SUbj. Adj.: 169.23
WS Age: 29.6
2012 W-L: 70-92

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Geovany Soto	11	11
1B	29	Bryan LaHair+	1	11
2B	26	Darwin Barney#	7	10
SS	22	Starlin Castro#	17	35
3B	27	Ian Stewart	5	5
RF	32	David DeJesus	10	8
CF	34	Marlon Byrd	14	12
LF	36	Alfonso Soriano	12	9
C2	26	Steve Clevenger+	0	4
INF	31	Jeff Baker	4	3
OF	35	Reed Johnson	6	4
12	29	Joe Mather	1	1
13	26	Blake DeWitt	8	8
SP1	28	Matt Garza	10	10
SP2	35	Ryan Dempster	9	7
SP3	27	Jeff Samardzjia	4	3
SP4	25	Chris Volstad	4	4
SP5	30	Paul Maholm	6	5
RP1	29	Carlos Marmol	11	10
RP2	35	Kerry Wood	4	4
RP3	36	Shawn Camp	5	5
RP4	26	James Russell#	1	1
RP5	29	Randy Wells	7	6

Subjective Adjustments: I cut Starlin Castro from 35 Win Shares to 29, for the usual reason that EWSL over-projects 22-year-old everyday shortstops whose value is heavily in their glove.
Also on Hand: Pitchers – Casey Coleman, Rodrigo Lopez, Rafael Davis, Lendy Castillo, Scott Maine.
Analysis: In the optimist’s case, this is probably the season that provides the “how bad they were” backdrop for a later turnaround by Theo Epstein. I’d rather owe $54.5 million to Johan Santana than $54 million to Alfonso Soriano…the interesting question for an aggressive new GM is whether you could get a good package for Castro, or whether you retain him as the core building block. He’s going to be one of the most valuable fantasy players in baseball over the next five years, but the debate is whether he’s actually good enough defensively, and likely to survive his rough plate discipline, to match his perceived value. I don’t know that I’d bet against a 22 year old shortstop with his gifts, though. He’s batting .337 and leading the NL in steals at the moment.
Another guy who looks like he may finally be figuring things out is Jeff Samardzija, with a 25/8 K/BB ratio and just one HR allowed in 24 innings.
Houston Astros
Raw EWSL: 96.17
Adjusted: 113.76
Age-Adj.: 105.61
WS Age: 29.4
2012 W-L: 48-114

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Jason Castro#	1	2
1B	36	Carlos Lee	17	12
2B	22	Jose Altuve*	1	4
SS	28	Jed Lowrie	5	5
3B	27	Chris Johnson#	9	11
RF	28	Brian Bogusevic*	2	4
CF	25	Jordan Schafer	4	5
LF	24	JD Martinez*	3	8
C2	31	Chris Snyder	6	5
INF	23	Marwin Gonzalez+	0	4
OF	28	Travis Buck	2	2
12	29	Brian Bixler	0	0
13	28	Justin Maxwell	1	1
SP1	33	Wandy Rodriguez	11	8
SP2	27	Bud Norris	5	4
SP3	29	JA Happ	5	4
SP4	27	Lucas Harrell#	0	0
SP5	25	Kyle Weiland+	0	4
RP1	31	Brett Myers	9	7
RP2	28	Wilton Lopez	5	5
RP3	28	Fernando Rodriguez*	2	2
RP4	26	David Carpenter*	1	2
RP5	32	Brandon Lyon	7	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Brett Wallace, Landon Powell, Angel Sanchez.
Pitchers – Wesley Wright, Fernando Abad, Rhiner Cruz, Enerio del Rosario.
Analysis: No, that 48-114 record is not a typo; measured by ESWL, the Astros enter 2012 as the worst, or at least weakest, team since I started doing this in 2004.
The optimist’s case is that the Astros are this weak, not because they have a collection of players who have proven they can’t play in the majors, but mostly because they have a collection of players who haven’t proven they can play in the majors. That can sometimes yield surprises; the diminutive (5’5″) young (22) Jose Altuve, who hit .276 .297 .357 in Houston after hitting .408/.451/.606 in A ball and .361/.388/.569 in AA last season, is batting .359/.407/.551 so far; with his small stature, youth and compact swing, Altuve could well turn out to be a star, or he could be Jose Lopez, or he could be a little of both, like Carlos Baerga. Other youngsters could emerge as well, given enough playing time, although few of the others in the Houston lineup or rotation have an upside similar to Altuve’s.
But this is guaranteed to be a terrible team, one that will likely get worse before it gets better if the team can find takers for even a portion of Brett Myers’ and Carlos Lee’s contracts (Myers has one more year remaining, Lee’s done after this season).

Continue reading 2012 NL Central EWSL Report

Part 3 of my preseason previews is the AL West; this is the third of six division “previews,” using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior: AL Central, AL East.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)
The Anaheim California-Based Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim
Raw EWSL: 273.50
Adjusted: 285.03
Age-Adj.: 252.76
WS Age: 30.9
2012 W-L: 97-65

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Chris Iannetta	11	10
1B	32	Albert Pujols	30	24
2B	28	Howie Kendrick	18	18
SS	28	Erick Aybar	16	16
3B	29	Alberto Callaspo	15	15
RF	36	Torii Hunter	20	14
CF	25	Peter Bourjous#	9	13
LF	33	Vernon Wells	13	11
DH	29	Kendry Morales	7	6
C2	29	Bobby Wilson#	2	2
INF	26	Mark Trumbo*	7	15
OF	38	Bobby Abreu	18	12
13	31	Macier Izturis	12	10
SP1	29	Jered Weaver	21	18
SP2	31	Danny Haren	17	13
SP3	31	CJ Wilson	17	13
SP4	29	Ervin Santana	13	11
SP5	30	Jerome Williams	2	1
RP1	24	Jordan Walden#	6	8
RP2	36	Scott Downs	9	8
RP3	37	Hisanori Takahashi	7	5
RP4	39	LaTroy Hawkins	5	4
RP5	27	Kevin Jepsen	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Hank Conger, Alexi Amarista, Ryan Langerhans, and – arriving sooner or later, and off to a hot start in AAA – outfield super-prospect Mike Trout.
Pitchers – Jason Isringhausen, who despite not being listed here is more or less in the closer mix, given the wobbly Walden.
Analysis: This team is the very picture of depth and balance, with just two really major stars (Pujols and Weaver, although in truth Weaver is only slightly better than Haren) but almost no weaknesses and a mix of young players and seasoned vets jostling for playing time (Trumbo, for example, hit 29 home runs last season and is basically reduced to playing all-purpose backup to Pujols, Callaspo, Morales, Hunter and Wells, while fending off Abreu and Trout). The only two conspicuous weaknesses are Wells, who with any non-insane contract would have been cut by now (fun fact: Vernon Wells made as much money as Mitt Romney in 2009 and 2010), and the uncertain Jerome Williams as the fifth starter.
American League Champion Texas Rangers
Raw EWSL: 235.50
Adjusted: 250.96
Age-Adj.: 230.02
WS Age: 29.9
2012 W-L: 90-72

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	30	Mike Napoli	17	16
1B	26	Mitch Moreland#	6	8
2B	30	Ian Kinsler	19	18
SS	23	Elvis Andrus	19	23
3B	33	Adrian Beltre	18	16
RF	31	Nelson Cruz	17	14
CF	31	Josh Hamilton	19	16
LF	30	David Murphy	11	10
DH	35	Michael Young	20	15
C2	33	Yorvit Torrealba	9	8
INF	29	Alberto Gonzalez	4	3
OF	28	Craig Gentry#	3	5
13	25	Brandon Snyder+	0	4
SP1	32	Colby Lewis#	10	9
SP2	25	Derek Holland	8	9
SP3	25	Yu Darvish+	0	4
SP4	24	Neftali Feliz	12	14
SP5	26	Matt Harrison	9	10
RP1	37	Joe Nathan	5	4
RP2	33	Mike Adams	10	7
RP3	28	Alexi Ogando#	9	10
RP4	37	Koji Uehara	8	6
RP5	29	Mark Lowe	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, although as I noted last year with Andrus, EWSL tends to overrate the growth potential of very young players whose value is disproportionately defensive. But by now, the more reasonable reading of the age adjustment is a built-in assumption of offensive improvement.
Also on Hand: Position players – Julio Borbon, Lonys Martin, shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar. I always read his name to myself using the Don Pardo voice: “Juuuuricksonn PrOWfarrr…” Try it once, I guarantee it will stick with you.
Pitchers – Scott Feldman, Robert Ross.
Analysis: It remains to be seen, but right now the difference in the AL West is CJ Wilson pitching for the Angels instead of the Rangers. we’ll get a better fix now on exactly how well the Nolan Ryan-led organization’s pitching strategies work with the move of Neftali Feliz to the rotation and Alexi Ogando back to the pen, as well as Yu Darvish’s adjustment to the majors as the rare non-gimmicky Japanese power pitcher to enter a rotation (the example of the late Hideki Irabu was not encouraging, but Irabu had a variety of issues).
The Rangers lineup is older than you think it is. Guys like Hamilton and Cruz got late starts in the big leagues, so it’s easy to forget they’re on the wrong side of 30 now.
Seattle Mariners
Raw EWSL: 147.50
Adjusted: 186.06
Age-Adj.: 183.55
WS Age: 28.8
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	33	Miguel Olivo	10	9
1B	25	Justin Smoak#	7	11
2B	24	Dustin Ackley*	7	18
SS	30	Brendan Ryan	12	10
3B	24	Kyle Seager*	3	4
RF	38	Ichiro Suzuki	20	13
CF	29	Franklin Guitierrez	10	10
LF	34	Chone Figgins	9	7
DH	22	Jesus Montero+	1	11
C2	28	John Jaso#	8	9
INF	26	Mike Carp*	4	8
OF	25	Michael Saunders	3	4
13	27	Casper Wells#	4	6
SP1	26	Felix Hernandez	20	22
SP2	29	Jason Vargas	8	7
SP3	37	Kevin Millwood	6	5
SP4	23	Blake Beavan*	3	6
SP5	25	Hector Noesi*	1	2
RP1	29	Brandon League	9	8
RP2	28	Tom Wilhelmsen*	2	3
RP3	25	Lucas Luetge+	0	4
RP4	28	Steve Delabar+	1	4
RP5	35	George Sherrill	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Muenenori Kawasaki, who has been doing the bulk of the infield backup work, Alex Liddi, Trayvon Robinson.
Pitchers – Shawn Kelley, Erasmo Ramirez, Hisashi Iwakuma (an import who’s still looking to crack the rotation).
Analysis: The Mariners have clipped about 3 years off their WS average age since last season, albeit partly because some of the older guys like Figgins and Ichiro are coming off tough years. But the road back is long, long enough that in the absence of marketable veterans they had to part with Michael Pineda to get a young hitter in Montero (not a bad deal, but a costly one for a rebuilding team). It’s hard to see the Mariners getting rebuilt before King Felix has either gotten injured or left town. This division remains stratified very sharply between the two strong and two weak teams.
Ichiro enters tonight’s action with 2438 hits in the American League to go with 1287 in nine seasons in Japan, dating back to age 18, a total of 3725 hits. It’s almost a certainty that he’d be on the doorstep of 4000 hits by now if he’d been in the majors that whole time: due to the shorter Japanese schedule, he made it to 200 hits only once in Japan, as a 20-year-old hitting .385 in 1994; from age 21-26, Ichiro batted .354 but averaged 172 hits in 486 at bats per season; in the majors from age 27-36, he batted .331 but averaged 224 hits in 678 at bats. Give him an extra 50 hits a year and he’d be over 4000 by now.
Oakland A’s
Raw EWSL: 114.00
Adjusted: 169.35
Age-Adj.: 167.16
WS Age: 28.3
2012 W-L: 69-93

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Kurt Suzuki	10	10
1B	26	Daric Barton	10	11
2B	25	Jemile Weeks*	8	18
SS	28	Cliff Pennington	17	17
3B	26	Josh Donaldson+	0	11
RF	25	Josh Reddick*	4	8
CF	26	Yoenis Cedpedes+	0	11
LF	32	Coco Crisp	13	10
DH	31	Jonny Gomes	11	9
C2	28	Anthony Recker+	0	4
INF	26	Eric Sogard+	0	4
OF	29	Seth Smith	12	11
13	28	Kila Kaiaihue#	0	0
SP1	28	Brandon McCarthy	6	6
SP2	39	Bartolo Colon	5	4
SP3	25	Tyson Ross#	2	2
SP4	25	Tom Milone+	1	4
SP5	27	Graham Godfrey+	1	4
RP1	34	Grant Balfour	7	5
RP2	36	Brian Fuentes	7	6
RP3	28	Jerry Blevins	2	2
RP4	25	Andrew Carignan+	0	4
RP5	25	Ryan Cook+	0	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Adam Rosales, Brandon Allen, Jermaine Mitchell, Grant Green, Chris Carter.
Pitchers – Fautino de los Santos, Jordan Norberto, prospect Jarrod Parker and the injured duo of Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden, whose dual absence blows a huge hole in the Oakland rotation.
Analysis: Even for the annually reborn A’s, who almost always exceed their EWSL due to overperforming young starting pitchers and a season-long influx of new discoveries, a non-age-adjusted total of 114 Established Win Shares (38 wins’ worth) is a narrow base upon which to build. The Astros can’t arrive in this division soon enough for Oakland.
You want good news? It’s nice to have a guy who can throw like this.

Continue reading 2012 AL West EWSL Report

Part 2 of my preseason previews is the AL East; this is the second of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior: AL Central.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)
The Hated Yankees
Raw EWSL: 281.17
Adjusted: 288.33
Age-Adj.: 246.12
WS Age: 32.1
2012 W-L: 95-67

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Russell Martin	13	12
1B	32	Mark Teixeira	23	19
2B	29	Robinson Cano	29	28
SS	38	Derek Jeter	18	12
3B	36	Alex Rodriguez	18	13
RF	31	Nick Swisher	20	16
CF	31	Curtis Granderson	22	18
LF	28	Brett Gardner	15	15
DH	40	Raul Ibanez	15	8
C2	26	Francisco Cervelli	5	5
INF	25	Eduardo Nunez#	5	7
OF	35	Andruw Jones	8	6
13	34	Eric Chavez	3	3
SP1	31	CC Sabathia	19	15
SP2	23	Michael Pineda*	5	12
SP3	37	Hiroki Kuroda	11	8
SP4	25	Ivan Nova#	6	8
SP5	26	Phil Hughes	6	6
RP1	42	Mariano Rivera	14	10
RP2	27	David Robertson	7	6
RP3	32	Rafael Soriano	9	7
RP4	29	Cory Wade	3	2
RP5	36	Freddy Garcia	9	8

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Chris Stewart, Chris Dickerson.
Pitchers – Boone Logan, Andy Pettitte, Clay Rapada, David Aardsma. Joba Chamberlain and Pedro Feliciano almost certainly won’t pitch this year.
Analysis: Once again, the Hated Yankees are the class of the field – albeit not of the whole AL, compared to the Tigers – and once again, they are also (probably – I haven’t finished running all the numbers) the oldest team in the league, maybe in MLB.
The Yankees’ depth is not that impressive behind the front line, but of course the front line is very impressive, at least on offense and in the bullpen. It’s the rotation that remains a big question mark after CC Sabathia (it’s easy to forget that Kuroda is even older than Freddy Garcia). A lot will rest on Pineda.
One has to assume that by the trade deadline, the Yankees will find someone besides Ibanez and Andruw Jones to handle the DH and backup outfielder duties.
Boston Red Sox
Raw EWSL: 251.83
Adjusted: 252.87
Age-Adj.: 227.62
WS Age: 30.0
2012 W-L: 89-73

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	27	J.Saltalamacchia	5	5
1B	30	Adrian Gonzalez	31	28
2B	28	Dustin Pedroia	22	22
SS	31	Mike Aviles	6	5
3B	33	Kevin Youkilis	20	17
RF	27	Ryan Sweeney	8	9
CF	28	Jacoby Ellsbury	21	21
LF	30	Carl Crawford	18	16
DH	36	David Ortiz	17	13
C2	32	Kelly Shoppach	5	4
INF	34	Nick Punto	8	7
OF	31	Cody Ross	14	12
13	33	Darnell McDonald	5	4
SP1	28	Jon Lester	16	15
SP2	32	Josh Beckett	11	9
SP3	27	Clay Buchholz	10	9
SP4	27	Daniel Bard	8	7
SP5	24	Felix Doubront#	0	0
RP1	28	Andrew Bailey	10	9
RP2	29	Alfredo Aceves	8	7
RP3	27	Mark Melancon	6	6
RP4	34	Vicente Padilla	4	3
RP5	26	Franklin Morales	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Ryan Kalish, Ryan Lavarnaway. Pitchers – John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, neither of whom is likely to pitch. Bobby Jenks, who’s on the shelf for at least about half the season. Aaron Cook, Scott Atchison, Matt Albers, Justin Thomas, Ross Ohlendorf, Michael Bowden. Cook’s the one most likely to have some impact in the near future.
Analysis: Bobby Valentine (who has done nothing so far to dispell my conclusion that he’s the Newt Gingrich of baseball managers) has his work cut out for him – this is still a talented team, but the injuries have piled up (including Bailey being shelved yet again) and age has taken its toll, plus one has to wonder whether Carl Crawford can take over the inspirational leadership void left by JD Drew.
(…yeah, I’m trolling with that last point)
And perhaps worst of all, not only are the Sox likely competing less for the division than for the single-elimination Russian Roulette wild card, they’re doing so in a viciously competitive division, as you can see from how the Rays and Jays rosters look. Maybe Crawford, Youkilis and Buchholz bounce back, but then Ortiz is 36 and there’s nowhere to go but down for Ellsbury, Gonzalez, and Pedroia after 2011. The Sawx will be a good team, but they face a high likelihood of being an odd man out.
Tampa Bay Rays
Raw EWSL: 213.83
Adjusted: 230.16
Age-Adj.: 223.76
WS Age: 29.1
2012 W-L: 88-74

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	37	Jose Molina	6	3
1B	34	Carlos Pena	17	15
2B	32	Jeff Keppinger	12	10
SS	27	Sean Rodriguez	8	8
3B	26	Evan Longoria	26	28
RF	27	Matt Joyce	13	14
CF	27	BJ Upton	18	19
LF	25	Desmond Jennings*	6	13
DH	34	Luke Scott	9	7
C2	27	Jose Lobaton+	1	4
INF	26	Reid Brignac	6	6
OF	31	Ben Zobrist	26	21
13	28	Elliott Johnson*	1	2
SP1	26	David Price	13	15
SP2	30	James Shields	13	11
SP3	25	Jeremy Hellickson#	9	11
SP4	23	Matt Moore+	1	4
SP5	29	Jeff Niemann	8	7
RP1	36	Kyle Farnsworth	8	7
RP2	36	Joel Peralta	6	5
RP3	35	Fernando Rodney	4	3
RP4	25	Jacob McGee*	1	2
RP5	26	Wade Davis	6	7

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Stephen Vogt, Sam Fuld (who is injured).
Pitchers – JP Howell, Brandon Gomes, Josh Lueke, Burke Badenhop.
Analysis: The Rays have their usual assortment of young starting pitchers, prime-age position players, and aging relievers, with weak spots at catcher and much of the non-Longoria infield (depending where Zobrist is on a particular day, which thus far is more often in the outfield). It’s always hard to guess how Hellickson, Moore and Davis (to the extent he gets another shot in the rotation) will progress down the path to David Pricedom.
Despite an early injury, I have a suspicion that his age 27 contract year will be good to BJ Upton, who has definitely followed the Adrian Beltre career path; Upton’s five year average of .257/.346/.425 with 32 doubles, 17 HR, 37 SB & 71 BB is solid, but somehow his individual seasons don’t quite match up to that package.
Toronto Blue Jays
Raw EWSL: 204.17
Adjusted: 227.16
Age-Adj.: 221.26
WS Age: 29.2
2012 W-L: 87-75

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	JP Arencibia*	7	15
1B	28	Adam Lind	12	12
2B	30	Kelly Johnson	16	15
SS	29	Yunel Escobar	19	18
3B	22	Brett Lawrie*	5	18
RF	31	Jose Bautista	30	25
CF	25	Colby Rasmus	13	16
LF	25	Eric Thames*	4	8
DH	29	Edwin Encarnacion	9	9
C2	29	Jeff Mathis	4	4
INF	45	Omar Vizquel	4	2
OF	31	Rajai Davis	10	8
13	30	Ben Francisco	6	6
SP1	27	Ricky Romero	16	14
SP2	27	Brandon Morrow	7	6
SP3	25	Brett Cecil	6	6
SP4	22	Henderson Alvarez*	2	5
SP5	25	Joel Carreno+	1	4
RP1	28	Sergio Santos#	8	9
RP2	37	Francisco Cordero	12	10
RP3	41	Darren Oliver	7	5
RP4	27	Luis Perez*	1	2
RP5	34	Jason Frasor	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None, but Brett Lawrie’s EWSL may be somewhat enthusiastic here, as is sometimes the case for 22 year olds.
Also on Hand: Position players – Travis Snider.
Pitchers – Dustin McGowan (hurt again) and Jesse Litsch.
Analysis: What a difference a year makes for a team I has ranked last entering last season; EWSL has them effectively even with Boston and Tampa, even adjusting for Canadian exchange rates.
Colby Rasmus is to the Jays what Upton and Crawford are to Tampa and Boston, the lineup’s pivotal enigma. The pitching staff is still a crapshoot beyond Romero, but there are a fair number of live arms here.
Baltimore Orioles
Raw EWSL: 176.00
Adjusted: 181.12
Age-Adj.: 176.99
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Matt Wieters	17	19
1B	26	Chris Davis	4	4
2B	34	Brian Roberts	7	6
SS	29	JJ Hardy	15	15
3B	28	Mark Reynolds	17	17
RF	28	Nick Markakis	20	20
CF	26	Adam Jones	15	17
LF	28	Nolan Reimold	7	7
DH	30	Wilson Betemit	10	9
C2	31	Ronny Paulino	6	5
INF	28	Robert Andino	6	6
OF	34	Endy Chavez	4	3
13	33	Nick Johnson	4	3
SP1	29	Jason Hammell	7	6
SP2	26	Jake Arrieta#	4	6
SP3	25	Tommy Hunter	6	7
SP4	26	Wei-Yin Chen+	0	4
SP5	25	Brian Matusz	4	4
RP1	29	Jim Johnson	8	7
RP2	32	Matt Lindstrom	4	3
RP3	34	Kevin Gregg	6	5
RP4	29	Darren O’Day	5	4
RP5	34	Luis Ayala	3	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Ryan Flaherty.
Pitchers – Pedro Strop, Troy Patton, Zach Britton, Tsuyoshi Wada, Brad Bergesen.
Analysis: The Orioles aren’t terrible, but this division could easily leave a lot of their players look like Robert Andino.
Wieters, Davis and Jones have basically reached the put up or shut up stage for their hyped potential. Davis now has a career line of .322/.380/.645 in AA, .337/.397/.609 in AAA, but .252/.301/.448 in MLB. In MLB, he’s averaged a .335 BABIP, 24 HR, 39 BB, and 189 K per 600 AB. Between AA and AAA: .395 BABIP, 41 HR, 58 BB, 156 K per 600 AB. In other words, it’s not just the strikeouts, Davis has struggled across the board to translate his skills to the MLB level. He could hit 45 homers, he could hit .210; he could do both. If he and Jones both improve their strike zone judgment just a bit, this lineup looks a lot better. Then you have Hardy, who is liable to do anything in a given season (I sort of half expect him to hit 30 homers because having two good years in a row is the one thing he’s never done), and Markakis, who is battling to avoid the Ben Grieve career path he’s been on for the past few seasons, as well as Reynolds, who will be a terror if he plays every day and strikes out less than 200 times, but is more apt to terrorize his own pitching staff. If ever there was an offense designed for the outside possibility of making its batting coach look like a genius…Jim Presley has his work cut out for him.
We pass in silence and avert our eyes from Baltimore’s pitching beyond noting that Jake Arrieta started Opening Day.

Continue reading 2012 AL East EWSL Report