(Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website)
THE END OF AN ERA
As this website closes its �doors,� it�s only fitting to contemplate the end of another era . . .
In 1996, at the tail end of a dismal season that followed five dismal seasons before that one, the Mets hired Bobby Valentine as manager. The team he inherited had some talented players in their primes � Todd Hundley was then 27, Jeff Kent 28, Bernard Gilkey 29, Mark Clark 28, Bobby Jones 26 � as well as a few promising youngsters � Edgardo Alfonzo was 22, Carl Everett 25, Butch Huskey 24. But it was not a good team, and didn�t look likely to become one; Hundley was the closest thing to a major star on the team, and Kent was dealt to Cleveland for Carlos Baerga, who claimed to be a year younger but turned out to be nearly finished. For Valentine�s part, his record didn�t inspire confidence � his tenure in Texas showed no signs of a superior grasp of the game�s big-picture strategies, and he�d had an unfortunate tendency to get locked into petty battles with players.
Category: Baseball Columns
ICHIRO THE THROWBACK
Originally posted 5/2/01 on the Boston Sports Guy website
Through Tuesday’s action, Ichiro Suzuki was on a pace to hit 212 singles, which would break the major league record of 206 set by Wee Willie Keeler in 1898 and shatter the AL record of 185 set by Wade Boggs in 1985. Yeah, it’s early to be doing paces (Kazu Sasaki isn’t going to save 84 games), but we are getting a good look now at what kind of player Ichiro is. Like it or not, the answer is: a throwback.
Opening Month Notebook 2001
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
It’s early yet, even if we remind ourselves that the Mets have faced the Braves six times, the Yankees-Royals season series is over already and new pages have already been added to the Sox-Yanks rivalry. What�s new this April? A few questions and answers.
But first… think like a manager! Here�s a strategy quiz based on an actual game situation in April 1999. The answer (well, at least what actually happened) appears at the bottom of this page:
1. Bottom of the third, Orioles up 2-0, one out, Kevin Appier on the mound for KC, Jeff Conine at the plate, Harold Baines on first base, Albert Belle on third, what does Ray Miller do?
a) Pinch hit for Conine with a lefthanded hitter
b) Let Conine hit and try to drive in the runs
c) Tell Conine to take one for the team so Willis Otanez can hit with the bases loaded
d) Squeeze play
e) Hit and run to stay out of the double play
f) Double steal
g) Put in a pinch runner for the 40-year old Baines, who had bad hamstrings and was slow when he was 21
Now… back to our April stories:
Clemente and Musial
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
Before the regular season really hits its stride, let’s take one more trip in the way-back machine. Now, the All-Century Team, while an interesting debate at the time, was something I had not planned on going back to except as one illustration of how the all-time greats are viewed by the fans. But last week, Jon Saraceno of USA Today decided used the Opening Day festivities in Puerto Rico as an excuse to resuscitate an obnoxious and unnecessary charge against the selection of that team: that it was some sort of injustice, or worse yet prejudice, that resulted in Roberto Clemente being left off the team.
Saraceno doesn’t just argue that Clemente should have been given a special place on the team as a symbol of his pioneer/icon status, which is a defensible point depending on what you think the purpose of the team was. Certainly he is justly revered by a whole generation of Latin American ballplayers. No, Saraceno wants to show that Clemente was robbed: “Clemente belonged on that team. On merit.”
This argument is made (by noted baseball historians such as Spike Lee and impartial figures such as Roberto Clemente Jr.) to advance a larger point – whether you agree with it or not – that baseball has not given fair treatment to its Latin American stars and fans (Luis Clemente has a specific list of demands in mind when he touts this claim). So it’s worth examining the facts rather than taking them for granted, and the facts show that Clemente, great as he was, was absolutely not slighted by finishing tenth in the All-Century outfield balloting and being left off the team in favor of Stan Musial.
2001 Preview
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
I originally planned on a more elaborate preseason spread, with projected records and league leaders, but work intervened and this column doesn�t pay the rent. Here are the standings as I see them:
NL EAST
1. Braves
2. Mets
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Expos
The Mets and Braves might not be helped by the unbalanced schedule; the Mets were just 27-23 last season against the NL East, but 34-16 against the Central; the Braves were 27-24 last season against their divisional rivals but 32-13 against the West. In fact, the Marlins had the best record in intra-division play (28-22).
If you�re wondering, the teams with the best records within their divisions were: Marlins (.560), Cardinals (.597), Dodgers (.588), Blue Jays (.571), White Sox (.592), and A�s (.579). Teams that overachieved against their division rivals: Royals, Orioles, Phillies, Astros. Underachievers: Yankees (.510), Red Sox (.469), Indians (.412, worst in the Central Division and one of the worst home-division records in baseball), Mariners, Cubs (.339 against a weak division), Giants and Rockies. Take all that for whatever it�s worth.
Anyway, the Braves, like the Yankees, have seen their well-balanced juggernaut unravel and are increasingly dependent on a few superstars and veteran starting pitching — still a tough mix to beat. With injuries attacking their rotation and catching, a desperate situation at first base and potentially bad outfield corners (although Brian Jordan may rebound), the Braves are ripe for pickin�. But I don�t see it happening.
One piece of good news on the Mets: they plan to use Benny Agbayani in the leadoff spot more often than not. Bobby V can do some strange things, but he deserves credit for not just going with the knee-jerk move of leading off the small, speedy Timo all the time and instead picking a 225-pound home run hitter to lead off because he gets on base.
Crank’s Top Twenty – 2001
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
I�m starting what will hopefully be an annual feature here: my preseason ranking of the twenty best players to have in 2001. I�m not looking long-term; these are the guys to have on your team this year. I�m looking at the stats and past performance only for what they say about this sesason�s performance. And this isn�t a rotisserie exercise, otherwise Mariano Rivera would be on the list. Here are the top twenty players that any major league GM should and would want:
1. PEDRO MARTINEZ
Durability is a big part of what makes you the best in the business, so when you compare Pedro to the best ever in their primes, Lefty Grove or Walter Johnson might get the nod overall. But if I had to take one pitcher to win a single game for me — out of anyone, ever — I�d take Pedro Martinez, right now, today. That has to be worth a lot. As I pointed out in my AL MVP column, Pedro�s impact is far deeper than any everyday player, in the neighborhood of 40-50 runs a year compared to the next best AL starter (even if he only starts about 30 games). If you don�t think Pedro�s the best player in baseball, you must have a very dim view of the value of pitching.
2. ALEX RODRIGUEZ
He showed real improvement in plate discipline last season, although I think his capacity for improvement has probably peaked at age 25; not everyone keeps getting better in their late 20s, and plenty of great players had their best year by 25. His defense may be overextended trying to cover ground between rest-home candidates Randy Velarde and Ken Caminiti. His base-stealing days are probably behind him. A-Rod is a smart guy and well-liked by teammates in Seattle; if he wants to stay that way he should leave the whining to sportswriters and the Jeter-bashing to analysts.
3. VLADIMIR GUERRERO
Slugged .664 last season and cut his errors in half, and he�s just 25 … not the most patient hitter, but has time to grow in that department and does everything else well. Needs to learn that baseball has things called a �pennant race� and a �postseason� before he gets too set in his ways … the three most-similar players through age 24: Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio, Hank Aaron.
Fixing Baseball’s Economic Problems
It�s hard to imagine that anyone in their right minds enjoys writing � or reading � about the economics of baseball. Frankly, even though it can be fun to poke some humor at the big numbers, I don�t give two hoots whether Alex Rodriguez makes $252 million or $252 a month. Nor do I care whether George Steinbrenner makes more money from his baseball team than Jeffrey Loria and David Glass put together. And, I suspect, neither do you. The game on the field � and, for that matter, the financial disputes off it � would be exactly the same if you took every dollar figure in baseball and cut it by 95%.
Nonetheless, it seems you can�t scan the newspapers for a single day without seeing dollar signs, salary disputes and sky-is-falling warnings about the game�s fiscal health. Reporters report this stuff and columnists write about it because (1) they need something to talk about; (2) their sources are obsessed with this issue, which is pretty much the same reason why political reporters wind up wasting so much space on polls instead of ideas � you tend to assume that whatever matters to the people you spend all day with must be important to just everyone; and (3) journalists generally tend to be armchair socialists who love to rail against economic inequality.
All of this can have a rather corrosive effect on any fan�s attempt to just enjoy the competition on the field; we would all be better off if more journalists remembered former Chief Justice Earl Warren�s dictum that �I always turn to the sports pages first, which records people’s accomplishments. The front page has nothing but man’s failures.�
Nonetheless, economic issues DO affect the game on the field; increasingly, they have affected the way we look at the game. It�s worth taking a closer examination at some of the ideas being mooted about by baseball�s powers-that-be to see if the cures are likely to work � or are as bad as or worse than the disease. I profess no great expertise in baseball finance, and unlike professional sportswriters I don�t feel compelled to pretend otherwise, so I�ll mostly stick to generalities here. If you get the big picture right � fixing the incentive structure, that is � the details can usually be worked out anyway.
REMEMBERING EDDIE MATHEWS
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
Eddie Mathews died last week. Although it wasn’t quite ignored by the media, Mathews’ passing was given only a cursory writeup in many corners and widely overshadowed by the spectacular death of Dale Earnhardt. Sports Illustrated ran only a brief note on how Mathews was the magazine’s first-ever cover picture, in 1954. The New York Times buried a small obituary for Mathews under a much longer one for “sex expert” William Masters. ESPN.com couldn’t even find space on its baseball page for a decent tribute, leaving it to the indecipherable Ralph Wiley to give him a decent sendoff. CBS Sportsline did a better job with this “Behind the Numbers” profile and career retrospective.
But Mathews deserved better. In 130 years of organized major league baseball, thousands of men have played Mathews’ position, and only one – Mike Schmidt – played it better. That’s more than you could say about Joe DiMaggio, or Roberto Clemente, or Sandy Koufax, or Whitey Ford. Mathews was one of baseball’s giants, only the second third baseman (after Frank “Home Run” Baker) who could have been considered one of the game’s superstars. It still astonishes me that it took Mathews five tries to get elected to the Hall of Fame.
I’ve been busy this week, so I don’t have the time here either to do Mathews justice. But it’s fitting to compare him to some of the other, more prominent contenders for the title of “second greatest third baseman of all time.” (Schmidt is regarded now, by acclamation, as the best at the position, and since I have no quarrel with that assessment I’ll leave him out of the discussion). I?ll stick to the most famous ones, although I feel comfortable as well that Mathews was a greater player than Baker, Jimmy Collins, or John McGraw.
2001 Red Sox Preview Part II
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
Last week we looked at the offense; this week we’ll look at the pitching staff. There should be 11 or 12 roster spots open. Let’s assume 12 (with someone starting off on the DL) and take a look:
#1 STARTING PITCHER (Ace Di Tutti Aces)
–San Pedro de Fenway (age = 29)
–20-6, 2.18 ERA, 218.2 IP, 149 H, 40 BB, 288 K, 0.86 WHIP (baserunners/IP).
–Only 30 starts, though.
Pedro should be coming into camp ready to go, having stayed in good shape with daily walks on the water near his home in the Dominican Republic . . . this man, like the key Sox hitters, needs help; he�s been carrying more stiffs and freeloaders than Thidwick the Big-Hearted Moose.
2001 Red Sox Preview Part I
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
Pitchers and catchers … pitchers and catchers … pitchers and catchers …
It?s time to start preparing for 2001. I?ll start by looking ahead to the 101st edition of the Boston Red Sox, the 90th season at Fenway Park, and the Sox? 83rd season in pursuit of their sixth … well, you know.
Introductory note: For each player with significant major league exposure in the past three seasons, I will run an ?established performance level.? EPL is a very simple way of combining the past three seasons into a weighted average that gives the past season greatest weight. For example, Manny Ramirez smacked 45, 44 and 38 homers the last 3 years, so his EPL is ((38 x 3) + (44 x 2) + (45))/6 = 41 (rounded off). In other words, Manny enters this season as an established 41-homer guy. Pretty simple.
I prefer to look at EPL rather than the “projected stats” from outfits like STATS Inc. or the Baseball Prospectus, since an EPL is a historical fact while projections sometimes fool you into thinking that they are scientific. The events most likely to occur in the future can be predicted, after all; the actual future is always unknown. Also, the BP projections in particular tend to assume that young players won?t have an adjustment period entering the majors, and I was stupid enough to rely on those projections in drafting Eric Chavez for my rotisserie team in 1999 and Matt LeCroy in 2000. Keep tinkering, guys.
For Part One of this preview — the offense — I?ll run age, batting/slugging/on base percentage for each hitter, plus whatever else fits the particular player. (I’m only running totals for a few players because for some of these guys this includes seasons, like Varitek?s 1998, when they didn?t play regularly. In those cases the low G/AB totals should indicate that the player’s experience is limited).
IN DEFENSE OF THE BANDWAGON
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
There are few phrases that enrage dedicated sports fans faster than “bandwagon fans.” Nearly all of us have faced the appalling spectacle of watching our favorite team go down in flames in a tight, crucial game, only to be taunted by some blowhard who couldn’t have named two players on the winning team two years ago. Remember all those people with the Michael Jordan jerseys? How many of them do you think could pick Elton Brand and Ron Mercer out of a police lineup? Hey, where’d all the Rams fans go?
Here in the Big Apple, we have long held a reputation as the bandwagon capital of the world. Never having been to LA, I will have to accept that as true, because we certainly have the evidence. How many “Yankee fans” have ever heard of Oscar Azocar, Alvaro Espinoza, or Dave LaPoint? When I was in grammar school I was the only Mets fan in my class. I can remember trading baseball cards – in those days you could do this unsupervised in a schoolyard without calling your broker and checking the price of Ken Griffey on the CNBC ticker – and discovering that you could get an NL All-Star and half the Mets roster for one Yankee. When I was in high school (1985-89), strangely enough, there were plenty of Mets fans. Where’d they come from?
The New Strike Zone
(Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website)
One of the hottest topics coming into this baseball season is what the new strike zone will mean. Word has it that the powers that be (i.e., Sandy Alderson) want the umps to enforce a strike zone that is much higher � extending all the way to the letters on the batter�s uniform � but also narrower, extending only so far as the edges of home plate. In other words, it’s the strike zone in the rulebook, rather than one shaped like Eric Gregg. Peter Gammons reports that, at least for now, the umps are actually taking this seriously.
Personally I�ll believe this when I see it. We�ve heard about new strike zones before, and they tend to drift downward and outward after a little while. The last really big new-strike-zone initiative, in 1988, was never formally repealed but drifted gradually into disuse.
This much is certain: at least at the start of the season, the zone will be different. And the effect on the game of baseball will be dramatic. The strike zone is baseball�s central battlefield; control of the strike zone is to baseball what control of the line of scrimmage is to football, what control of the boards is to basketball. With enough talent you can lose that battle and still win the war, but you are swimming upstream something fierce.
Link From The Prospectus
My Hall of Fame column mentioning Dave Parker and Lou Whitaker (now here) got a link from the Baseball Prospectus.
Random Notes Column
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
This week: a series of random thoughts on recent events; the “notes” in Baseball Weekly contained a number of gems recently, and the trade wires were hot:
THE WELLS TRADE
I was appalled at the idea that the Mets would trade Glendon Rusch (let alone a package with Rusch in it) for David Wells. Wells’ statistical profile (consistent workload, great control record and K/BB ratio) suggests a guy who puts little stress on his arm and will be around awhile, but the reality is that a guy his age (38) who’s that out of shape is not a good bet to last much longer, particularly given how many hits he gave up and how badly he flamed out in the second half. It’s an arguable point who was the better pitcher last year – Rusch had awful run support, while Wells pitched with lots of big leads, and while Rusch had a better ERA that was in an easier park and league – but Rusch is clearly a better bet for 2001. Never mind that Rusch is 13 years younger and makes a fraction of Wells’ salary.
This is mostly a gut feeling – although Rusch’s great K/BB ratio (157 to 44) backs it up – but he seems primed for a breakthrough season in ’01. Rusch struggled after a hot start last year, but he appeared to be learning as the season went on, trying out new approaches to left-handed hitters in particular, and in the postseason he was deadly, repeatedly getting out of man-on-third-less-than-two-out jams he was brought into. His development reminded me of David Cone in 1987; I can still remember Cone, a rookie the Mets got from Kansas City for not much more than they gave up for Rusch, using his curveball to strike out Dale Murphy in one jam in April of that year and then strike out Jack Clark with the bases loaded in a key game later that week. The next year Cone was 20-3 with a 2.22 ERA.
The White Sox, though, had different needs than the Mets; they have a better offense but no Al Leiter. Mike Sirotka is a good pitcher, maybe better than Wells and certainly younger and cheaper, but he’s injury-prone and not the workhouse of Wells’ caliber; with a staff in shambles and no postseason experience, someone like Wells looks a whole lot better. The White Sox needed a rotation anchor, and Wells can certainly provide ballast. Plus, they�ll love Da Boomer in Chicago.
The Jays, of course, get rid of a whining headache (Wells can be a pain when he�s unhappy) and a fat salary and bring in a pitcher who�s 8 years younger. A good deal all around.
Note: Another team that could have used Wells or Pat Hentgen or Kevin Appier (neither of whom I�m all that enthused about for their new teams) is the Phillies. Philadelphia has a number of talented young pitchers (Bruce Chen, Randy Wolf) but nobody able to soak up 230 innings and keep on ticking.
Hall of Fame: Blyleven, Morris, Kaat, John, Tiant
My look at the Hall of Fame concludes this week with the starting pitchers. The burning questions: what matters more, brilliance or longetivity? Getting guys out or winning?
The two most-touted starting pitcher candidates on this year�s ballot are Bert Blyleven and Jack Morris. Personally, I came into this process having touted Blyleven, Morris and Jim Rice for the Hall, but each of their cases seemed weaker on closer inspection than I thought, while the cases for Luis Tiant and Ron Guidry seemed stronger. All four are close calls.
The ironic thing about Blyleven and Morris is that their cases rest on almost diametrically opposed arguments. Blyleven often had outstanding ERAs and mediocre records; Morris often had outstanding records and mediocre ERAs. Blyleven supporters point to his great career totals and ignore the early-70s AL he pitched in, when lots of others put up similar numbers; Morris backers point to his superiority to his contemporaries and ignore the unimpressive way his numbers stack up to the Hall�s usual standards. Blyleven never pitched a really memorable masterpiece in the postseason, but his postseason records (5-1, 2.47 ERA with his teams winning 6 of his 7 starts) are most impressive; Morris didn�t have staggering career numbers in October (7-4, 3.80 ERA) but pitched some of baseball�s greatest postseason victories. Blyleven�s fans argue that his teams dragged him down; Morris� fans ignore the many great players who took the field behind him.
Looming in the background of Blyleven�s case is the specter of Tommy John and Jim Kaat. If you put in Blyleven on the strength of 287 career wins, the argument goes, you have to honor John (288) and Kaat (283). But seriously, who thinks those guys were Hall of Famers?
Continue reading Hall of Fame: Blyleven, Morris, Kaat, John, Tiant
Hall of Fame: Gossage, Sutter & Other Relievers
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
The starting-pitcher analysis is taking longer than I expected; look for me to wrap up the Hall of Fame debate with an overview of Morris, Blyleven, Tiant, John & Kaat next week. For now I�ll take a brief look at the relief pitchers on the ballot.
Let�s start with the basics: There have been two Hall of Famers elected as career relief pitchers: Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm. Until about the 1950s (with rare exceptions like Fred �Firpo� Marberry), outstanding pitchers rarely spent a significant period of their careers in relief. The top relief pitchers of the 1900-1955 period do include a number of Hall of Famers, but those were starters who closed games between starts (including Lefty Grove and Walter Johnson) or old guys playing out the string (Satchel Paige, who was a highly effective reliever in the majors, and still a strikeout pitcher, in his mid-40s). Because of this we have no established standards for what is and is not a Hall of Fame reliever. What we do have is Fingers and Wilhelm.
Continue reading Hall of Fame: Gossage, Sutter & Other Relievers
Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy, Jim Rice, and Kirby Puckett
My 12/29/00 Column on Dale Murphy and Jim Rice, along with Kirby Puckett. This originally ran on the BSG site. I’ve rethought the Rice comment – I think I’d put him on the outside now – and the part about being proud of what an upstanding guy Kirby was is now cringe-inducing. But here we go:
PUCKETT, MURPHY AND RICE
Kirby Puckett is probably headed in to the Hall on a wave of sentiment and his .318 lifetime batting average. Dale Murphy (23.25 % of vote) appears headed to join Roger Maris as the only back-to-back MVPs never to make it. LF/DH Jim Rice (51.50% of vote) is at a critical point: with bigger candidates headed to the ballot soon, he needs to sustain the momentum of having received votes from more than half the voters last time around. The fairest way to look at these three is to lump them together, as I did with the first basemen.
Continue reading Hall of Fame, Dale Murphy, Jim Rice, and Kirby Puckett
Hall of Fame: Lou Whitaker, Dave Concepcion and Dave Parker
Hall of Fame Part 3: Lou Whitaker, Dave Concepcion and Dave Parker (Originally ran 12/22/00 on the Boston Sports Guy website):
SECOND BASEMAN
Lou Whitaker is a pretty easy one, in my book. No question whether Sweet Lou had the longetivity – only Eddie Collins and Joe Morgan played more games at second base than Whitaker. It’s a tough position; a lot of guys get ruined turning double plays in traffic. And there was never any down time in the 18 seasons (not counting an 11-game cup-a-joe in 1977) of Whitaker’s career. He was Rookie of the Year in 1978, and notched his two best slugging percentages in his last two seasons, 1994 and 1995 (when he was platooned). He never had an on base percentage below .331, and was over .360 eleven times, finishing his career at .363. He slugged over .400 fourteen years in a row, a very rare accomplishment for a middle infielder.
Continue reading Hall of Fame: Lou Whitaker, Dave Concepcion and Dave Parker
Hall of Fame: Gary Carter, Keith Hernandez, Don Mattingly, Steve Garvey and Lance Parrish
(Originally posted 12/15/00 on the Boston Sports Guy website):
CATCHERS
I?ve already laid out the bones of the case for Gary Carter in my column on Tony Perez, and I intend to go back and do a more detailed treatment of the Carter vs. Fisk debate another day, so I’ll pass over him without much comment here. Carter is the easiest call of any of the plausible candidates on this ballot – in fact, I’m as sure he belongs in the Hall as I am that Candy Maldonado doesn’t. He’s indisputably one of the 10 best ever at his position. I would vote Carter IN.
Rating the Pitchers
This columnar addendum was originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
Translated Pitching Records
One common theme in this column is that comparisons of pitchers over time, in different eras and different parks and for different teams, is only possible and certainly only sensible if some effort is made to adjust the statistical record to reflect the massive changes in the ways that starting pitchers are used and the conditions under which they labor. For that purpose, I have developed a simple, if primitive, method for converting or �translating� pitching records from one context into another, or (more commonly) into a common context.
The bottom line: when I run �Translated Pitching Records,� this is what I am talking about � translation into the same context for workload, league ERA, team offense, and park. Read on if you want the gory details of how the method works. I�ll be glad to answer email inquiries by anyone who thinks I�ve left too much out of this description.
Free Agent Roundup
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
FREE AGENT QUICK TAKES (an incomplete list):
ALEX RODRIGUEZ: It�s not impossible to build a team from a marginal contender into a champion, starting with one huge paycheck. After all, the Lakers did it. But the Rangers aren�t run by a baseball Jerry West and can�t bank on just pulling a rookie superstar out of their tails. Instead, they just have to bank on Tom Hicks not caring about the payroll. They still don�t have any pitching, although they do have Royce Clayton to trade (hey, how about Clayton for Kevin Appier?). I guess Rodriguez hopes to capitalize on the pro-Ranger bias in the MVP voting and favorable tax treatment from a pro-Ranger White House bent on rewarding Hispanic Floridians. $252 million is ridiculous money but it�s better than spending $6 million on Mike Lansing; at least they will get something for the money. This won�t help the Yanks and Sawx in re-signing Jeter and Nomar.
Funny, I don�t remember Boras asking the Braves to move the fences in � for their own good, of course � when he was representing Greg Maddux as a free agent.
MANNY RAMIREZ: What a coup, even if an expensive one. Actually there�s not much to say; A-Rod is the game�s best all-around player and younger, but Manny is baseball�s best hitter and will do wonders for the offense. The key now is how the Sox turn the crowd of extras into successful platoons or trade bait at 1B, 2B, 3B and DH. Just forget about that 1-for-18 thing . . .
JUAN GONZALEZ: Yup, turning down that $140 million was a great idea . . . I�m surprised Boras didn�t demand that the Rangers sign him too. Hard to see where he goes besides Detroit.
MIKE MUSSINA: The rich not only get richer, they get to gripe about how everyone else went over budget. Mussina�s no lock to make the Yankees a lot better � remember what people said about Roger Clemens, and his first year in pinstripes was a disaster. Mussina went 11-15 last year, and with weak middle relief and no run support he could do that again. Not to say it�s not a great move, but funny things happen and the Yanks still need offensive help.
MIKE HAMPTON: I hated to lose Hampton, but an 8-year contract for a starting pitcher who has to throw 20 extra pitches a night in his home games isn�t a great idea. Then again, the Rox have to at least try to have some pitching, and since Hampton�s the most extreme groundball pitcher in the game they will finally get to test out that theory. He’s probably a better gamble the next 3-5 years than Mussina, except for the Coors effect. Buyer beware: Hampton was 4-6 with a 4.83 ERA on the road in 2000.
KEVIN APPIER: Glad it’s not my $42 million. Over the past two years, Appier has posted a 4.85 ERA pitching mostly in a pitcher’s park; given an unusually high number of unearned runs, that comes to 5.34 runs per 9 innings (granted, the A’s porous defense is part of that). He has averaged, per 9 innings, 9.57 hits, 1.1 HR, 4.14 walks and 5.79 K. Appier’s sharply declining K/BB ratio is a major indicator of a guy who’s reduced to nibbling because he’s not fooling anyone anymore. He may or may not be an improvement over the injury-prone Bobby Jones. If the Mets get one good year from Appier before he crumbles I�ll be happy.
SUBWAY SERIES DIARY PART II
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
GAME THREE: HERNANDEZ v. REED AT SHEA STADIUM
Before the game, they gave Al Leiter the Roberto Clemente award for being such a good person. Maybe it�s just me, but don�t athletes always seem to get in trouble after winning these things? Like when the NBA gave PJ Brown the citizenship award before he decided to play Charles Martin to Charlie Ward�s Jim McMahon?
The Met announcers pointed out that Met leadoff men have opened Game 3 of the World Series with a home run in each of the team’s three prior Series appearances. [THIS WEEK�s TRIVIA QUESTION: name them]. But Timo Perez went quietly. Another bad omen.
Both starting pitchers brought their Good Stuff for this one. Rick Reed, in particular, cranked it up a notch, striking out 8. I�ve always been a Rick Reed fan going back to his Pirates days; he was on my Rotisserie team in 1994. Reed seems to have something extra on the ball in September and October; for his career, in the regular season, he has struck out 6.28 batters per 9 innings after September 1, compared to 5.47 the rest of the year; in the postseason the past two years that jumped to 7.94.
SUBWAY SERIES DIARY PART I
Sometimes in baseball, as in life, the bad guys win. In fact, it may happen more often than not; that’s what makes victory so sweet when it does come. I’ve delayed long enough; it’s time to put to paper my Subway Series Diary.
Despite the Yankees’ dominance in 1998 and 1999, many people (including me) were skeptical of their chances when the playoffs started and still favored the Mets at the start of the series. Then again, I rated the Yanks as the best of the AL contenders in late July; while that was based on a vast overestimation of Denny Neagle, I recognized that the two teams were closely matched. I expected the series to come down to the Mets’ ability to knock out the Yankee starters or drag games into extra innings, on the theory that the Mets would excel in bullpen depth and home run power. What I didn’t anticipate was a series where the Yankees would pull out so many close ones.
THE 2000 NL MVP BALLOT
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
Jeff Kent, Most Valuable Player. Just when you thought you’d seen everything.
Kent has always been a good player, of course, but until he arrived in San Francisco nobody ever accused him of being an MVP candidate. The irony: across the bay, Jason Giambi pushed ahead of two nearly identical competitors (Delgado and Thomas) for the AL MVP on the basis of his clubhouse leadership. In the NL, the numbers 1 and 2 in the balloting went to two players who lead nobody but themselves – on the same team, no less. Kent and Bonds don’t even speak. That must be what the voters had in mind when they made Dusty the Manager of the Year . . .
The choices in the NL this season are murkier and even more subjective than the AL. We can start with two basic points, though:
1. Forget the pitchers. With starting pitchers throwing fewer innings every year, a starter has to be overwhelmingly dominant to deserve MVP consideration. As I argued last week, San Pedro de Fenway, with an ERA half that of any competitor, meets that standard. As great as Randy Johnson is, though, no NL hurler comes close to the impact of the best everyday players. And don’t get me started about giving MVP awards to closers who throw 65 innings a year. Not until a pinch hitter has won the award.
2. The numbers, taken on their face, demand that the award go to Todd Helton. Helton totally dominated all the important offensive categories. He clearly put more runs on the board than any other player. If you want to follow the route of 1997 (Larry Walker) and 1995 (Dante Bichette finishing second in the balloting), Helton’s your man.
The fact that Helton finished fifth, and was placed first on only one ballot, is a good sign that even the most Luddite writers have now seen enough Coors Field baseball to recognize that hitting .370 with power in thin air does not make you Lou Gehrig. Helton’s a fine player, just hitting his prime, and he had a wonderful year; even taken in context he deserves to be considered among the MVP candidates. But he’s no Barry Bonds.
THE 2000 AL MVP BALLOT
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
Well, trial�s over, and the Crank is open for business. I�m still getting over the bitterness, so I may wait for the end of the postseason awards to put the finishing touches on the Subway Series Diary. Instead, without further ado…
THE 2000 AL MVP BALLOT
With the votes in for Giambi, who should have actually been named the 2000 American League MVP? Well, as usual, I like to set out my criteria for the award first: it should usually be given to the player who does the best job of scoring or preventing runs. At the end of this column I�ll talk a bit about the more intangible factors, but first we have to look at the bottom line: the numbers.
Baseball players have two basic jobs: putting runs on the scoreboard, and keeping the other team off the scoreboard. All the other goals � wins, pennants, championships � are team goals that the player can contribute to but can�t control. Now, in a close MVP race, contributions to the �team� goals � like leadership and clutch performance � can matter. The award is for the player with the most actual value to his team, after all, not the most productive talent. If one player really does contribute big hits at big times, that makes him more valuable � even if we know that that extra value is largely luck or chance. But at the end of the day, the guy whose individual accomplishments produce and/or prevent the most runs is almost always the most valuable player (and the most deserving of the award).
SUBWAY SERIES PREVIEW
Sadly, I am still up to my eyeballs with the day job (three weeks into a trial) so I won’t be doing a comprehensive preview of the Ultimate Battle Between Good and Evil (also known as Mets vs. Yankees). I’ll give my thoughts about the Series after I come back up for air, but I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to slip in a few notes before it all starts:
Mets-Braves and NL Pennant race wrapup
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
Sadly, albeit temporarily, it�s time for me to go; in my day job as a lawyer I�m working on a trial starting October 2, and while you can never predict how long these things will take, it will be after the baseball season before I�ve got the free time to write again. Rather than depress you with a column on the AL Wild Card race, I�ll depress myself with a look at the team I�ve followed most closely: the Mets.
I’m a die-hard fan, going back to the dark days of the late seventies, and I hate to panic over a two week slump. But the reasons for the Mets’ decline are serious; I have a bad feeling about this one.
In mid-August, the Mets had the best record in baseball. On August 18, they were 73-49, a 97-win pace. On August 25 they thumped Randy Johnson 13-3. As recently as August 30, they stood tied with the Braves in first place. Their record from August 19-September 11, however, is 8-13. Their record from August 29-September 11 is 3-9. Any way you slice it, the team is slumping and getting worse.
The Braves, over the same period, have not played real well either, but not nearly as woefully as the Mets. They are 10-13 since August 18, but 5-3 since September 2. They appear to be righting the ship.
With the Diamondbacks sinking faster than expected under the weight of a brutal schedule and a limp Unit, neither of these teams needs to panic � as long as they play modestly well, they will both be back in the saddle for the postseason. The Braves have the toughest schedule, though not by a huge margin, and with six games head-to-head the division race is hardly over.
But the signs for the Mets are very bad. For the fourth year in a row, the Mets have followed the same pattern. Start the season with a bunch of holes in the rotation and lineup, and struggle from the gate. Jettison the non-performers (usually at least one starting pitcher and a centerfielder), rebuild with relief help and middle-of-the-road veterans at the trading deadline, and get blazing hot in June, July and into late August/early September. Then, the sinking starts…
While the Mets� starting rotation � particularly Mike Hampton and Glendon Rusch � has been brilliant even during the downswing, the offense, defense and bullpen have all been in a tailspin. Which are causes for alarm, and which are just passing? Let’s break it down…
NL West Matchup (Giants v. Diamondbacks)
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
The National League West race has to be the most under-reported story of the baseball season, at least here on the East Coast. You would never know from the local media — with the exception of the �Mike and the Mad Dog� show on WFAN radio, and only because Chris �Mad Dog� Russo is a San Francisco Giants fan — that the NL West has the best composite record of any division in baseball (winning percentage of .526 through Saturday night. Or that, as Peter Gammons reported this week, every division in baseball has a winning record except the NL Central). Or that the West had 4 contending teams for the first half of the season. Even with the Rockies dead and the Dodgers only theoretically alive, the West promises a fierce two-team race down the stretch, with Arizona trailing the Giants by only 3 games.
RAPID RESPONSE TO THE BICHETTE DEAL
Let’s take a quick look at this deal. Short term, it’s not a terrible move if Bichette is used properly. I know I said that about Mike Lansing and Ed Sprague, but part of the proper use of Bichette is to eat Lansing’s playing time with Offerman and Merloni holding down the infield. If he plays at the expense of Trot Nixon or the revived Troy O’Leary, the Sox are in beeeg trouble.
Astonishingly, some people thought Bichette was a “disappointment” in Cincinnati because he didn’t hit there the way he did at Coors. That’s like being surprised that you are not as tall sitting down as standing up. I was pleasantly surprised that Bichette managed to pull off an on base percentage over .350 and a slugging percentage over .450 in Cincinnati, numbers better than his road stats in recent years. His avg/slg/obp this season is 295/466/353, above the league average but not far above.
Bichette was slightly below average in on base and slugging among NL outfielders, so he can still hit some and can help if he’s grabbing at bats from Lansing (195/218/255 the past month) or Brogna (200/333/294 the past month, still not hitting as well with the Sox as Mike Stanley with the A’s). Offerman has also been weak lately, but I still think he is a better hitter than that and somebody has to play second. With the Sox twelfth in the league in scoring (producing just 4.5 runs per game since the All-Star break compared to 5.24 before), a guy who’s a just-above-league-average hitter, even to DH, can help. The main offensive downside is that Bichette was leading the NL with 18 GIDP. Despite the presence of so many slow, over-30 righthanded hitters on the roster, the Sox had been best in the AL at avoiding double plays (just 96 so far; Bichette would be 20% of the team total), probably because there have been so few baserunners since those guys all arrived. Of course, this assumes that Jimy knows not to try Bichette in the field, where he is at best a stationary object, his feared throwing arm long a thing of the past.
As I’ve noted with Duquette’s earlier deals, what makes this stink is (1) the appearance that Dan Duquette thinks these guys are good ballplayers and (2) the salary, since Bichette brings a fat $6.5 million price tag (he makes as much money as Jeff Bagwell does in 2001) that will drag the Sox budget like Jacob Marley’s chains next season, to say nothing of dragging around Bichette himself at age 37. Also, while one of the guys they traded sounds like a stiff, the other one (Chris Reitsma) is reportedly stuck in AA only because he was hurt the last two years; his numbers between A and AA this season (an ERA around 3 and a K/BB ratio of about 3-to-1) suggest a guy who might turn out to be a good pitcher. He’s still just 22.
All these guys are pieces, spare parts, that may help the Red Sox get to the playoffs — but why spend the money on that? Pedro or no Pedro, this is not a World Championship team, not with all these holes and Nixon not ready for his close up. And this was already a team that could get in. For the small benefit of slightly improving the odds of a first-round or maybe ALCS exit, the Sox coughed up a decent pitching prospect and swallowed a big salary. That’s a bad deal.
Todd Helton vs. .400
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
Now that Nomar Garciaparra�s bid to become the first .400 shortstop in 104 years has gone by the wayside, the media monster trains its sights on Todd Helton. Will he be the first .400 hitter since Ted Williams and the first National Leaguer to turn the trick since Bill Terry?
Let�s get to the key fact first: after Wednesday afternoon�s game, the Rockies have 19 home games left and 16 road games. That favors Helton, who is hitting .432 at home but .360 on the road. The tough schedule issues come in the last week. Will the lefthanded Helton, batting almost seventy points lower against lefties, sit out against Randy Johnson? Arizona comes to town for a four-game set before the season�s final series, and Johnson is likely to pitch, particularly if the D-Backs are still in the race. Following that, Colorado ends the season in Atlanta. Will Helton face Maddux, Glavine and Millwood? Will he face lefty-killer John Rocker (AKA the man who lost to Brent Mayne)? Or will he mostly see minor-league relievers as Bobby Cox pulls his starters after five innings, as has been his practice in past season-ending serieses (except in 1998, when the opponent was the Mets and they were fighting for a wild card)?
Hall of Fame: Tony Perez, Jim Rice and Gary Carter
Column on Tony Perez, with comments on Gary Carter and Jim Rice (Originally posted 8/11/00 on the Boston Sports Guy website):
Carlton Fisk is easy, although I plan to return later this year to the tougher question of who was better, Fisk or Gary Carter. For the moment it’s enough to say that both should have been obvious first-ballot Hall of Famers. Leaving aside the active guys (Piazza, Rodriguez) and the Negro Leaguers (Josh Gibson, who was almost certainly greater than anyone to play the position in the majors), you would be hard pressed to list the ten best catchers of all time without both Carter and Fisk (the rest of my list: Bench, Berra, Cochrane, Campanella, Dickey, Hartnett, Buck Ewing, and Bill Freehan).
Lots of commentators have taken apart Tony Perez’s credentials; let’s skip the heavy-duty number crunching here because anyone who takes that angle has to regard Perez as much less than immortal.
Look at the stats: Perez is near the bottom of all Hall of Fame first basemen in batting, on-base, and slugging; the only one lower in both slugging and on-base percentage is the inexplicable selection of George “Highpockets” Kelly, who was sort of a poor man’s Cecil Cooper. Three points here:
Continue reading Hall of Fame: Tony Perez, Jim Rice and Gary Carter
Bid McPhee, Hall of Famer?
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
Who was the greatest second baseman of the 19th century? It may seem like a very academic question, but for one of this year’s Hall of Fame inductees it was critical.
Taking a break this week from the hubbub of the pennant races, I’m going to take an overdue look at the Hall of Fame Class of 2000. Part 2, later today, will focus on Tony Perez, and I’m skipping over Norman “Turkey” Stearns. I have no more idea than the man in the moon how good Turkey Stearns really was; the Negro League stats (including several consecutive home run titles and a career batting average of .359) are too spotty to be conclusive but they certainly don’t contradict his case for the Hall. According to the HOF web page, his contemporaries compared him to Al Simmons.
First, though, let’s start with the little-analyzed selection of John “Bid” McPhee.
Grading the Deadline Deals (AL)
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
The trading deadline is past; Peter Gammons can take a breath again, although from appearances he�s still exhaling pent-up rumors. What emerges are a few common themes:
1. Almost every deal that was made was to fill teams� weak spots with acceptable contributors, rather than to upgrade from contributing players to stars. The order of the day was the Mike Bordicks and B.J. Surhoffs of the world, not the Sammy Sosas and Albert Belles.
2. The contenders mostly held on to their top prospects; nobody sold the crown jewel of their farm system. Most teams, whether their farm system is loaded with talent or just trickling players, have 2 or 3 prospects who are critical to the organization�s future. Nearly none of those prospects were moved, unless you count Ed Yarnall.
3. The players who were dealt by the contenders were mostly high-risk players rather than sure contributors: guys with talent whose stock had fallen sharply. The guys they got in return were mostly low-risk players who are likely to keep doing what they were doing for a few more months.
Let�s look at the deals that were done over the past two months and try to grade the teams (hey, if I didn�t run a column like this they would yank my amateur sportswriter�s license); I�ll take on the AL this week and get to the NL races later, unless something more interesting intervenes.
Ranking The AL Contenders
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
The next three weeks or so should be decisive in the pennant races. The close races are decided in September, often in head-to-head games, and to some extent they can turn on freak happenings, bad bounces and the like. But it�s the stretch after the All-Star break that decides which races will be close and who drops out of the pack. Plus, the trading deadline is less than two weeks away.
It�s a tough time of year, if you’re a ballplayer. By late July, many pitchers have been saddled with a bunch of losses, guys who started hot have slumped, a lot of players know that this won’t be a great year for them, and nearly every team has lost some big guys to injury. The three-day vacation is over, the last interleague matchups are gone with the All-Star hype, even if the All-Star Game itself has turned into a cross between the Pro Bowl and the lowest levels of Little League (“But Joe, little Johnny will cry if he doesn’t get to play!”). Days off get few and far between from here to September. Even fans can have it tough if vacations mean being out of radio or TV range of hometown baseball coverage.
With the AL race shaping up, it�s time to rate the contenders. Astonishingly, only two AL teams (the White Sox and Mariners, no less) are on a pace to win 90 games, and only one (love those Devil Rays!) is on track for 95 losses. Baseball�s economic/structural problems haven?t been magically solved in four months, but predictions that the standings would remain static throughout the new millennium, with the rich getting richer and the poor poorer, seem a bit overwrought at the moment. Things always change.
I ranked the eight contenders in the AL position-by-position. I would have left out the Angels, who I just can’t see as serious contenders with their pitching, but right now they are second in the wild card race and just percentage points behind the Yankees, so I had to include them.
Remembering 1986
(Originally posted 7/13/00 on the Boston Sports Guy website; reposted here with a link to a Bill Simmons column on Bill Buckner)
WARNING: DO NOT CONTINUE IF A COLUMN BY A METS FAN ON THE 1986 WORLD SERIES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR PHYSICAL OR MENTAL HEALTH! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!
In preparing for this week�s Mets-Red Sox matchup — subtitled, “Who Wants To Be Knocked Out Of The Pennant Race In July?” — I happened to mention that I could write a column on the 86 World Series in my sleep if Sports Guy Nation could handle it. Strangely, my host on this website actually encouraged this. I think he�s trying to get me killed. Still, knowing when to keep my mouth shut has never been one of my virtues.
One other note: Upon beginning this column, I promise not to mention B___ B_______. Here we go…
The NL Outfielders
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
I was going to do a column with my NL All-Star team picks to follow up on last week, but frankly a lot of the NL roster is uncontroversial (the only bona fide head-scratcher is Darryl Kile), and the major controversy (second base) is one where I am not certain I can be impartial. There are very few active players whom I have watched play more baseball games than Edgardo Alfonzo and Jeff Kent, and no matter what the evidence (which is a close call) says, I find it impossible to conceive of Kent as a better player.
The one position that interested me was the outfield. The NL has a remarkably balanced mixed bag of outfielders, and ranking them is really an intriguing endeavor. I set out to rank the top ten, regardless of who they play for.
Let’s look at the 2000 hitting stats of the top 11 outfielders in the league. To keep this manageable, I left a number of guys out here because they are having seasons out of context (Klesko), are not established players (Hidalgo), have been hurt too much (Larry Walker), or are just playing at very high altitude (Hammonds):
2000 AL All-Star Ballot
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
To figure out who belongs on the All-Star team, you first have to decide what kind of players you want to pick. In theory, I prefer to see the All-Star Team populated by the best players in the game, regardless of whether they happen to be having the best year. After all, nobody looks back and says, “gee, Willie Mays shouldn’t have been on the All-Star Team in such-and-such year because Jim Hickman had a great month of May.” The opposite method leaves you with Jack Armstrong starting the All-Star Game. In practice, though, I look at this year’s stats as much as anyone.
I guess we have to accept that the real question is this: Who would we pick if the All-Star Game were voted on in September? It seems wrong that guys like Albert Belle and Ken Caminiti (who wasn?t on the team in 1996 when he was NL MVP) get punished for saving their best work for the stretch drive.
If Nomar is hitting .280 at the break and Mike Bordick is hitting .390, it’s a safe bet that Bordick will wind up pretty close to Nomar at the end of the year, so we can fairly honor Bordick for being a better player in 2000. If Bordick is hitting .330 and Nomar is hitting .310, though, I’d rather have Nomar; let’s be serious about which one of them will hit below .260 after the break and which will hit around .330 (we will get to the real numbers on the shortstops below).
You know the rules: 30 roster spots (too many, really, but necessary because we have to take team representatives) and one player from each team. I will pick my own starting squad since the balloting’s still open. I will also leave players off the roster if they are on the DL. A note on stats: I usually write my column over a few days, so the stats here may not all be updated through today. But I don’t compare players based on different days’ stats.
Before I fill in the lineups, let’s start by making room on the roster for the guys the All-Star Game exists for: great players in their prime, having seasons that adequately reflect their greatness. The game would be a farce without the following guys: Pedro, Nomar, Jeter, Alex and Ivan Rodriguez, Frank Thomas, Roberto Alomar, Mike Mussina, and (although I don’t see them as Hall of Famers) Mariano Rivera and Bernie Williams. Manny Ramirez would fit this bill if he was healthy, but he’s not.
Then there are good players having monster years: Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Edgar Martinez, Troy Glaus, Derek Lowe, Darrin Erstad.
That leaves us with 14 more roster spots to fill, and four teams to account for: Kansas City, Minnestota, Tampa Bay and Detroit.
Now for the lineups:
Sammy Sosa For Trot Nixon?
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
This column is a companion piece to Sports Guy’s feature on in-season trades from last Friday. My own take on such trades is that you usually make the Mike Boddicker and Doyle Alexander trades to push for a division title — even though they both sounded pretty dumb around 1996, when John Smoltz was the Cy Young, Brady Anderson hit 50 homers, and Curt Schilling was emerging as a dominant power pitcher.
As a Mets fan in the 1980s, I used to be more down on dealing prospects because prospects are a cheap, renewable resource; use them as the Indians and Braves did in the mid-90s (Chipper, Thome, Manny, Javy, Millwood, Colon) and you can basically replace an aging contender with a younger one without missing a beat. The alternative, I thought at the time, was the 80s Yankees: forever bringing in Winfields and Griffeys and Hendersons and Don Baylors and Jack Clarks, shipping out young pitchers like Doug Drabek, Bob Tewksbury and Jose Rijo and forever mired in second place until they gradually sunk back into the cellar.
Experience has changed that view. First of all, I watched almost every Mets prospect of the past 6 years (other than Alfonzo) be destroyed by injury, often at the AA or AAA level. (Cue up the theme music, to the tune of the Go-Gos �Vacation�: �Jay Payton on the disabled list! Jay Payton needs to have surgery!�) I was less upset when the Mets made the Hampton trade (giving up two potential stars for a free agent pitcher and an outfielder who might or might not have one last good year left), because who knows whether Octavio Dotel can stay healthy?
Today�s high-offense environment — in which pitchers throw more pitches per inning to increasingly-selective, ibcreasingly-powerful hitters — has made it more difficult to break in talented young pitchers without injury or horrific ineffectiveness (Jeff Suppan anyone?). And the increase in homers has extended the productive phase of power hitters� careers into their thirties. As a result, trading young arms and injury-prone outfield prospects for established stars is a more sensible gamble than it was ten years ago. If I was the Yankees, I�d even have to consider dealing Nick Johnson, who looks for all the world like a young Jeff Bagwell and has even drawn comparisons to Lou Gehrig, because Johnson has never been healthy for a full season and may never be (ditto the Mets and Alex Escobar).
As Mets fans learned after 1990 and Mariners fans may see after 2000, even teams with a core of young talent can see their window of opportunity close in a hurry for many reasons. True fans would rather live with the championship and the consequences than spend years afterwards wondering �what if we�d added one more bat…�
There are still three exceptions:
Shoeless Joe and Charlie Hustle
This is a slightly edited version of a column on Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose that first ran on the BSG site in June 2000.
You might remember that a number of prominent members of Congress shepherded through “commemorative” legislation in the fall of 1999 urging Major League Baseball to honor Shoeless Joe Jackson with induction into the Hall of Fame. (Warning: the link is to a PDF file. There was also a companion bill that passed the South Carolina Legislature in 1998, but I’ve mislaid the link since this article first ran.) It seems like a big contrast to the events of the last few years, as baseball continues to refuse Pete Rose permission to be honored for his accomplishments — they barred him from the 25th anniversary festivities of the ’75 Big Red Machine and continue to insist on keeping him out of Cooperstown.
Putting Shoeless Joe in the Hall of Fame would be outrageous; the people involved with this legislation should be ashamed of themselves. While Rose is also deserving of sanction, his case is a much different story; I will explain below why he should be allowed into Cooperstown.
Semi-Random Notes
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website.
A few semi-random notes:
* Continuing last week’s theme about the toll of Pudge Rodriguez’s heavy catching workload, we need to incorporate that dreaded phrase, “At this pace … ” Paces are pretty meaningless — particularly in April — except maybe to demonstrate precisely how far (or not far) out of whack a player is with his past performance. Once you move into June, however, paces will at least provide an early heads-up that certain records might be challenged this year.
For instance, through Tuesday, Pudge was on pace to ground into 42 double plays, easily breaking Jim Rice’s single season record of 36. Detroit’s Deivi Cruz (who bats at the bottom of baseball�s worst lineup) is also ahead of Rice�s pace (38), and two others are on a pace to tie the record: Ben Grieve and Garret Anderson. Rodriguez grounded into a major-league leading 32 DPs last year and was caught stealing 12 times, thus giving back about as many outs on the basepaths as he created with his throwing arm ( he�s been caught 3 times in 4 tries this year). Somebody should keep track of the record for “Most outs given back.”
* Years from now, if you ask me when I knew the home run explosion of the late 1990s had finally gone too far, I will probably point to the moment in last Sunday’s Mets-Devil Rays game when the Rays got back-to-back homers from Felix Martinez and Esteban Yan. Yan’s homer came on the first pitch thrown to him as a professional baseball player. He hadn�t swung a bat in a game of any kind in ten years.
* A CBS Sportsline column claimed that some people say that Antonio Alfonseca has �an unfair advantage� in having six fingers to grip the ball. Who are these people? Randy Johnson has an advantage in being 6�10� and throwing 98 miles an hour. Ted Williams had an advantage in having insanely good eyesight. Hall of Famer Mordecai �Three Finger� Brown had an advantage because a greusome childhood accident left him with a mangled right hand, which he used to put movement on his pitches that no one without his �handicap� could duplicate. Is that unfair? Get over it.
* Where are they now? In case you missed it, ESPN.com reported in a May 19, story about Terry Steinbach that Dana Kiecker is still pitching, throwing amateur “town ball” in his native Minnesota. There… now you can sleep at night.
Catchers and Graveyards
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
Here in NY, where the Baseball Crank resides, the question comes up often: should Mike Piazza be moved from behind the plate? The issue is front and center again after Piazza suffered his third concussion in three years Wednesday night, in a bloody mess. All three were as a result of being hit in the head with a bat.
Piazza’s a defensive liability, the argument goes, the team will never go far if he wears down in October every year and he’ll last longer at the bat. In the AL, the issue is the same, albeit for different reasons: should Ivan Rodriguez move, and if so when? Piazza says he wants to stay a catcher as long as he can. Rodriguez, who doesn’t get asked the question as often, says in a few years he’d like to move to 2B to prolong his career.
Players vs. Fans
Last week’s melee at Wrigley Field, touched off by fans stealing Chad Kreuter’s hat, triggered the usual bout of hand-wringing over out-of-control fans and players who crossed the line by attacking them. (Next on FOX: “When Backup Catchers Attack!”) What is wasn’t, was something new. While it has never been a common occurrence, players have been going into the stands to settle scores with the fans for as long as the game has been played before paying crowds.
Just a few examples:
WHERE TO, RICKEY?
Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website
So, Rickey Henderson, baseball’s would-be all-time runs leader, is unemployed again. Boo hoo. Someone will probably pick him up, eventually, although it’s worth noting that he was cut by a team, the Mets, with one of baseball’s worst outfields. The question is, should anyone pick him up?
FRANK SULLIVAN
(Originally posted on the Boston Sports Guy website)
I was going to write about Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and the greatest pitchers of all time, but I’ll get to that later. This week I wanted to write about Frank Sullivan, who pitched for the Red Sox in the late 1950s.
Down With The One-Out Specialists
The column that started it all; originally posted on the Boston’s Sports Guy website.
Hi. This is my debut column here on the Boston’s Sports Guy website as The Baseball Crank. Bill Simmons has been generous enough to spare some room in his corner of cyberspace for my column, which will be a rant of irregular schedule and questionable wisdom, probably starting out every other week but hopefully (day job and long-suffering wife permitting) working up to a weekly spew of bile. Some of you (those who read Bill’s “Ramblings” column in college, back when we actually had to print words onto paper) may remember my byline there as the “Angry Young Man.” Of course, I’m not as young these days, plus I don’t really want an irate letter from Billy Joel’s lawyers, so I’ll be writing here as The Baseball Crank. (For you history buffs, “crank” is what they called fans around the turn of the last century.) I had also considered being the “Cranky Old Fart,” but that will have to wait just a bit longer.
My 1999 AL MVP Ballot
This is an email I sent to friends on October 5, 1999, reformatted for publication
The AL MVP race, to my mind, is one of the easiest in memory. There are many fine hitters, including several who play key defensive positions, but no one of them towers over the others. The one irreplaceable commodity in the American League this season was Pedro Martinez.
Pedro: 23-4 .852
Rest of Red Sox: 71-64 .526
Oakland A’s: 87-75 .537
A’s without Gil Heredia: 74-67 .525
There you have it — the rest of the Red Sox weren’t good enough to catch the wild card, and were only slightly over .500 without him. Take out Pedro and Gil Heredia — an average pitcher, close to the league average in ERA, who was in the A’s rotation all year — and the race is too close to call. I thought last year that Martinez meant more to his team than any other player, and last year was an off season next to this one. I mean, look at the Red Sox, seriously — they’re basically the late-50s Cubs, one great shortstop and a whole lot of nothing else special. Want Nomar as your MVP? Explain why Pat Rapp, with an ERA half a run below the league, went 6-7. Why Brian Rose, with exactly the league ERA, went 7-6. Why Bret Saberhagen, with a 2.95 ERA, had a lower winning percentage than David Wells (4.82 ERA), Orlando Hernandez (4.12 ERA), Freddy Garcia (4.07 ERA) or Gil Meche (4.73 ERA). Remember how well the Sox played while Martinez was on the DL? Not.
My 1998 AL MVP Ballot
This is an email I sent to friends on September 3, 1998, reformatted for publication.
This is a hotly contested question. Let’s establish a few parameters.
First, if the Rangers win the AL West, it will be almost impossible to beat Juan Gonzalez, even though he is clearly not the best hitter in the league and has no defensive value, because guys who lead the league in RBI on winning teams almost always win.