Bush leads 54-40 in a Gallup poll due out this morning, raising further questions about the sometimes wide variance in polling. Still, I’d be surprised if many presidential candidates have won after trailing by double digits in a Gallup poll as late as the middle of September. The electoral math is getting grim for Kerry; if Bush wins Florida and Ohio, it’s very hard for Kerry to win, and Bush is looking stronger in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which would really lock down the electoral college.
But don’t get cocky; Dales still sees a lot of states in play.
One thought on “54-40, or Fight?”
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The WSJ had a piece yesterday about Colorado’s ballot question to split the state’s electoral college votes. If passed, it would take effect this year.
Kerry is not likely to take the state, but if the votes were split (Maine and Nebraska already split their votes), Kerry would definitely get some votes there.
The bigger issue is that this very easily could set off a trend nationwide to re-vamp how we elect a president.
I do not think we know how to do this any better than the founding fathers. And in school we teach that elections are not popularity contests. So, why tie the election directly to the popular vote?