Perhaps the Final Beltre Bash?

Last month, I compared Adrian Beltre unfavorably to his Dodger replacements. But he’s now beginning to show signs of life: since the start of June, he’s managed to compile a .292 average and a .370 on-base percentage. True, these numbers aren’t exactly going to propel him onto the leadership boards, especially with a paltry .375 slugging percentage accompanying them, but they’re at least better than his seasonal .242 AVG and .277 OBP.
What truly strikes me, though, is his 8 total walks. For perspective, consider that Antonio Perez, who’s more or less become the regular Dodger third baseman, has 9 — in 155 fewer plate appearances (235 vs. 80). Indeed, Perez has spent time on the disabled list, as well as in AAA to improve his fielding at the hot corner, yet he’s drawn more. And this advantage has translated to an 11.3 VORP, compared to Beltre’s -2.1.
Maybe Adrian’s finally found his groove. If so, then we can start missing him, because Antonio’s been just fine.

National Deficit

The Washington Post has a fairly good article on the Nationals’ surprising emergence, but it seems to miss the most crucial point. This summary is fine:

How, exactly, have they won seven of their last eight [note: with today’s victory, the string is now eight of nine–RT], overtaking everybody in the process? They don’t lead the NL in any significant category. In fact, they are statistically unremarkable, in some cases abysmal. Only two teams in the NL score fewer runs per game than the Nationals’ 4.09. No team in the league has hit fewer home runs than the Nationals’ 40. Their starting pitching is not dominant; their bullpen is, statistically speaking, quite ordinary.

But I’d be more apt to note, as Baseball Prospectus does, the Nats’ overall negative run differential. After all, if you plug their total runs scored (235) and total runs allowed (244) in the James Pythagorean formula, you get an expected record that drops below .500, putting them in the cellar of the NL East. They’re playing five games above their heads right now. Without a surge in run production, they’re likely to falter.
(Aside: Somebody needs to tell ESPN that their sabermetric columnist is named Rob Neyer, not Rob Never. See the header.)

And They Play in a Pitchers’ Park?

The Dodgers’ recent woes can be easily traced to the pitching staff, especially its penchant for yielding the long ball. If you want just one simple indicator, take a look at the Beane Count, which examines team rankings in walks and homeruns. While the hitters are respectable in both areas, the pitchers are among the worst in HR-allowed, despite giving up the second-fewest bases on balls.
The story doesn’t get any better within the rotation. In calculating the average game scores of the 105 pitchers who’ve started enough games to “qualify,” we get a major-league figure of roughly 51.3. Pedro Martinez, whose 68.6 ranks highest in the game, is over two standard deviations from the mean. By contrast, Dodger starters are, at best, mediocre. Derek Lowe (52.9), Brad Penny (52), and Odalis Perez (51) offer nothing spectacular. Jeff Weaver (45.3), Scott Erickson (38), and Wilson Alvarez (27) are miserable, particularly if you consider their home park.
What these numbers tell us is that the Dodgers have yet to get consistently good starts. I suspect that they’ll improve as folks like Penny (and, hopefully, Perez) recover from injuries, but Paul DePodesta is taking no chances: he’s in the market for a starter.

Feel the Draft

There’s already so much good coverage of the draft that it’d be fruitless for me to live-blog it. Hence just check out John Sickels. And pay a special visit to Baseball America, which deserves considerable praise for projecting the first eighteen selections, as well as twenty-two of the top thirty.
But let me note that, in using their supplemental pick to draft Luke Hochevar, the Dodgers have essentially found their way to the first round. As John notes, this Tennessee right-hander could have gone in the top five. His affiliation with Scott Boras is a significant wild card, though perhaps the fact that the Dodgers initially selected him in 2002 could avert negotiating snafus.

The Impossible

Yesterday, before the Dodgers’ first game against the Tigers, Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Plaschke revisited the 1988 World Series with Kirk Gibson. The resulting article has interesting tidbits, most notably Plaschke’s own recollection of the historic fist-pump. But this point stands out:

How much did that home run typify his season? Consider that he was voted MVP despite hitting only 25 homers with 76 runs batted in and a .290 average.
How much did that home run cement his legacy? Many think he is one of the biggest impact players in baseball history, yet he never played a full season in which he hit .300, or had 30 homers, or 100 RBIs.
“I was very, very average in many aspects,” he says. “Let’s be honest.”

Gibson’s modesty is admirable, and indeed, if we truly want to “be honest,” we should agree that — by Hall of Fame standards — his career was “very, very average.”
On the other hand, as a journalist, Plaschke should know better than to provide statistics without appropriate context. Yes, Gibson hit only 25 homers. But, back then, that was good enough for seventh in the league. And, while he had a mediocre batting average, he finished fourth in on-base percentage, ninth in slugging percentage, fourth in OPS, third in OPS+, second in runs scored, and seventh in runs created. He had a very productive season.
Perhaps he didn’t deserve the MVP award. Two years ago, Crank laid out a very strong case against Gibson (and for Darryl Strawberry), providing support for Plaschke’s assertions. But, as Aaron Gleeman has noted, Gibson also accumulated the second-highest Win Share total, so his selection was not entirely unjustified. It certainly wasn’t something to be dismissed in the interest of immortalizing the homer.
Then again, we’ve come to expect such sloppiness from Plaschke, right? (He’s a far cry from Bernie Miklasz, to be sure.) But, if there’s anything from the column worth saving, it’s this admission:

“There were personality defects in the deal, it’s what made me who I was,” he says. “Some people didn’t like it. But they didn’t take the time to understand it.”
I was one of those people. I covered the Dodgers as a beat reporter during Gibson’s era, and I blanched at his crudeness, his bullying, the way he treated life as if he were breaking up a double play.
I understand it now. He behaved that way because it was the only way he felt he and his team could succeed.
He couldn’t have remodeled the Dodgers without a hammer and nails, and by the time that ball sailed over the right-field fence, everyone forgot the mess.

Maybe he’ll write similarly of Paul DePodesta seventeen years from now.

How Bad Has Adrian Beltre Been?

Well, let’s just put it this way: Dodger fans have been less than impressed with Norihiro Nakamura and his .369 OPS. But Beltre hasn’t exactly been tearing it up himself. In fact, though his OPS is at least above .500, other metrics suggest that he’s closer to the futility of the former Japanese superstar.

PlayerVORPRARP
Nakamura-4.2-4.2
Beltre-4.0-4.6

Jose Valentin has been superior to both, posting a .722 OPS, 2.8 VORP, and 3.9 RARP. Surprisingly, however, his contributions have not come in the form of power; he only has 2 homeruns with his .164 ISO. Rather, they have come in the form of plate discipline, as his 16 walks and .364 OBP suggest. He’s also the league leader in pitches per plate appearance: 4.41. This ranking isn’t as anomalous as it may appear, since his career P/PA is just slightly under 4.0.

Update: For additional comments, see this post by the new and insightful Blue Think Tank.

Dodgers’ Win-Share Items

In his interview with Paul DePodesta, Steve Henson of the Los Angeles Times writes that “Jeff Kent has been as advertised offensively and significantly better defensively at second.” The latter characterization is slowly becoming the conventional wisdom among the mainstream press. It expresses pleasant surprise at the slugger’s glove. Well, as of May 18, Kent trailed only Craig Counsell in fielding win shares among NL second basemen.
Meanwhile, Cesar Izturis stands alongside Clint Barmes and David Eckstein at the top of the league’s shortstop list. But the reigning gold-glove winner has been doing it more at the plate than at the hole. He’s the position leader in batting win shares (5.0). On defense, his 1.5 ranks fourth.
Lastly, as Studes points out, the Hee Seop Choi-Olmedo Saenz platoon has a combined 10 win shares, which tie MVP contenders Derrek Lee and Bobby Abreu (and exceed Albert Pujols). Of course, Saenz has logged some time at third, so some apples are mixed with the oranges. But we can say, at the very least, that the Dodgers’ problems do not lie at first. (It’s actually in the rotation.)

Bradley Takes Center Stage

Last night, I intended to write bitterly about poor Dodger game management, which started when the blistering Hee Seop Choi was benched, and continued until a fatigued Jeff Weaver gave up a critical grand slam in the eighth inning. But I’ll pass. This market, after all, is already cornered by Fire Jim Tracy.
So instead I’ll discuss Milton Bradley, who hit two homeruns, including his own grand slam, from both sides of the plate. As FJT correctly observes, he hasn’t been perfect this year. His walk rate is down: he’s projected to draw fewer than 40 bases on balls. Relatedly, he’s been seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance (3.59) than at any time in his career (3.84, though it reached 3.96 in 2003).
But, otherwise, he’s been great. In fact, he’s been perhaps the best centerfielder in the National League. Compare him to a couple of notables:

Player OPS EQA RARP VORP
Milton Bradley .961 .321 14.4 17.7
Jim Edmonds .897 .296 8.1 11.8
Carlos Beltran .841 .286 8.6 11.0

I haven’t been following the defensive end quite as much, so I can’t make any credible assertions there. But I suppose it doesn’t hurt that Bradley has five assists, which is the highest total among all major league outfielders.

Choi’s Charge

In the last seven days, Hee Seop Choi has posted the highest OPS among all major league players with at least 10 at-bats. His 1.766, which includes two doubles and three homeruns, edges Brian Giles’ 1.771 (though, in truth, the latter has been more impressive, collecting eight walks along with four doubles and two homeruns). Choi has also raised his seasonal batting average from .246 to .302.
I think it’s time for him to take a crack at left-handed pitching. According to CBS, the Dodgers are projected to face Horacio Ramirez tomorrow and Mike Hampton on Saturday. Choi deserves a shot.

Phillips Propels to the Top

With last night’s monstrous game, which included his first career grand slam, Jason Phillips became the leader in SLG, OPS, EQA, and VORP among National League catchers.

Player SLG
Jason Phillips .470
Ramon Hernandez .453
Mike Piazza .450
Player OPS
Jason Phillips .828
Paul Lo Duca .787
Ramon Hernandez .786
Player EQA
Jason Phillips .296
Paul Lo Duca .289
Ramon Hernandez .280
Brian Schneider .280
Player VORP
Jason Phillips 8.4
Ramon Hernandez 8.2
Paul Lo Duca 7.8

It’s worth noting that Lo Duca, who preceded Phillips in the Dodger backstop, is the league leader in AVG and OBP. Piazza, who preceded Lo Duca, is the league leader in homeruns. But they all basically trail the elite corps of AL catchers, most notably Joe Mauer, Jason Varitek, and Javy Lopez.

Ghame Over*

Eric Gagne is, of course, the last reliever to win the NL Cy Young Award. If the season were to end today, who would be the top candidate to repeat this accomplishment?
You guessed it: Yhency Brazoban, the current replacement of the injured Dodger closer. According to the Neyer/James model, Brazoban ranks seventh overall among NL contenders — one place ahead of Pedro Martinez. But this ranking depends more on circumstance than on dominance. For instance, Brandon Lyon and Jose Mesa actually have better save totals and ERAs, among other statistics. But Lyon has two losses, which amount to a 4-point penalty. And, whereas Brazoban plays for a first-place team — good for a substantial “victory bonus” — Mesa is stuck with a poor club.
So, if I were Gagne, I wouldn’t worry too much about being eclipsed any time soon.
(*The title comes from this Dodger Thoughts post.)

Clutch Hitting

Elan Fuld, a junior at the University of Pennsylvania, apparently has evidence on this elusive phenomenon:

[H]is calculations provided statistical evidence that players such as Eddie Murray, Frank Duffy and Luis Gomez were clutch hitters.
A surprising finding in the study was that Bill Buckner, who has gone down in history as one of the game’s worst “choke artists” for his Game 6 World Series error, was statistically proven to be a clutch hitter.
In his study, Fuld defined a clutch hitter as a batter who hits better at more important points of the game. He modeled the at-bat outcomes of players using the importance of the game situation to find out if clutch or choke abilities helped to explain their performance.
“Once situational importance rose to around at least a certain level, the player would start to think this is very important and start doing something that makes him hit better, if he’s clutch, or panics and does something that makes him hit worse, if he’s a choke hitter,” Fuld said.

This information comes from a university press release. It sounds interesting and plausible, but I’d like to see the data for myself. I’d also like to know how he weighted game situations.
(Via 6-4-2.)

Counsell Walks Away

Has anyone else noticed that Craig Counsell leads the National League in walks*? The guy has 22 in 25 games. That’s almost 40% of what he drew all last season — and we still have yet to celebrate Cinco de Mayo.
Here I was marvelling at JD Drew’s eight walks in the past three games. But the Barry Bonds impersonation may be taking place in the desert, not the ravine.
[*Brian Giles also has 22.]

The White Sox Channel the Dodgers

As Chicago enjoys its major-league-leading record, I think back to Los Angeles. But not the Dodgers crew that, until its current three-game skid, had the most wins — I have in mind the 2003 vintage. That team had a notoriously awful offense, ranking last in many batting categories. It was also involved in a considerable number of one-run games, as it employed a “small ball” strategy to manufacture runs. The dominant pitching staff ended up keeping the club in contention.
The White Sox, while perhaps not at the same level of offensive futility, is nonetheless pretty unimpressive themselves. They have the AL’s lowest on-base percentage at .300. Despite their 20 homeruns (good enough for 4th in the league), their slugging percentage of .408 and OPS of .707 put them at 10th. Meanwhile, the pitching staff has been awesome. Its top-ranked 3.18 ERA is 0.34 better than the next competitor. It also boasts the second lowest opponent OPS at .650.
With this kind of formula, I question whether the White Sox can remain atop the majors for much longer. I know that, with the Dodgers, it certainly wasn’t enough to be a real force.
Update: By the way, nine of Chicago’s first fifteen wins are by one run.

Out West, A Study in Contrasts

Prior to the start of today’s games, the five NL West teams occupied the top six spots in on-base percentage. The Giants and the Diamondbacks were practically tied for number one, with .367 and .366. The Dodgers’ .359 were right behind them. At numbers five and six, the Rockies and the Padres had .349 and .348.
By contrast, three of the four AL West teams ranked in the bottom sixth: the Mariners’ .307 put them at 25th, the Angels’ .301 at 26th, and the A’s .289 at 28th. Texas had a respectable .338, which was good enough for 11th.
I doubt that these rankings will hold for much longer, but they’re interesting to note in the first 10+ games of the season.

Our Man Scott Erickson

The Dodger Stadium grounds crew could be even busier this summer.
Yesterday, Scott Erickson, the former 20-game winner and (as the Associated Press dutifully reminds us) loving husband of sportscaster Lisa Guerrero*, agreed to a minor league contract with Los Angeles and received an invitation to spring training. This signing, while financially low-risk, came with its share of questions. After all, Erickson only pitched 27 innings last season, as he battled back from shoulder operation. His injuries, combined with his age (36), hardly made him a prototype for a Dodger pitching staff that had Brad Penny, Darren Dreifort, and Edwin Jackson go out in pain.
But, at the same time, we shouldn’t be surprised to see Paul DePodesta roll the dice, given the statistic du jour: groundball-flyball ratio. Derek Lowe, last year’s AL leader in grass destroyed, is a prime example of how the Dodgers are valuing this category. So are Jose Valentin and Jeff Kent, both of whom have a penchant for hitting the ball in the air (indeed, the former had the lowest G/F in the majors at 0.53). Erickson, as some of us may recall, is himself adept at inducing grounders. In 1997 and 1998, he led the AL with ratios of 2.88 and 2.85. In 2002, his most recent full season, he posted 2.31 against a league average of 1.16. For his career, the number stands at 2.44.
It remains to be seen whether Erickson will find renewed success under Jim Colborn’s tutelage, just as Wilson Alvarez and Jose Lima have. But, if he makes the team, Erickson can at least add to DePodesta’s sample size and help the team figure out just how significant G/F truly is at Chavez Ravine.

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