The Long Reliever

If this series goes seven, there is talk that the Mets might start Darren Oliver. But Oliver hasn’t started all year, and for good reason. As I noted back in May, Oliver has a very pronounced record, going all the way back to his rookie year in 1993, of pitching much better out of the bullpen. I’d rather see him stay in that comfort zone that allowed him to have his best year in more than a decade. The breakdown:

S/R G IP IP/G ERA H/9 HR/9 2B/9 BB/9 K/9
S 228 1299.1 5.70 5.14 10.27 1.13 2.24 3.58 5.17
R 123 188.2 1.53 3.91 8.49 1.05 1.24 4.10 7.01

Sources for split stats here and here.

Question of the Day

The 1973 Mets entered October with a tremendous 4-man rotation, a solid bullpen – and a completely punchless offense led by Rusty Staub, Cleon Jones and John Milner. Which would you rather have in the postseason: that team or this one, as it stands today? Great as Seaver, Koosman, and Matlack were, and as big an impact as big-time starters can make, I think I’d still take the current team, with its deep, powerful and versatile offense, and I’d certainly take this team if you added El Duque back into the mix.

Macha Macha Macha

Blez looks at the firing of Ken Macha, which seems unfair to me, but it is true that the one thing the Beane-era A’s have never had is a manager who could be an emotional leader. Even within the parameters of selecting a guy who will go along with the Beane program, you would like to see them hire someone who is a little more Captain Kirk and a little less Mr. Spock. In fact, on a team where roster management and strategy are largely decided above the manager’s pay grade, you would think the emphasis on getting a good leader of men would be greater.
Meanwhile, the Cubs hope Lou Piniella can recreate the success he has had in Tampa. Or was that the postseason success he had in Seattle? I do think, though, that the Cubs would be well-served by trying to acquire A-Rod to replace Ronny Cedeno at shortstop, and the hiring of Piniella could help that. But the Cubs, in sharp contrast to the A’s, also need to shake a two-decade-long aversion to patience at the plate; adding another guy who hits solo homers won’t help that. Even a middle of the order with two patient hitters (Lee and A-Rod) needs tablesetters.

The Washout

So the Mets get cosmic justice for the Game One rainout in New York with a Game Five rainout in St. Louis, as tonight’s game is put off to tomorrow. I don’t want to sound like Whitey Herzog here, bemoaning that the particulars of the postseason schedule didn’t precisely fit the relative strengths of his and his opponents’ pitching staffs, but it is in general a good thing, as well as obviously good for the Mets, that Glavine and Weaver will now start on their regular rest. (It’s even better news, in a way, if this tempts LaRussa to start Carpenter on short rest, since the Mets need to beat him once anyway). Of course, it’s even more urgent than it was in the 1986 NLCS (with Mike Scott looming) that the Mets put this away in six with Glavine and Maine, rather than have to go back to the grab bag of Perez, an injured Trachsel, or a reliever who hasn’t started all year (Oliver or, less likely, Heilman – especially less likely with no rest after Games 5&6) to start Game 7 against Suppan.
As to Trachsel, unlike some, I don’t fault him for coming out of the game the other night after being hit by a line drive – he was about ready to be yanked anyway, and the injury gave the Mets time to get Oliver warm. And a really deep bruise can be nasty. But if the Mets did want him to pitch Game 7 (I’d rather see Perez, at this point, if only because he’s more likely to make it to the third or fourth inning before melting down), I can’t see why a days-old bruise, painful as it is, would prevent a professional athlete from wanting that ball.
The other good news: if the Mets do get to the next round, El Duque will be ready to go. Hold on: the cavalry is coming! (that is, to the extent that “the cavalry” means “a 40-year-old pitcher with a 4.66 ERA who hasn’t pitched in three weeks”).

NLCS Game Four

Anthony Reyes’ 5.06 ERA this season makes him the easy favorite in tonight’s pitching matchup…the goal for Oliver Perez tonight is twelve outs. If Perez gets through four innings with one or even two runs allowed, everything else will be gravy; any shorter leash and he would not be a starter at all.
A few things appeared in nthe cold light of morning today. One is something I should have noted before the series, since I had seen it in the numbers: Suppan had a great second half, such that the Cards should be regarded as a team with a 1-2 punch, rather than Carpenter’s one man band.
Another is that the loss of Floyd and Valentin looking largely out of gas means that the Mets aren’t really the same offensive team, let alone the same pitching rotation.
A third is that, at least once Game One was rained out, my assessment of the dynamics should have been the reverse of the Dodger series – the Mets were much better served putting this one away early rather than getting into a war of attrition.
Top One
I really would have liked a run to stake Perez with in the top of the first.
Bottom One
Ugh, Wright and Delgado both butcher that play. Perez is not the guy you want to see errors behind.
Double play; redemption for the defense.
My kids have nearly all the regular ads committed to memory by this point. An occupational hazard of watching playoff TV in baseball or basketball.
Perez…seriously, this is like the ’86 Mets starting Bruce Berenyi in the NLCS.
Top Two
Jim Edmonds is keeping very busy tonight.
Oliver Perez walks! Yes it’s still 0-0 and yes these are two talented pitchers, but you can see them both playing with fire. A wise man will wait Reyes out.
You know what? Ugly as this has been between the ending of Game Two, the beginning of Game Three, and the innings of mutual ennui since then, all the Mets really need to do is get a lead in this game and my faith and optimism will be restored. I’m easy that way.
Bottom Two
As much as I have griped about the condition of the Mets starting rotation, it should be borne in mind that the collapse of the Cards down the stretch was caused as much as anything by the injury/fadeout of Rolen and Edmonds, and neither guy has really been himself yet.
How many balls have been trapped or gone off the fingers by the Mets outfielders in this series?
Chavez throwing out Belliard at third was huge – the Cardinals get a run, but the difference between man on first two outs and first and third one out is… well, Perez has to work to make this a big inning now; he should get out of this.
And he does.
Top Three
Man, Lo Duca is slow. The play that captured this was in Game Two when Speizio and Pujols both bobbled the ball and he was still thrown out by 10 feet. In fact, I suspect Lo Duca is distinctly slower now than he was three or four months ago.
I would not like Beltran so much, were I a Cardinals fan. Line shot homer to right, 1-1.
Wright homers into the left field bullpen. Hope has returned.
Bottom Three
Six outs down for Perez, six to go with no more than one more run and he will have exceeded expectations.
They just replayed the two homers. Wright’s swing was the big power swing, looked like a home run. Beltran just sort of reached out and golfed his.
Nice try by Jose Reyes to fake dropping a line drive by Pujols to get a double play. Reyes needs to spend some time with Vlade Divac.
Well, the Cards tie it back up on the 2-out triple to right bobbled by Shawn Green. Green is not having a good series in the field.
Three outs to go with no runs scoring for Perez to cover the spread. Then we’re playing with the house’s money.
Top Four, 2-2.
It’s 8:20 pm in St. Louis. The lights are on. And Tony La Russa is wearing sunglasses. What does he think this is, the World Series of Poker?
You get a real sense of scale of major league players when you see Endy Chavez listed at 195 pounds.
Maybe I missed him but I don’t believe there has been a Stan Musial sighting yet. Is he waiting for the Series? Or is Stan the Man finally getting too old to show up for events like this?
Wow, Reyes has thrown 84 pitches after striking out Perez. Perez, who is hardly economical with his pitches, has thrown 49 to get just two fewer outs.
Bottom Four, 2-2
New Busch is definitely tough on long fly balls – not like the old 80s-era Busch, but a bandbox this is not.
If you look at the transactions, La Russa in his short major league career was employed by the A’s, White Sox and Cardinals. Interesting coincidence.
Belliard steals second as Molina strikes out. The throw beat him, but Valentin just didn’t quite get the tag down. As McCarver points out, this is partly due to Molina obstructing Lo Duca. But no harm done, due to some outstanding defense by Valentin on the next play.
Perez has done his job now; if he gets in any more trouble he can be bailed out without disaster.
Top Five, 2-2.
3-run homer for Delgado! It is now actually imaginable that Perez could get the win in this game. A lot of baseball still to play, but that’s a major lift. I had to run upstairs and tell my 9-year-old son, who just got sent to bed under protest.
Momentum is such a fickle thing, almost as fickle as Fox announcers – suddenly the flairs dropping in and botched grounders are going against the Cardinals.
Perez is batting with two on and two outs in the top of the fifth. And you know what? I’m fine with that. What a turn of events.
And he’s ahead in the count again. You really would not want to walk him to face Reyes with the bases juiced. I mean really.
But he whiffs. On to…
Bottom Five, 5-2
Eckstein goes waaaaay deep, and yes, Virginia, this is still a tight October ballgame. I get Perez out if anybody gets on ahead of Pujols.
Willie Randolph calls both Perez and Darren Oliver “Ollie.” Perez, if he ever does recapture his 2004 form, could use an intimidating nickname.
And whiffing Pujols with a pitch at his eyes is a reminder that this is still a possibility for this guy.
Top Six, 5-3 Mets.
Reyes singles to right – the ball just jumps off his bat.
To answer a question in the comments, yes those in-game interviews are idiotic, uncomfortable and risk giving away too much information to boot. But at least Tony took his shades off.
First and (Reyes on) third, nobody out. This is at least one run you need to add.
Beltran walks, bases loaded for Charlie the Cat. Hancock is having a tough series.
Deep fly for Delgado, which is what you wanted there. Ground rule double, two runs in, 7-3.
Buck is busting on Speizio for missing that, but let’s face it, Speizio is an aging infielder playing out of position.
Hancock walks Wright on four pitches. Cards fans are unhappy, and it takes a lot to get them restive.
Ron Livingston, action hero? Not sure I am buying that.
Bases loaded, nobody out, up 7-3 – at this point you just want to keep bleeding in runs, even if with outs.
Green singles – only one run in, but we’re still bases loaded, nobody out. 8-3.
Valentin drills one down the left field line for a double, empties the bases, 11-3. Now, I feel good. Heck, we may see Perez go 8 innings tonight.
Chavez strikes out on a pitch in the dirt. Really, you have to wonder if he takes that cut if they didn’t just get an 8-run lead. Perez bats again.
In a normal postseason, you try to battle against getting too high or too low, which is a powerful temptation. I thought it would be different now that I’m older. But it’s been awful hard to avoid, given how precarious is the state of the Mets rotation – everything turns on avoiding situations where you need a well-pitched game.
Edmonds hits the fence to catch the third out trailing by 8 runs. That’s why he’s Jim Edmonds.
Bottom Six, 11-3 Mets.
Perez goes right after Rolen and Edmonds, gets a popup and a home run. Hey, that’s how you pitch with a big lead – don’t fool around, don’t worry about solo homers. (Beltran hits the fence trying to rope it back, too, but more smoothly).
Home run Molina. Well, maybe after this inning you get Perez out of there, if not sooner. You don’t want to damage his confidence, and you don’t want to turn this into a game again.
11-5, Bradford’s coming in. The end was ugly but only because of the big lead did Perez go that last inning. And yes, to answer another comment, the Mets would really like to see a rainout tomorrow so Glavine can get back on his regular rest. In 1986, we didn’t care if it rained (as it did twice), at least for the Mets’ staff (it did matter that rain let Bruce Hurst start Game 7 rather than Oil Can Boyd.)
Preston Wilson being another reminder of 1986.
Top 7, 11-5 Mets.
Beltran goes deep; that’s the Braden Looper we know and love. Nice twist of the knife there, needed or not.
Bottom Seven, 12-5.
Cards need seven runs, Mets need six outs. I like those odds.
Delgado’s favorite actor is Morgan Freeman. If he were 10 years older it would be Lou Gosset jr.
Bradford still in; I’m feeling like a Roberto Hernandez sighting is in order soon, but Wagner (?!?) is warming up. OK, never mind that, he’s not; they just mentioned him while I had my head down typing between pitches.
Top Eight, 12-5 Mets
It’s 10:11pm in St. Louis, and LaRussa is still wearing sunglasses.
Buck is asking if you start Perez or Trachsel in Game 7. This, you see, is why a Game 7 is not a hopeful prospect. I’d rather start Heilman and see if he can go 4, if he hasn’t been burned by then. In 1986, Roger McDowell went 5 in NLCS Game 6 (and had surgery the next spring)
Bottom 8, 12-5 Mets.
They are saying they will ask Randolph before tomorrow who will start Game 7. I predict they will not get an answer.
Top 9, 12-5 Mets
I can hear the Mets fans in the stadium now, doing the “Jose, Jose Jose Jose” chant.
The Braden Looper Face is in the house.
Somewhere, an Astros fan is throwing things at the screen after a gratuitous shot of Jesse Orosco celebrating the 1986 NLCS Game Six clinching strikeout.
And there’s Mookie in the stands!
La Russa is warming up his closer down 7 runs. You can’t fault the man for lacking optimism.
Reyes gets doubled off first for running on contact on a ball in the air with one out. Granted, Reyes doesn’t do the space cadet bit in a close game, but that still should not happen.
Bottom Nine, 12-5
Needless to say, you need to put this one away. In the books, as Howie Rose would say. Mota is in; what ever did happen to Hernandez? Is he tired from pitching last night?
One on, one out. The Mets really did need the 12 runs tonight, even if they win by seven.
It’s over. What can I say? Amazin’

Game Three, NLCS

LIVEBLOGGED DURING THE GAME
Let me say, first of all, that I – like many other Mets fans – will be very happy after this season is done to never see Steve Trachsel in a Mets uniform again. Granted, Trachsel pitched some fine baseball before his back injury in 2004, but he’s never been the same since.
It’s not just that Trachsel pitches badly so often, but that he most frequently pitches his worst at the start of the game, so there’s no way to get him out of there before he does his damage.
With Trachsel leaving in the second, that rainout stripping the Mets of a travel day off is looking huge right now.
And so is Game Two. It was the fifth time in fourteen postseason serieses in franchise history that the Mets have blown a lead at home in the sixth inning or later – and it has not been a good omen:
1. 1973 NLCS Game 4: up 1-0 into the 7th, Mets lose 2-1 in 12 innings. Mets go on to win the clincher the next game.
2. 1973 World Series Game 3: up 2-0 into the 6th and 2-1 into the 8th, and ended up losing 3-2 in 11 innings. Mets lost the series in 7 games.
3. 1988 NLCS Game 4: the Mike Scioscia game – up 4-2 into the 9th, Scioscia homers off Dwight Gooden, and the Dodgers win 5-4 in 12 innings. Mets lost the series in 7 games.
4. 2000 World Series Game 5: Mets lead 2-0 into the 6th, Yankees tie it up and score 2 in the 9th to end the series.
Of course, much as I’d like to see no more Trachsel next year, I also don’t especially want tonight’s injury to promote Oliver Perez to third starter.
I’m already very sick of Scott Speizio’s . . . it’s not really a beard so much as a tassel.
I guess they will ask Suppan after the game why he was winking at Trachsel before his home run – maybe he was talking some trash about the last homer he hit off Trachsel?
I was astonished this morning to see the papers all blaming Wagner for last night’s debacle – sure, Wagner blew up and lost the game, but Mota was the one who lost the lead.
Why was I not surprised at the graphic last night saying that Lo Duca’s favorite actor is Robert DiNiro?
I’m not thrilled to see Oliver batting in the third, but I guess you can’t burn all your pitchers in the third inning.
Down by less than 5, I think that triple by Reyes went far enough that it could have been an inside the park HR.
I’d feel a lot better about the Mets being in a hole here if they were hitting the ball well.
TRIVIA QUIZ – Answer below the fold. They said that Jim Leyland is now the 7th manager to take a team to the World Series in each league. Can you name the other six?
Great job by Darren Oliver to settle back down, albeit after aggravating the bases-loaded situation he inherited from Trachsel.
Ack! Valentin gets thrown out stretching a single to a double down 5-0. Which completely kills the inning.
Now I’m really baffled as to why Oliver bats a second time leading off the sixth. Is Randolph writing off Game 3?
OK, I am ready for Gonzalez and McCarver to shut up now. Which is not to say I’m not sick of Joe Buck, too.
It’s extremely frustrating to see Yadier Molina ripping the ball – I’d call him the poor man’s Ben Molina, but Jose already has that role filled.
If the Mets lose this series, the odds of Omar giving Jeff Suppan an imprudently large free agent contract have to be rising. (Although as I have noted before, Minaya hasn’t actually pulled the trigger on that many bad moves – it’s just the things he’s been rumored to do.. And of course you can’t argue with the results of a lot of his gambles.). Suppan is basically the same pitcher Trachsel used to be, a guy who gives you a steady 32-33 starts a year right around the league ERA. I remember when he was a hugely touted (“next Greg Maddux”) Red Sox prospect, but he’s long since made his own record to be judged against.
Roberto Hernandez is definitely leading the team in most games warmed up without pitching. Looks like we might see him come in next, though.
I really feel bad for Matt Cerrone; if you haven’t been there, his site is down, at the worst possible time for a Mets blog to be down.
It would really be nice for Wright to get a hit in this series .. . . after that seventh inning I’m all but ready to write this game off myself. If you can’t tell, I’m not in a real optimistic mood right now.
I know there’s no one way to win a baseball game, but it will be very, very useful if the Mets can score in the top of the first tomorrow night before Perez takes the mound. The upside is that a good outing by Perez would wash away the past two years.
OK, we go to the 8th inning needing five runs before the Cards get six outs. It can be done; this team can do it.
Leadoff walk in the 8th for Green. It’s a start.
Make that five runs vs. three outs. Now we are in serious miracle time.
Down without a fight. The only good things there are to say about this game are (1) it’s just one game, (2) it’s over, and (3) they didn’t burn much of the bullpen, other than the fact that we won’t see Darren Oliver again for a while.

Continue reading Game Three, NLCS

First Blood

Well, the Mets have finally lost one, and a crusher, sending them to St. Louis with Trachsel, Oliver Perez, and Glavine on short rest coming up. Ugh. The crucial mistake here was Randolph leaving in Mota too long – I knew after the marathon at bat to Pujols that something bad was going to happen to Mota in that inning. Someone should go back and count how many pitches the Cards fouled off tonight, between Pujols and Eckstein’s at bat against Heilman.
Off to bed – more on this game later.

Game One

Listening on the radio…will update as I go.
Glavine strikes out Pujols! They should put that on a poster, like the famous John Starks dunk (hope this series ends better than that one).
Jeff Weaver is pitching a no-hitter.
Floyd is hurting, and is out of the game. That did not take long.
You know, Encarnacion can pop a big hit now and then, but I have to believe that batting him cleanup is a deliberate ploy to get the Mets to walk Pujols.
Oof! Pujols doubled off first by Beltran! Inning over!
Where did the Cardinals get this Jeff Weaver guy? He can’t be related to the guy who pitched for the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels.
This game is starting to remind me of Game One of the 1986 World Series. Come to think of it, there wasn’t much scoring in Game One in the NLCS in 1986 or 1988. Game Three of the 1999 NLCS comes to mind as well, Glavine being prominently involved in that one.
BELTRAN HOMER! 2-0 Mets!
Delgado doubles. It’s midnight and Weaver just turned into a pumpkin.
Tyler Johnson on in relief. Allowed 56 baserunners this year in 36.1 innings.
I don’t like seeing Mota instead of Heilman in the 8th.
Two outs, Eckstein on first, Pujols on deck, 2-run lead, Mota really needs to get Preston Wilson here.
Bradford warming up – because Bradford keeps the ball down, I’d rather have him face Pujols in that situation than Heilman or certainly Mota.
Mota back from 3-0 to 3-2 on Wilson. Foul out to Delgado! Whew. Pujols will lead off 9th and can hit the ball to Hartford and it won’t matter.
Braden Looper is in! It’s Christmas in October!
2d & 3d, 1 out. Lo Duca on third. I think I would run for Lo Duca here; the insurance run would be big.
Instead, Wright grounds out. Need a hit from Chavez for the big insurance run.
Nope, lineout to Edmonds. !^%$#^!% Edmonds.
You can hear on the radio how hard Wagner is throwing. I still say Randy Myers is the only Mets closer I have really, truly trusted.
Two outs, none on. Wagner can’t do this without drama, can he?
Wagner walks Rolen. That’s more like it. Speizio will come up as the tying run. Other than Pujols he’s the only Card to hit in September.
The Mets Win! Theeeeeee Me-e-e-ets Win!
Well, that was unexpected: a shutout and only three pitchers used. Of course, that was Glavine on regular rest; it’s all downhill from here (not that Maine is a problem, but he probably won’t go 7). Now we hold our breath for word on Floyd’s ankle.

Um, Typo?

I only recently discovered that The Baseball Cube has historical minor league stats going back to some time in the 60s or 70s, albeit of spotty coverage. But this Dave Cochrane page must be a typo – I think I would have heard if a guy, especially a guy in the Mets system, had stolen 800 bases in the minors in the 1980s, including a single season high of 146. I suspect the walks, steals and strikeouts columns got transposed somehow (note his persistent single-digit walk totals).
Also, while looking through the site, I got to look at Dan Norman’s minor league numbers, and let’s just say that for a guy who was supposed to be the key guy in a trade for Tom Seaver, they don’t pass the smell test. Norman batted .297 and slugged .441 as a 19 year old in rookie ball in 1974, reasonable enough numbers, but in 1161 at bats between A, AA and AAA between then and The Trade, the man batted .269 and slugged .422. I know the Cube lacks walks and steals data for those years and Norman hit a ton of triples, so he presumably was quite fast, but nothing in his subsequent career suggests a budding Rickey Henderson. The Mets should have known, and probably knew, that Norman was at best a middling prospect with limited chances to become a major league regular.

Milledge Watching

Another reason I was baffled by the Mets putting Anderson Hernandez on the NLCS roster is that, with Cliff Floyd hobbling on a bum Achilles, you would think you would want some extra insurance in the outfield before another infielder. I expected to see either Milledge or (gasp) Ricky Ledee, even notwithstanding Milledge’s immaturity and inconsistency and the fact that Ledee appears to have nothing left.
While I was thinking of that, I took a look at Milledge’s 2005-06 numbers at AA, AAA and the majors; they add up to a full season’s worth of at bats, and while you can’t get a lot of information about quality by lumping together two seasons’ work (at age 20-21) at three different levels, when combined they do offer a bit of insight into the type of player Milledge is and could be:

AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB K SB-CS HBP SF DP AVG SLG OBP
666 190 45 6 15 99 82 69 153 25-17 23 4 6 .285 .438 .370

Conclusions:
*Milledge isn’t much of a home run hitter yet, though at his age and with his doubles power, he should still develop some home run pop as he ages and fills out.
*He’s unlikely ever to be a successful base thief; almost all successful base stealers are already successful at it by the time they get to AA ball. Again, Milledge’s youth is an asset, as he may be able to learn some, but a guy who is stealing at less than a 60% clip even in the minors is never going to be Carlos Beltran on the basepaths.
*I didn’t realize how often Milledge gets hit by pitches. That will help his OBP long term as long as it doesn’t lead to a lot of injuries.
*Milledge obviously doesn’t have good strike zone judgment at the major league level, but he’s not a no-walks guy in the minors, which suggests the potential to learn.
I still think he’s an excellent prospect, although even in 2007 he may need more AAA seasoning before handing him an everyday job in Queens.

Horror in Manhattan

The big story today – I’ve been hearing the sirens from my office – is a small plane crashing into an apartment complex on 72d and York. Word just came across Fox News that the plane was registered to Yankee (and ex-Met) pitcher Cory Lidle. No word on who was on board.
UPDATES: ESPN says Lidle was on board and is dead:

Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle died Wednesday when a small plane he was piloting crashed into a 50-story condominium tower Wednesday on Manhattan’s Upper East Side.

This is shocking, shades of Thurman Munson and then some. Presumably Lidle was on his way home from the end of baseball season. I always liked Lidle when he was with the Mets, and he had some decent years, especially in Oakland. Lidle was 34.
Here’s an article from September about Lidle as a pilot. As you will recall, Lidle was a descendant of Robert Fulton, the inventor of the steamboat; I guess the interest in transportation ran in his family.
Readers at Athletics Nation remember Lidle. Commenters at MetsBlog are talking about a tough interview Lidle did with Mike and the Mad Dog earlier this week.
Bloomberg’s doing a press conference now. He’s basically saying NTSB will have to clear up what happened, nobody knows much else for certain yet, reports are conflicting. Air traffic control lost contact around 59th street as Lidle was heading north. Bloomberg is utterly emotionless.
This obviously casts a very serious pall over tonight’s scheduled games, including two of Lidle’s former teams. The Mets may not play anyway, given the rain (more on the implications of that later).
Via Instapundit, though, a smidgen of humor: Alec Baldwin being . . . well, Alec Baldwin.

The NLCS Roster

Via the invaluable MetsBlog, you can go check out the Mets’ NLCS roster. Cliff Floyd will indeed be on the roster, though I expect we will at most see him pinch hitting for the moment. The only change appears to be the substitution of Anderson Hernandez for Royce Ring, which I don’t understand (why would you need fewer pitchers in a longer series?) unless Randolph wants to carry a guy to pinch run for Lo Duca, Floyd, Franco and perhaps Delgado. Cerrone also reports that the Mets have not abandoned hope of El Duque being ready to go for the World Series.
Ryan McConnell debates whether this season is a success if the Mets don’t win it all. Entering the playoffs I felt like the Mets needed to do two things for me to be satisfied: climb over the weak NL field to the World Series, and outlast the Yankees. They did the second; as to the first, if they lose to a Cardinals team with poor pitching several holes in their lineup and as many injury problems as the Mets, I will go home disappointed. If the Mets make the Series and lose to Detroit or Oakland, I’ll of course wish they had won, but I’ll have no real basis to complain.

I Need A Zito

Some people will tell you that tonight’s Game One starter for the A’s, Barry Zito, is overrated. They will look at his mediocre W-L records for contending teams, his solid but unspectacular ERAs, his also solid but unspectacular K/BB numbers, compared to the money and attention Zito will attract this offseason, and conclude that Zito isn’t really even a legitimate number one starter, let alone a guy who will likely end up as the highest paid pitcher in the game.
All of that is true as far as it goes, but it also misses the point of why Zito was so valuable to the A’s that Billy Beane kept him around while he was dealing Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, and why teams will be falling over themselves to get him. You see, there are two things you want, at a minimum, from an expensive investment in a starting pitcher: consistent durability and consistent quality. And Zito is among baseball’s best in that regard. Let’s look at the major league pitchers who have met, for at least three years running, what you would think of as the minimum tests for a star pitcher: 200 innings pitched and an ERA at least equal to the league (measured by ERA+, baseball-reference.com’s park-adjusted comparison to the league ERA). As it turns out, there are but eight pitchers who have met that standard three or more seasons in a row entering 2007:

Pitcher Yrs 200 Age
Barry Zito 6 6 29
Carlos Zambrano 4 4 26
Greg Maddux 4 4 41
Freddy Garcia 3 6 32
Johan Santana 3 3 28
Brandon Webb 3 3 28
Roy Oswalt 3 3 29
Jon Garland 3 3 27

“200” is consecutive seasons of 200 or more innings, regardless of meeting the quality threshold; “age” is 2007 age. To complete the picture, let’s list the guys who have thrown 200 more innings three or more years, but with a shorter string of those seasons beating the league ERA (bear in mind that some of them have beat the league ERA a few times in that stretch; “0” just means they missed it in 2006).

Pitcher Yrs 200 Age
Livan Hernandez 0 7 “32”
Jamie Moyer 2 6 44
Mark Buehrle 0 6 28
Jake Westbrook 1 3 29
Doug Davis 0 3 31
Randy Johnson 0 3 43

One note on the arbitrary 200-IP cutoff here – if Maddux had thrown an additional two-thirds of an inning in 2002, he’d top the list with 19 years in a row of 200 innings and a 100 or better ERA+.
No, Zito isn’t Pedro Martinez; he’s never led the league in ERA or strikeouts. But Pedro isn’t pitching this week, and Zito is, and that counts too. Don’t think GMs the league over aren’t excited by Zito’s four times leading the American League in starts. Just as with Don Sutton’s Hall of Fame credentials, in an age of ever decreasing starting pitcher workloads – this year’s Mets setting a new historical nadir – there is much to be said for the sheer dogged persistence of a guy who hitches up the plow every fifth day ready to give his best effort.

Classic Quote

On David Wright’s admirers:

There might’ve been more of them during spring training, but the signs still show up at Shea.
“David, I love you!” And “Marry me, David,” flapped by young and not-so young girls on the off chance Mets third baseman David Wright might be looking.
“He makes them himself, you know,” Billy Wagner said, nodding at his teammate. “We ask him if he’s handed out the day’s signs.”

The Bandwagon Stops

Defeat is an orphan:

Four hours after they were eliminated by the Detroit Tigers, the New York Yankees pulled up to Yankee Stadium in three buses late Saturday night, greeted by fewer than a dozen fans.
With as many police as supporters on hand, most of the players quickly went to their cars and drove away. . . Backup infielder Andy Phillips was the only player who talked with reporters.

Ouch. In all seriousness, this one has to hurt worst of all for Yankee fans (well, except for 2004), given how rapidly the team just froze up and went down without a fight. Like I said: just good pitching and a short series. But that doesn’t help you through the winter months.

Bring on the Cards!

Time to break that old 80s greatest hit, hatred of the Cardinals.
Vince Coleman
Tommie Herr
John Tudor
Todd Worrell
Willie McGee
Whitey Herzog
Terry Pendleton
Yeah, now I have your attention. I should put some Def Leppard records on to get in the mood.
The good news is, the series starts Wednesday, so with three days off the Mets can get all three of their starters set, whereas the Cardinals can’t start Carpenter on his regular rest until Game Three.
UPDATE: OK, want some more contemporary names? Braden Looper. Jeff Weaver (that’s for the Yankee fans). And of course, it’s every baseball fan’s duty to hate Tony La Russa.
Besides, if you liked the 2004 NLCS, you have to want a Beltran-Pujols rematch.

Gamer

Who needs injury reports when you’ve got a blog? Cliff Floyd speaks:

I want to play, and I don’t know what to think. I wanted to score that run. It’s the postseason. You don’t hold back. We wanted that run, and now my leg might hold me back.
My Achilles betrayed me…
The good news is that I’ve got Monday and Tuesday to get treatment before we play again. And I’ve already started treatment with ice. I’ll be wearing one of those boots again. I don’t know, maybe it’ll get better in two days. If it doesn’t, I’ll deal with it. Someone already suggested to me that I could be the DH if we get into the World Series.
I’ll just rub some champagne on it and see, or I’ll have a few beers. Maybe a few more, and by the time I get to Wednesday, I’ll be good to go.

H/t MetsBlog. If you don’t like Cliff Floyd, well, you just don’t like baseball.

Jobless Joe?

I don’t see a specific story on the website but the talk of the TV is that the Daily News is reporting that Hated (or Pitied?) Yankees will fire Joe Torre, perhaps as early as today, and bring back Lou Piniella. Mike Lupica wants it to happen. This strikes me as insane – I’m no lover of Torre but how exactly is it his fault? This is a veteran team, and they just picked a bad time to lose 3 in a row to a good pitching staff. And I’m not sure what Piniella adds to the picture.

It Was A Good Day

Very quick thoughts here, perhaps to be expanded upon later:
*METS WIN! METS WIN! METS WIN! METS WIN! METS WIN! METS WIN!
*I guess we’ll never know who the Game Four starter would really have been. I fear finding out in the next round, though.
*Broxton bombed – but not really. That long sixth inning was a replay of the 1986 Game Six rally in terms of dinks and dunks into short center. Still, Grady did leave him out there an awful long time. Randolph also left Mota in so long as to really tempt fate, when there’s really no reason why a fresh Roberto Hernandez is inferior to a tired Mota.
*I sure hope Cliff Floyd is OK.
*The Yankees were, purely and simply, done in by the 1-2 punch of a very short series and good pitching. Of course, as I have noted before, if you hold the view that the Yankees’ victories in 1996-2000 were due to some superior reserve of clutch-ness, you need to find scapegoats. Hence, A-Rod will get all the blame.
*I have to think the pressure to trade A-Rod for pennies on the dollar will now be irresistible, most likely to a team that can return him to his natural position. Granted, that’s still a lot of pennies. The team with perhaps the best case for making a run is the Cardinals – Edmonds, Carpenter, Rolen and Izzy aren’t getting any younger, and upgrading from Eckstein to A-Rod would be huge on both sides of the ball. A deal won’t make sense except for a team that can take on a substantial amount of the remaining 2/3 of A-Rod’s salary the Yanks are on the hook for. It won’t make any sense for the Yankees, but the focus of media/fan anger at him has passed the tipping point of rationality.
*Frickin’ Jeff Kent. ^!#%!# Carlos Baerga.
*Will they never learn to never give the “Player of the Game” until the game is over?

Blowback

In 1977, Mike Torrez was a big part of the Yankees stretch drive against the Red Sox, and pitched brilliantly in the World Series. Sox fans, having suffered through watching Torrez lead the Hated Yankees to vitcory, were ecstatic when the Red Sox got Torrez – only to see him hurt them even worse in 1978, going 1-4 with a 5.96 ERA against the Yanks, including the notorious Bucky Dent home run that decided the season in its 163rd game.
In 2000, Joe Torre – the man who led the Mets to three straight seasons of 95 or more losses – managed the Yanks to their fourth World Championship in five years, defeating the Mets in the Subway Series.
Today, the Yankees finally found themselves on the other end of such a turnaround, as Kenny Rogers, notorious for his playoff flops in New York, stuck a dagger in the Bronx Bombers and their vaunted lineup.
Somewhere in the darkness of Comerica Park, he broke even.

Hard to Get Good Help

If you count tonight’s liklely starters and the likely starters for the remaining divisional series games that are certain to be played (counting tonight, 2 in the Yankees-Tigers series and 1 in each of the others), 26 different starting pitchers will have taken the mound – and of those 26, the cream of the major league crop after a long season, the frontline starters for the best teams in baseball, 12 are either (1) rookies, (2) age 40 or older, or (3) had ERAs of 4.89 or higher (the league ERAs were 4.55 in the AL, 4.48 in the NL). And this is before Oliver Perez (6.55 ERA), Carlos Silva (5.94 ERA), Rich Harden (9 starts all season) and Brad Penny (6.25 ERA after the All Star Break) take the mound, in Perez and Silva’s cases replacing 40-something Orlando Hernandez and rookie Francisco Liriano. The guys who are counted as OK here include second-year starters Chien-Ming Wang and Chris Young, 37-year-old Mike Mussina, Jeremy Bonderman (4.72 career ERA), Jeff Suppan (4.60 career ERA, 5.83 ERA before the All Star Break), Brad Radke (pitching with a career-ending stress fracture in his shoulder), and Jaret Wright (career ERA of 5.07; this year, 4.49 ERA an an average of 5.05 innings per start). If you include Wright, you can conclude that half of the frontline playoff starters are very old, very inexperienced or below-average pitchers.

Amazin’ Already

What a Mets game today:
1. The 9-4-2-2 Double Play
Obviously, the headline play – if you somehow missed it – was Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew both being thrown out at home on the same play. I’m not sure which is worse – Kent getting thrown out at the plate coming in from second on a ball that bounced off the right field fence, or Drew trying to score when he had to see that the guy ahead of him wasn’t even home safely yet. Dodger third base coach Rich Donnelly, the least popular man in LA right now, says the two were so close together he couldn’t switch his signs fast enough:

Kent froze between second base and third, waiting to see if the ball would drop. Drew, with a better angle at first base, could see the ball slicing and knew it would fall safely.
Drew started running while Kent was still standing.
Rich Donnelly, the Dodgers’ third-base coach, saw Kent get a late break from second and knew he would have a hard time scoring. But as Donnelly started to raise his arms, the universal stop sign, he noticed that Drew was only about 10 feet behind Kent.
“If I held up Jeff,” Donnelly said, “we would have had two guys on third.”
Donnelly kept his arms by his side, watching Kent barrel toward home plate. When he turned back to third base, Drew flew right by him…
Drew never considered that the Mets might have a play on Kent. He said he did not even see Kent until he was halfway to home.
“I thought Jeff was scoring standing up,” Drew said. “I thought the play was on me.”

Of course, Drew and Kent are both pretty universally unpopular everywhere anyway… credit to Green for a great thrown and Valentin for the relay, and credit to John Maine, for screaming at Paul Lo Duca to get up and tag Drew (he had no idea there was another runner on the way), but after he tagged Drew, Lo Duca then came up in throwing position, looking to see where Russell Martin had got himself to. Maybe he thought Martin was next.
2. The Three Man Rotation
Willie Randolph can’t seriously be contemplating a 3-man rotation for the NLDS, can he? It makes some sense, and it’s the most logical reason why he would have pulled John Maine in a jam in the fifth inning, pitching on his regular rest and having thrown only 80 pitches and resulting in burning two relievers to get through the fifth. The Mets have a deep, healthy, relatively fresh pen and only three even semi-reputable starting pitchers, and they have Friday off; if Glavine also doesn’t go deep tomorrow, he and Maine could be available to start Games 4 & 5 on three days’ rest (if Glavine does go 7 or 8 innings, it’s less likely that there would be a Game 5).
3. Mota Is The Guy You Pinch Hit With, Not For?
The other really bizarre thing in this game was when, having burned relievers like there was no tomorrow but still with Oliver, Ring, Perez, Heilman, Hernandez and Wagner to go, Randolph let Guillermo Mota hit with 2 outs and the bases loaded up 4-1 in the sixth. I say you go for the jugular there and pinch hit; you pulled the starter early, why get antsy now about using too many pitchers?
4. Miscellany
I really didn’t need to see Steve Phillips in there. Mercifully I watched the game from crowded bars with no audible sound.
Great to see Floyd, in particular, contribute. What a massive homer that was.
Does Marlon Anderson get a pitch in the ear for his takeout slide at Reyes’ legs? We know Mota’s not above that.

Prepping for Game One

I’ve got just a minute to blog this morning – quick thoughts:
*There really is nothing more frustrating in professional sports than having a great regular season and not being able to field the same team in the postseason. With the exception of David Wells begging out of a big game, and perhaps Dwight Gooden running out of gas in 1996, this sort of thing never happens to the Yankees. That said, as to Game One itself, if we get John Maine pitching on his regular rest, well, we could do worse.
*This is the Dodgers lineup over the last two months, which in contrast to LA’s full-season numbers is a steady nine. While old warhorses like Kent and Lofton are locked in now, the really scary guys are Furcal and Drew. Furcal really is the star of this team, and a guy whose value to the Braves – and loss this year – was not fully appreciated. And has there been anything more improbable than Marlon Anderson slugging .813 over his tenure in LA?

Actual Runs on the Board

One of the more irritating arguments, to me, in favor of Ryan Howard over Albert Pujols for NL MVP is that Howard drove in more runs. Even aside from the fact that RBI depends on your teammates, the obvious problem with counting only total runs on the board is that while Howard drove in 12 more runs, Pujols scored 15 more – so in total, Pujols changed the numbers on the board directly more often than Howard, even in fewer games.
Just to help out in that debate, I thought I would run a chart (with much help from Pinto’s database) showing who actually put the most runs on the board in 2006. It’s not, as I said, the best measurement of offense, but it is an actual, real-world number and thus something of a reality check on these debates.
There are two ways to measure Runs and RBI together. One is the “Runs Produced” measure that seeks to ask how many runs a player contributed to – that’s (Runs + RBI – HR). Homers are subtracted out because a player would otherwise be double counted for driving in and scoring the same run.
Of course, driving in and scoring the same run is twice as valuable, since it means the hitter needed no further assistance, so I prefer a second measure – I’ll call it “Total Runs” here but I’m sure someone else has called it something else before and I just can’t remember what. This is a figure that gives a player half credit for driving the run in and half for scoring: (R+RBI)/2. Obviously, that means home run hitters are implicitly given their due for one full run, so it won’t cheat guys like Howard and David Ortiz who do a lot of their work with the longball.
The chart below ranks all players with 400 or more plate appearances by their Total Runs, and also adds a second measure: Total Runs per 27 outs, with outs calculated by ((AB-H)+SF+CS+DP). Again, this isn’t the most precise computation, but neither is it complicated theoretical metric; it’s just dividing runs by outs, and multplying by 27 for ease of comprehension.
So, who actually put the most runs on the board?

Continue reading Actual Runs on the Board

Barry Zito Market Value Watch

All signs point to “up”: Twins hitless through 4, now scoreless through 5.
UPDATE: 8 innings, 1 run, and Zito lowers his career postseason ERA to 2.43. And The Frank is Mighty and Shall Prevail: Frank Thomas homers twice. A’s lead 1-0, Santana or no Santana.
IN OTHER NEWS: Kenny Rogers is under police investigation for choking. No, seriously.
And El Duque is questionable for Game One due to a calf injury. It’s almost Lima Time! Either that, or Glavine does the Old Hoss Radbourn routine and starts every game.

BASEBALL/ Politics and Baseball

The New Republic has a silly effort to compare the Mets to the Democrats. Much as I do both baseball and politics on this site, I try not to mix the two, and I have mocked similar efforts in the past.
That said, if we are just having fun with the numbers, it’s time to update one of my favorite factoids: The Hated Yankees haven’t won a World Series with a Republican in the White House since 1958. In fact, the Yankees won their first pennant in 1921, and since then:
Democratic Administrations: 40 seasons, 19-3 in the World Series
Republican Administrations: 45 seasons, 7-10 in the World Series
(If you are wondering, just for comparison, the Mets have won 4 division titles, 3 pennants and 2 World Championships with a Republican in the White House, compared to 1 pennant and 2 Wild Cards under Democratic presidents; they’ve also had 9 last place finishes during Democratic administrations compared to 4 under Republicans).

First Round Predictions

Yankees over Tigers in 4: Yankee fans, of course, are drooling at the prospect of facing a team that heads its rotation with Kenny Rogers and his 8.85 career postseason ERA. The Yanks in recent years have shown three vulnerabilities in the postseason. First, like all teams, they are vulnerable to superior starting pitching; the Tigers could have that if Bonderman and Verlander get their acts together. Second, teams like the Angels that put the ball in play a lot can exploit their defensive weaknesses; those weaknesses have been less pronounced this year, and in any event the Tigers are a power team, not a contact team. And third, the Yankees have run into trouble when their bullpen wears down – but Mariano in particular is fresh entering October. Sheffield and Matsui are back too – Torre has always had a great record of getting his teams healthy in time for the playoffs. They are just too tall an order for Detroit, as good a year as the Tigers have had.
Twins over A’s in 5: The Twins are hot and have Santana . . . much as I’d love Oakland to finally win in October they are just not the strongest team, and they are heavily dependent on Frank Thomas staying healthy. It’s hardly impossible, and the holes in the Minnesota rotation make it unlikely that the Twins can put away anybody quickly, but I’d go with the Twins.
Padres over Cards in 3: I don’t think I have ever seen a team back into the playoffs as badly as the Cardinals, and it’s not an accident of a late-season slump – their pitching really is that bad, and their offense really is that shallow behind Pujols and Rolen.
Mets over Dodgers in 5: More on this tomorrow, time permitting. The echoes of 1988 frighten me; this is a different Dodgers team than that one (much deeper offense, but not similarly strong frontline pitching), while the Mets are much weaker (the 1988 team had a deceptively dominant offense and a deep bullpen, but they also had an outstanding rotation, and unlike these Mets they entered October with only their third starter unavailable rather than their ace and fifth starters; on the other hand, their defense was much weaker than this team’s). The Dodgers don’t have the one thing these Mets fear – proven quality lefthanded starters – but they will now start the talented Hong-Chih Kuo in Game Two at Shea and hope for a repeat of his mastery of the Mets when he last faced them.
This Mets team is built more for long serieses than short ones, as the depth of the bullpen and strength of the offense makes them well-designed for exhausting wars of attrition. Which is why the first round is scary. But I do think they are the better team, and the longer the series goes, the more it favors the Mets.

Thinking Blue

Jon Weisman has a good rundown of the Dodgers heading into the postseason. One thing that jumped out as I ran down the LA roster is just how many rookies played key roles on this team – LA got 67 Win Shares (25% of the team’s total) from Russell Martin, Takashi Saito, Andre Ethier, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Hong Chih-Kuo, and James Loney.
Which raises an interesting chicken-and-egg question. On the one hand, the staggering number of successful rookies in the NL this year may bode well for the future strength of the Senior Circuit. On the other hand, you could say that those rookies succeeded in part because the NL was relatively weak this year.

The Postseason Roster

What we know for sure is, Milledge, Ledee and Ring won’t be on it. Ring’s a talented LOOGY but not ready yet and not really needed. Ledee, no loss. Milledge was. I guess, just to nervous-making; the Mets don’t have a ton of righthanded bats, but he’s really not ready either. I would assume that that decision may be re-evaluated series by series based on how many lefties the Mets will face.
By the way, the Maddux-Glavine matchup for Game Two looks interesting.

Show Me The Money

Matt Cerrone has some perspective on claims that the Mets’ budget makes them “the new Yankees”. Specifically, the Yankees payroll is 62% higher than the #2 AL team; the Mets’ is 2.7% higher than the #2 NL team (the Dodgers, incidentally); and, of course, the Yankees’ is 93% higher than the Mets’. Cerrone also looks at the trend in the Mets’ payroll in recent years.

Birds of a Feather

A point I have made before, but underlined by their final season totals – you would have to look long and hard for three more similar hitters:

Player Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS DP BA Slg OBP
Jose Reyes 23 153 647 122 194 30 17 19 81 53 81 64 17 6 .300 .487 .354
Carl Crawford 24 151 600 89 183 20 16 18 77 37 85 58 9 8 .305 .482 .348
Hanley Ramirez 22 158 633 119 185 46 11 17 59 56 128 51 15 7 .292 .480 .353

Crawford is the weakest of the three only because he’s the oldest, not a shortstop and walks the least, but I suspect he may also have the best power potential. Joel Sherman of the Post (h/t Pinto and Rays Index) think Crawford might be available in a deal for a young pitcher, maybe to the Mets. For the Rays this is either sheer stupidity (trading their franchise player) or a sign of maturity (dealing from strength in the OF) depending on what they would expect to get back.
From the Mets’ perspective, while I’d love to see Crawford and Reyes as a 1-2 punch even despite the fact that this would combine two relatively low-walk guys atop the order, and while replacing Floyd with Crawford would save the Mets money (which could be invested in the rotation) while improving their defense and durability, the Pedro injury does make me doubt how much further they can be stripped of young arms. I’d certainly consider Pelfrey or Humber for Crawford – even the best pitching prospect is a much more speculative deal than a healthy young outfielder – but I suspect that the Mets’ need to hold on to credible contenders for the rotation will outrank any opportunity to convert young arms into equally young bats.

The Envelope, Please

There’s much to discuss with the playoffs coming up, but for now I thought I would give my quick rundown of who I would vote for in the two top individual awards (I ran out of time to do the Rookie of the Year):
NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Carlos Beltran
3. Ryan Howard
I expect Howard to win the award because he has the sexier numbers in the HR and RBI columns and had an amazing run in August and September. But neither Pujols nor Howard contributes much with the glove, so you have to compare their batting lines straight up. Pujols is the obvious winner, .331/.671/.431 to .313/.659/.425 despite Howard playing in a generally more favorable park (although Howard did actually put up better road numbers, and Beltran slugged .683 on the road). On the downside, Pujols hit into more DPs than Beltran and Howard combined, but I still think his offensive value gives him a decisive edge. And Pujols’ clutch hitting was certainly instrumental in the few Cardinal victories that helped carry a moribund team over the finish line.
(As a side note, Pujols’ injuries ruined the bizarre consistency of one stat line – in five prior major league seasons his career high in at bats was 592, his career low was 590).
Beltran missed more time than the other two, and his offensive numbers tailed off in September – but Beltran’s defense was a huge factor in the Mets finishing, among other things, 12 games ahead of the Phillies, and of course Beltran did all this in one of the toughest pitchers’ parks in the league.
Honorable mentions include Miguel Cabrera, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Lance Berkman, Alfonso Soriano, and Chase Utley.
AL MVP
1. Joe Mauer
2. Derek Jeter
3. David Ortiz
The best hitters in the AL this year were Travis Hafner and Manny Ramirez, but both missed over 30 games, which combined with zero defensive value is just too much. While there are a number of other plausible candidates among the big boppers, it really comes down to Ortiz, Jeter and Mauer.
Ortiz obviously has the offensive edge, but then he’s a zero on the basepaths and with the glove, and his OBP and batting average was lower than the other two. That leaves an awful lot of advantages for slugging alone to make up, and while Big Papi is clearly the emotional leader of the Sox and a major clutch hitter, you can only award so many points for leadership on a sinking ship.
When I started writing this up, I was still leaning Jeter. For the first time since I had Jeter #2 on my ballot (behind only Pedro) in 1999, the Yankee captain deserves a serious MVP look. Like Mauer, Jeter plays a crucial defensive position, and he has recovered a bit with the glove from his decline prior to the arrival of A-Rod (I intend to look at the defensive stats more closely when I get the chance, but ESPN’s Zone Rating stat, which measures how many of the balls in his “zone” of the field he gets to, lists Jeter seventh among nine regular AL shortstops, albeit in a fairly close group between #4 and #8).
Jeter’s main advantages over Mauer are threefold. First, Jeter played more – 14 more games, nearly 90 more plate appearances. That does a lot to balance out Mauer’s better percentage stats: .347/.507/.429 to .343/.483/.417. Second, Jeter stole 34 bases compared to 18 outs on caught stealings and GIDP; Mauer’s ratio is 8 to 27. And third, Jeter is a steady veteran on a team that had a lot of turmoil this season.
But then, Mauer had to do his bit to hold together a pitching staff that was in constant turmoil as well, plus the fact is that the Twins – with far less impressive offensive talent and a disastrous injury of their own to their phenomenal #2 starter – came back from a huge deficit to win their division and end with just one fewer win than the Yankees. It’s not accidental that the revival coincided with Mauer batting .452 in June. Mauer is also obviously more valuable with the glove, as a catcher with a cannon arm – as of late September the Win Shares method rates him behind only Pudge Rodriguez and Jason Kendall (and just ahead of Beltran) in terms of the most valuable defensive players in the game, and even if you don’t put much stock in defensive Win Shares, Mauer threw out almost 38% of opposing baserunners (third in the AL) and may have intimidated more than that, as only Rodriguez saw fewer thieves even try. And as for playing time, a catcher with 600 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at.
Catchers with Mauer’s mix of skills are a rare breed (there hasn’t really been a catcher like Mauer since Mickey Cochrane), and it’s rarer to get his mix of production from a catcher these days than to get Jeter’s from a shortstop. The top three AL candidates are close, but I give Mauer the narrowest of edges.
Honorable mention: Manny Ramirez, Travis Hafner, Justin Morneau, Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Carlos Guillen, Grady Sizemore, Johan Santana.
NL Cy Young
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Brandon Webb
3. Chris Carpenter
There’s a tendency to say that the NL award should go to a reliever: no NL starter won 17 games, only one (Roy Oswalt) had an ERA below 3.00, the league leader in innings was Bronson Arroyo, and the two dominant relievers (Billy Wagner and Trevor Hoffman) towered over the rest of the league’s closers in a year when most of the dominant relievers were in the AL. But then, neither Wagner nor Hoffman had the kind of mind-blowing season (sub-2.00 ERA, 80+ innings, 50+ saves) you expect from a Cy Young reliever.
Coming into the final week I assumed Webb would win the award, as he had more innings, a better ERA and a tougher ballpark to deal with than Chris Carpenter and Carlos Zambrano, but Webb and Carpenter both got lit up while Oswalt was firing bullets in an inspiring last-minute charge. Since Oswalt finished with the best ERA and a comparable record and innings total, I give him the nod.
Honorable mentions: Wagner, Hoffman, Zambrano, John Smoltz.
AL Cy Young
1. Johan Santana
[Insert vast gulf]
2. Roy Halladay
3. Jonathan Papelbon
Santana led or tied for the AL lead in wins, ERA, innings, and strikeouts, among other things, and missed by a hair (to Roy Halladay) the league lead in winning percentage. Papelbon was just utterly dominant; an 0.92 ERA deserves some special recognition, even when BJ Ryan and Francisco Rodriguez also put up mind-boggling numbers in relief and only pitched 4 or 5 more innings.
Interesting random fact: the best road ERAs in the AL were CC Sabathia and Barry Zito.
Honorable mentions: Francisco Rodriguez, BJ Ryan, Chien-Ming Wang.

Backing In

So the Astros’ loss – inflicted by John Smoltz, in a characteristic 3-1 offensive brownout – ends the defending NL champs’ season, backs the Cards into the playoffs amidst what is, at present, a 5-0 blanking by the Brewers, ends Barry Bonds’ season (by mooting a potential makeup game tomorrow) and perhaps ends Roger Clemens’ career. A sad spectacle all around.

Starting for the National League

If my math is correct, the National League career record for games started is 677, by Steve Carlton. Greg Maddux started number 673 today, notching his 333rd victory and reaching 15 wins for the 18th time.
Will Maddux return next year? Hard to say. As more than one reader has pointed out to me, I was premature in declaring Maddux done this summer after consecutive months of 1-4 with a 5.94 ERA, 1-4 with a 6.25 ERA, and 2-3 with a 5.21 ERA before reviving with the Dodgers (as an aside, one reason I was skeptical that Maddux would get better in LA was that he had actually pitched much better at Wrigley this year than on the road, so the “get to a better park” theory seemed strained).
Even if he doesn’t, you have to ask at this point a question I intend to address in more detail at a later date: whether Maddux is, in fact, the best pitcher in the National League’s history, surpassing – when you adjust for the context of his time, including levels of offense as well as the difference in pitcher workloads over time – the National League careers of such luminaries as Carlton, Christy Mathewson, Grover Alexander, Tom Seaver, Warren Spahn, Kid Nichols, John Clarkson, Bob Gibson, and Sandy Koufax.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Pedro done even longer:

Already ruled out of the playoffs because of a bad left leg, the three-time Cy Young Award winner will have right rotator cuff surgery next week and won’t resume throwing off a mound until June, Mets general manager Omar Minaya said Saturday.

Now, the truth comes out. The Pedro contract was a crucial step towards credibility for the Mets, and put a lot of extra fans in the seats in 2005, but it now looks like they will definitely not get their money’s worth on the field.

The Tides Recede

Soccer Dad has a great post on a subject I hadn’t followed at all – apparently the Mets’ long affiliation with the Norfolk (formerly Tidewater) Tides is coming to an end, as is the Yankees’ affiliation with the Columbus Clippers – the Tides will become an Orioles affiliate, the Clippers a Nationals affiliate, the Mets’ new AAA team will likely be the former Milwaukee franchise in New Orleans (the Zephyrs) and the Yankees will apparently take over the Scranton market, being abandoned by the Phillies’ affiliate . . . well, go read the whole thing. It’s not just the end of an era but the simultaneous end of several eras for different franchises.
Reading between the lines, Norfolk wasn’t happy with Omar Minaya’s use of the New York-Norfolk shuttle to expand his pitching staff at the expense of the AAA club.
I remember in 1981 during the strike, Channel 11 (then the Yankee station) showed the Clippers games, and they had this amazingly hokey theme song, the hokiness of which can only be partly captured with the lyrics:
Col-um-bus Clippers, our team is Number One!
Col-um-bus Clippers, our fans are having fun!

(Repeat ad nauseum – there must have been more but that’s the part I remember).

Card Star Crashing

I linked last fall to a Baseball Prospectus analysis of the biggest pennant races collapses of all time, ranked by the team’s statistical odds of making the postseason. As of September 19, 2006, the Cardinals were estimated by Coolstandings.com to have a 99.9% chance of making the postseason, which if they blow it would tie them with the 1995 Angels for the biggest choke ever.

Party Like It’s 1964

It remains too early to panic, but Cardinals and A’s fans are starting to get that sinking 1964 Phillies pheeling just about now; the A’s have lost 3 straight and, despite a magic number of 2 to KO the Angels, have 4 of their last six games against them (the other two against the Mariners) and all six on the road; after a 6-game losing streak, the Cards’ lead is down to 2.5 over the long-given-up-for-dead Astros and 3.5 over the Reds, although St. Louis has its final six games at home and four of them against the Brewers after two more against the West-leading Padres.