Quick Prediction

Lots of interesting issues to address for tonight’s debate, but I’ll just make a prediction on one. A key issue of tone for Kerry is whether to try to look presidential and be likeable, and thus temper his attacks on Bush in favor of trying to lay out his own vision, or whether to play to his natural strength as a debater – the strength that forged his reputation as a “good closer” – and go mercilessly on the attack, questioning Bush’s truthfulness and trying to bait Bush.
My prediction: the latter. Several reasons: (1) Bob Dole, who shares some of Kerry’s strengths and weaknesses as a presidential candidate, tried the former approach in 1996, to no effect (as Kerry’s Clinton-era staffers will recall); (2) Kerry has been on the attack in recent speeches, to say nothing of his spokespeople; (3) Kerry’s base wants it (to the point where some people have been pining for Howard Beale Dean lately), and may need to hear some of the old 1971 anti-war passion from Kerry to perk up morale and get out the down-ticket vote.
I’m not saying this is necessarily the wisest strategy. But it will feel good, and stands a chance of breaking the race’s momentum (or, alternatively, burying Kerry entirely). I predict that Kerry decides that he’s been too cautious for too long, throws caution to the wind, and turns his rhetorical boat into the fire, coming out swinging as the man Kerry obviously believes he really is.
Stay tuned. The fireworks could be fun to watch.