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May 25, 2016
POLITICS: The Dog That Didn't Bark: Trump Voters in Down-Ballot Primaries

NRO: The Dog That Didn't Bark: Trump Voters in Down-Ballot Primaries

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:29 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
May 23, 2016
POLITICS: You Won't Believe Why Hillary Bagman Terry McAuliffe Is Under Federal Investigation

RS: You Won't Believe Why Hillary Bagman Terry McAuliffe Is Under Federal Investigation

Posted by Baseball Crank at 8:04 PM | Politics 2016
May 17, 2016
POLITICS: The Never Trump Movement Is Neither Anti-American Nor Hypocritical

RS: The Never Trump Movement Is Neither Anti-American Nor Hypocritical

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:54 PM | Politics 2016
May 11, 2016
POLITICS: A Very Different Republican Coalition: Can It Fly?

RS: A Very Different Republican Coalition: Can It Fly?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:19 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
May 6, 2016
POLITICS: Is #NeverTrump Doomed To Fold?

NRO: Is #NeverTrump Doomed To Fold?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:34 PM | Politics 2016
May 5, 2016
POLITICS: Dear Republican Politician: Let's Talk about Donald Trump

NRO: Dear Republican Politician: Let's Talk about Donald Trump

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:32 PM | Politics 2016
May 4, 2016
POLITICS: Politics Is Still Downstream of Culture

RS: Politics Is Still Downstream of Culture

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:34 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Trump's Next Victim: Pollsters

RS: Trump's Next Victim: Pollsters

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:33 PM
May 1, 2016
POLITICS: Yes, Donald Trump Would Be Worse Than Any Prior Republican Nominee

RS: Yes, Donald Trump Would Be Worse Than Any Prior Republican Nominee

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:31 AM | Politics 2016
April 27, 2016
POLITICS: Trump Supporters Already Pre-Spinning November Trump Loss

RS: Trump Supporters Already Pre-Spinning November Trump Loss

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:31 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: The Fiorina Pick

NRO: The Fiorina Pick

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:33 PM | Politics 2016
April 26, 2016
POLITICS: Ten Reasons Moderates Should Vote for Ted Cruz

NRO: Ten Reasons Moderates Should Vote for Ted Cruz

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:29 PM | Politics 2016
April 25, 2016
POLITICS/FOOTBALL: Donald Trump Hearts Tom Brady; Does Indiana?

RS: Donald Trump Hearts Tom Brady; Does Indiana?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:30 PM | Football • | Politics 2016
April 20, 2016
HISTORY/POLITICS: Do Not Weep for Andrew Jackson

NRO: Do Not Weep for Andrew Jackson

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:27 PM | History • | Politics 2016
April 19, 2016
POLITICS: What To Watch For In Tonight's NY Republican Primary

RS: What To Watch For In Tonight's NY Republican Primary

Posted by Baseball Crank at 7:39 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
POLITICS: When Will Democrats Return Trump's Donations?

NRO: When Will Democrats Return Trump's Donations?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:16 PM | Politics 2016
April 8, 2016
POLITICS: After Wisconsin, By The Numbers

RS: After Wisconsin, By The Numbers

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:28 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
April 5, 2016
POLITICS: No, Donald Trump Can't "Burn It Down." Washington Would Go On The Same.

RS: No, Donald Trump Can't "Burn It Down." Washington Would Go On The Same.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:27 AM | Politics 2016
April 4, 2016
LAW/POLITICS: BREAKING: SCOTUS Rejects "One Man One Vote" Challenge

RS: BREAKING: SCOTUS Rejects "One Man One Vote" Challenge

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:26 PM | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2016
March 25, 2016
POLITICS: Why Did Almost Nobody See The Trade Issue Coming Before Trump?

NRO: Why Did Almost Nobody See The Trade Issue Coming Before Trump?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:30 PM | Politics 2016
March 24, 2016
POLITICS: Can Donald Trump or Ted Cruz Beat Hillary Clinton? A New National Poll May Surprise You

RS: Can Donald Trump or Ted Cruz Beat Hillary Clinton? A New National Poll May Surprise You

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:24 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
March 18, 2016
POLITICS: Mitt Romney: I'm Voting For Ted Cruz. You Should Too.

RS: Mitt Romney: I'm Voting For Ted Cruz. You Should Too.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:23 PM | Politics 2016
March 17, 2016
POLITICS: It Is Time To Grow Up And Unite Cruz And Rubio Supporters Behind Ted Cruz

RS: It Is Time To Grow Up And Unite Cruz And Rubio Supporters Behind Ted Cruz

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:22 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Ted Cruz or Bust: Armageddon Tuesday By The Numbers

RS: Ted Cruz or Bust: Armageddon Tuesday By The Numbers

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:21 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
March 15, 2016
POLITICS: This Is Not 1980, And Donald Trump Is Not Ronald Reagan

RS: This Is Not 1980, And Donald Trump Is Not Ronald Reagan

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:20 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
March 9, 2016
POLITICS: It Is Time For Marco Rubio To Join Ted Cruz For The Benefit Of Marco Rubio

RS: It Is Time For Marco Rubio To Join Ted Cruz For The Benefit Of Marco Rubio

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:19 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
March 7, 2016
POLITICS: Donald Trump Is A Cowardly Appeaser Who Got Bullied By The Mob

RS: Donald Trump Is A Cowardly Appeaser Who Got Bullied By The Mob

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:19 PM | Politics 2016
March 5, 2016
POLITICS: Don't Overlook The Importance Of This Weekend's Voting

RS: Don't Overlook The Importance Of This Weekend's Voting

Posted by Baseball Crank at 2:17 AM | Politics 2016
March 3, 2016
POLITICS: Marco Rubio's Path To Victory After Super Tuesday, By The Numbers

RS: Marco Rubio's Path To Victory After Super Tuesday, By The Numbers

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:16 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
POLITICS: Will John Kasich Criticize Donald Trump Tonight or Run Interference for Him?

NRO: Will John Kasich Criticize Donald Trump Tonight or Run Interference for Him?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:10 PM | Politics 2016
March 1, 2016
POLITICS: New CNN Poll: Trump Loses To Hillary, Rubio & Cruz Would Win

RS: New CNN Poll: Trump Loses To Hillary, Rubio & Cruz Would Win

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:16 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
POLITICS: A Vote For Trump is a Vote For Hillary Clinton: Why Trump Is A Sure Loser

RS: A Vote For Trump is a Vote For Hillary Clinton: Why Trump Is A Sure Loser

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:15 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
February 28, 2016
POLITICS: Donald Trump is a Glass-Jawed Coward Afraid to Debate Rubio or Cruz Again

RS: Donald Trump is a Glass-Jawed Coward Afraid to Debate Rubio or Cruz Again

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:14 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Donald Trump Fails Three Times to Deny the KKK

NRO: Donald Trump Fails Three Times to Deny the KKK

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:14 PM | Politics 2016
February 27, 2016
POLITICS: Release Your Testimony, Donald Trump

RS: Release Your Testimony, Donald Trump

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:42 PM | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Marco Rubio Gives Democratic Strategists The Vapors

RS: Marco Rubio Gives Democratic Strategists The Vapors

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:41 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
POLITICS: Super Tuesday Preview: Massachusetts

RS: Super Tuesday Preview: Massachusetts

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:40 PM | Politics 2016
February 26, 2016
POLITICS: Will Donald Trump Bail on Future Debates?

RS: Will Donald Trump Bail on Future Debates?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:39 PM | Politics 2016
February 25, 2016
POLITICS: America Won Tonight's Debate

RS: America Won Tonight's Debate

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:38 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Second Florida Poll Of The Day Shows Rubio Closer To Trump

RS: Second Florida Poll Of The Day Shows Rubio Closer To Trump

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:37 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
POLITICS: New National Poll of Hispanics: Rubio Popular, Trump Hated

RS: New National Poll of Hispanics: Rubio Popular, Trump Hated

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:36 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
February 24, 2016
POLITICS: Rubio Campaign Calls On Trump To Renounce Pro-Trump White Supremacist Robocalls

RS: Rubio Campaign Calls On Trump To Renounce Pro-Trump White Supremacist Robocalls

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:36 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS/LAW: The Vindication of Rick Perry

RS: The Vindication of Rick Perry

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:35 PM | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2016
February 23, 2016
POLITICS: The Ted Cruz Campaign Will Win Or Lose By March 6

RS: The Ted Cruz Campaign Will Win Or Lose By March 6

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:25 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Nevada GOP Caucus Looks Like A Voter Fraud Bonanza

RS: Nevada GOP Caucus Looks Like A Voter Fraud Bonanza

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:03 PM | Politics 2016
February 22, 2016
POLITICS: 'Amnesty' Is A Majority Position With Republican Primary Voters

RS: 'Amnesty' Is A Majority Position With Republican Primary Voters

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:24 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: South Carolina By The Numbers

RS: South Carolina By The Numbers

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:23 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
February 20, 2016
POLITICS: Exit Polls From 2012, 2008 and 2000 Tell Us A Few Things About South Carolina

RS: Exit Polls From 2012, 2008 and 2000 Tell Us A Few Things About South Carolina

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:21 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
February 19, 2016
POLITICS: New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise

RS: New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:20 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
February 18, 2016
POLITICS: John Kasich's Brokered-Convention-Or-Bust Strategy

RS: John Kasich's Brokered-Convention-Or-Bust Strategy

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:19 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: The Time For Expectations Management Is Ending

RS: The Time For Expectations Management Is Ending

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:18 PM | Politics 2016
LAW: Antonin Scalia's Political Philosophy

TWS: Antonin Scalia's Political Philosophy

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:29 PM | Law 2009-16
February 17, 2016
POLITICS: Is Jeb Bush Preparing Himself to Drop Out?

NRO: Is Jeb Bush Preparing Himself to Drop Out?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:09 PM | Politics 2016
February 16, 2016
POLITICS: New South Carolina Poll From CNN: The Race For 2-3-4

RS: New South Carolina Poll From CNN: The Race For 2-3-4

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:17 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
POLITICS: A Nutty Plan To Confirm An Obama Nominee To Replace Scalia - After The Election

RS: A Nutty Plan To Confirm An Obama Nominee To Replace Scalia - After The Election

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:15 PM | Politics 2016
February 15, 2016
HISTORY/LAW/POLITICS: Closing The Book On The Silent Generation

NRO: Closing The Book On The Silent Generation

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:11 PM | History • | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2016
February 14, 2016
POLITICS: Can Any Republican Senators Afford To Go Wobbly On A Scalia Replacement? Guess Which Ones.

RS: Can Any Republican Senators Afford To Go Wobbly On A Scalia Replacement? Guess Which Ones.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:12 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Which Obama Do Republicans Want to Nominate?

NRO: Which Obama Do Republicans Want to Nominate?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:36 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS/LAW: Scalia and South Carolina

NRO: Justice Scalia, Political Philosopher and Political Football

RS: New Hampshire Primary By The Numbers

RS: Take A RedState Presidential Electability Poll!

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:31 PM | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
February 9, 2016
POLITICS: Which Obama Do Republicans Want to Nominate?

NRO: Which Obama Do Republicans Want to Nominate?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 6:03 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: New Hampshire Primary 2016

NRO: The Expectations Game, New Hampshire Primary Edition

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:30 PM | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
February 8, 2016
POLITICS: Almost New Hampshire

RS: How Big Were The Ratings For ABC's New Hampshire Debate?

NRO: John Kasich Is Not the 'Electable' Republican

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:05 PM | Politics 2016
February 6, 2016
POLITICS: New Hampshire Fight Night

NRO: The Curious Case of the Senators That Didn't Bark on Debate Night

RS: Now The Marco Rubio Spin Wars Begin

NRO: What Trump Should Try To Do Tonight

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:29 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Road to New Hampshire

RS: Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part II: Swing State Electability

RS: New Hampshire Is Very Different From Iowa

RS: Paul Ryan on President Obama: Don't Feed The Troll

RS: Hear Rush Limbaugh Call Marco Rubio A "Legitimate, Full-Throated Conservative" [AUDIO]

NRO: The Two Kinds of Presidential Primary Personality Cults

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:31 PM | Politics 2016
February 3, 2016
POLITICS: Ulrich for Mayor?

RS: Bill de Blasio May Get A Republican Challenger

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:47 AM | Politics 2016
February 2, 2016
POLITICS: Now With More National Review

As a reminder, you can follow me on Twitter @baseballcrank or bookmark these links to catch up on my latest work:

at RedState

at The Federalist

and now at National Review

Latest since my last post here:

RS: Eight Takeaways From Iowa As New Hampshire Looms

NRO: The Iowa Caucus Expectations Game: What Do the Republican Candidates Need?

RS: BREAKING: Projected Winners: Cruz & Hillary

RS: Tim Scott to Endorse Marco Rubio

RS: Media: On Today's Glenn Beck Program

RS: Iowa Establishment Quislings Backing Trump For 30 Pieces of Ethanol?

RS: Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse Responded To Donald Trump and It Was PERFECT

RS: Michael Reagan to Donald Trump: You're No Ronald Reagan

NRO: Last Night's Debate Underlines Why Congress Is a Problem for the 'Establishment' Republicans

RS: Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part I: Presidential Primaries 1948-2012

RS: Where Will The "Republican Regular" Voters Go?

RS: The Case For Marco Rubio Part II: The Salesman

RS: New Hampshire Poll: Hillary Up 17 With Women, Bernie Up 42 With Men

RS: GOP Big Money Goes After Marco Rubio

RS: ARG Polls Love John Kasich When Nobody Else Does

RS: Dear Ted Cruz, Donald Trump & Jeb Bush: Stop Trying To Extort GOP Voters Instead of Persuading Them

Posted by Baseball Crank at 5:26 PM | Politics 2016
January 17, 2016
POLITICS: Trumpian Motion

RS: Donald Trump Floats A Pro-Abortion Vice President

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:13 AM | Politics 2016
January 14, 2016
POLITICS: Rubio, Cruz, Trump

RS: Marco Rubio Is Now Getting Attacked Unfairly For Killing Charlie Crist's Climate Scheme

RS: Ted Cruz Leading Tight Iowa Race In New Gold Standard Poll

RS: The Case For Marco Rubio, Part I: Experience

RS: How A Donald Trump Nomination Would Make The GOP Consultant Class Very Rich

RS: Do Liberals Know The History Of Their Own Ideas?

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:46 AM | Politics 2016
January 4, 2016
POLITICS: End of 2015

My last two essays of 2015 were just before Christmas:

RS: Against Despair: A Christmas Credo for Republicans

RS: What Would a Rubio Win Look Like?

On to 2016.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:47 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
December 18, 2015
POLITICS: Bomb Aladdin!

RS: PPP Polls Shows Why Issue Polling Is So Unreliable

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:30 PM | Politics 2015 • | Poll Analysis
December 16, 2015
POLITICS: Fifth Debate Analysis and Boyd Strategy Essay

My longest deep dive of the year, from the theories of John Boyd: Military Strategist Explains Why Donald Trump Leads - And How He Will Fail

In the LA Times: To understand Donald Trump, look to Europe

Debate Review: The Superstars Bleed

Pick Your Favorite Lindsey Graham Face

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:55 AM | History • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
December 10, 2015
POLITICS/LAW: Up With Scalia, Down With Kasich

This Dumb, Dishonest Attack On Justice Scalia Takes The Cake

This One Statistic DESTROYS John Kasich's Presidential Campaign

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:31 PM | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
December 9, 2015
POLITICS: Latest Essays Through Dec 8, 2015

The 2016 GOP Primary Calendar Is A Challenge For Ted Cruz

8 Ways This Facebook Meme Is Wrong About Treating Guns Like Abortions

Here's The Real Republican Voter Turnout Issue In 2016 (And The Democrats' Too)

Democrat Alan Grayson Goes Full Birther on Ted Cruz

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:15 AM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 26, 2015
POLITICS: Happy Thanksgiving, 2015!

Diebold Stole My Doobies! Stoners Blame "Stolen" Election

The Myth of "4 Million Conservative Voters Stayed Home in 2012"

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:25 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 23, 2015
POLITICS: Nutty Uncle Bernie

Bernie Sanders Is Still Polling Better With Democrats Than Donald Trump Is With Republicans

Posted by Baseball Crank at 5:19 PM | Politics 2016
November 20, 2015
POLITICS: Fear and Loathing in Hillaryland

Democrats Start To Show Early Signs of Panic About 2016

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:44 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 18, 2015
POLITICS: Aging Democrats

The Democrat Bench Is Shallow And Aging

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:31 AM | Politics 2015
November 16, 2015
POLITICS: What Conservatism Is

Conservatism's Essential Element Is Experience

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:59 PM | Politics 2015
POLITICS: Jindal for President

Conservative Voters Should Give Bobby Jindal A Chance

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:54 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
November 4, 2015
BLOG/POLITICS: My Latest, 10/6/15-11/3/15

The Obama Administration Goes Big On Extraordinary Rendition

Bobby Jindal's Ambitious Tax Plan

Should House Republicans Draft Paul Ryan To Be Speaker?

Paul Ryan Uses His Leverage To Drive A Hard Bargain

Donald Trump Tries To Backtrack After Insulting Iowa Voters As Brain-Damaged Corn-Huffers

How and Why Ronald Reagan Won

Previewing The GOP Presidential Primary Calendar

Hillary Clinton Embraces Obama's Immigration Policy and Contempt for Congress

Seven Questions About Matt Bevin's Win In Kentucky

Posted by Baseball Crank at 2:07 PM | Blog 2006-16 • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
September 24, 2015
BASEBALL: RIP Yogi

Yogi Berra: Born To Squat

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:21 PM | Baseball 2012-16 • | Baseball Columns
POLITICS: Rubio on "Amnesty"

Marco Rubio on "Amnesty": Let's Take Care of Everything Else First

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:19 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
September 17, 2015
POLITICS/LAW: My Latest, 9/17/15

Syrian Refugees: Arm Them, Train Them, And Send Them Back

This Was Not A Good Debate For Jeb Bush and John Kasich

The Supreme Court Probably Isn't Done With Obamacare Litigation

Posted by Baseball Crank at 8:40 PM | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 • | War 2007-16
September 4, 2015
POLITICS/LAW: Latest Roundup

Bobby Jindal and the Easily Forgotten Lessons of Hurricane Katrina

Donald Trump Shows Why Money In Politics Is A Good Thing

Go Back To Your Day Job, Lindsey Graham

How The Supreme Court Created Kim Davis

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:44 AM | Hurricane Katrina • | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016
August 13, 2015
POLITICS: Trumpathon

My two most recent posts at RedState:

1. My quick reaction to the first debate (it seems from post-debate polling that many viewers disagreed with me about Ben Carson, who I thought had a very weak debate but who finished strong.

2. Laura Ingraham Gets Punked By Donald Trump, on the recklessness of conservative talk radio in boosting Donald Trump.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:01 PM | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 | Comments (3)
July 24, 2015
POLITICS/HISTORY: Connecticut Democrats Erase Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson From Their History

At RedState: Connecticut Democrats Erase Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson From Their History

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:29 AM | History • | Politics 2015
LAW/POLITICS: King v Burwell

I forgot to add this one the last time I updated here - I didn't get around to writing up a full analysis of the King v Burwell decision and its many glaring flaws, but I did put together a Storify essay from my Tweets.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:21 AM | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2015
July 10, 2015
BLOG: Welcome Back, Blog!

I've been neglecting this blog rather badly for altogether too long - the archives say I haven't posted here since September 21, 2014. I've been busy in the interim on Twitter, of course, and publishing elsewhere. I probably need to post archived versions of some of those posts here. For now: links.

I will start with The Weekly Standard, where I have this issue's cover story, just posted today: Giving Thomas His Due, on Justice Thomas' opinions over the past year and what they tell us about his philosophy.

The Federalist

Then there's The Federalist, where I tend to post my longer essays these days. I ran a lengthy 5-part essay prior to the Obergefell decision, "Can Gays And Christians Coexist In America?". Part I looked at the Biblical reasons why Christians believe in one-man-one-woman-for-life marriage. Part II looked at the history of Catholicism and other Biblical Christianity in the battles over slavery and Jim Crow. Part III looked at the Christian concept of scandal and the battle between liberty-based and equality-based views of "LGBT rights." Part IV looked at the legal arguments over the rational basis for distinguishing between opposite-sex and same-sex marriage. And Part V traced possible ways forward for coexistence post-Obergefell, which admittedly are not looking especially promising at the moment.

The First Principle Of U.S. Foreign Policy looked at various approaches to our foreign policy.

Others from the fall, including some of my poll-analysis posts:

The Ferguson Riots Are Nothing Like The Original Tea Party Protests

Polling Postmortem: The Best And Worst Senate Polls Of 2014 (I keep meaning to run the companion piece on the Governors races before 2016 polling heats up).

Do Democrats Always Win Close Statewide Elections? (covers the 1998-2013 elections; I should update this with 2014 results).

Listening To President Obama's Ebola Advice Could Get People Killed

And of course, if you missed it last time, my essay on how History Is Not On The Democrats' Side In 2016 is still an important read on the coming election, undoubtedly the most significant piece I will write on the 2016 election.

RedState

The Rise & Fall of the Confederate Flag in South Carolina - I wrote this a few weeks back, but it's very relevant to today's news.

Reading Tea Leaves on the 2015 Supreme Court Term - Basically just some educated speculation on who would write what and when, which ended up having mixed results.

Democratic Party Now Literally Selling Hate - a Father's Day gift post!

Bernie Sanders, Deodorant and Diversity - a meditation on central planning and markets.

Marco Rubio Recounts The History of Obama’s Treatment of Israel - quick hit on a great Rubio floor speech. Rubio isn't my first choice in 2016, but he's done nothing but impress this year.

From the fall:

2014 and Republican Morale - a GOP victory lap and a reflection on what it meant.

The Breakers Broke: A Look Back At The Fall 2014 Polls - A personal victory lap on my 2014 poll analysis and how it relates to the polling controversies of 2012.

The 2014 Polls And The 2012 Exit Polls - An earlier look at the same topic and at some specific issues with exit polling and poll methodology.

Nobody at Vox.com Has Read The Fourteenth Amendment

BREAKING: Supreme Court Takes Obamacare Subsidies Case (on King v Burwell).

First Cut: 7 Polling and Elections Lessons From 2014 (Immediate 2014 election aftermath)

Why I Voted Yes On Question 1 (NY) (Election Day post on a NY ballot initiative)

Final Senate Breakers & Governors Breakers Report November 3, 2014

Senate Breakers Report October 30, 2014

Governors Breakers Report October 30, 2014

A Sad and Desperate Attack on Chris Christie - Actually a fairly deep dive on voter fraud controversies.

Governors Breakers Report October 22, 2014

Senate Breakers Report October 21, 2014

Senate and Governors Breakers Report October 10, 2014

Senate Breakers Report and Governors Breakers Report: Oct 1

Introducing The Senate Breakers Report - September 26, 2014, the start of my Fall 2014 stretch drive when I started getting too busy to cross-post here.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:22 PM | Blog 2006-16 • | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2014 • | Politics 2015 • | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis
September 21, 2014
POLITICS: Bobby Jindal's Energy Plan

My latest at RedState.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 9:07 PM | Politics 2016
POLITICS: Better Call Paul

My latest at RedState.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:22 PM | Politics 2014
September 20, 2014
POLITICS: Mary, Mary

My latest at RedState, on Mary Burke's "plagiarism" scandal and why it matters.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:40 AM | Politics 2014
September 19, 2014
BLOG: RedState and Federalist Roundup

I owe longtime readers here some explanation and apology - my work at both RedState and The Federalist is now exclusive, at least when first published, to those sites, and while I post links on Twitter and Facebook, I tend to forget sometimes to post links back here at the old stomping grounds. (I may well close the comments section here too soon, since the lack of activity means a high spam-to-real-comments ratio, and since most regular commenters by now know how to find me elsewhere).

Here's my most recent posts over the past month, all of them on matters of politics and/or history:

RedState:

Ferguson, Missouri and the Fog of Partisanship and Ideology

93% of Democratic Senate or Governor Candidates Are White

Where I Was On September 11 (a repost of the annual remembrance)

Is The Democratic Party Proud of its History of Slavery & Segregation?

Mid-September Polls Are Not The Last Word On Senate Races

The Federalist:

History Is Not On The Democrats' Side In 2016

Presidential Battleground States: A History

Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:28 PM | Blog 2006-16 • | History • | Politics 2014 • | Politics 2016 • | Poll Analysis | Comments (1)
September 15, 2014
POLITICS: Mid-September Polls Are Not The Last Word On Senate Races

A Snapshot, Not A Verdict: Will A Wave Still Swamp More Democrats?

The perennial question about election polls is back again, if ever it left: how far can we trust them? Should we disregard all other evidence but what the current polling of individual Senate races tells us - which is, at this writing, that if the election was held today, Republicans would gain 6 seats in the Senate to hold a narrow 51-48 majority? As usual, a little historical perspective is in order. It is mid-September, with just over seven weeks to Election Day, and as discussed below, all the fundamental signs show that this is at least a mild Republican "wave" year. A review of the mid-September polls over the last six Senate election cycles, all of which ended in at least a mild "wave" for one party, shows that it is common for the "wave party" to win a few races in which it trailed in mid-September - sometimes more than a few races, and sometimes races in which there appeared to be substantial leads, and most frequently against the other party's incumbents. Whereas it is very uncommon for the wave party to lose a polling lead, even a slim one, after mid-September - it has happened only three times, one of those was a tied race rather than a lead, and another involved the non-wave party replacing its candidate on the ballot with a better candidate. If these historical patterns hold in 2014, we would therefore expect Republicans to win all the races in which they currently lead plus two to four races in which they are currently behind, netting a gain of 8 to 10 Senate seats.

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:00 PM | Politics 2014 • | Poll Analysis
August 12, 2014
POP CULTURE: Robin Williams, Suicide, Depression, and Evil Spirits

My latest at RedState.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 10:20 PM | Pop Culture • | Religion
August 8, 2014
POLITICS/LAW: Recent Posts Roundup

Now that my posts are single-sourced to RedState and The Federalist (for Google/traffic reasons), I've been forgetting to link to them all here. A roundup of my latest:

At RedState:

Halbig's Critics Hoist By Their Own Petards

Obama Peddles Impeachment Conspiracy Theories To Raise Money

John McCain on the Decline & Fall of the United States Senate

Josh Marshall & TPM Promise a "BOOM," Deliver A Dud

Obama Administration Lied About Insurance Company Bailouts

At the Federalist, a cross-posted version of the Obamacare bailouts piece.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 4:05 PM | Blog 2006-16 • | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2014 • | Politics 2015
July 22, 2014
POLITICS/BUSINESS: Latest Posts

More of my latest posts, off the site. At RedState:

DC Circuit Blocks Obamacare Subsidies, Mandate in 36 States (updated with the Fourth Circuit's decision)

Could Elizabeth Warren Face Ted Cruz In 2016?

8 Myths In The Immigration Debate

At The Federalist:

17 Ways Driverless Cars Could Change America

Posted by Baseball Crank at 2:52 PM | Business • | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2014 • | Politics 2016
July 18, 2014
POLITICS: Could Elizabeth Warren Face Ted Cruz In 2016?

Similar, But Not The Same

Should the Democrats nominate Elizabeth Warren for President in 2016, as a draft-Warren movement, some liberal pundits and enthusiasts at this week's Netroots Nation convention believe?

Should Republicans nominate Ted Cruz, who has kept his options open with frequent trips to Iowa and New Hampshire? In some ways, Cruz and Warren are mirror images, and the cases for and against them are surprisingly similar. But there are also some critical differences.

Read More »


Posted by Baseball Crank at 3:38 PM | Politics 2014 • | Politics 2016
July 15, 2014
POLITICS: 8 Myths In The Immigration Debate

Stop Saying That. It's Not True.

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The ongoing debate over immigration, and over illegal immigration in particular, is one of the most acrimonious - usually needlessly so - in our politics. It divides both parties, though it's no secret that the divisions within the GOP on this issue are far worse. And all sides in this debate are guilty of peddling myths and rhetoric that do more harm to the debate than good.

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Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:03 PM | Politics 2014
June 30, 2014
HISTORY/WAR: Enduring Lessons From The Diplomatic Crisis of July 1914

My latest at The Federalist, which also has fairly extensive coverage of today's Hobby Lobby decision.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 1:11 PM | History • | War 2007-16
June 26, 2014
POLITICS: Waiting For The Wave: The 2014 Senate Map

2014 SEN RCP 6 26 14

The polling tells us that the bulk of 2014's contested Senate races are basically dogfights. So why are so many Republicans optimistic? Because it's still June, and some of the elements of the dynamics of 2014 may not be fully baked into the polling yet. How good a year this is for the GOP will depend on those factors.

If you look at the chart at the top of this post, what you pretty clearly can see from the data is that the Senate races right now seem to be sorted into three general groups (although in each group I'm including one race that is less favorable for the GOP than the rest).

Group One, three currently Democrat-held seats in deep-red territory without real incumbents, is the likely GOP blowouts. Montana and South Dakota are both looking locked up, and the South Dakota polling may get even uglier for the Democrats if the third-party support for Larry Pressler (a former Republican Senator running as an independent) fades. West Virginia is closer, close enough that a giant gaffe or scandal or something could put it back on the table, and in a different year or state a 10-point lead would not look insurmountable. But it's hard to see where that support comes from, in a 2014 midterm in West Virginia.

Group Two is the tossups, nine states that are really too close to call right now. Seven of the nine are Democrat-held seats, five with incumbents (Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana and North Carolina) and two open seats (Iowa and Michgigan). One of the two GOP-held seats has an incumbent (Kentucky), the other is open (Georgia). The Democrats have settled on candidates in all nine, Republicans still have a primary in Alaska (the poll average here is the matchup of frontrunner Dan Sullivan against incumbent Mark Begich), a runoff in Georgia (the poll average here is the matchup of frontrunner Jack Kingston against Democrat nominee Michelle Nunn), and a "jungle primary" that will probably result in a December runoff in Louisiana (the poll average here is the runoff matchup of frontrunner Bill Cassidy against incumbent Mary Landrieu). In only one of these races, in Michigan, does the current leader have a 5-point lead; in five of the nine races the frontrunner is below 45%, and in eight of the nine (all but Cassidy in Louisiana) below 46%. While a 2 or 3-point lead in the polls in October may be meaningful, a race with a lead that size in June and 10-20 percent undecided is functionally a tossup, at least until you take into consideration the various factors (national environment, state electorate) that are likely to pull the race in one direction or another as we enter the fall.

Why do Republican analysts feel so optimistic? Because polls, as we recall from 2010 and 2012, are only as good as their ability to project who will turn out and vote, and we are probably still a few months from pollsters being able to really make accurate assessments of what the fall electorate will look like. As Sam Wang, Ph.D., has noted, the various models for predicting how the Senate races will go are predicting different things depending on the extent to which they look beyond the polls to incorporate predictive elements like the economy, the effect of incumbency, the President's approval rating, and the like. Sean Trende, here and here, offered a model based mainly on Obama's approval rating, and found even after some tweaks to incorporate a few other variables, that Democrats could be projected to face double-digit Senate seat losses if the President's approval rating was 43% or lower on Election Day.

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That's just one way of skinning this cat, but right now, Obama's approval sits at 41.5 approval/53.9 disapproval, and has been trending rather sharply downward for the past month, with his approval on the economy, foreign policy and healthcare all consistently worse than his overall approval rating. (Via Ace, it's even worse in the battleground states). In that national environment, with midterm elections in general tending to produce Republican-leaning electorates, and with the historic poor performance of second-term presidents in sixth-year midterms, you really have to feel pretty good about GOP chances of winning most of those nine races. That may seem improbable, but there were basically seven Senate races that went to the wire or involved potentially big Democratic upsets in 2012 - Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Massachusetts, Indiana, and Missouri - and I didn't think at the time they would run the table and win all seven. They did. In a few of those, like Virginia and Wisconsin, the Senate races tracked almost precisely the outcome in the Presidential race, meaning turnout from the top of the ticket was decisive. If the national environment really does show as sour across the board for Democrats in November as it looks from today, eight-for-nine or nine-for-nine could be a possibility. If the environment (including the parties' turnout operations) swings back to a more neutral one, I'd be looking more at the GOP winning five of the nine, which would net a six-seat overall gain in the Senate, enough for control of the chamber but by a very narrow margin that might not last beyond 2016.

For now, that's still a big if, not reflected in polls showing voters not really ready to commit to either side in most of those races. It's why Republicans are waiting for the wave. But it's also a reminder that those races won't win themselves - Democrats ran the table in 2012 by fighting all the way to the whistle in every race with every resource they had. One thing helping the GOP may be the Governor's races: for example, Rick Snyder is now comfortably ahead in the polls in Michigan, and the Colorado GOP dodged a repeat of the 2010 trainwreck by picking Bob Beauprez over Tom Tancredo; Beauprez may not beat John Hickenlooper, but he'll give him a tough race without Tancredo's divisiveness.

Finally, there's Group Three, the races in which the polling shows the Democrats safe for now - but, depending on the national environment, maybe not safe enough just yet to declare those races over. Incumbents Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Al Franken in Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire all have leads around 10 points, and Mark Warner in Virginia has a sixteen-point lead on Ed Gillespie. (It's also always possible some other races could come on the board; there hasn't been much in the way of general election polling in Mississippi or New Mexico, for example. But we'll have to wait and see). But none of them are regularly polling above 50%, the usual rule of thumb for a safe incumbent.

Realistically, those are "reach" races that only go on the board if things really get ugly for the Democrats. Oregon is, I would guess, the best hope for the GOP relative to its present polling given the Cover Oregon fiasco, New Hampshire the toughest of the OR-MN-NH trio due to Shaheen's personal popularity and the likelihood of a landslide win for the Democrats in the Governor's race (the other two will have tight GOV races). Also, Al Franken has a huge warchest, so his race with self-funder Mike McFadden could get ugly and expensive. Virginia, of course, is the longest reach, but Gillespie should be sufficiently well-funded and anodyne to take advantage if Warner slides into the neighborhood of actually being vulnerable.

Predictions? Anybody who's predicting the fall elections in June with too much certainty is nuts. But right now, Republicans have a lot of opportunities in the Senate. If Obama's approval rating keeps tanking, the GOP avoids any major campaign-killing gaffes, and the Democrats don't come up with a magic turnout bullet, the swing in the Senate could be bigger than anyone is realistically talking about right now. Don't count your chickens; this is just the optimistic scenario. But it is not, from the vantage point of late June, an unrealistic one.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 2:07 PM | Politics 2014 • | Poll Analysis
LAW: A Good Day For The Rule of Law

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It is not the job of the court system to tell us what is right, or just; to make policy for us or govern our lives. But it is the job of the court system to police the basic rules of the road that keep our various elected officials, administrative agencies and lower courts from exceeding the powers the People, in the Constitution and laws, have entrusted to them. And today was a good day for the rule of law and a bad one for abuses of power:

1. The Supreme Court held 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Breyer, that President Obama abused his recess appointment power by unilaterally appointing members of the NLRB withouut asking the Senate. The Court split 5-4 on exactly how broad the recess-appointments power is, but all agreed that the President cannot just unilaterally claim that the Senate is in recess (for purposes of bypassing it) when the Senate itself (even Harry Reid) says that it is not in recess. That renders many of the NLRB's acts over a period of years invalid (although proper appointments were eventually made). So much for Obama's vaunted status as a Constitutional scholar; even his own appointees didn't buy his nonsense.

Justice Breyer left some wiggle room, however, for future debates over exactly when the Senate is recessed:

Canning 1

Justice Scalia, joined by Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Thomas and Alito, would have gone further in scaling back the recess power. Scalia reminds us of a favorite point of his, that separation of powers is the true backbone of Constitutional liberty:

Canning 2

2. The Court also held, in a 9-0 loss for Martha Coakley (now running for Governor of Massachusetts) that Massachusetts abused its power under the First Amendment by a blanket ban on protests within 35 feet of an abortion clinic. As Chief Justice Roberts observed, this ban was so draconian that it prevented women entering the clinic from being exposed to peaceable forms of persuasion:

Petitioners are not protestors. They seek not merely to express their opposition to abo­rtion, but to inform women of various alternatives and to provide help in pursuing them. Petitioners believe that they can accomplish this objective only through personal, caring, consensual conversations. And for good reason: It is easier to ignore a strained voice or a waving hand than a direct greeting or an outstretched arm....Respondents point us to no evidence that individuals regularly gather at other clinics, or at other times in Boston, in sufficiently large groups to obstruct access. For a problem shown to arise only once a week in one city at one clinic, creating 35-foot buffer zones at every clinic across the Common­wealth is hardly a narrowly tailored solution.

Justice Scalia would again have gone further, noting evidence that the buffer zones were deliberately intended to discriminate against pro-life viewpoints:

This is an opinion that has Something for Everyone, and the more significant portion continues the onward march of abortion-speech-only jurisprudence.

3. Meanwhile, the New York Court of Appeals, the state's highest court, by a 6-1 vote struck down former Mayor Mike Bloomberg's Big Soda ban in a challenge brought by the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. The court concluded that the agency that passed the ban was not entitled to create policy-making legislation (a common feature as well of President Obama's agencies). A few key excerpts explain why unelected executive agencies (like courts) should not set policy:

Soda 1

Soda 2

Indeed. A good day for a government of laws, not of men.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 11:01 AM | Law 2009-16
June 5, 2014
WAR/POLITICS: Yes, It Matters That Bowe Bergdahl Deserted

bad deal indy

Does it matter whether Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl was a deserter, or worse, a traitor? In evaluating President Obama's decision to trade five high-ranking Taliban terrorists for Bergdahl, it absolutely does.

Given the public-relations fiasco around the Bergdahl deal, liberal commentators are circling the wagons. Their latest argument, designed to compartmentalize the pieces of the controversy so they can't be considered as a whole, is that the President's calculation of what it was worth giving up to get Bergdahl back should not have taken consideration of the facts of Bergdahl's conduct and disappearance, specifically his abandonment of his comrades and mission under circumstances suggesting a deeper betrayal than simple desertion. This argument (which is summarized here by Brian Beutler at the New Republic, although it's been coming from people all over the left side of the commentariat the past two days), goes more or less like this:

1) Either you believe the military should have an ethos of "leave no man behind," or you do not.

2) Either you believe deserters should be court-martialed, or you do not.

3) You can't have a court martial until you've brought Bergdahl back.

4) If you believe in 1) and 2), you should want Bergdahl back first before deciding if he deserted, which is a matter for the court martial system, and he is presumed innocent until then.

As Beutler put it on Twitter, "this standard of rendering verdicts against POWs while they're in captivity and using them to oppose rescue is disgusting."

There are two related problems with this syllogism that illustrate its dependence on simple-minded sloganeering in lieu of sober judgments of reality. First, it confuses purely military decisions with major national security decisions. For soldiers, "leave no man behind" is more than a slogan - it's part of the deep ethos of military service, the knowledge that your comrades have your back even if you get lost or wounded or just screw up. It's the second-highest value the military has, and it's why commanders won't think twice about rescue missions that may put the lives of more soldiers at risk than those that are being rescued. Of course, there's a fair amount of bitterness at Bergdahl's desertion - his decision to leave everyone behind - among his former Army comrades and especially those who lost loved ones trying to get him back. But nobody really argues the point that the military should make efforts like that to get guys like him back.

But an exchange of high-value detainees is not a purely military decision. It's a national-security decision of precisely the type that has always been reserved, not to military men according to their military code, but to the elected civilian political leadership that makes the really big decisions with an eye beyond today's battlefields to the greater interests of the nation. After all, the military's highest value, even higher than its commitment to the lives of its men and women in uniform, is the mission itself - and it's the civilian leadership that sets the mission and chooses what sacrifices we ask of them. There are serious downsides to making ransom deals with terrorists, including setting dangerous men free and setting bad precedents and incentives for the future. Even President Obama had to admit that we could live to regret this deal in terrible ways:

"Is there a possibility of some of them trying to return to activities that are detrimental to us? Absolutely," Obama told a news conference in Warsaw.

"That's been true of all the prisoners that were released from Guantanamo. There's a certain recidivism rate that takes place."

The existence of downsides, even grave ones, may not convince us to adopt an absolute rule against deals with terrorists; national security decisions often involve a choice among lesser evils, and if your foreign policy can be summarized on a bumper sticker, you will probably get in a lot of accidents. But they illustrate why the pros and cons and competing values need to be weighed carefully, rather than letting one motto ("leave no man behind") or another ("we don't negotiate with terrorists") do our thinking for us. Our principles, as always, must remain a compass, not a straitjacket. And once you concede that the decision involved weighing competing values rather than blindly following a single overriding rule, you have to take consideration of the fact that - while of course we all wanted Bergdahl back - retrieving him was not as compelling a value as retrieving a soldier who did his duty as best he could and unquestionably remained loyal to his country.

Which brings me to the second problem with the syllogism being proposed: that it asks the President of the United States to make vital national security decisions while wearing lawyer-imposed blinders as to the facts. Yes, as a legal matter under U.S. criminal law and the Uniform Code of Military Justice, Sergeant Bergdahl is innocent until proven guilty of desertion or any graver misconduct. But every day of the week, every hour of the day, Presidents make decisions on matters large and small, in the national security area and other areas, affecting the lives of many people, based on facts that have not been litigated in court. The idea that the facts of Bergdahl's disappearance could simply be wished away or pretended not to exist, simply because no court-martial had been convened, is ridiculous and juvenile. It's not as if we could get the five Taliban back if we tried Bergdahl and found him guilty, after all. Presidents make decisions based on the best information they have. Sometimes, that information doesn't come from sources that conform to the legal rules of evidence, or from sources that could ever be disclosed in a courtroom. And sometimes, facts come out later that show that the President was misinformed - but those facts arrive too late for a decision to be made. These are the adult realities of the Presidency, and only an appallingly misguided legalism can lead President Obama's own supporters, in the sixth year of his presidency, to remain blind to it.

The military owed Bowe Bergdahl its promise to try to rescue him, even if he walked away. The nation did not owe him an agreement to compromise national security by surrendering five high-value prisoners without asking what we were getting in return.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 5:00 PM | Politics 2014 • | War 2007-16 | Comments (9)
May 28, 2014
POLITICS/LAW: Interstate Commerce and Interstate Sales of Health Insurance

My latest essay at The Federalist.

Posted by Baseball Crank at 12:58 PM | Law 2009-16 • | Politics 2014
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