Category: Baseball 2006

Some Guys Have All The Luck

And some, like Nick the Stick Johnson, don’t. Given the angle of his collision with Austin Kearns today, I thought he had broken a collarbone or perhaps a cheekbone or something; I was surprised when the carted him off with his leg in a splint, and now it’s broken. The impact in 2006 is negligible, but in addition to being painful it’s discouraging nonetheless to a guy with a terrible injury history. Best of luck to Johnson in making it back in 2007; he really is a tremendous talent with the bat. My take on Johnson in April:

Nick Johnson is entering the “is that all there is” stage of his career, and I no longer expect sustained greatness, but it still would not surprise me to see him rip off one healthy year in the next year or two where he slugs .550 with a .450 OBP and drives in 110 runs.

Well, he got partway there this year – .292/.520/.428 with 46 doubles, 23 HR and 110 walks, resulting in 100 runs scored but just 77 RBI on the flailing Nationals – but I have a feeling we’ve just seen the best year he’s going to have.

Gut Check

We’ll see if Pedro is ready for the postseason, but ready or not, he’s Pedro; he’ll be the #1 starter. And I feel pretty solid right now about Glavine, El Duque and Maine, all things considered. But while (correct me if I’m wrong) there doesn’t seem to have been a formal announcement, it seems unlikely that the Mets are going with Maine instead of Steve Trachsel.
The Maine/Trachsel decision is a major test of what Willie Randolph and Omar Minaya are made of. Starting Trachsel, who is the longest-tenured Met and has been in the rotation all year, is the sentimental move, the “he’s one of my guys” move, the Joe Torre move. Starting Maine, the better pitcher, is the Casey Stengel move, the John McGraw, Earl Weaver, Connie Mack move. (In 1929, Mack sent his ace, Lefty Grove, to the bullpen because he thought Grove matched up poorly against the Cubs and started the aging Howard Ehmke instead).
Fact: if you look at Trachsel’s starts 3 at a time, he has just two, overlapping three-start stretches this season (August 2-13 and August 8-18) where he posted an ERA below 3.44 – while Maine’s ERA for the season is 3.42.
Bill James’ “Game Score” method provides a quick shorthand for how well a pitcher has pitched in a particular game – let’s look at the year’s game scores for Trachsel and Maine from best to worst:

Date P Opp. IP ER Game ERA Gscore
7.21.06 Maine vs. HOU 9 0 0.00 86
7.26.06 Maine vs. CHN 7 0 0.00 78
9.18.06 Trachsel vs. FLA 6 1/3 0 0.00 73
4.7.06 Trachsel vs. FLA 6 1 1.50 70
8.6.06 Maine vs. PHI 6 0 0.00 70
8.13.06 Trachsel At WSH 6 2/3 1 1.35 69
6.4.06 Trachsel vs. SF 7 1 1.29 69
5.17.06 Trachsel At STL 7 1 1.29 68
9.2.06 Maine At HOU 6 1/3 2 2.84 66
4.25.06 Trachsel At SF 6 1 1.50 65
8.18.06 Trachsel vs. COL 7 3 3.86 61
9.17.06 Maine At PIT 6 2 3.00 61
8.28.06 Maine vs. PHI 6 1/3 2 2.84 61
7.14.06 Trachsel At CHN 6 2 3.00 60
8.17.06 Maine At PHI 6 2 3.00 60
4.20.06 Trachsel At SD 6 2 3.00 59
8.8.06 Trachsel vs. SD 5 2/3 2 3.18 58
7.08.06a Maine vs. FLA 6 3 4.50 57
6.20.06 Trachsel vs. CIN 6 2 3.00 57
7.3.06 Maine vs. PIT 4 2/3 2 3.86 56
8.29.06 Trachsel At COL 6 3 4.50 56
7.1.06 Trachsel At NYA 6 2 3.00 56
7.6.06 Trachsel vs. PIT 6 1/3 3 4.26 55
8.12.06 Maine At WSH 5 1/3 4 6.75 54
5.29.06 Trachsel vs. ARI 6 4 6.00 52
8.2.06 Trachsel At FLA 5 2/3 3 4.76 51
5.2.06 Maine vs. WSH 5 1/3 4 6.75 51
5.5.06 Trachsel vs. ATL 6 4 6.00 50
9.8.06 Maine vs. LAD 5 2 3.60 50
5.11.06 Trachsel At PHI 4 2 4.50 49
6.15.06 Trachsel At PHI 6 4 6.00 48
4.15.06 Trachsel vs. MIL 5 4 7.20 45
6.25.06 Trachsel At TOR 5 4 7.20 44
6.9.06 Trachsel At ARI 5 1/3 3 5.06 41
7.19.06 Trachsel At CIN 3 1/3 3 8.10 40
9.4.06 Trachsel vs. ATL 4 1/3 3 6.23 40
9.10.06 Trachsel vs. LAD 2 2/3 4 13.50 36
8.22.06 Maine vs. STL 5 7 12.60 36
8.23.06 Trachsel vs. STL 5 6 10.80 35
5.23.06 Trachsel vs. PHI 5 6 10.80 34
4.30.06 Trachsel At ATL 3 2/3 6 14.73 25
7.24.06 Trachsel vs. CHN 4 2/3 8 15.43 23

You tell me – who’s more likely to throw a good or at least an acceptable start in the postseason? And isn’t that, not seniority or salary or sentiment, the only question Randolph and Minaya need to be asking?

Pay-Rod

For once, Mike Lupica is right on calling out Jason Giambi for having the gall to criticize anybody (in this case A-Rod). Then again, I didn’t realize A-Rod was now playing the race card (hasn’t he ever heard of Derek Jeter?). Face it, when people look at A-Rod, the only color they see is green; the man had few energetic detractors in Seattle, and he is hated today almost entirely because of the money he makes. Everything else that gets thrown at him is rationalization for that hatred. But that doesn’t make calling his detractors racists is at all justifiable.

You Never Can Tell

There are few things more frustrating and uncertain in the game than when a young pitcher – whether or not he appears to be talented – is suddenly going to “get it”. Witness the case of Cubs starter Rich Hill. Hill had a 9.13 ERA in 2005 and picked up where he left off (in fact, incredibly, he was even worse) in 2006; entering his start on August 1, his career record stood at 0-6, 9.32. Since then: 6-2, 2.23. And it’s been a complete turnaround in every aspect of his pitching line:

IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9
46.1 9.32 10.49 1.75 6.80 6.41
64.2 2.23 6.12 0.84 2.37 8.49

Everyone who saw that coming at that precise moment, raise your hands. Time will tell if he keeps this up.

The Hangover

Tonight’s Mets starting lineup:
A. Hernandez, SS
E. Chavez, CF
L. Milledge, LF
J. Franco, 3B
M. Tucker, 1B
C. Woodward, 2B
R. Ledee, RF
M. DiFelice, C
T. Glavine, P
This looks like a World War II lineup – the very young, the very old, and the lame.
UPDATE: That is, if you’re keeping score at home, a career .099 hitter leading off, a 21-year-old batting third, a 48-year-old man making his first start at third base in 24 years batting cleanup, a .208 hitter batting sixth, and three other guys who were basically picked off the scrap heap. Yet Anderson Hernandez homers, and the Mets at last check trail just 2-1.
Here is the box score from Julio Franco’s last start at 3B. Starting pitchers: Marty Bystrom and Scott Holman. Pete Rose played in the game, as did Rusty Staub and the late Bo Diaz. George Foster stole a base. It was the last major league appearance for Stan Bahnsen and Willie Montanez. Five players in tonight’s starting lineups hadn’t been born yet (Hernandez, Milledge, Miguel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and Hanley Ramirez), and Marlins manager Joe Girardi was still four years away from being drafted by the Cubs.
SECOND UPDATE: And the Mets win with that lineup, 3-2, thus driving that fork deeper into a Marlins team that has imploded over the past week or so and miraculously salvaging Tom Glavine’s 289th win.

Deja Delay

September 11, 1986: Mets lead the Phillies by 22 games with 23 to play, entering a 3-game set in Philly. Magic Number: 1 to clinch a tie, 2 to clinch outright. One win will lock it up. (Personally, I’m bummed because I’m on a religious retreat all weekend with no TV or radio). Mets get swept in Philadelphia and split two in St. Louis while the Phillies win two more against the Pirates, dropping the Mets’ lead to 18.
Yeah, this is like that. Of course, the first chance the Mets got to put the race to bed at home, they beat the Cubs and that was that.
Mets play at home tonight.

Insurance

ESPN reports:
The Atlanta Braves put third baseman Chipper Jones on the 15-day disabled list Thursday night so their insurance company will pay a portion of his $13.6 million salary.
+++

General manager John Schuerholz insisted the 1999 NL MVP could return early next week.
“He will not be out for the rest of the year,” Schuerholz said. “He’ll be eligible to return on Tuesday. If his side heals, we’ll be ready to go.”

I don’t know the details of the Braves’ policy on Chipper, but seems to me that if he’s not that seriously hurt and the Braves are admitting to DL-ing him just to collect insurance, the carrier may have grounds to refuse to pay.

Good News for Giants Fans

Armando Benitez done for the season. It would have been too good to be true to face teams with both Benitez and Braden Looper as their closers in the playoffs.
UPDATE: And more good, actual, genuine news: counting today’s 8 shutout innings against the Rockies, Matt Cain is now 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA since the All-Star Break. In 81.1 IP he’s allowed just 52 hits and 5 HR, walked 31 and struck out 83. A star is born.

Breakfast With The “Pennant” Race

What a wake up for Padre fans – the Pads and the Reds are on at 12:35 EDT today, which is 9:35 in the morning in San Diego.
No starting lineups yet but I’m guessing that Piazza, who caught last night, will not be catching.
UPDATE: He didn’t. Padres win, 4-2, Pads lead the Phillies by 2 games, and Trevor Hoffman gets his 474th save, 4 off the record. Hoffman will have an interesting Hall of Fame case – thus far, the pure closers to go on the ballot (i.e., mainly 1-inning pitchers, not heavy-workload aces like Fingers, Sutter, Wilhelm or Gossage or half-career starters like Eck) have had short careers (Henke) or not really been all that dominant for more than a year or two of their careers (Reardon, Lee Smith, Aguilera). And Mariano Rivera is sui generis because of his postseason accomplishments. Hoffman will test whether a guy who’s a genuinely outstanding (2.70 career ERA and almost 90% save conversion rate) closer over a long career can be taken seriously as a Hall of Famer despite never having thrown 100 innings or won 10 games in a season.

Youth Will Not Be Served

It really was not much of a surprise to see the Marlins’ defense come utterly unglued last night in the 11th inning of a game that – with the Padres winning and the Phillies handing the Braves another doubleheader sweep – they really needed to win. Like it or not, that’s what usually happens to teams with a lot of young position players. Florida isn’t done yet but the Marlins are now three games back and fourth in a five-team wild card race (I’m assuming the Astros are toast at 4.5 back), and while they still get to play the Phillies six times and the Reds three, they are done with the leader, San Diego, as well as with the Giants.
While we’re at it, let’s look at the remaining schedules of the five NL teams by two measurements – the average winning percentage of the teams they have left on their schedule (weighted by number of games) and the number of games remaining against the other four:

Team Avg W% Games vs 4
Padres .486 1
Phillies .466 6
Giants .487 0
Marlins .529 9
Reds .441 4

The biggest problem here for the other teams is that after today’s Padres-Reds game, the Pads have no more games left against the other contenders, and thus nobody can make them come back to the pack. The Marlins, with 4 games remaining against the Mets and 6 against the Phillies, have by far the hardest road, and last year’s victory for the Astros reminded us of the value of a soft September schedule in a multi-team wild card race. The Giants, oddly, are the only NL team that will not play any of the wild card contenders the rest of the way.

Hudson’s Decline

What ails Tim Hudson? Yesterday’s loss drops Hudson, once a premier pitcher, to 12-11 with a 4.95 ERA. Let’s start by updating a chart I did at the end of the 2004 season of the major components of Hudson’s game:

Year K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB/FB GDP/9 SB/9 SB%
1999 8.71 4.09 0.53 2.27 0.92 0.92 73.7
2000 7.52 3.65 1.07 2.02 0.71 1.07 88.9
2001 6.93 2.72 0.77 2.26 0.69 0.92 77.4
2002 5.74 2.34 0.72 2.03 1.32 0.19 38.5
2003 6.08 2.29 0.56 2.26 0.86 0.26 53.8
2004 4.91 2.10 0.38 2.53 1.10 0.38 66.7
2005 5.39 3.05 0.94 2.50 0.98 0.47 58.8
2006 5.81 3.24 1.08 2.24 0.81 0.90 83.3

I noted in 2004 that Hudson had been plagued by a declining strikeout rate but had coped by relentlessly improving every other facet of his game. While the relatively low K rate compared to his early years may still signal a problem, Hudson has arrested that decline; the problem now is that all of his coping mechanisms have eroded or entirely unravelled – his remarkable control, his high groundball rate and low HR rate, his ability to strangle the running game and thus set up the double play. Of course, I strongly suspect that the hand of a declining Atlanta defense is at work in several of these. (As to balls in play, the Hardball Times notes that Hudson gets outs on 70% of balls in play, about average, and gives Hudson a fielding independent ERA of 4.43 or 4.14 (depending if you use the FIP or xFIP metric – the latter is more favorable because it assumes that luck is responsible for the fact that Hudson allows the highest percentage of home runs per fly ball of any pitcher in the National League)).
Another trouble sign I noted in 2004 was Hudson’s difficulty with lefthanded hitters, who batted .298/.422/.352 against Hudson in 2004; it’s only gotten worse, as this year, they’re hitting .283/.505/.353.
A better defense and the confidence to throw more strikes might help Hudson, although if his problems with the running game can be ascribed to Brian McCann, he’s stuck; McCann is the National League’s best catcher and young, so he’s not going anywhere. His HR rate probably will go down a bit on its own, but his troubles with lefthanded hitters may require him to take a new approach, something the intelligent and adaptable Hudson has shown the ability to do in the past. I expect Hudson to rebound a bit next year – there’s nothing in his record that signals an imminent collapse to Russ Ortiz country – but his days as an elite pitcher are most likely behind him.

Still Hurting

Going in the opposite direction from the Red Sox, the A’s have yet again rebounded from a slow start, going 59-31 (.656, a 106-win pace) since falling to 23-29 on May 30. Here’s their batting and pitching numbers since then.
As you can see, the A’s are relying on two things: balance and the Big Hurt. On the pitching side, four starters (Zito, Haren, Blanton and Loaiza) have started 75 of their 90 games, with Kirk Saarloos taking 9 others; none of the five has an ERA below 3.89 or above 4.39 in that period, although several A’s relievers have been lights-out. Hitting-wise, there are multiple people just hitting well enough to keep the offense going; big guns Eric Chavez and Nick Swisher are batting .222 and .225, respectively, with a combined 25 homers, but have drawn enough walks (105) to avoid becoming offensive black holes. Jason Kendall’s hit well and rarely come out of the lineup, leading the team in hits and runs. And Jay Payton has stepped up – Payton, the poor man’s Garret Anderson, has always had good speed and defense, middling power, but no walks or steals, so he can be valuable if and only if he hits for a good average. Over the past 3 1/2 months he’s batting .321, the best baseball of his career.
But the overall team otherwise doesn’t look very impressive until you add vintage, rejuvenated Frank Thomas, batting .317/.625/.421 with 25 HR and 71 RBI in 76 games. I was high on Thomas’ productivity back in April, but I don’t think anyone expected this. The downside is that Oakland will enter October very much dependent upon keeping Thomas healthy (and could have to play without him if the A’s make the Series).

The Fallen Sky

At last check, the Red Sox trail the Royals by 6 in the 12th inning. This team will be lucky to win 90 games. It’s 2000 & 2001 all over again.
UPDATE: The Sawx stood 48-28 (.632, a 102-win pace) after sweeping the Mets in late June. With tonight’s loss they are now 27-39 (.409, a 96-loss pace) since.
SECOND UPDATE: Here’s Boston’s hitting and pitching stats over that stretch. The offense isn’t terrible, but there’s not a ton of help there for Ortiz and Manny. Pitching-wise, most everyone has been poor.

Upside Down Rotation

Since June 1, Mets starters are 40-24 (.625); Mets relievers are 14-8 (.636). The funny thing is that the record of the starters is propped up almost entirely by two guys you would not have expected (John Maine and Dave Williams are a combined 8-2 with a 3.18 ERA) and two who haven’t even pitched well in that period (Steve Trachsel and Mike Pelfrey are 14-3 with a 5.06 ERA). The rest of the staff is 18-19, including a 15-14 record and 5.06 ERA for Pedro, Glavine and El Duque.

No Quarter

Nope, not feeling sorry for the Braves today. Not one tiny little bit.
UPDATE: I’m not trusting Oliver Perez yet, either. Brilliant as he was today, he’s still playing with gasoline and matches out there. Still, you have to love throwing Perez and Dave Williams out there and sweeping a doubleheader (with neither game being particularly close).
Then again, even Soler had a 3.32 ERA in his starts against NL opponents.

No Derby Downer

Mike Sheets looks at recent participants in the Home Run Derby and doesn’t find a dramatic second-half dropoff to substantiate concerns over David Wright and (in 2005) Bobby Abreu. Even the effect he does find is probably partly explained by the tendency of All-Stars to be people who played at or above their expected level in the first half, and thus inherently more likely than average to decline in the second half.

Beltran’s Knee

The Mets will be very fortunate if tonight’s victory isn’t very, very costly – Carlos Beltran caught his spikes in the chain links in Minute Maid Field’s center field fence and turned his left knee the wrong way coming down from a spectacular game-saving catch of a drive off Lance Berkman’s bat with two on and one out up 4-2 in the ninth. Beltran limped off the field, and there’s no word just yet on the status of the knee.

Capuano

Another tough loss tonight for Brewer lefty Chris Capuano, dropping his record to 11-9. With the fate of Ben Sheets perennially uncertain, Capuano has very quietly had himself a fine season and snuck up to the brink of being a credible ace in his own right. I noticed the other day in USAToday that Capuano leads the majors in “Quality Starts” (e.g., 6 IP or more, 3 ER or less – he tossed his 23d in 29 starts tonight. His K/BB ratio has hopped up rapidly from OK (176-91) to great (160-35) in a single season, and his pickoff move is approaching legendary status – just 1 steal in 3 attempts against him this season, 2 in 11 attempts last year. Capuano’s something of a fly ball pitcher and still gopher-prone (55 homers and 95 doubles allowed in two years, although the latter may be partly the Brewers’ outfield), but if he can cut the homers even a little he stands to become a legitimate #1 starter.

Tough Times

Jon Lester has non-Hodkins Lymphoma, which may sound – in Larry David’s words – like “the good Hodkins” but it’s still plenty scary for a 22-year-old. Let’s hope he makes a full recovery. David Ortiz is still being tested.
Brad Radke has a stress fracture in his shoulder and may be done for the year.
David Wells is finally throwing in the towel after this season.

Please, Sir, I Don’t Want Some More

Given his youth and talent, I’m hardly ready to declare the Oliver Perez Experiment a failure, but it is pretty clear after two starts that no miraculous change-of-scenery metamorphosis is going to make him into a pitcher the Mets can use in the postseason. (Which is not to question them using him right now out of necessity). Wait ’til next year.

Rays of Hope

With BJ Upton and Delmon Young finally in the lineup, the Devil Rays should start getting a look at the building blocks they need for a contending team. Personally, these guys are a big reason why I think they should set a minimum age (say, 28) to be a free agent, rather than incentivize excitement-starved teams like the Rays to keep their green but talented young prospects at AAA to avoid accruing service time.
Fun fact about Upton: his real name is Melvin Emanuel Upton. Upton had a disappointing year with the bat at AAA, though I suspect a lot of that was mental pressure and frustration from being trapped in AAA two seasons after getting an extended big-league cup of coffee. I see nothing wrong with Upton that some maturity and job security can’t fix.
As for Young, he batted .316 with 22 doubles and 22 steals as a 20-year-old at AAA Durham in a half-season’s work, all signs of a great future power-speed guy. But he hit just 8 homers, which means he’s probably not a big HR threat just yet (though you never know what sort of hot streak he might run off in September). His 65/15 K/BB ratio is also not a great sign, but again he’s young.

Cursed Once Again!

Let’s see – David Ortiz out indefinitely with heart trouble, Coco Crisp sidelined with a bum shoulder, Jon Lester may have cancer . . . At this point, it would not surprise me to see a plague of locusts and a river of blood at Fenway. Dr. Manhattan asked recently if a franchise has ever had a worse month, all things considered – the Mets in August 1991 come to mind, the 1899 Spiders the month their stadium burned down, and the White Sox in September 1920 probably take the cake, but this is up there.
But hey, at least Jeff Reardon got off.

Instability

They said on the Mets broadcast the other night that the Mets – now with the best record in baseball – have used 47 players this year. I only count 45 but I may have missed someone along the way – 20 non pitchers, 25 pitchers including 13 different starters. The thing is, that much turnover is usually the sign of serious problems – the 1962 Mets, for example, used 45 players, including 14 different starters (the breakdown was 28 position players and 17 pitchers). Somehow, the Mets have instead used all that turnover as a way to keep regenerating on the fly, dumping people like Matsui and Lima and surviving a variety of injuries.
You think the people who booed Carlos Beltran are ashamed of themselves yet?
On another story, a reader recently asked what I thought of the Coors Field humidor. Well, it hasn’t exactly been in evidence in this series, but scoring is down at Coors – it’s played more like a traditional hitters’ park of late rather than a separate planet (608 runs scored in Rockie home games this year vs. 584 on the road, a modest 4.1% increase). Personally, to me, anything that does that is good. From a purist’s perspective, Coors itself (and indeed, any high-altitude baseball) is an abomination that distorts the very movement of the ball. Tampering with the game’s equipment to counteract that and restore the balance of power between batter and pitcher can only be a good thing.

Off the Market

Yet another big-time pitcher will be staying put, as the Astros lock up Roy Oswalt for 5 years and $73 million. It’s a good deal for Houston – Oswalt’s expensive, and being a pitcher he’s a serious injury risk, but he’s been mostly healthy and you gotta pay somebody to pitch, so he’s as good a bet as you will find.
I’ll get to this another day, but given the current state of the free agent market, and particularly if the White Sox pick up Mark Buehrle’s option, Barry Zito is going to become a very rich man this offseason.

Going Down, Down, Down, Down Part V

Resuming, with Part 5, my look at young or still-establishing-themselves players whose stock has fallen dramatically in 2006 and/or 2005 – the NL Central. (Parts I, II, III & IV here, here, here, and here, respectively)
Cardinals
The Cards actually don’t have anyone who fits the bill, as this is a veteran team and the few young players are rookies. Randy Flores, maybe, as he had finally put together a solid big league season last year, but Flores is a 31-year-old middle reliever who never had much of a ceiling anyway.
Astros
Jason Lane: Lane, a free-swinging power threat, got a full shot in 2005 at age 28 and responded by doing what free-swinging power hitters do: 34 doubles, 26 HR, a .499 slugging % but only a .316 OBP. He chipped in 3 HR and 8 RBI in the Astros’ postseason run, including a 4th inning homer in the dramatic 14-inning Game 3 of the World Series. Lane held the right field job entering this season, but ended up getting demoted back to the minors after batting just .207 in 246 at bats, leaving him fighting to reclaim his status as a regular.
Brandon Backe: Backe was nothing spectacular in 2005, but he was a young pitcher making progress, and he pitched some tremendous games in the postseason. This year he managed just 8 starts before hurting his elbow and now may face Tommy John surgery.
Ezequiel Astacio: The wages of postseason failure – Astacio had a solid (for a rookie) 66/25 K/BB ratio in 81 IP last year, giving hope that he could someday be an effective starter, once he cut down on that atrocious HR rate (2.6 per 9 IP). But Astacio, the last man in the Houston bullpen, melted down in the 14th inning of Game 3 of the Series after surrendering Geoff Blum’s home run, and he wasn’t the same pitcher this year in brief action, walking 6 in 5.2 IP. He’s been better at AAA Round Rock, but still with a 4.76 ERA. Astacio is now a ways from contributing again at the major league level.
(By the way, although he’s not a youth, this may be a useful point at which to look at Brad Lidge’s unraveling in 2006 in light of my post last year on closers who blow the big one in the postseason).
Brewers
JJ Hardy: Hardy struggled as much as an everyday player could possibly struggle in the first half in 2005, batting .187/.267/.293, but rebounded 180 degrees to bat .308/.503/.363 in the second half. This year, at age 23, Hardy was on a lot of lists of potential breakouts, as a guy expected to team with Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks to anchor the Milwaukee infield for years to come, and he hit OK in April (.281/.449/.323). Instead, Hardy struggled badly in May, dropping his season numbers to .242/.398/.295 before going down for the season with ankle surgery.
(Weeks may also belong here – he performed quite well with the bat this season before his own season-ending injury, but his own glovework has been so bad, combined with a career year by Bill Hall, that the Brewers may end up sending Weeks to the outfield, making him much less valuable).
Cubs
Mark Prior: With more than 100 big league starts and an 18-win season three years ago, Prior isn’t exactly a guy trying to make it big, but he is a guy who is 25 and still looking to show some consistency. Until 2006, he had generally been healthy more tha hurt and effective even when ailing, but this year he officially crossed over into “we can only hop” status with a 7.21 ERA in 9 starts. (Kerry Wood is another story, but Wood at age 29 isn’t going to get better – the Cubs are about to bow to the inevitable and convert him permanently to the bullpen).
Ronny Cedeno: Cedeno’s just 23 and batted .300 in a very brief trial last year (80 at bats), and had projected as a guy who might hit enough (Baseball Prospectus projection: .273/.387/.320) to hold a SS job and eventually develop into an offensive contributor. Cedeno’s 2006 has been a total wipeout: .244/.329/.269, a deplorable 81/13 K/BB ratio, caught stealing in half his attempts, and a lower batting average each month (.308, .276, .234, .200, .185). You have to wonder about keeping a guy like that in the lineup.
Jerome Williams: In chaos there is opportunity, and precisely that opportunity presented itself to the onetime Giants prospect, still just 24, as the Cubs’ rotation unraveled and Williams, who posted a 3.91 ERA last year in 106 innings for the Cubs, had the chance to prove himself. Granted, his peripheral numbers weren’t all that impressive (59/45 K/BB ratio), but the chance was there. Instead, a 7.30 ERA and 11 walks in 12.1 IP got him an early ticket to Iowa, where he has been drilled to the tune of 131 hits in 98.1 IP while striking out just 45 minor leaguers.
Reds
Gary Majewski: Yes, this man was on Team USA in the World Baseball Classic after posting a 2.93 ERA in 79 games as a 25-year-old for the Nationals. Of course, the ballpark helped that, but it was still a good start. Majewski struggled with his command back in DC (25 BB in 55.1 IP) and got sent to Cinci in the Felipe Lopez multi-player deal, and then the wheels came off, with a 12.54 ERA in 11 appearances before Majewski admitted that his shoulder had been bothering him since the WBC and the Reds put him on the DL (and, hopefully, told him to get a haircut).
Brandon Claussen: 2005: 121/57 K/BB ratio in 166.2 IP, a 4.21 ERA in 29 starts, and a lot of hope for the future. 2006: A 6.19 ERA and season-ending shoulder surgery.
Pirates
Zach Duke: Duke may yet be a star, but on the way to last year’s 1.81 ERA, he struck out 6.17 men per 9 and allowed just 0.3 HR/9 (the latter being an unsustainable rate for a major league starter in the 21st century). The HR rate has gone to normal (0.7) while the K rate has dropped alarmingly (4.89), and the results have been ugly at times, including 200 hits allowed in just 165.2 IP. Unless Duke can get his strikeout rate up he will never be more than a mediocre pitcher.
Paul Maholm: Maholm is the same story as Duke – great ERA last year, mediocre one this year, and a low K rate that spells a low ceiling. Plus Maholm walks way too many batters.
Chris Duffy: Duffy’s .341 average last year in 126 at bats now looks like a Tike Redman-ish fluke, as he has batted .217/.283/.273 this season in 185 at bats.
Ryan Doumit: Hamstring injuries have limited Doumit to just 57 at bats this year after a respectable rookie campaign; Ronny Paulino took his job while he was away and has hit .312, and Doumit may now face a battle to get playing time.
Nate McLouth: Yet another Buc with the same old story – decent but unspectacular as a 2005 rookie, helpless and hurt in 2006.

Royal Numbers

It’s a good thing for Royals 3B Mark Teahen that he is having such a monster year since returning from the minors in early June, batting .333/.599/.411 and averaging 118 Runs, 112 RBI, 40 2B, 11 3B, 29 HR, 72 BB and 15 Sb per 162 games after struggling mightily since the beginning of 2005, because Royals 3B prospect Alex Gordon is having a tremendous year at AA Witchita in the Texas League, batting .318/.578/.422 and averaging 129 Runs, 108 RBI, 44 2B, 33 HR, 85 BB and 26 SB per 162 games. Which, even if you assume that Gordon still needs a bit of seasoning, puts the Royals in the unusual (for them) position of an embarrassment of riches at one position, and needing to decide which of them moves, and to where, or whether to trade one of them.